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SPC Mesoscale Discussion

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  • Dale
    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
    Message 1 of 1 , May 4, 2005
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      MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
         NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
         1111 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2005
        
         AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
        
         CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
        
         VALID 041611Z - 041815Z
        
         THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN FL BY MID AFTERNOON.
         POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
         DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
         A POSSIBLE WW.
        
         LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS THINNING AND STRONG
         SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER SRN FL WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
         LOW TO MID 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
         CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. 12Z RAOB DATA FROM
         MIAMI AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
         S FL IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE
         EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
         VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH SFC-6 KM
         SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. MULTICELLS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
         DOMINANT STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
         POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
         STORM-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
        
         ..DIAL.. 05/04/2005
        
        
         ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
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