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Forecast for Friday and Saturday

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  • n9xtn@cox.net
    Over the last 2-3 days there has been persistent shower and thunderstorm activity over south-central Kansas. This should begin to diminish on Friday and
    Message 1 of 7 , Jun 30, 2004
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      Over the last 2-3 days there has been persistent shower and thunderstorm activity over south-central Kansas. This should begin to diminish on Friday and Saturday could be dry. If nothing else, the high pressure starting to move in late Friday should keep the showers confined to the afternoon.

      There is still a lot of variation in the wind forecasts. I think the surface winds will be quiet enough to let us launch at 8:45am. At the moment, Sunflower should be OK as the forecast tracks will be to the south or southeast but not as far as Wichita. It's possible, though, that we'd have to use McPherson if the upper winds get a little stronger.

      Morning temps should be about 70 at 8am and into the mid 80s by noon. It should be relatively humid, and with the recent rainfall you may need mud boots to go out in the fields. Should be a mix of sun and clouds.

      I'll be heading to Hutchinson with my wife and daughter after lunch tomorrow and should arrive around 7pm. I'll give a shout on 147.12+ when I'm in range.

      Anyone else having trouble reaching the rckara.org site this afternoon? I haven't been able to get on since about 1pm CDT - it worked earlier in the day.

      73 de Mark N9XTN
    • Rick von Glahn
      I ve been doing forecasts too and I agree that if we get the expected winds AND the flights all make it to 90K+ feet we re ok, however, there is a substantial
      Message 2 of 7 , Jun 30, 2004
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        I've been doing forecasts too and I agree that if we get the expected winds
        AND the flights all make it to 90K+ feet we're ok, however, there is a
        substantial easterly wind component above 65K. If a balloon were to burst at
        65K its touchdown is now in central Wichita.

        Food for thought.

        That prediction is based on the GFS 0-84 hr run at around 20 UTC today (6/30).
        I tried to do a prediction just now but wind data isn't coming through at
        READY.

        And, the "http://www.rckara.org/project_traveler/gpsl/" site worked a few
        seconds ago.

        73 -- Rick, NØKKZ

        ----------------------------
        | NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS |
        | rick@... |
        | Take note |
        ----------------------------


        > -----Original Message-----
        > From: n9xtn@... [mailto:n9xtn@...]
        > Sent: Wednesday, June 30, 2004 2:05 PM
        > To: gpsl@yahoogroups.com
        > Subject: [GPSL] Forecast for Friday and Saturday

        ...snip...

        > There is still a lot of variation in the wind forecasts. I
        > think the surface winds will be quiet enough to let us launch
        > at 8:45am. At the moment, Sunflower should be OK as the
        > forecast tracks will be to the south or southeast but not as
        > far as Wichita. It's possible, though, that we'd have to use
        > McPherson if the upper winds get a little stronger.

        ...snip...

        > Anyone else having trouble reaching the rckara.org site this
        > afternoon? I haven't been able to get on since about 1pm CDT
        > - it worked earlier in the day.
        >
        > 73 de Mark N9XTN
      • Mark Conner
        The 18Z Eta run shows a landing near Cheney for at 90kft burst, but about 4 mi W of ICT if it bursts at 60-65 kft. The 12Z GFS is indeed closer to Wichita for
        Message 3 of 7 , Jun 30, 2004
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          The 18Z Eta run shows a landing near Cheney for at 90kft burst,
          but about 4 mi W of ICT if it bursts at 60-65 kft. The 12Z GFS
          is indeed closer to Wichita for a 90kft burst and if it burst at
          60kft the landing would be just inside the I-235 loop on the
          northwest side of the city.

          Blue Sky would work fairly well in this case, as the landings
          would be about 10 mi S or SE of Hutchinson (and not far from the
          reservior in some cases). McPherson would be better, but that's
          a half-hour earlier we'll have to get up Saturday. I think the
          final decision will have to be made Friday afternoon - there's
          just too much variation from one run to the next to make it now.

          The rckara.org site is working for me now.

          73 de Mark N9XTN



          ----- Original Message -----
          From: "Rick von Glahn" <rick@...>
          To: <GPSL@yahoogroups.com>
          Sent: Wednesday, June 30, 2004 17:02
          Subject: RE: [GPSL] Forecast for Friday and Saturday


          I've been doing forecasts too and I agree that if we get the
          expected winds
          AND the flights all make it to 90K+ feet we're ok, however, there
          is a
          substantial easterly wind component above 65K. If a balloon were
          to burst at
          65K its touchdown is now in central Wichita.

          Food for thought.

          That prediction is based on the GFS 0-84 hr run at around 20 UTC
          today (6/30).
          I tried to do a prediction just now but wind data isn't coming
          through at
          READY.

          And, the "http://www.rckara.org/project_traveler/gpsl/" site
          worked a few
          seconds ago.

          73 -- Rick, NØKKZ

          ----------------------------
          | NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS |
          | rick@... |
          | Take note |
          ----------------------------
        • Harry M
          Hi Mark, Where are you staying? I have had no problem getting on the rckara site today. ... Harry - KC5TRB - Tulsa Oklahoma Research Balloons
          Message 4 of 7 , Jun 30, 2004
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            Hi Mark,

            Where are you staying?

            I have had no problem getting on the rckara site today.


