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Re: [FlashLite] Where are we with flash on mobile devices right now?

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  • Paul Andrews
    ... It looks good, though Apple has a huge advantage right now. I think there has to be a a big shakeout of mobile manufacturers and I think the lack of a
    Message 1 of 16 , Apr 22 12:24 AM
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      On 22/04/2010 00:41, Jens Wommer wrote:
      > :D - Please give him one kick of me as well!
      >
      > By the way - forget the iPad - get a wePad! Don't support an evil company! - it runs even with Flash and has got even more CPU and USB connection!!!
      >
      > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBq66fEVYzo&NR=1
      >
      > Jobs is lazy - we go wePad!
      >
      > Jens
      >
      >
      It looks good, though Apple has a huge advantage right now. I think
      there has to be a a big shakeout of mobile manufacturers and I think the
      lack of a common SDK for app development across manufacturers makes
      android perhaps the only main contender. Technology isn't really the
      main thing though - marketing and app availability give Apple a huge
      advantage right now.

      There may be a better device than the iPad coming up, but there's also a
      better iPad than the iPad in the works too, I'm sure.
    • Stefan Wessels
      Hi Paul I think the Flash platform has definitely become much less attractive with the release of the iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a
      Message 2 of 16 , Apr 22 2:55 AM
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        Hi Paul


        I think the Flash platform has definitely become much less attractive with the release of the iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a new standard that has let most other mobile SDK's look dated and irrelevant. Not only Flash, but Symbian,C++, Java, all the other “traditional” languages have taken a hit (Palm's 1million developer challenge has had to extend their deadline for lack of entries), Java development teams are shutting down all over the place and with Apple still owning 99% of the mobile applications market, in some ways these companies will never ever catch up (e.g. if you have a legacy of 5 years and 200 devices across one OS - come on impossible to erase all your previous mistakes + your traditional deals with operators binds you to older, less consumer-friendly business models). This means that if you are starting out today, you will be hard pressed to find a better first platform than iPhone.

        I think one positive though for contenders in all of this, is that iPhone apps have created an expectation from the market. Before the iPhone the general public couldn't even imagine what the experience of a cool mobile app is like and why they would want it, Apple has created a need, and this need filters down to all markets. We can already see that our players in third world countries with basic Flash Lite phones want to have more "iPhone-like" experiences.

        For us that are currently actively involved & survived developing Flash Lite, (we mourn every day for all the many talented and passionate Flash Liters that had to change their business plan/leave Flash Lite market),  it's actually a pretty good time now. The boom of real money making / stable mobile applications stores (Appstore 100%) has meant that things like mobile advertising and services on monetizing mobile content is much more evolved based on the money that has iPhone has brought into the market (AdMob Flash Lite SDK finally released). There is actually much more of a business case for Flash Lite today than ever before, even though most of the new brightest minds in mobile are now firmly in Apple/Android land, and when looking back at the fragmented/screw the developer minefield that is the Nokia/Adobe Flash Lite strategy, I don't think they will go down far down that road before deciding to get someone else to do it or abandon it all together.

        We as Flash Lite developers have gotten used to basically having to fend for ourselves/fear the worst, and when we have our daily "normal" struggles with Flash Lite player version bugs, many device incompatibilities, explaining to technology providers how their technology actually works in real life, device/sdk/firmware/packaging glitches (get this Nokia doesn't even know how to package for some of their own phones), complete lack of support, I smile because I know that very few serious developers that have worked with the either the Android or iPhone SDK will ever put up/accept the current level of complexity for developing/getting Flash content out on devices. For us that still know the dark arts of FL 1.1 and 2.x we are turning away clients every day - 50% of the time they should actually be doing an iPhone app. All our talented AS3 buddies ARE indeed learning Objective C, because they all love their Macbooks/OSX, they feel like they are doing something cool and creative again and programatically they feel it's generally going in a better direction than say learning Symbian (insert your latest other mobile OS here) or AS1/2. So there is this intellectual vacuum and huge market at the same time. Having to depend on Nokia or Adobe, or Android to make it happen is a pretty shaky combination, and not the best business case for someone who wants to make money today.

