De : Solar Influences Data analysis Center [mailto:sidc@...]
Envoyé : vendredi 15 juin 2012 14:13
À : RegisteredUsers@...
Objet : GEOALERT SIDC

:Issued: 2012 Jun 15 1211 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU167
UGEOA 30512 20615 1202/ 9930/
11152 20152 30152
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 15 Jun 2012 until 17 Jun 2012 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jun 2012 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jun 2012 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 004 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jun 2012 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 016
COMMENT: A fast solar plasma cloud - coronal mass ejection or CME - erupted into the direction of the Earth on June 14. The cloud was associated with a long duration M1.9 flare peaking at 14:35UT. The cloud was first visible at 14:09UT in STEREO B/COR2 images. A speed estimation based on STEREO B COR2 images, gives a value above 1000 km/s. This means that the shock preceding the plasma cloud might arrive within 2 days. We expect also the cloud itself to arrive at Earth. This CME might catch up with the CME of June 13. We expect the arrival of this cannibalistic phenomenon for late June 16, early June 17. Geomagnetic disturbances are possible.
The geomagnetic conditions at the moment are quiet. The sunspot groups that were responsible for the flares of the past days, persist in flaring in the C level. Another M-flare is possible.




TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 083, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20615 1202/ 14///
10162 21491 3004/ 4//// 80105 91020
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
14 1252 1435 1556 S17E06 M1.9 1N 1400 IV/2 77 1504 fast full halo CME
END

UGEOR 30512 20615 1202/ 14/08 15105
10077 2//// 3//// 4542/ 50720 60046 20916 18300
10081 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50150 60039 31523 15100
10082 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50080 60015 20708 00000
10083 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50060 60009 11912 02000
10086 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60003 11010 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 13085 09632 31056 22317 57525 32007 22309 31408 33008
13411 21405 34012 30127 31518
USSPS 32404 14084 09922 31057 21116 57518 32005 20810 21407 33007
12111 21403 34009 31526 24414 35008 30829 24407 USSPS 21305 14151 12332 34007 11712 2/809 32007 20510 31314 31055
20616 51522 33010 31926 51313 36007 31528 51315 USSPS 81202 14033 12932 36007 12212 21408 35005 21010 21414 34057
21216 54523 38006 30627 24417 37007 31325 21417 UMAGF 30503 20615 1004/ 14069 1/005 21110 31000 UMAGF 31523 20615 ///// 1400/ 1/004 21111 32211

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