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Boris drives a Morris? What will the New Mayor do to New London

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  • Lee Schipper
    I have read the election results. What does it portend for London s transport and environmental systems? Lee Schipper Visiting Scholar, Univ of Calif Transport
    Message 1 of 5 , May 3, 2008
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      I have read the election results. What does it portend for London’s transport and environmental systems?

       

      Lee Schipper

      Visiting Scholar,

      Univ of Calif Transport Center

      Berkeley CA

      www.uctc.net

      skype: mrmeter

      Office: 510 642 6889

      Cell: 202 262 7476

       

    • Todd Edelman, Green Idea Factory
      Here are two pieces from the UK Guardian plus something from the Back Boris campaign: Johnson promises less stick, more carrot for London commuters
      Message 2 of 5 , May 3, 2008
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        Here are two pieces from the UK Guardian plus something from the Back
        Boris campaign:

        Johnson promises 'less stick, more carrot' for London commuters
        <http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/mar/03/boris.transport>

        Enter the jester (the 4th paragraph talks about the exiting
        Livingstone... it reminds me of the situation in Bogota where
        leader-heavy change might be rolled back)
        <http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/john_harris/2008/05/enter_the_jester.html>

        Back Boris website - Transport (there is also a link to a video on his
        vision for cycling but I could not get it to work...)
        <http://www.backboris.com/policy/transport/index.php>

        ***

        One thing he says about congestion charging is interesting -- about one
        entry and multiple entries in the same day costing the same. But it
        seems to me that if congestion charging is weakened it will counteract
        his plan for cycling improvements, among other things.

        - T

        p.s. <http://www.spiked-online.com/images/boris_on_bicycle.jpg>


        Lee Schipper wrote:
        >
        > I have read the election results. What does it portend for London’s
        > transport and environmental systems?
        >
        > Lee Schipper
        >
        > Visiting Scholar,
        >
        > Univ of Calif Transport Center
        >
        > Berkeley CA
        >
        > www.uctc.net
        >
        > skype: mrmeter
        >
        > Office: 510 642 6889
        >
        > Cell: 202 262 7476
        >
        >


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        Green Idea Factory

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        Skype: toddedelman
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        Green Idea Factory is a member of World Carfree Network
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        CAR is over. If you WANT it.
      • Andrew Curry
        Dear Lee, Responding as a London voter, your question is quite a complicated one. There are a few clues, though: 1. On environmental policy, the Conservatives
        Message 3 of 5 , May 5, 2008
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          Dear Lee,

          Responding as a London voter, your question is quite a complicated one. There are a few clues, though:

          1. On environmental policy, the Conservatives nationally have been trying to position themselves as a party which is concerned about environmental issues, even if these shoes aren't always a comfortable fit for them. So - to the extent that the party leadership has influence, they will try to make sure that Boris Johnson doesn't blow a big hole in this.

          2. On transport and on the congestion charge, I think the story will be more complicated. Generally, Conservatives don't realise that transport restrictions are popular with quite a lot of voters (especially where they improve the quality of life). We had an interesting example of this locally in my London borough after the Conservatives won power. They proposed to remove the speed cushions in my local area (while assuring us that the 20mph limit would stay) and were a bit shocked at the mobilisation this created locally.

          The congestion charge has reduced traffic levels in the centre, although these have - from memory - crept up again (probably suggesting that they are not expensive enough). My guess is that the congestion charge iwill stay in the core area; that Livingstone's plans to increase the charge for high pollution/large engined vehicles will be scrapped (although research by the company I work for suggests that nationally there are surprisingly high levels of hostility to 4x4 (SUV) vehicles; and that they may or may not remove the 'western extension' of the charge zone into Kensington and Chelsea (plus; it appears to have been effective in removing congestion in most of the main roads which run through the area without increasing rat-running:  minus; K&C is a Conservative council which has consistently opposed the extension, and they may - good old-fashioned politics - scrap it as a 'sweety' for their supporters. But all of this is also inflected by the environmental aspirations nationally.

          3. Transport for London is a pretty effective urban transport manager with an increasing reputation for competence. (The introduction of the Oyster card has been a success; it's the only part of the country where bus passenger numbers are increasing; it gained control of one of the less successful London overground rail networks recently in competition for the franchise). Part of that reputation comes from the fact that it has a pretty good grasp of the complexity of urban transport issues. I suspect that some of the incoming Mayor's new ideas will be piloted somewhere and then quietly dropped after the pilot scheme fails to produce the desired results. And we'll see one or two high-profile but low-impact decisions implemented, such as the removal of the 'bendy buses' from service.

