Trends to 2030
Below is the beginning of and link to a NYT article about a new U.S. intelligence analysis of how rapidly and profoundly the world’s socio-politico-economic system is changing with a picture of what it could look like by 2030. It factors in the confluence of dynamic global shifts in demographics, economics, climate change, the rising power of people vis-à-vis central governments, and more.
And they tout my old Peace Corps post of Nigeria as one of the up and coming world economic leaders!
Overall, they say it’s a balance of optimism and pessimism, but I see it as far more hopeful than scary.
“...peace is the wholeness created by right relationships with oneself, other persons, other cultures, other life, Earth, and the larger whole of which all are a part.” ~Earth Charter
... supporting, advancing, and nurturing cultures of peace through peacelearning toward the development of the full spectrum of the peacebuilder in everyone – inner and outer, personal and professional; and the development of peace systems – local to global.
...an evolutionary perspective on these revolutionary times.
Study Predicts Future for U.S. as No. 2 Economy, but Energy Independent
By THOM SHANKER
Published: December 10, 2012 111 Comments
WASHINGTON — A new intelligence assessment of global trends projects that China will outstrip the United States as the leading economic power before 2030, but that America will remain an indispensable world leader, bolstered in part by an era of energy independence.
Russia’s clout will wane, as will the economic strength of other countries reliant on oil for revenues, the assessment says.
“There will not be any hegemonic power,” the 166-page report says. “Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multi-polar world.”
The product of four years of intelligence-gathering and analysis, the study, by the National Intelligence Council, presents grounds for optimism and pessimism in nearly equal measure. The council reports to the director of national intelligence and has responsibilities for long-term strategic analysis.
One remarkable development it anticipates is a spreading affluence that leads to a larger global middle class that is better educated and has wider access to health care and communications technologies like the Internet and smart phones. “The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift,” the study says, adding that billions of people will gain new individual power as they climb out of poverty. “For the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world.”
At the same time, it warns, half of the world’s population will probably be living in areas that suffer from severe shortages of fresh water, meaning that management of natural resources will be a crucial component of global national security efforts.