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Re: [C/A] Extreme weather will be 21st-century norm

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  • Tim Jones
    Jean Laherrere pointed out and I confirmed that Noah Diffenbaugh has used the 2001 IPCC TAR SRES as the energy consumption model generating CO2 levels and
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 1, 2005
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      Jean Laherrere pointed out and I confirmed that Noah Diffenbaugh has
      used the 2001 IPCC TAR SRES as the energy consumption model
      generating CO2 levels and consequently the levels of rising temperatures
      for the 21st century.
      Seems to me there should be closer coordination between climate change
      and peak oil scientists to arrive at a greater consensus regarding these
      dual threats to the future.


      At 11:59 AM +0000 11/1/05, Pat N self only wrote:
      >Extreme weather will be 21st-century norm
      >Tuesday, November 01, 2005
      >Star-Ledger Staff
      >Extreme temperatures. Drenching rain.
      >It's all coming this century.
      >The forecasts are being produced courtesy of what is being billed
      >as "the most comprehensive climate model to date of the continental
      >U.S." The climate model, a mathematical representation of reality
      >that projects weather trends, was created by scientists at Purdue
      >The vast computer program takes into consideration factors that have
      >been ignored or given short shrift before -- such as the effects of
      >snow reflecting solar energy back into space and the consequences of
      >high mountain ranges blocking weather fronts traveling across them --
      >according to Noah Diffenbaugh, the team's lead scientist.
      >A more powerful computer and a better understanding of these facts
      >allowed the team to generate a far more clear image of what weather
      >citizens can expect to encounter over the next 100 years, he said.
      >"This is the most detailed projection of climate change that we have
      >for the U.S.," Diffenbaugh said. "And the changes our climate model
      >predicts are large enough to substantially disrupt our economy and
      >Some of these projections are:
      >In the northeastern U.S. -- the region east of Illinois and north of
      >Kentucky -- summers will be longer and hotter. "Imagine the weather
      >during the hottest two weeks of the year," Diffenbaugh said. "The
      >area could experience temperatures in that range lasting for periods
      >up to two months by century's end."
      >The desert Southwest will experience more heat waves of greater
      >intensity, combined with less summer precipitation.
      >The Gulf Coast will be hotter and will receive its precipitation in
      >greater volumes over shorter time periods.
      >The continental U.S. will experience an overall warming trend.
      >Temperatures now experienced during the two coldest weeks of the year
      >will be a thing of the past. Winter's length will diminish, as well.
      >Climate models are sophisticated computer codes that attempt to
      >include as many details as possible about the complex workings of the
      >environment. Hundreds of dynamic processes, such as ocean currents,
      >cloud formations, vegetation cover and -- of particular import -- the
      >increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases are programmed into the
      >computers. The machines then attempt to calculate the effects on
      >square-shaped plots of land that represent small pieces of the
      >earth's surface. The smaller these squares are, the finer
      >the "picture."
      >"The study is the latest and most detailed simulation of climatic
      >change in the United States," said Stephen Schneider, a climate
      >expert at Stanford University in California.
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