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Saddam's strategy / Khoder Jadar's loss

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  • Josh Pollack
    Philadelphia Inquirer Wednesday, August 1, 2001 As Iraq steps up attacks, U.S. weighs options By Warren P. Strobel INQUIRER WASHINGTON BUREAU
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 1, 2001
      Philadelphia Inquirer
      Wednesday, August 1, 2001
      As Iraq steps up attacks, U.S. weighs options
      By Warren P. Strobel
      INQUIRER WASHINGTON BUREAU

      http://inq.philly.com/content/inquirer/2001/08/01/national/IRAQ01.htm

      WASHINGTON - Iraq's Saddam Hussein has again presented an American president
      with a dilemma, escalating his attacks on U.S. aircraft in a way that leaves
      President Bush with few attractive ways to respond.

      The White House has hinted over the last few days that it is contemplating
      significant air strikes on Iraq in response to Hussein's moves, which
      include the near downing of an Air Force U-2 spy plane last week and the
      apparent firing of an antiaircraft missile into Saudi Arabian airspace.

      The Pentagon yesterday released new figures to illustrate that Iraq
      antiaircraft forces are becoming increasingly aggressive.

      In the south, Iraq has violated the "no-fly zone" or threatened Western
      warplanes 370 times so far this year, the Pentagon said. That compares with
      221 such incidents in all of 2000. In the north, there were 145 incidents
      last year and there have been 62 so far this year.

      Suggesting that a stronger U.S. reply might be in the works, national
      security adviser Condoleezza Rice said Sunday that Bush is crafting an Iraq
      policy that contemplates "the use of military force in a more resolute
      manner and not just a manner of tit-for-tat with them every day."

      "Saddam Hussein is on the radar screen for the administration," Rice said.

      Judith Yaphe, a National Defense University professor, said, "The real
      question is, 'Can you let it go?' Because if you let it go, he [Hussein]
      will do more." She described the events of recent weeks as Iraq's most
      significant challenge in recent years to the two U.S. and British no-fly
      zones that cover most of its northern and southern territory.

      Bush, however, can't strike back without further inflaming the Arab world,
      where the population is increasingly angered by America's failure to
      restrain Israel's suppression of the Palestinian uprising, said a senior
      U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Turkey and Saudi Arabia,
      where U.S. warplanes are based, would not support a major U.S. attack on
      Iraq, the official said.

      Hussein has tried to align himself with the Palestinian uprising, and has
      sent money to the families of Palestinians killed in the conflict, and big
      new U.S. attacks would probably enhance his stature among Arabs.

      Hussein would be "the hero of the Palestinians," Yaphe said. "He doesn't
      care what he loses."

      Last Wednesday, Iraq fired a missile at a high-altitude U-2 spy plane. The
      missile exploded close enough to be felt by the pilot, but the plane wasn't
      hit.

      A Navy EC-2 reconnaissance plane flying over Kuwait a few days earlier
      reported that an Iraqi air-defense missile was fired at it. A third major
      incident, in which the pilot of an Air Force airborne radar plane flying
      over Saudi Arabia also reported a missile fired in his direction, is still
      being investigated.

      Military planners have made preparations for a broad attack on Iraq's
      air-defense system, one senior official said, and Pentagon officials have
      urged that the President, should he decide to retaliate, order a
      disproportionately large strike that takes the initiative away from Hussein.

      The military's advice is "don't do this nickel-and-dime," said Anthony
      Cordesman, an expert on the U.S.-Iraq confrontation at the Washington-based
      Center for Strategic and International Studies.

      Likely U.S. targets, Cordesman said, include Iraq's air-defense radars,
      command and control sites, communications nodes in Iraq's air-defense
      systems, and buildings where Hussein is believed to have restarted his plans
      to build longer-range ballistic missiles. Other targets might include tanks,
      artillery and bases belonging to Hussein's Republican Guard and other units
      that help the dictator stay in power.

      The risks of such an attack include not only further damage to the United
      States' standing in the Middle East, but also unintended civilian deaths,
      Cordesman said.

      Iraq, for example, is believed to have hidden biological- and
      chemical-weapons facilities on university campuses that the United States
      couldn't attack without risking civilian casualties.

