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Predictions

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  • Jesse Walker
    Elsewhere, bloggers are publishing detailed predictions of who is going to carry which states. If this were an office pool, I d follow suit; but since it s
    Message 1 of 3 , Nov 1, 2004
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      Elsewhere, bloggers are publishing detailed predictions of who is going
      to carry which states. If this were an office pool, I'd follow suit; but
      since it's just a quick post on election eve, I'll stick to saying this:

      It's going to be close, but I think Kerry is going to take it.

      Which surprises me, since I've been predicting a Bush victory all year.
      But I've changed my mind. The Republicans just look more desperate to
      me. It's a dangerous assumption -- cf. Iraq -- but I figure they know
      something I don't.

      More predictions: Nader won't top 1%, and Badnarik will not get more
      than 300,000 votes. The Republicans will keep both the House and the
      Senate. And if Bush *does* win, it will not be because, as the cliche
      goes, more voters would like to have a beer with him. Who would want to
      have a beer with Bush? He doesn't drink. It would be awkward.

      -Jesse
    • terry12622000
      I think Bush will get it, moral issues are the lead issues so far in the exit polls. The fundamentalist and other social conservatives will come out in force
      Message 2 of 3 , Nov 2, 2004
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        I think Bush will get it, moral issues are the lead issues so far in
        the exit polls. The fundamentalist and other social conservatives
        will come out in force to vote for Bush, now a percentage will vote
        for Kerry but the greatest majority will vote for Bush. The main
        issue abortion. I know for some that is the only issue. Reports in
        Chattanooga are that at least one is a poll worker and made his
        thoughts very clear.--- In LeftLibertarian@yahoogroups.com, Jesse
        Walker <jwalkernot@e...> wrote:
        >
        > Elsewhere, bloggers are publishing detailed predictions of who is
        going
        > to carry which states. If this were an office pool, I'd follow
        suit; but
        > since it's just a quick post on election eve, I'll stick to saying
        this:
        >
        > It's going to be close, but I think Kerry is going to take it.
        >
        > Which surprises me, since I've been predicting a Bush victory all
        year.
        > But I've changed my mind. The Republicans just look more desperate
        to
        > me. It's a dangerous assumption -- cf. Iraq -- but I figure they
        know
        > something I don't.
        >
        > More predictions: Nader won't top 1%, and Badnarik will not get
        more
        > than 300,000 votes. The Republicans will keep both the House and
        the
        > Senate. And if Bush *does* win, it will not be because, as the
        cliche
        > goes, more voters would like to have a beer with him. Who would
        want to
        > have a beer with Bush? He doesn't drink. It would be awkward.
        >
        > -Jesse
      • Jesse Walker
        Everyone should take responsibility for their pre-election predictions, ... OK, I got that right, but I wasn t exactly going out on a limb there. ... Should ve
        Message 3 of 3 , Nov 3, 2004
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          Everyone should take responsibility for their pre-election predictions,
          so here's my mea culpas:

          > It's going to be close...

          OK, I got that right, but I wasn't exactly going out on a limb there.

          > ...but I think Kerry is going to take it. Which surprises me, since
          > I've been predicting a Bush victory all year.

          Should've stuck with your first thought, Walker.

          > Nader won't top 1%

          Got that right.

          > Badnarik will not get more than 300,000 votes.

          Looks like he's just under 400,000. My usually reliable rule of thumb
          for predicting Libertarian vote totals -- find the lowest figure being
          publicly predicted within the party, then go lower -- has failed me.

          I can console myself by reflecting on all the other predictions that
          went awry. It wasn't a dead heat. It wasn't a landslide either. Young
          people didn't turn out in droves. Ohio did not become another Florida.
          Florida did not become another Florida. There was no electoral/popular
          split. And Badnarik didn't get to play spoiler.
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