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Iranian Commentary on Iraq

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    From: Laurie Mylroie [Mewnews: Commentary by L.M. omitted] Title: Iran: Commentary says Iraq deserves to be attacked Tehran Hayat-e Now in
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 1, 2002
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      From: "Laurie Mylroie" <sam11@...>

      [Mewnews: Commentary by L.M. omitted]
      Title: Iran: Commentary says Iraq deserves to be attacked
      Tehran Hayat-e Now in Persian 18 Sep 02 p 4
      Subslug: Commentary by Ali Reza Jabbari: "Saddam's retreat"

      [FBIS Translated Text] As soon as the Iraqi government announced its
      readiness for the unconditional admission of UN weapons' inspectors, the
      White House described that decision as propaganda and a tactical move.

      Although on numerous occasions at critical periods Baghdad has
      resorted to similar moves in order to reduce the pressures exerted on
      her, it seems that the recent stance of the Iraqi government has created
      some problems for political experts and analysts in evaluating the
      developments in Iraq and the region.

      In a letter to the UN Secretary General, the Iraqi Foreign Minister
      Naji Sabri wrote: "I am happy to announce the decision of the
      government of the Republic of Iraq to allow the return of the UN weapons
      inspectors to Iraq without any preconditions." However, in its latest
      report about Iraq's unconditional admission of UN weapon's inspectors,
      the CNN reported that Washington regards Iraq's letter to the UN
      Secretary General as a tactical move in order to stop the UN Security
      Council from issuing a new resolution on Iraq, and has rejected it.

      As regards Iraq's letter and the probable course of developments in
      Iraq, especially the likelihood of America's military invasion of Iraq,
      there are a few issues that can to some extent dispel the existing
      uncertainties. The first point is that it seems that rather than
      demonstrating Baghdad's decisive resolve [to readmit the inspectors],
      Naji Sabri's letter is a tactical move that has been taken under the
      present critical circumstances. Without doubt, on the one hand,
      Baghdad's decision is due to the pressure of public opinion and, on the
      other hand, due to international pressure, especially America's
      threatening ultimatums that have forced the Iraqi leaders to take such a
      far-reaching decision under the present critical circumstances. If this
      is proved to be the case, it can be firmly asserted that the effect of
      that letter would only be short lived, and that it will not have much
      effect upon the ultimate decision of the White House to attack Iraq.

      The second point is that under the present critical circumstances,
      Baghdad has also finally come to the conclusion that Iraq's problem is
      not with the United Nations or with the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.
      Rather, Iraq's real problem is America's military preparations for
      attacking Iraq and the decision of the White House to topple the present
      Iraqi government.

      Although the issue of Baghdad's acquisition of weapons of mass
      destruction, including chemical, biological and probably nuclear weapons,
      is very important and that it can endanger the security of the world, and
      especially the security of the Middle East, nevertheless, Baghdad knows
      very well that this issue is only an excuse put forward by the White
      House in order to attack Iraq. All evidence shows that whether Iraq
      possesses or does not possess such weapons, this will not make much
      difference in Washington's ultimate decision to attack Iraq.

      Baghdad has engaged in so many contradictory moves in the past, and
      especially during the past few months, that many countries that were not
      convinced about the correctness of America's attacks on Iraq have now
      become convinced that the Iraqi government deserves such punishment.
      These countries believe that during critical periods, the Iraqi
      government engages in some tactical moves in order to influence American
      decision in carrying out a military invasion of that country.

      At the same time, it seems that the White House will accelerate its
      diplomatic efforts, especially at the United Nations and in the Security
      Council, in order to neutralize Baghdad's tactics. Also, in order to
      take the initiative away from Iraq, America may even speed up its
      military operations. This is due to the fact that the basis of American
      attack on Iraq (on the basis of all the available evidence) is a
      strategic decision, while Iraq's efforts to counter and overcome the
      present crisis are merely tactical moves.

      [Description of Source: -- reformist Tehran daily managed by Majles deputy
      Hadi Khamene'i; successor to the banned Jahan-e Eslam]
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