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Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

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  • Bruce Majors
    so you are saying it would be welcome then? and would result in less obesity
    Message 1 of 20 , Apr 3, 2013
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      so you are saying it would be welcome then?

      and would result in less obesity


      On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 11:24 AM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
       

      An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

      The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

      One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

      Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

      Jeff


    • Dan
      I m skeptical of North Korea s capability of carrying out such a strike. There s a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They d have to
      Message 2 of 20 , Apr 3, 2013
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        I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

        Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

        Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

        In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

        I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

        That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

        Regards,

        Dan

        * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

        From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
        To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
        Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

         
        An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

        The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

        One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

        Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

        Jeff
      • Dan
        It would be cars in line with the EMP at a close enough range. Even a strike on a city like LA would have problems there. Cars in covered parking lots might be
        Message 3 of 20 , Apr 3, 2013
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          It would be cars in line with the EMP at a close enough range. Even a strike on a city like LA would have problems there. Cars in covered parking lots might be effectively shielded. Cars behind a mountain, the same. And so one. A lot of the electronic equipment and electrical infrastructure might remain unaffected. The real problem would likely be something like a repeat of a regional power outrage -- not that everyone's electrical stuff is fried, but that key nodes in the grid go down in enough places to black out a large area, such as the 2003 black outs in the Northeastern US. I believe power was out in that region for about a week in many areas. Rioting didn't, IIRC, ensue. The whole prepper horror scenario didn't come about.

          And some might see it as a blessing in disguise. Imagine Twitter, chat, email, and surfing don't pull you away from other tasks, such as finishing Proust's long novel. :)

          Regards,

          Dan

          From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
          To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
          Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:27 AM
          Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] Re: The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

           
          ...without cars running, what's gonna kill them?

          Jeff


          On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 10:24 AM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
          An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

          The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

          One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

          Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

          Jeff
        • dan_ust
          The electrical fences around the FEMA camps would go down and all the interns would be free!
          Message 4 of 20 , Apr 3, 2013
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            The electrical fences around the FEMA camps would go down and all the interns would be free!

            --- In LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com, Bruce Majors <majors.bruce@...> wrote:
            >
            > so you are saying it would be welcome then?
            >
            > and would result in less obesity
            >
            >
            > On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 11:24 AM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
            >
            > > **
            > >
            > >
            > > An EMP strike from North Korea. From what I've read, that is not at all
            > > far-fetched. They have the missile technology, it seems, and the
            > > miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job. I've read it has a satellite
            > > in orbit What payload does the satellite carry? Wouldn't a small nuke be
            > > possible?
            > >
            > > The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.
            > > From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and
            > > carriage days in the blink of an eye. Except we no longer know how to run
            > > a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the
            > > 400 million people in the US.
            > >
            > > One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the
            > > next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity. Your car
            > > won't start. Phones don't work. It's still kinda cold here, but the
            > > heater won't come on. Food begins to rot. No water available without
            > > electric pumps. A rather messy picture, no?
            > >
            > > Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...
            > >
            > > Jeff
          • Roderick Long
            ... Albeit by candlelight. R. ________________________________ From: Dan To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
            Message 5 of 20 , Apr 3, 2013
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              > such as finishing Proust's long novel

              Albeit by candlelight.

              R.


              From: Dan <dan_ust@...>
              To: "LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com" <LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com>
              Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:23 AM
              Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] Re: The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



              It would be cars in line with the EMP at a close enough range. Even a strike on a city like LA would have problems there. Cars in covered parking lots might be effectively shielded. Cars behind a mountain, the same. And so one. A lot of the electronic equipment and electrical infrastructure might remain unaffected. The real problem would likely be something like a repeat of a regional power outrage -- not that everyone's electrical stuff is fried, but that key nodes in the grid go down in enough places to black out a large area, such as the 2003 black outs in the Northeastern US. I believe power was out in that region for about a week in many areas. Rioting didn't, IIRC, ensue. The whole prepper horror scenario didn't come about.

              And some might see it as a blessing in disguise. Imagine Twitter, chat, email, and surfing don't pull you away from other tasks, such as finishing Proust's long novel. :)

              Regards,

              Dan

              From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
              To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
              Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:27 AM
              Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] Re: The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

               
              ...without cars running, what's gonna kill them?

              Jeff


              On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 10:24 AM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
              An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

              The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

              One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

              Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

              Jeff




            • Dan
              Nah, during daylight hours, if our North Korean overlords permit. ;) Regards, Dan My short story Residue now available for Kindle at:
              Message 6 of 20 , Apr 3, 2013
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                Nah, during daylight hours, if our North Korean overlords permit. ;)

                Regards,

                Dan
                 My short story "Residue" now available for Kindle at:

                On Apr 3, 2013, at 4:39 PM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                 

                > such as finishing Proust's long novel

                Albeit by candlelight.

                R.

                From: Dan <dan_ust@...>
                To: "LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com" <LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com>
                Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:23 AM
                Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] Re: The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                It would be cars in line with the EMP at a close enough range. Even a strike on a city like LA would have problems there. Cars in covered parking lots might be effectively shielded. Cars behind a mountain, the same. And so one. A lot of the electronic equipment and electrical infrastructure might remain unaffected. The real problem would likely be something like a repeat of a regional power outrage -- not that everyone's electrical stuff is fried, but that key nodes in the grid go down in enough places to black out a large area, such as the 2003 black outs in the Northeastern US. I believe power was out in that region for about a week in many areas. Rioting didn't, IIRC, ensue. The whole prepper horror scenario didn't come about.

                And some might see it as a blessing in disguise. Imagine Twitter, chat, email, and surfing don't pull you away from other tasks, such as finishing Proust's long novel. :)

                Regards,

                Dan

                From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:27 AM
                Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] Re: The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering
                 
                ...without cars running, what's gonna kill them?