      And, Cordesman said, "If we lose a single American aircraft, it's a
      significant Iraqi victory."

      -----

      Philadelphia Inquirer
      Wednesday, August 1, 2001
      Precarious life in a 'no-fly zone'
      By Kim Ghattas
      FOR THE INQUIRER

      http://inq.philly.com/content/inquirer/2001/08/01/national/NOFLY01.htm

      TALL AFAR, Iraq - Khoder Jader has been grief-stricken since June 16, when a
      missile hit a soccer field in his town while a game was under way. The
      explosion killed 23 people, including three of his sons.

      "Why, why did my sons die?" asked Jader, a teacher, as he shook his head,
      weeping and slowly repeating the names of his dead sons - Faisal, Elias,
      Mustafa - and the name of his son Hassan, who lost a leg in the explosion.

      This is life at ground zero in the "no-fly zone" of northern Iraq, where
      duels between American planes and Iraqi radar installations can rain death
      on unsuspecting civilians.

      The sound of jet fighters has become part of daily life in Tall Afar since
      the no-fly zones were established in 1991 in northern Iraq and 1992 in the
      south by the United States, Britain and France. The intent of the zones was
      to put an end to Iraq's repression of Kurds in the north and Shiites in the
      south. France has since dropped out of the patrols.

      After the 1998 weapon-inspector crisis, U.S. and British pilots began
      "aggressive enforcement" of the no-fly zones, striking at any part of the
      Iraqi air-defense system, not just those that directly target their
      aircraft. Since then, the Iraqi army has also been ordered to fire at the
      airplanes at all costs.

      Baghdad says 300 civilians have died and 900 have been wounded in the raids.
      Those figures cannot be independently verified, and American officials
      discount them as too high.

      For Jader, though, the results are all too apparent.

      "It was Tuesday, at exactly 11:30," his nephew Hussein Jader said as
      mourning relatives crowded into one of the two rooms of Jader's modest home.
      "The American planes came, the children were playing in the football field,
      and the planes bombed it. One strike, one tragic strike."

      U.S. and British officials say it was not an American plane that caused the
      devastation here.

      After Iraqi TV announced that 23 people had died in an air raid, U.S.
      Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said coalition aircraft had not fired
      any weapons that day. He said that Iraqi forces had fired several
      surface-to-air missiles but that the coalition aircraft did not respond.

      "[If] anyone was killed, it was undoubtedly the result of misdirected ground
      fire that ended up in an [unintended] location," Rumsfeld said.

      Hussein Jader doesn't believe that.

      "The Americans will never admit it. They are liars; they're guilty. Didn't
      they also bomb the Aamiriyya shelter [in Baghdad during the gulf war in
      1991]? Didn't they kill hundreds of civilians then? Aren't they killing
      hundreds of civilians every day with their sanctions?"

      In May 1999, 14 civilians died in an air strike at a nomad encampment that
      the United States said it had believed was an antiaircraft-missile site.

      The Iraqi army is suspected of positioning antiaircraft guns in residential
      areas. And there have been cases in which shrapnel and unexploded Iraqi
      ordnance have landed in civilian areas, killing residents.

      On June 16, witnesses in a vegetable market near the football field in Tall
      Afar say, they heard only one explosion. That would apparently rule out
      Iraqi antiaircraft gunfire, though not antiaircraft missiles.

      "No, there was no shooting before," Hussein Jader said. "No, there was no
      Iraqi antiaircraft shooting at the planes," he said. Before every answer, he
      glanced at the official sent by the Iraqi ministry of information to
      accompany a foreign reporter.

      Determining what exactly happened on that Tuesday in Tall Afar is also made
      difficult by the fact that no reporters other than those from Iraqi TV were
      allowed on the site until about a week after the bombing.

      Sitting on a mat on the floor, Khoder Jader was sipping strong, sweet tea.
      He said he cared little for details. Whether his sons were killed by U.S.
      aircraft or Iraqi missiles, he blamed "Amreeca" for the conflict that has
      gone on here for 11 years.

      _________________________________________________________________
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