            -----
            Harry - KC5TRB - Tulsa
            Oklahoma Research Balloons
            http://members.cox.net/hhm_74775/orb/
            -----



            >
            > I'll be heading to Hutchinson with my wife and daughter after lunch
            tomorrow and should arrive around 7pm. I'll give a shout on 147.12+ when
            I'm in range.
            >
            > Anyone else having trouble reaching the rckara.org site this afternoon? I
            haven't been able to get on since about 1pm CDT - it worked earlier in the
            day.
            >
            > 73 de Mark N9XTN
          • Mike Manes
            Hi Mark, Have you marked out the Class A airspace around Wichita airport and the McConnell AFB A-683 resticted area as no fly zones for GPSL? 73 de Mike
            Message 5 of 7 , Jun 30, 2004
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              Hi Mark,

              Have you marked out the Class A airspace around Wichita airport and
              the McConnell AFB A-683 resticted area as "no fly zones" for GPSL?

              73 de Mike W5VSI

              n9xtn@... wrote:
              > At the moment, Sunflower should be OK as the forecast tracks will be to the south or southeast but not as far as Wichita. It's possible, though, that we'd have to use McPherson if the upper winds get a little stronger.

              --
              Mike Manes manes@... Tel: 303-979-4899
              "Things should be made as simple as possible, but not more so." A.
              Einstein
            • Mike Manes
              I agree. We should avoid forecast overflight of any population centers and no fly zones for just that reason. 73 de Mike W5VSI ... -- Mike Manes
              Message 6 of 7 , Jun 30, 2004
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                I agree. We should avoid forecast overflight of any population
                centers and "no fly" zones for just that reason. 73 de Mike W5VSI

                Rick von Glahn wrote:
                >
                > I've been doing forecasts too and I agree that if we get the expected winds
                > AND the flights all make it to 90K+ feet we're ok, however, there is a
                > substantial easterly wind component above 65K. If a balloon were to burst at
                > 65K its touchdown is now in central Wichita.
                >
                > Food for thought.
                >
                > That prediction is based on the GFS 0-84 hr run at around 20 UTC today (6/30).
                > I tried to do a prediction just now but wind data isn't coming through at
                > READY.
                >
                > And, the "http://www.rckara.org/project_traveler/gpsl/" site worked a few
                > seconds ago.
                >
                > 73 -- Rick, NØKKZ
                >
                > ----------------------------
                > | NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS |
                > | rick@... |
                > | Take note |
                > ----------------------------
                >
                >
                > > -----Original Message-----
                > > From: n9xtn@... [mailto:n9xtn@...]
                > > Sent: Wednesday, June 30, 2004 2:05 PM
                > > To: gpsl@yahoogroups.com
                > > Subject: [GPSL] Forecast for Friday and Saturday
                >
                > ...snip...
                >
                > > There is still a lot of variation in the wind forecasts. I
                > > think the surface winds will be quiet enough to let us launch
                > > at 8:45am. At the moment, Sunflower should be OK as the
                > > forecast tracks will be to the south or southeast but not as
                > > far as Wichita. It's possible, though, that we'd have to use
                > > McPherson if the upper winds get a little stronger.
                >
                > ...snip...
                >
                > > Anyone else having trouble reaching the rckara.org site this
                > > afternoon? I haven't been able to get on since about 1pm CDT
                > > - it worked earlier in the day.
                > >
                > > 73 de Mark N9XTN
                >
                >
                >
                > Yahoo! Groups Links
                >
                >
                >
                >

                --
                Mike Manes manes@... Tel: 303-979-4899
                "Things should be made as simple as possible, but not more so." A.
                Einstein
              • Zack Clobes
                The airspace around Wichita is actually class C (Class A is everywhere from FL180 to FL600). And, as I recall, the area around McConnell is simply an alert
                Message 7 of 7 , Jun 30, 2004
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                  The airspace around Wichita is actually class C (Class A is everywhere
                  from FL180 to FL600). And, as I recall, the area around McConnell is
                  simply an alert area because of the heavies going in an out of there.
                  There are no gunnery ranges or restricted areas - in fact that side of
                  town is quite rich in GA traffic coming off of Jabarra and ?Beech? Field.

                  As for avoiding populations, that's a nice thought but impossible. If a
                  payload is destined to cause damage, it's going to cause as much damage
                  to a farm house as it is in downtown Wichita.

                  I'm not advocating projecting a flight to land in downtown Wichita, all
                  I'm saying is that this is a business of calculated risks. We run the
                  risk of causing thousands of dollars in damages and even death the
                  INSTANT we let go of the capsule. Besides, I'm not convinced that our
                  predictions are good enough to be that picky. At best, PT has had +/- 2
                  miles, which is more than enough to be inside or outside of 95% of the
                  towns in Kansas.

                  Zack

                  Mike Manes wrote:

                  >Hi Mark,
                  >
                  >Have you marked out the Class A airspace around Wichita airport and
                  >the McConnell AFB A-683 resticted area as "no fly zones" for GPSL?
                  >
                  >73 de Mike W5VSI
                  >
                  >n9xtn@... wrote:
                  >
                  >
                  >> At the moment, Sunflower should be OK as the forecast tracks will be to the south or southeast but not as far as Wichita. It's possible, though, that we'd have to use McPherson if the upper winds get a little stronger.
                  >>
                  >>
                  >
                  >
                  >
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