                Jeff
              • J Olson
                Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I ve been reading. A high-altitude detonation pretty much
                Message 7 of 20 , Apr 4, 2013
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                  Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                  Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                  Jeff


                  On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                   

                  I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                  Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                  Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                  In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                  I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                  That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                  Regards,

                  Dan

                  * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

                  From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                  To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                  Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                  Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                   
                  An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

                  The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

                  One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

                  Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

                  Jeff


                • J Olson
                  Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a
                  Message 8 of 20 , Apr 4, 2013
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                    Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                    Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                    Jeff


                    On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                    Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                    Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                    Jeff


                    On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                     

                    I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                    Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                    Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                    In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                    I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                    That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                    Regards,

                    Dan

                    * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

                    From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                    To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                    Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                    Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                     
                    An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

                    The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

                    One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

                    Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

                    Jeff



                  • Dan
                    I m not privy to all that s going on behind the scenes here, but there s a big difference, in my eyes, between the provocation coming from both sides with
                    Message 9 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
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                      I'm not privy to all that's going on behind the scenes here, but there's a big difference, in my eyes, between the provocation coming from both sides with North Korea and the "major event" 9/11. The closer analogy is the run up to war with Iraq. (I would say with Afghanistan, but I think the 9/11 factor played an even bigger role there. I don't mean it had no role in the run up to war with Iraq, but that the invasion of Afghanistan was so close to the 9/11 attacks that I think that that blinded most people to what was going on. Heck, I still hear people to this day -- even self-identified libertarians and fellow travelers -- who see the Afghanistan invasion as justified.)

                      And, yes, I agree more here with the kind of manipulation that the FDR regime did in the leap up to Pearl Harbor. (I still have some doubts that FDR knew it would happen at Pearl Harbor. I think he was more expecting the Japanese Empire to cause some kind of incident that would give him an ability to intervene more directly in China. But it's been a while since I've considered much about this.) There is a difference here in that the North Korea leadership appears to playing their part in the pas de deux excellently.

                      And, of course, similar to many previous escalations, there are many crisis that start to build until an actual war happens. I'm very pessimistic at this point for a peaceful solution, though perhaps one might happen because the PRC seems to be siding ever more against North Korea and might bring pressure to bear that stops the escalation. (I don't mean to depict this purely as North Korea needs to back down -- as if the US were all innocent. However, North Korea is a dictatorship that's fairly bellicose. I also think it's also headed by a regime that's on its way out, hence needs to do something to rally people behind it -- rather than have them thinking about life beyond it.)

                      But this is a bit different because it's not a matter of this or that news report being mistaken, but a now weeks long pattern of saber-rattling and escalation between sides along with lots of commentary and analysis from different camps to follow. This isn't like 9/11 where there was to most people, including you and me, no forewarning, no build up, just an attack and the hours of of rescue and destruction that followed.

                      Email appears to be going mad, your earlier email -- the one you're responding to here in your typical must add more fashion :) -- hasn't appeared in my inbox yet... Let me respond to that now:

                      I don't know what you've been reading, but it depends on the yield of the weapon and where it's placed. Yes, a weapon with megaton yield properly placed can with EMP devastate a large area, disrupting or, in some cases, destroying vulnerable electronics. My doubts here arise with North Korea having a high yield weapon that's reliable and that they can put in the right place. I think much of what I've read and seen backs up my doubts, naturally. I'd be really surprised if North Korea were able to pull this off or even if they had high yield nuclear weapons or reliable missile delivery systems at all. Everything points to them having low yield weapons and that their long range missile technology is not all that good.

                      Now, some might argue, "Better safe than sorry" here and I can't fault them for that. It's probably a good idea to plan for the outlier here. And to be fair to you, your subject line is about the outlier -- not what is likely, right?

                      Regards,

                      Dan

                      From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                      To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                      Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 11:39 PM
                      Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                       
                      Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                      Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                      Jeff


                      On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                      Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                      Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                      Jeff

                      On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                      I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                      Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                      Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                      In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                      I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                      That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                      Regards,

                      Dan

                      * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.
                    • Roderick Long
                      ... Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence? R. ________________________________ From: J Olson
                      Message 10 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
                      • 0 Attachment
                        > Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of 
                        > Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war 
                        > occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible 
                        > hand"-type activities, but through planning)

                        Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence?

                        R.


                        From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                        To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                        Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 8:39 PM
                        Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                        Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                        Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                        Jeff


                        On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                        Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                        Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                        Jeff


                        On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                         
                        I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                        Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                        Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                        In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                        I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                        That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                        Regards,

                        Dan

                        * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

                        From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                        To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                        Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                        Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                         
                        An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

                        The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

                        One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

                        Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

                        Jeff






                      • J Olson
                        Invisible hand explanations are limited to explaining certain phenomena, and can be applied inappropriately (and in some cases, wildly inappropriately!), no?
                        Message 11 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
                        • 0 Attachment
                          Invisible hand explanations are limited to explaining certain phenomena, and can be applied inappropriately (and in some cases, wildly inappropriately!), no?  For instance, people not purchasing my gigolo services could be due the invisible hand - spontaneous market cooperation - or could be because my neighbor is colluding with other town members to prevent customers from coming into town (quite understandably, but still... ;/)

                          My observation - aided and abetted by Dan Ust, ironically, who offered a clear distinction between the Invisible Hand and the Hidden Hand to me off list - is that libertarians are so enamored of their economic analysis a la Mises of "planned chaos" and the unintended consequences of government regulation and its handmaiden bureaucracies that they are highly skeptical in general principle of collusion - that is, they tend to dismiss the idea that very bad government actions can come about through planning and collusion involving people in high places.  As an example, libertarians tend to discount the 1001 "coincidences" of 9/11 as the result of "invisible hands" such as government incompetence or "misunderstandings" or "shit happens" (e.g., the unprecedented collapse of steel-structure buildings, the inability of the USAF and Air National Guard to get interceptors airborne in a timely fashion, the unprecedented disappearance of the black boxes, strangely large put options on commercial airlines before the event, foreknowledge of the collapse of WTC 7, evidence from the collapsed buildings immediately shipped out, the disregarding of knowledge of an impending event by the intelligence and political community, etc.).