          4. Also worth noting that the London Assembly is elected by a system with some proportional element in it, and the Mayor doesn't have a majority; to some degree he has to rule consensually. (Cons 11, Lab 8, Liberal, 3, Green, 2, BNP, 1). The Liberals and Greens have fairly strong environmental agendas; the BNP is a far-right party and doesn't).

          Andrew      



          2008/5/3 Lee Schipper <SCHIPPER@...>:

          I have read the election results. What does it portend for London's transport and environmental systems?

           

          Lee Schipper

          Visiting Scholar,

          Univ of Calif Transport Center

          Berkeley CA

          www.uctc.net

          skype: mrmeter

          Office: 510 642 6889

          Cell: 202 262 7476

           




          --
          Email from Andrew Curry

          And see my personal futures blog at http://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/
        • Lee Schipper
          Thanks very useful. I agree, london traffic levels have crept up. But isn t the question not where they are today vs 5 years ago, rather where WOULD they have
          Message 4 of 5 , May 5, 2008
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            Thanks very useful.
            I agree, london traffic levels have crept up. But isn't the question not where they are today vs 5 years ago, rather
            where WOULD they have been if CP had not deen introduced.
             
             
             

            Lee Schipper
            Visiting Scholar
            UC Transportation Center
            Berkeley CA USA www.uctc.net
            skype: mrmeter
            +1 510 642 6889, FAX +1 510 642 6061
            Cell +1 202 262 7476
            www.uctc.net 

             


            From: NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Andrew Curry
            Sent: Monday, May 05, 2008 2:30 AM
            To: NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com
            Subject: Re: [NewMobilityCafe] Boris drives a Morris? What will the New Mayor do to New London

            Dear Lee,

            Responding as a London voter, your question is quite a complicated one. There are a few clues, though:

            1. On environmental policy, the Conservatives nationally have been trying to position themselves as a party which is concerned about environmental issues, even if these shoes aren't always a comfortable fit for them. So - to the extent that the party leadership has influence, they will try to make sure that Boris Johnson doesn't blow a big hole in this.

            2. On transport and on the congestion charge, I think the story will be more complicated. Generally, Conservatives don't realise that transport restrictions are popular with quite a lot of voters (especially where they improve the quality of life). We had an interesting example of this locally in my London borough after the Conservatives won power. They proposed to remove the speed cushions in my local area (while assuring us that the 20mph limit would stay) and were a bit shocked at the mobilisation this created locally.

            The congestion charge has reduced traffic levels in the centre, although these have - from memory - crept up again (probably suggesting that they are not expensive enough). My guess is that the congestion charge iwill stay in the core area; that Livingstone's plans to increase the charge for high pollution/large engined vehicles will be scrapped (although research by the company I work for suggests that nationally there are surprisingly high levels of hostility to 4x4 (SUV) vehicles; and that they may or may not remove the 'western extension' of the charge zone into Kensington and Chelsea (plus; it appears to have been effective in removing congestion in most of the main roads which run through the area without increasing rat-running:  minus; K&C is a Conservative council which has consistently opposed the extension, and they may - good old-fashioned politics - scrap it as a 'sweety' for their supporters. But all of this is also inflected by the environmental aspirations nationally.

            3. Transport for London is a pretty effective urban transport manager with an increasing reputation for competence. (The introduction of the Oyster card has been a success; it's the only part of the country where bus passenger numbers are increasing; it gained control of one of the less successful London overground rail networks recently in competition for the franchise). Part of that reputation comes from the fact that it has a pretty good grasp of the complexity of urban transport issues. I suspect that some of the incoming Mayor's new ideas will be piloted somewhere and then quietly dropped after the pilot scheme fails to produce the desired results. And we'll see one or two high-profile but low-impact decisions implemented, such as the removal of the 'bendy buses' from service.

            4. Also worth noting that the London Assembly is elected by a system with some proportional element in it, and the Mayor doesn't have a majority; to some degree he has to rule consensually. (Cons 11, Lab 8, Liberal, 3, Green, 2, BNP, 1). The Liberals and Greens have fairly strong environmental agendas; the BNP is a far-right party and doesn't).

            Andrew      



            2008/5/3 Lee Schipper <SCHIPPER@wri. org>:

            I have read the election results. What does it portend for London's transport and environmental systems?

