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Re: [LandCafe] Re: Four Horsemen

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  • Jock Coats
    Well, I was thinking the other day, maybe Keynes was right about animal spirits . I just think the animal spirits are not scared of investment per se, they
    Message 1 of 90 , Feb 1, 2013
      Well, I was thinking the other day, maybe Keynes was right about "animal spirits". I just think the "animal spirits" are not scared of investment per se, they are scared of the uncertainty added to the market by government intervention.

      I think true valuation of many kinds of asset and their normal expected returns, already distorted by the artificial credit fuelled boom, has been made so much more difficult because nobody even known what the governments of the world think they should do about it. SO the animal spirits are being scared off not by lack of demand etc, but by state interference making it virtually impossible to spot a good opportunity at the moment.

      Jock

      On 1 Feb 2013, at 17:04, "harrypollard" <harrypollard@...> wrote:

      > Something controlled economy advocates haven't appreciated is that there are
      > unintended consequences to their actions.
      >
      > Their policies to drop the interest rate (to zero) to make capital less
      > expensive also reduces interest in tying up one's capital for next to
      > nothing.
      >
      > I have a small CD that is ancient. I just leave it in the bank. The other
      > day I noted that my interest rate is now 0.45%. Heck, I might as well get it
      > out and buy a new and larger TV set and get an immediate return in pleasure
      > (I think).
      >
      > So. on a much larger scale, this may be the thinking of larger firms. Of
      > course, there is always land-value speculation to invest in.
      >
      > Harry
      >
      > ***********************
      > The Alumni Group
      > Henry George School
      > Of Los Angeles
      > Tujunga CA 91042
      > (818) 352-4141
      > ***********************
      >
      > -----Original Message-----
      > From: LandCafe@yahoogroups.com [mailto:LandCafe@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
      > Of Jock Coats
      > Sent: Sunday, January 27, 2013 3:26 PM
      > To: LandCafe@yahoogroups.com
      > Subject: Re: [LandCafe] Re: Four Horsemen
      >
      > Do you think that is uninvested corporate cash balances? We have a similar
      > issue here on that score.
      >
      > Some say it's evidence of "Animal Spirits" :)
      >
      > On 27 Jan 2013, at 23:16, "harrypollard" harrypollard@...> wrote:
      >
      > > [Attachment(s) from harrypollard included below]
      > >
      > >
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      > > Roy,
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > Demand deposits have continued to zoom.
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > Attached is a graph showing the enormous increase in demand deposits.
      > Apparently an enormous increase in the money supply without hyperinflation.
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > Harry
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > ***********************
      > >
      > > The Alumni Group
      > >
      > > Henry George School
      > >
      > > Of Los Angeles
      > >
      > > Tujunga CA 91042
      > >
      > > (818) 352-4141
      > >
      > > ***********************
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > < span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Bookman Old
      > > Style","serif";color:black;">
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > From: LandCafe@yahoogroups.com [mailto:LandCafe@yahoogroups.com] On
      > > Behalf Of roy_langston
      > > Sent: Friday, January 25, 2013 4:48 PM
      > > To: LandCafe@yahoogroups.com
      > > Subject: [LandCafe] Re: Four Horsemen
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > --- In LandCafe@yahoogroups.com, &q uot;harrypollard" wrote:
      > >
      > > > Demand deposits are not the only kind of money but they are the largest
      > component by far.
      > >
      > > How so?
      > >
      > > > Wiki mentions that in 2010 of the broad money supply (M2) only
      > > > $915.7 billion of the $8,853.4 billion was physical coins and paper
      > money.
      > >
      > > We know currency is a small fraction of the money supply (and half of it
      > is held overseas, where it circulates unregulated and has no effect on
      > domestic inflation). But how much of M2 is demand deposits? Your previous
      > message said demand deposits had increased from $310G to $460G in 2008. So
      > currency ($916G) is nearly double demand deposits ($460G). And now you seem
      > to have twigged that M2 is $8853G, a sum nearly _20_ times demand deposits.
      > >
      > > Your "argument" has fallen apart under the attack of your own "supporting"
      > evidence.
      > >
      > > > Nothing you say addresses the lack of inflation effect from the almost
      > 50% increase in demand deposits in a few months.
      > >
      > > That claim is false. I addressed it directly, and provided a source
      > showing that lending declined by far more over a somewhat longer period.
      > >
      > > > If there were countervailing
      > > > financial actions, it doesn't show in measurement of total demand
      > deposits which rise precipitously over long periods.
      > >
      > > Because demand deposits are not the only kind of money. Look at the
      > grahphs I provided links to.
      > >
      > > -- Roy Langston
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      >
      > --
      > Jock Coats
      > Warden's Flat 1e, J Block Morrell Hall, OXFORD, OX3 0FF
      > m: 07769 695767 skype:jock.coats?call
      > jock.coats@... http://jockcoats.me
      >
      > ------------------------------------
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      >

      --
      Jock Coats
      Warden's Flat 1e, J Block Morrell Hall, OXFORD, OX3 0FF
      m: 07769 695767 skype:jock.coats?call
      jock.coats@... http://jockcoats.me
    • roy_langston
      ... Inflation is shorter and more descriptive. ... Having a label and definition for the concept helps people share information about it. ... Maybe that s
      Message 90 of 90 , Feb 1, 2013
        --- In LandCafe@yahoogroups.com, "harrypollard" wrote:

        > So why not say they are changing systematically?

        "Inflation" is shorter and more descriptive.

        > How does calling rising prices inflation help to "understand how, when and why"?

        Having a label and definition for the concept helps people share information about it.

        > Whereas inflation in its original meaning indicates that the money issuer has done something.

        Maybe that's part of it: the apologists for bankster privilege want to conceal the fact that it is private commercial banks that are issuing the money, not government.

        -- Roy Langston
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