                          My own belief, which I think the evidence powerfully warrants, is that most if not all major government policies and acts are of a "Hidden Hand" variety.  The Invisible Hand, of course, cannot be overthrown, but it can be severely warped by influential parties.  An example of such warpage is the Fed and all the massive economic distortions it has wrought.  Most libertarians believe the Fed is merely a manifestation of economic ignorance.  I believe that is an ignorant view.  Institutions like the Fed don't spring into existence accidentally, but with extreme malice aforethought.  What the USG is doing now with North Korea is no more accidental or motivated by random factors than was the Gulf of Tonkin.  All major top-level governmental policies result from planning and serve the ends of money and power for the Elite.  As Jesse V. said: "When you wonder why someone wants war, look who's getting paid."


                          Jeff




                          On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 10:29 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                           

                          > Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of 
                          > Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war 
                          > occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible 
                          > hand"-type activities, but through planning)

                          Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence?

                          R.


                          Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 8:39 PM
                          Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                          Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                          Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                          Jeff


                          On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                          Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                          Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                          Jeff


                          On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                           
                          I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                          Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                          Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                          In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                          I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                          That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                          Regards,

                          Dan

                          * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

                          From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                          To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                          Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                          Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                           
                          An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

                          The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

                          One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

                          Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

                          Jeff







                        • Roderick Long
                          Fine, but was your answer to my question yes or no? R. ________________________________ From: J Olson To:
                          Message 12 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
                          • 0 Attachment
                            Fine, but was your answer to my question yes or no?

                            R.


                            From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                            To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                            Sent: Friday, April 5, 2013 9:17 AM
                            Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                            Invisible hand explanations are limited to explaining certain phenomena, and can be applied inappropriately (and in some cases, wildly inappropriately!), no?  For instance, people not purchasing my gigolo services could be due the invisible hand - spontaneous market cooperation - or could be because my neighbor is colluding with other town members to prevent customers from coming into town (quite understandably, but still... ;/)

                            My observation - aided and abetted by Dan Ust, ironically, who offered a clear distinction between the Invisible Hand and the Hidden Hand to me off list - is that libertarians are so enamored of their economic analysis a la Mises of "planned chaos" and the unintended consequences of government regulation and its handmaiden bureaucracies that they are highly skeptical in general principle of collusion - that is, they tend to dismiss the idea that very bad government actions can come about through planning and collusion involving people in high places.  As an example, libertarians tend to discount the 1001 "coincidences" of 9/11 as the result of "invisible hands" such as government incompetence or "misunderstandings" or "shit happens" (e.g., the unprecedented collapse of steel-structure buildings, the inability of the USAF and Air National Guard to get interceptors airborne in a timely fashion, the unprecedented disappearance of the black boxes, strangely large put options on commercial airlines before the event, foreknowledge of the collapse of WTC 7, evidence from the collapsed buildings immediately shipped out, the disregarding of knowledge of an impending event by the intelligence and political community, etc.).

                            My own belief, which I think the evidence powerfully warrants, is that most if not all major government policies and acts are of a "Hidden Hand" variety.  The Invisible Hand, of course, cannot be overthrown, but it can be severely warped by influential parties.  An example of such warpage is the Fed and all the massive economic distortions it has wrought.  Most libertarians believe the Fed is merely a manifestation of economic ignorance.  I believe that is an ignorant view.  Institutions like the Fed don't spring into existence accidentally, but with extreme malice aforethought.  What the USG is doing now with North Korea is no more accidental or motivated by random factors than was the Gulf of Tonkin.  All major top-level governmental policies result from planning and serve the ends of money and power for the Elite.  As Jesse V. said: "When you wonder why someone wants war, look who's getting paid."


                            Jeff




                            On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 10:29 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                             
                            > Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of 
                            > Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war 
                            > occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible 
                            > hand"-type activities, but through planning)

                            Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence?

                            R.


                            Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 8:39 PM
                            Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                            Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                            Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                            Jeff


                            On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                            Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                            Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                            Jeff


                            On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                             
                            I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                            Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                            Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                            In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                            I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                            That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                            Regards,

                            Dan

                            * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

                            From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                            To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                            Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                            Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                             
                            An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

                            The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

                            One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

                            Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

                            Jeff











                          • Juan Garofalo
                            ... LOL. Actually, the invisible hand explanation and libertarian explanation strongly suggest that american government agents are responsible for a false
                            Message 13 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
                            • 0 Attachment
                              At 08:29 AM 4/5/2013 -0700, you wrote:


                              >> Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of
                              >> Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war
                              >> occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible
                              >> hand"-type activities, but through planning)
                              >
                              >Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence?


                              LOL.

                              Actually, the 'invisible hand' explanation and 'libertarian' explanation strongly suggest that american government agents are responsible for a 'false flag operation'.

                              While the 'invisible hand' of the market more or less creates order, the 'invisible hand' of government creates destruction.


                              And the belief that something like the NYC attack was possible because of government incompetence, while at the same time benefitting that same incompetent government is pretty flawed too.

                              Yeah, governments are so stupid. They keep increasing their power because they are oh so inept at ruling sheep...







