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Lee Rhiannon on Greens Results and Preferences

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  • simongb2
    ... preference deals and how the Greens fared in the 2004 election ... will be one of odious preference deals that have delivered the Howard government control
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 14, 2004
      >How Howard won control of the Senate with Labor and Democrat
      preference deals and how the Greens fared in the 2004 election
      >Lee Rhiannon
      >Greens NSW MP
      >The 2004 election memory for the Victorian ALP and the Democrats
      will be one of odious preference deals that have delivered the Howard
      government control of the Senate.
      >In Victoria Labor and the Democrats are responsible for the Family
      First candidate winning the last Senate seat instead of the Greens.
      Family First received preferences from both Labor and the Democrats,
      who have effectively delivered control of the Senate to the
      conservative side of politics. The Greens polled 8.65% of the Senate
      vote, four times more than the 1.9% of the vote Family First picked
      >In South Australia Family First also received similar preference
      flows from Labor and Democrat. In SA Family First look like gaining
      Democrat preferences, which means Family First would be in front of
      the Greens and the Greens could not leapfrog Labor. Labor looks like
      winning the last seat on Greens preferences. The Democrats preference
      decision is likely to cost the Greens another Senate seat.
      >In NSW the Greens polled a solid 7.16% of the Senate vote, an
      increase of nearly 3% on the 2001 vote. Despite this, Labor looks
      like winning the last Senate seat in NSW on the Greens' preferences.
      The scenario may have been reversed if the Democrats had preferenced
      the Greens instead of Glenn Druery from Liberals for Forests and Fred
      Nile's Christian Democrats.
      >Without Democrat preferences, the Greens in NSW were unable to get
      in front of Labor. Labor also directed preferences to Liberals for
      Forests and then one-third to Fred Nile.
      >Tim Colebatch in the Age (11.10.04) summed it up:
      >"How can Steve Fielding of Family First win one of Victoria's Senate
      seats with just 45,260 votes? In short, because virtually every other
      party - including Labor and the Democrats - preferred Family First to
      the Greens and practically every other party."
      >And don't believe the pundits alleging that the Greens vote
      collapsed in this election. The Australian Greens gained a record
      vote of 7.5% national average in the Senate, an increase of about
      2.5% on our 2001 vote.
      >We now look like having four senators with Christine Milne
      (Tasmania) and Rachel Siewert (WA) joining Kerry Nettle and Bob
      Brown, and there is a chance Drew Hutton from Queensland will join
      them. Yes we lost Cunningham, but without proportional representation
      it is hard for a non-major party to hold onto a lower house seat in a
      general election.
      >The Greens polled in double figures in 14 NSW seats, including over
      20% in 3 seats (Cunningham, Grayndler and Sydney). At the 2001
      election, there were only 3 seats in double figures.
      >The Greens vote increased significantly on Sydney's North Shore. In
      the six North Shore seats (Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Mackellar,
      North Sydney and Warringah), the Greens polled an average of 12%.
      This compares with 5.9% in the 2001 election.
      >In western Sydney and rural NSW the Greens are winning more votes.
      In 12 Western Sydney seats in 2001, we polled an average of 3.7%.
      This time, that average is 5.9%. Our rural vote went from an average
      of 4.2% in 2001 to 6.1% this time.
      >And remember to reject any talk that Howard and the Coalition have a
      mandate - he won 46.3% of the primary vote.
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