             

            Lee Schipper

            Visiting Scholar,

            Univ of Calif Transport Center

            Berkeley CA

            www.uctc.net

            skype: mrmeter

            Office: 510 642 6889

            Cell: 202 262 7476

             




            --
            Email from Andrew Curry

            And see my personal futures blog at http://thenextwavef utures.wordpress .com/

          • Ian Wingrove
            Traffic levels have not crept up - congestion has. The new mayor has enough tory votes on the assembly to pass his budget, unlike the previous mayor who needed
            Message 5 of 5 , May 5, 2008
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              Traffic levels have not crept up - congestion has.

              The new mayor has enough tory votes on the assembly to pass his budget, unlike the previous mayor who needed a budget deal with the greens.


              ----- Original Message -----
              From: NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com <NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com>
              To: NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com <NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com>
              Sent: Tue May 06 06:00:50 2008
              Subject: RE: [NewMobilityCafe] Boris drives a Morris? What will the New Mayor do to New London

              Thanks very useful.
              I agree, london traffic levels have crept up. But isn't the question not where they are today vs 5 years ago, rather
              where WOULD they have been if CP had not deen introduced.




              Lee Schipper
              Visiting Scholar
              UC Transportation Center
              Berkeley CA USA www.uctc.net
              skype: mrmeter
              +1 510 642 6889, FAX +1 510 642 6061
              Cell +1 202 262 7476
              www.uctc.net <http://www.uctc.net/>



              ________________________________

              From: NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Andrew Curry
              Sent: Monday, May 05, 2008 2:30 AM
              To: NewMobilityCafe@yahoogroups.com
              Subject: Re: [NewMobilityCafe] Boris drives a Morris? What will the New Mayor do to New London



              Dear Lee,

              Responding as a London voter, your question is quite a complicated one. There are a few clues, though:

              1. On environmental policy, the Conservatives nationally have been trying to position themselves as a party which is concerned about environmental issues, even if these shoes aren't always a comfortable fit for them. So - to the extent that the party leadership has influence, they will try to make sure that Boris Johnson doesn't blow a big hole in this.

              2. On transport and on the congestion charge, I think the story will be more complicated. Generally, Conservatives don't realise that transport restrictions are popular with quite a lot of voters (especially where they improve the quality of life). We had an interesting example of this locally in my London borough after the Conservatives won power. They proposed to remove the speed cushions in my local area (while assuring us that the 20mph limit would stay) and were a bit shocked at the mobilisation this created locally.

              The congestion charge has reduced traffic levels in the centre, although these have - from memory - crept up again (probably suggesting that they are not expensive enough). My guess is that the congestion charge iwill stay in the core area; that Livingstone's plans to increase the charge for high pollution/large engined vehicles will be scrapped (although research by the company I work for suggests that nationally there are surprisingly high levels of hostility to 4x4 (SUV) vehicles; and that they may or may not remove the 'western extension' of the charge zone into Kensington and Chelsea (plus; it appears to have been effective in removing congestion in most of the main roads which run through the area without increasing rat-running: minus; K&C is a Conservative council which has consistently opposed the extension, and they may - good old-fashioned politics - scrap it as a 'sweety' for their supporters. But all of this is also inflected by the environmental aspirations nationally.

              3. Transport for London is a pretty effective urban transport manager with an increasing reputation for competence. (The introduction of the Oyster card has been a success; it's the only part of the country where bus passenger numbers are increasing; it gained control of one of the less successful London overground rail networks recently in competition for the franchise). Part of that reputation comes from the fact that it has a pretty good grasp of the complexity of urban transport issues. I suspect that some of the incoming Mayor's new ideas will be piloted somewhere and then quietly dropped after the pilot scheme fails to produce the desired results. And we'll see one or two high-profile but low-impact decisions implemented, such as the removal of the 'bendy buses <http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/articles/cnj/sep8,06.shtml> ' from service.

              4. Also worth noting that the London Assembly is elected by a system with some proportional element in it, and the Mayor doesn't have a majority; to some degree he has to rule consensually. (Cons 11, Lab 8, Liberal, 3, Green, 2, BNP, 1). The Liberals and Greens have fairly strong environmental agendas; the BNP is a far-right party and doesn't).

              Andrew




              2008/5/3 Lee Schipper <SCHIPPER@... <mailto:SCHIPPER@...> >:


              I have read the election results. What does it portend for London's transport and environmental systems?



              Lee Schipper

              Visiting Scholar,

              Univ of Calif Transport Center

              Berkeley CA

              www.uctc.net

              skype: mrmeter

              Office: 510 642 6889

              Cell: 202 262 7476






              --
              Email from Andrew Curry

              And see my personal futures blog at http://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/ <http://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/>




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