                              >R.
                              >
                              >
                              >From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                              >To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                              >Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 8:39 PM
                              >Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook). These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace. The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).
                              >
                              >Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.
                              >
                              >Jeff
                              >
                              >
                              >On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <<mailto:jlolson53@...>jlolson53@...> wrote:
                              >Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading. A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide. I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.
                              >
                              >Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!
                              >
                              >Jeff
                              >
                              >
                              >On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <<mailto:dan_ust@...>dan_ust@...> wrote:
                              >
                              >I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).
                              >
                              >Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.
                              >
                              >Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)
                              >
                              >In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...
                              >
                              >I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)
                              >
                              >That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.
                              >
                              >Regards,
                              >
                              >Dan
                              >
                              >* Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.
                              >
                              >From: J Olson <<mailto:jlolson53@...>jlolson53@...>
                              >To: <mailto:LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com>LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                              >Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                              >Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering
                              >
                              >
                              >An EMP strike from North Korea. From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched. They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job. I've read it has a satellite in orbit What payload does the satellite carry? Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?
                              >
                              >The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America. From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye. Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.
                              >
                              >One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity. Your car won't start. Phones don't work. It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on. Food begins to rot. No water available without electric pumps. A rather messy picture, no?
                              >
                              >Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...
                              >
                              >Jeff
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >
                              >
                            • Dan
                              Well, this arrived almost ten hours after I sent it. Regards, Dan My short story Residue now available for Kindle at:
                              Message 14 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
                              • 0 Attachment
                                Well, this arrived almost ten hours after I sent it.

                                Regards,

                                Dan
                                 My short story "Residue" now available for Kindle at:

                                On Apr 5, 2013, at 9:38 AM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                                 

                                I'm not privy to all that's going on behind the scenes here, but there's a big difference, in my eyes, between the provocation coming from both sides with North Korea and the "major event" 9/11. The closer analogy is the run up to war with Iraq. (I would say with Afghanistan, but I think the 9/11 factor played an even bigger role there. I don't mean it had no role in the run up to war with Iraq, but that the invasion of Afghanistan was so close to the 9/11 attacks that I think that that blinded most people to what was going on. Heck, I still hear people to this day -- even self-identified libertarians and fellow travelers -- who see the Afghanistan invasion as justified.)

                                And, yes, I agree more here with the kind of manipulation that the FDR regime did in the leap up to Pearl Harbor. (I still have some doubts that FDR knew it would happen at Pearl Harbor. I think he was more expecting the Japanese Empire to cause some kind of incident that would give him an ability to intervene more directly in China. But it's been a while since I've considered much about this.) There is a difference here in that the North Korea leadership appears to playing their part in the pas de deux excellently.

                                And, of course, similar to many previous escalations, there are many crisis that start to build until an actual war happens. I'm very pessimistic at this point for a peaceful solution, though perhaps one might happen because the PRC seems to be siding ever more against North Korea and might bring pressure to bear that stops the escalation. (I don't mean to depict this purely as North Korea needs to back down -- as if the US were all innocent. However, North Korea is a dictatorship that's fairly bellicose. I also think it's also headed by a regime that's on its way out, hence needs to do something to rally people behind it -- rather than have them thinking about life beyond it.)

                                But this is a bit different because it's not a matter of this or that news report being mistaken, but a now weeks long pattern of saber-rattling and escalation between sides along with lots of commentary and analysis from different camps to follow. This isn't like 9/11 where there was to most people, including you and me, no forewarning, no build up, just an attack and the hours of of rescue and destruction that followed.

                                Email appears to be going mad, your earlier email -- the one you're responding to here in your typical must add more fashion :) -- hasn't appeared in my inbox yet... Let me respond to that now:

                                I don't know what you've been reading, but it depends on the yield of the weapon and where it's placed. Yes, a weapon with megaton yield properly placed can with EMP devastate a large area, disrupting or, in some cases, destroying vulnerable electronics. My doubts here arise with North Korea having a high yield weapon that's reliable and that they can put in the right place. I think much of what I've read and seen backs up my doubts, naturally. I'd be really surprised if North Korea were able to pull this off or even if they had high yield nuclear weapons or reliable missile delivery systems at all. Everything points to them having low yield weapons and that their long range missile technology is not all that good.

                                Now, some might argue, "Better safe than sorry" here and I can't fault them for that. It's probably a good idea to plan for the outlier here. And to be fair to you, your subject line is about the outlier -- not what is likely, right?

                                Regards,

                                Dan

                                From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                                To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                                Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 11:39 PM
                                Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                                 
                                Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                                Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                                Jeff


                                On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                                Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                                Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                                Jeff

                                On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                                I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                                Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                                Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                                In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                                I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                                That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                                Regards,

                                Dan

                                * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.
                              • J Olson
                                Properly understood, of course no. The improper use of invisible hand analysis no more disproves the invisible hand s basic thesis than 2 + 3 = 7 disproves
                                Message 15 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
                                • 0 Attachment
                                  Properly understood, of course "no."  The improper use of invisible hand analysis no more disproves the invisible hand's basic thesis than 2 + 3 = 7 disproves math (and yes, I'm sure you'll point out that in some math systems it actually does ;-).

                                  Jeff


                                  On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 11:54 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                                   

                                  Fine, but was your answer to my question yes or no?

                                  R.

                                  Sent: Friday, April 5, 2013 9:17 AM

                                  Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                                  Invisible hand explanations are limited to explaining certain phenomena, and can be applied inappropriately (and in some cases, wildly inappropriately!), no?  For instance, people not purchasing my gigolo services could be due the invisible hand - spontaneous market cooperation - or could be because my neighbor is colluding with other town members to prevent customers from coming into town (quite understandably, but still... ;/)

                                  My observation - aided and abetted by Dan Ust, ironically, who offered a clear distinction between the Invisible Hand and the Hidden Hand to me off list - is that libertarians are so enamored of their economic analysis a la Mises of "planned chaos" and the unintended consequences of government regulation and its handmaiden bureaucracies that they are highly skeptical in general principle of collusion - that is, they tend to dismiss the idea that very bad government actions can come about through planning and collusion involving people in high places.  As an example, libertarians tend to discount the 1001 "coincidences" of 9/11 as the result of "invisible hands" such as government incompetence or "misunderstandings" or "shit happens" (e.g., the unprecedented collapse of steel-structure buildings, the inability of the USAF and Air National Guard to get interceptors airborne in a timely fashion, the unprecedented disappearance of the black boxes, strangely large put options on commercial airlines before the event, foreknowledge of the collapse of WTC 7, evidence from the collapsed buildings immediately shipped out, the disregarding of knowledge of an impending event by the intelligence and political community, etc.).

