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Judith Curry Arctic ice melt paper

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  • Tim Jones
    Roger Pielke writes: Humans do affect the climate system, and it is indeed important to take action on energy policy-but to connect energy policy and
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 16, 2012
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      Roger Pielke writes:
      "Humans do affect the climate system, and it is indeed important to
      take action on energy policy-but to connect energy policy and
      disasters makes little scientific or policy sense. There are no signs
      that human caused climate change has increased the toll of recent
      disasters, as even the most recent extreme event report of the
      Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finds."

      This is wrong. I just posted the peer reviewed report:
      http://www.lasg.ac.cn/UpLoadFiles/File/papers/2012/2012-pnas.jiping%20liu.pdf
      Where Judith Curry et al point out the effects of Arctic ice melt on
      wind patterns.


      Everywhere in the IPCC report Pielke refers to the IPCC associates
      climate change and extreme weather events and disasters. Though
      Pielke could be privy to something new, he apparently refers to the
      IPCC report predicated by this press release dated March 28, 2012.
      To wit:
      PRESS RELEASE
      IPCC releases full report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
      Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
      http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/IPCC_Press_Release_SREX.pdf

      Geneva, 28 March 2012 - Evidence suggests that climate change has led
      to changes in climate extremes such as heat waves, record high
      temperatures and, in many regions, heavy precipitation in the past
      half century, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said
      today.

      Climate extremes, or even a series of non-extreme events, in
      combination with social vulnerabilities and exposure to risks can
      produce climate-related disasters, the IPCC said in its Special
      Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to
      Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX).

      While some extreme weather and climate events lead to disasters,
      others do not. Policies to avoid, prepare for, respond to and recover
      from the risks of disaster can reduce the impact of these events and
      increase the resilience of people exposed to extreme events, the IPCC
      shows in the report, published on Wednesday

      At the same time, as the IPCC notes in the report, limits to
      resilience are faced when thresholds or tipping points associated
      with social and/or natural systems are exceeded, posing severe
      challenges for adaptation.

      "The main message from the report is that we know enough to make good
      decisions about managing the risks of climate-related disasters.
      Sometimes we take advantage of this knowledge, but many times we do
      not," said Chris Field, Co-Chair of IPCC's Working Group II, which
      together with Working Group I produced the report. "The challenge for
      the future has one dimension focused on improving the knowledge base
      and one on empowering good decisions, even for those situations where
      there is lots of uncertainty," he said.

      The IPCC released the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the report in
      November 2011. The full report released today provides the basis for
      the key conclusions first presented in the SPM. It offers a greater
      understanding of the human and economic costs of disasters and the
      physical and social patterns that cause them. It enables
      policy-makers to delve into the detailed information behind the
      findings to examine the material on which the IPCC based its
      assessments.

      [...]


      Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) is the latest), Technical
      Papers, Methodologies and other key documents. Together these have
      become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.

      Special Report - Summary for Policymakers
      http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-SPMbrochure_FINAL.pdf
      --
      <http://earthlightimagery.com/>
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