                                  My own belief, which I think the evidence powerfully warrants, is that most if not all major government policies and acts are of a "Hidden Hand" variety.  The Invisible Hand, of course, cannot be overthrown, but it can be severely warped by influential parties.  An example of such warpage is the Fed and all the massive economic distortions it has wrought.  Most libertarians believe the Fed is merely a manifestation of economic ignorance.  I believe that is an ignorant view.  Institutions like the Fed don't spring into existence accidentally, but with extreme malice aforethought.  What the USG is doing now with North Korea is no more accidental or motivated by random factors than was the Gulf of Tonkin.  All major top-level governmental policies result from planning and serve the ends of money and power for the Elite.  As Jesse V. said: "When you wonder why someone wants war, look who's getting paid."


                                  Jeff




                                  On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 10:29 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                                   
                                  > Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of 
                                  > Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war 
                                  > occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible 
                                  > hand"-type activities, but through planning)

                                  Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence?

                                  R.


                                  Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 8:39 PM
                                  Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                                  Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                                  Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                                  Jeff


                                  On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                                  Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                                  Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                                  Jeff


                                  On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                                   
                                  I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                                  Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                                  Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                                  In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                                  I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                                  That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                                  Regards,

                                  Dan

                                  * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

                                  From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                                  To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                                  Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                                  Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                                   
                                  An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

                                  The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

                                  One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

                                  Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

                                  Jeff












                                • Joshua Katz
                                  None that I can think of. At least, no commonly used ones. I can, of course, invent one, but that seems like a silly game. I can t think of what a system
                                  Message 16 of 20 , Apr 5, 2013
                                  • 0 Attachment
                                    None that I can think of.  At least, no commonly used ones.  I can, of course, invent one, but that seems like a silly game.  I can't think of what a system with that equation can represent.  (In general, it's far easier if the sum comes out less than it should, rather than greater - then it's just a coset of the natural numbers.)


                                    On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 9:51 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                                     

                                    Properly understood, of course "no."  The improper use of invisible hand analysis no more disproves the invisible hand's basic thesis than 2 + 3 = 7 disproves math (and yes, I'm sure you'll point out that in some math systems it actually does ;-).

                                    Jeff


                                    On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 11:54 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                                     

                                    Fine, but was your answer to my question yes or no?

                                    R.

                                    Sent: Friday, April 5, 2013 9:17 AM

                                    Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                                    Invisible hand explanations are limited to explaining certain phenomena, and can be applied inappropriately (and in some cases, wildly inappropriately!), no?  For instance, people not purchasing my gigolo services could be due the invisible hand - spontaneous market cooperation - or could be because my neighbor is colluding with other town members to prevent customers from coming into town (quite understandably, but still... ;/)

                                    My observation - aided and abetted by Dan Ust, ironically, who offered a clear distinction between the Invisible Hand and the Hidden Hand to me off list - is that libertarians are so enamored of their economic analysis a la Mises of "planned chaos" and the unintended consequences of government regulation and its handmaiden bureaucracies that they are highly skeptical in general principle of collusion - that is, they tend to dismiss the idea that very bad government actions can come about through planning and collusion involving people in high places.  As an example, libertarians tend to discount the 1001 "coincidences" of 9/11 as the result of "invisible hands" such as government incompetence or "misunderstandings" or "shit happens" (e.g., the unprecedented collapse of steel-structure buildings, the inability of the USAF and Air National Guard to get interceptors airborne in a timely fashion, the unprecedented disappearance of the black boxes, strangely large put options on commercial airlines before the event, foreknowledge of the collapse of WTC 7, evidence from the collapsed buildings immediately shipped out, the disregarding of knowledge of an impending event by the intelligence and political community, etc.).

                                    My own belief, which I think the evidence powerfully warrants, is that most if not all major government policies and acts are of a "Hidden Hand" variety.  The Invisible Hand, of course, cannot be overthrown, but it can be severely warped by influential parties.  An example of such warpage is the Fed and all the massive economic distortions it has wrought.  Most libertarians believe the Fed is merely a manifestation of economic ignorance.  I believe that is an ignorant view.  Institutions like the Fed don't spring into existence accidentally, but with extreme malice aforethought.  What the USG is doing now with North Korea is no more accidental or motivated by random factors than was the Gulf of Tonkin.  All major top-level governmental policies result from planning and serve the ends of money and power for the Elite.  As Jesse V. said: "When you wonder why someone wants war, look who's getting paid."


                                    Jeff




                                    On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 10:29 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                                     
                                    > Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of 
                                    > Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war 
                                    > occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible 
                                    > hand"-type activities, but through planning)

                                    Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence?

                                    R.


                                    Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 8:39 PM
                                    Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering



                                    Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                                    Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                                    Jeff


                                    On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                                    Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                                    Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                                    Jeff


                                    On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                                     
                                    I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                                    Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                                    Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                                    In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                                    I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                                    That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                                    Regards,

                                    Dan

                                    * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men.

                                    From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                                    To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                                    Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2013 11:24 AM
                                    Subject: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                                     
                                    An EMP strike from North Korea.  From what I've read, that is not at all far-fetched.  They have the missile technology, it seems, and the miniaturized nukes necessary to do the job.  I've read it has a satellite in orbit   What payload does the satellite carry?  Wouldn't a small nuke be possible?

                                    The satellite detonates the nuke a few hundred miles above North America.  From what I know of EMP effects, this would send us back to the horse and carriage days in the blink of an eye.  Except we no longer know how to run a horse and carriage-style economy; nor could such an economy support the 400 million people in the US.

                                    One minute you're on the internet happily debating 9/11 with Dan Ust - the next your computer shuts down, as does all your electricity.  Your car won't start.  Phones don't work.  It's still kinda cold here, but the heater won't come on.  Food begins to rot.  No water available without electric pumps.  A rather messy picture, no?

                                    Yes, around here at least, there's always roadkill, but...

                                    Jeff













                                  • Dan
                                    Of course, no reason one can t invent one, but kind of pointless -- almost like redefining the terms or operations so they fit the equation. But that s like
                                    Message 17 of 20 , Apr 6, 2013
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                                      Of course, no reason one can't invent one, but kind of pointless -- almost like redefining the terms or operations so they fit the equation. But that's like redefining the rules to win at a game of chess. And, yeah, my first thought was something like modular arithmetic.

                                      Regards,

                                      Dan

                                      From: Joshua Katz <jalankatz@...>
                                      To: leftlibertarian2 <LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com>
                                      Sent: Friday, April 5, 2013 9:54 PM
                                      Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                                       
                                      None that I can think of.  At least, no commonly used ones.  I can, of course, invent one, but that seems like a silly game.  I can't think of what a system with that equation can represent.  (In general, it's far easier if the sum comes out less than it should, rather than greater - then it's just a coset of the natural numbers.)

                                      On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 9:51 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                                      Properly understood, of course "no."  The improper use of invisible hand analysis no more disproves the invisible hand's basic thesis than 2 + 3 = 7 disproves math (and yes, I'm sure you'll point out that in some math systems it actually does ;-).

                                      Jeff


                                      On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 11:54 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                                      Fine, but was your answer to my question yes or no?

                                      R.

                                      Sent: Friday, April 5, 2013 9:17 AM
                                      Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                                      Invisible hand explanations are limited to explaining certain phenomena, and can be applied inappropriately (and in some cases, wildly inappropriately!), no?  For instance, people not purchasing my gigolo services could be due the invisible hand - spontaneous market cooperation - or could be because my neighbor is colluding with other town members to prevent customers from coming into town (quite understandably, but still... ;/)

                                      My observation - aided and abetted by Dan Ust, ironically, who offered a clear distinction between the Invisible Hand and the Hidden Hand to me off list - is that libertarians are so enamored of their economic analysis a la Mises of "planned chaos" and the unintended consequences of government regulation and its handmaiden bureaucracies that they are highly skeptical in general principle of collusion - that is, they tend to dismiss the idea that very bad government actions can come about through planning and collusion involving people in high places.  As an example, libertarians tend to discount the 1001 "coincidences" of 9/11 as the result of "invisible hands" such as government incompetence or "misunderstandings" or "shit happens" (e.g., the unprecedented collapse of steel-structure buildings, the inability of the USAF and Air National Guard to get interceptors airborne in a timely fashion, the unprecedented disappearance of the black boxes, strangely large put options on commercial airlines before the event, foreknowledge of the collapse of WTC 7, evidence from the collapsed buildings immediately shipped out, the disregarding of knowledge of an impending event by the intelligence and political community, etc.).

                                      My own belief, which I think the evidence powerfully warrants, is that most if not all major government policies and acts are of a "Hidden Hand" variety.  The Invisible Hand, of course, cannot be overthrown, but it can be severely warped by influential parties.  An example of such warpage is the Fed and all the massive economic distortions it has wrought.  Most libertarians believe the Fed is merely a manifestation of economic ignorance.  I believe that is an ignorant view.  Institutions like the Fed don't spring into existence accidentally, but with extreme malice aforethought.  What the USG is doing now with North Korea is no more accidental or motivated by random factors than was the Gulf of Tonkin.  All major top-level governmental policies result from planning and serve the ends of money and power for the Elite.  As Jesse V. said: "When you wonder why someone wants war, look who's getting paid."


                                      Jeff
                                    • Dan
                                      That label and that distinction is one I believe I got from reading Nozick... But hidden hand and invisible hand explanations aren t mutually exhaustive. A
                                      Message 18 of 20 , Apr 6, 2013
                                      • 0 Attachment
                                        That label and that distinction is one I believe I got from reading Nozick... But "hidden hand" and "invisible hand" explanations aren't mutually exhaustive. A hidden hand is, of course, when the social phenomenon is explained as the work of a conspiracy; an invisible one, when it's the explained as an unintended outcome -- human action without human design. But there is also what might be called "open hand" -- I think that's the accepted term -- which would be just an openly coordinated outcome -- as when someone or some group intention plans something and it, for the most part, works. Coincidence and error are, of course, other explanations. I actually think that someone looking at social phenomena should use coincidence or randomness as a null hypothesis to test others against -- sort of as a check to avoid the natural tendency to find patterns, such as the lunar effect, where there are none. In general, there are all sorts of known explanatory biases that affect almost everyone and much progress has been made by noting them and trying to guard against them.

                                        Not that said, I think I agreed with you off list about some libertarians having a bias toward non-hidden hand explanations. I don't believe this is so bad. The hidden hand explanation does have to present more evidence because it's simply too easy to see hidden hands everywhere -- in the same way that looking at clouds you'll see all kinds of animals, people, machines, and the like. There has to be a way to filter the noise. The difference, however, is that real live conspiracies don't really want to be found out and usually take pains to remain hidden. In the more successful ones, they either get lucky or might have some insights in to how people might miss clues or be misdirected. (By the way, I don't think the best way to cover one's tracks is always to make things look random, coincidental, or the outcome of other processes. Instead, it often seems to me that having a scapegoat -- or a fall conspiracy -- is more likely to succeed.)

                                        But other libertarians do seem to believe many government policies -- not necessarily particular events like 9/11 -- are intended or planned at some level to have goals far different than those publicly proclaimed. Sometimes, though, these goals are publicly proclaimed in one era and forgotten in another, such as public education, which seems to have been first pushed for in the US to turn all those Catholic immigrants into obedient citizens with the dominant Protestant culture of the time or drug laws which were often openly bigoted when first enacted (or had a huge bigotry component that sold them to the general public; no doubt, it wasn't purely that "noble" government officials wanted to ban opium for the "public good," but knew only if they stoked anti-Chinese sentiment would they get their "good" policy through) or the set up the FRS or a host of other regulations of commerce (almost all of which involve vested interests lobbying to protect and expand their positions). That seems as widely accepted in the libertarian movement. But in all these cases the hidden hand still had to be proved when it wasn't blatantly obvious. (I don't think you'd argue this point.)

                                        And there's nothing wrong with asking, and it should be a habit with public policy of asking, Rothbard's question: Who benefits? (Though invisible hand explanations usually explain not so much who intends to benefit, but what actually happens. For instance, businesses (or workers) lobby to set up some restriction, which could be a business license to make sure only quality products are on the market. This then creates a black market for products that don't meet the standard. (I was going to use housing certificates, which is something I'm familiar with, but then I recalled the few cases I knew about seemed much more motivated not by landlords trying to keep out competitors -- though, no doubt, some them were for this, though housing is so restricted anyway, it probably matters so little to them -- but Whites who don't want Latinos moving into their neighborhoods, such as when a family buys a home, then subdivides it into flats or rooms to allow more people to live there. At least, that's how it looked to me, especially when Latino homeowners were the ones protesting the housing law when it was voted into force.*)

                                        There's also a big difference between a major policy and an event like 9/11. A major policy is likely partly hidden hand, though it likely involves buy in from others to make sure there's no major resistance to it. For instance, perhaps the most major policy in US history, well maybe the second most considering the secession from Britain be the first most, was the Constitution. I think it shows the effects of buy in by reducing some of the more heinous aspects, having denumerable powers (which was an abject failure, no?), and afterward tagging on the Bill of Rights. A major policy is likely to take longer to craft -- enough time for opposition to organize, so, hence, the buy-in. In this case, anti-Federalists had to be broken up or co-opted and that worked quite well, given that the Constitution's central government has been in power ever since. An event might actually be easier to have a hidden hand act more directly and with far less attenuation. And the official theory of 9/11 and its variants is just this: AQ conspirators made it happen...

                                        I'm not saying it's 100% correct, but that's the official conspiracy theory, no? I don't think anyone is arguing 9/11 happened via an invisible hand or coincidence or open policy. An invisible hand here would mean likely that no one intended the attacks to happen, but all parties doing their own thing made it happen. A coincidence would be something like "Thousands of people died and several buildings were destroyed that day because the airplane guidance just went haywire on four planes," no? AFAIK, no one's arguing that anywhere.

                                        Now, of course, you mean explanations in terms of government involvement -- not as in there was no conspiracy, but there was no government conspiracy. (Think of Wohlstetter's _Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision_, for example. A big chunk his argument, IIRC, is that people have biases in how they interpret information as well as in what information they even bother to look for in the first place. In his view, e.g., the US expected Japanese sabotage attacks and not a carrier launch air attack. By expecting this, it biased them in what they looked for and how they interpreted what they saw -- as well as in what they planned for, such as having ships and aircraft together so that they were easier to guard against saboteurs, which made them harder to guard against air attack.)

                                        Regards,

                                        Dan

                                        * Of course, things might be more complicated. Where I saw this happen, there was a state law that enabled the municipalities to make their local laws. This is known as, IIRC, enabling legislation. In theory, municipalities could simply not enact a local law to cover this. It could be the local motivation was bigotry, though the impetus for the state level enabling legislation might have been something different -- maybe some landlords association or maybe just ideological (I mean people who seriously believe this is a good idea, such as firefighters who might argue that high occupancy leads to more death-related fires).

                                        From: J Olson <jlolson53@...>
                                        To: LeftLibertarian2@yahoogroups.com
                                        Sent: Friday, April 5, 2013 12:17 PM
                                        Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                                         
                                        Invisible hand explanations are limited to explaining certain phenomena, and can be applied inappropriately (and in some cases, wildly inappropriately!), no?  For instance, people not purchasing my gigolo services could be due the invisible hand - spontaneous market cooperation - or could be because my neighbor is colluding with other town members to prevent customers from coming into town (quite understandably, but still... ;/)

                                        My observation - aided and abetted by Dan Ust, ironically, who offered a clear distinction between the Invisible Hand and the Hidden Hand to me off list - is that libertarians are so enamored of their economic analysis a la Mises of "planned chaos" and the unintended consequences of government regulation and its handmaiden bureaucracies that they are highly skeptical in general principle of collusion - that is, they tend to dismiss the idea that very bad government actions can come about through planning and collusion involving people in high places.  As an example, libertarians tend to discount the 1001 "coincidences" of 9/11 as the result of "invisible hands" such as government incompetence or "misunderstandings" or "shit happens" (e.g., the unprecedented collapse of steel-structure buildings, the inability of the USAF and Air National Guard to get interceptors airborne in a timely fashion, the unprecedented disappearance of the black boxes, strangely large put options on commercial airlines before the event, foreknowledge of the collapse of WTC 7, evidence from the collapsed buildings immediately shipped out, the disregarding of knowledge of an impending event by the intelligence and political community, etc.).

                                        My own belief, which I think the evidence powerfully warrants, is that most if not all major government policies and acts are of a "Hidden Hand" variety.  The Invisible Hand, of course, cannot be overthrown, but it can be severely warped by influential parties.  An example of such warpage is the Fed and all the massive economic distortions it has wrought.  Most libertarians believe the Fed is merely a manifestation of economic ignorance.  I believe that is an ignorant view.  Institutions like the Fed don't spring into existence accidentally, but with extreme malice aforethought.  What the USG is doing now with North Korea is no more accidental or motivated by random factors than was the Gulf of Tonkin.  All major top-level governmental policies result from planning and serve the ends of money and power for the Elite.  As Jesse V. said: "When you wonder why someone wants war, look who's getting paid."


                                        Jeff

                                        On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 10:29 AM, Roderick Long <berserkrl@...> wrote:
                                        > Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of 
                                        > Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war 
                                        > occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible 
                                        > hand"-type activities, but through planning)

                                        Do you really regard invisible-hand explanations as a form of explanation by coincidence?

                                        R.


                                        Sent: Thursday, April 4, 2013 8:39 PM
                                        Subject: Re: [LeftLibertarian2] The Worst Imaginable Penalty for US Warmongering

                                        Two things are clear now: 1) there is a campaign to provoke North Korea into a military action, along the lines of Roosevelt provoking Japan; 2) there is a campaign of fearmongering being conducted around the EMP theme (a major book on the subject was authored by a man who fits the MO of a CIA disinformation spook).  These two elements seem to point to the intent to use an EMP event or the threat of such to justify more military geopolitical adventurism by the US or, if you're of an Alex Jones bent, an endgame that is aimed at radically reducing - i.e., taming - the power of the US populace.  The massive deprivation that would follow an effective EMP attack would provide a superb gateway for a radical increase in government power as people are compelled to become more dependent on it for survival and protection).  

                                        Since I don't subscribe to the Dan Ust School of Coincidence (that major events like 9/11 or war occur by accident or incompetence or "invisible hand"-type activities, but through planning), I must conclude that (1) and (2) are occurring because the Powers That Be have reasons for them to occur.

                                        Jeff


                                        On Thu, Apr 4, 2013 at 10:24 PM, J Olson <jlolson53@...> wrote:
                                        Your comment that most of the country would be unaffected, Dan, flies in the face of everything that I've been reading.  A high-altitude detonation pretty much right over my house would, according to what I've read thus far, have a devastating effect nationwide.  I'm not sure where you're getting your info on this.

                                        Not that I wouldn't love to believe you on this!

                                        Jeff


                                        On Wed, Apr 3, 2013 at 1:18 PM, Dan <dan_ust@...> wrote:
                                         
                                        I'm skeptical of North Korea's capability of carrying out such a strike. There's a lot to a EMP strike that has to go right for it be effective. They'd have to put a warhead on target and detonate it with little margin for error. So far, looking at their low success rate with missile and space technology, I doubt they can do this. They'd probably be much more effective if they put the show on the road, say, launching from a ship closer to the US or even trying to sneak a nuke into the country (or some other country, such as South Korea or Japan).

                                        Overall, I believe the risk here is very low. I mean the risk of an NK EMP attack on the US. That said, it's relatively easy to guard against the effects of such an attack -- presuming no missile defense works and the detonation happens. One obvious thing is just to be outside the effective range of the EMP. For most of the US, that's the case. I doubt NK can carry out a successful EMP attack that covers a good chunk of the US. At best, they might be able to just try to strike one small area and hope this causes some damage.

                                        Another thing one can do is build a Faraday cage for electronics. This is relatively cheap and simple. This won't, of course, work in terms of protecting everything outside it. You might prevent your stuff from being fried, but the grid might go -- probably not in the Dakotas unless the NK strike is way off target, but probably if you're in their strike zone. And one can always just have a stockpile of food, water, and other essentials -- as one probably should have anyhow for other emergencies and more typical power outages from storms. (A few years ago, as you know, in Vermont, we got dumped on and the main problem was local roads being washed out completely and power lines being downed. If you have enough food, a well, and a backup generator (or an RTG like I won't say who:), in the affected area, you only had to contend with going stir crazy.)

                                        In fact, if I were in their planning, and assuming my speculations about the capabilities is on the money, I'd probably recommend and EMP attack against South Korea and Japan, especially since this might mess up some of the battlefield communications between US and US ally forces. It's still be a last ditch effort, since once an eMP attack is carried out, I imagine the US 's and its allies' forces would have enough hardened equipment on site to recover and counterattack and, regardless, could quickly bring to bear more forces to counterattack from other locations. Of course, a local nuclear war might cause enough damage to NK's adversaries to effective stave off some sort of collapse. I still have my doubts, but, unless you count the US bombing of Japan as a local nuclear war, no one has really fought one yet and all wars tend to have their surprises...

                                        I just don't think NK has much in the way of being able to sustain itself in such a war -- it'd probably run out of nukes quickly and the ability to deliver them would likely fall apart after their first strike. Their ground forces might have a numerical advantage and there's always the attacker having some advantage in choosing when and where to attack, but my guess is in the conventional apart these would quickly collapse through loss of command and control and direct attack. I'm sure that the US and its allies have already war gamed much of this and are just waiting to test their plans out. (Which is not to say it'll proceed like a chess game here. Iraq 1 didn't, from my reading, and the US coalition made several serious blunders, though the Iraqis failed to capitalize on any of them.*)

                                        That said, a strike on South Korea, Japan, or the US would likely have some ramifications for the economy and maybe some direct impact on those of us in North America. I just don't think this is going to mean the complete collapse of the electronic infrastructure in North America with the ensuing chaos some preppers are anticipating.

                                        Regards,

                                        Dan

                                        * Part of which can be chalked up, I think, to not allowing local initiative, inexperience, and purging the Iraqi military over and over until it was basically an officer corps of yes men._,_._,___


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