        We are pretty happy though to focus our Flash Lite skills strategically for the next 3-4 years, in some ways this is the first time we can really start pushing Flash Lite to the max, thanks to Apple, but as the dream that Adobe sold us years ago, that might never happen, and that is OK too.


        Stefan
        Stefan Wessels
        Co-Founder
        stefan@...
        +65 9002 0964
      • Fernando
        Hi Paul and others, Yes, I think there will be space for Flash in Mobile. I have been working in the mobile industry since 2005 and working on Flash Lite since
        Message 3 of 16 , Apr 22 7:46 AM
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          Hi Paul and others,

          Yes, I think there will be space for Flash in Mobile.

          I have been working in the mobile industry since 2005 and working on Flash Lite since maybe 2007.
          Before iPhone 3G (with app store) we tried to enter the market, offering our services to create custom made applications for our clients. Most of the clients turn down, as a matter of perception of the importance of mobile for their business. With the hysteria of iPhone apps all that change creating the "need" of custom made mobile services. So iPhone helped our business :). As we do custom made application, our clients starts to ask to do iPhone apps also, although we use cross platforms tools to create for others OEMs(Flash , Web, widgets, etc).
          Now the iPhone market apps is very crowded, and it´s hard to compete (money off course) with starters that will lower the prices. Besides other big companies (games mostly) are in the pound and take the lion share for then. Other problem will appear is the "long tail" drama (who are in the industry known's that drama). Soon will see the money lost in the iPhone developers. Like I said we also ride this horse, but only with custom made applications (paid upfront for the project :)). Here some ideas to backup this:
          http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/03/paid-smartphone-apps-half-get-under-1000-downloads-what-does-this-mean.html

          We as a small company developing native for this fragmented market is not an option. Cross platform tools like Flash , web and widgets are our tools. The technology we use depends on the type of service we want to deliver (Flash Lite where the experience is important – iPhone alike :)). The signals are strong for the support of Flash for all OEMs except iPhone (Nokia, Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, ZTE, Android, RIM, etc.)

          Best regards,
          Fernando


          --- In FlashLite@yahoogroups.com, Paul Andrews <paul@...> wrote:
          >
          > With the advent of the iPhone, Apple has established a strong mobile
          > market on the back of the success of it's own closed product and really
          > established a strong market for applications on that platform.
          >
          > Forgetting the Flash/iWhatever controversy, I'm curious to know where
          > you guys think the mobile market is heading and to understand the
          > implications for Flash developers right now. I've always been reluctant
          > to get too involved with Flash Mobile because it seems to be a highly
          > restricted Flash version that runs on generally underpowered machines
          > and in a highly fragmented user base meaning that there hasn't been a
          > huge market for general Flash applications because the variation of
          > hardware and OS supports makes a "one size fits all" solution
          > impractical and even with a single manufacturer there hasn't been a
          > significant platform presence that allows a sophisticated application to
          > be built that could be sold or presented to a large customer base.
          >
          > I've tended to wonder at the commitment of mobile manufacturers to flash
          > - even Nokia offers SDKs to java and C++ developers on their website
          > with not even a nod to flash development.
          >
          > On the plus side, devices are getting faster, screen sizes larger and
          > Adobe are striving for Flash 10 on mobile platforms. It looks like
          > Android is the only platform that seems to have any chance of competing
          > at any level with the iphone outside of niche markets, because it offers
          > a common base across manufacturers.
          >
          > Are my perceptions of Flash on Mobile devices way out? As a Flash
          > developer what direction should I be heading in to develop for Mobile
          > platforms using Flash?
          >
          > This isn't a dig at anyone, just trying to get a handle on Flash and
          > mobile right now, and more importantly in six to twelve months time.
          >
        • Dan Milward
          Its always been difficult to monitize Flash. Sure its ok if you re a big savvy web agency making $500K + websites but for many thousands of creatives who don t
          Message 4 of 16 , Apr 22 2:53 PM
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            Its always been difficult to monitize Flash. Sure its ok if you're a big savvy web agency making $500K + websites but for many thousands of creatives who don't work for large corporates there has never been an outlet. All they have had is stupid albino black sheep where they get ripped off.

            Why did Apple succeed over night? Because they said to their users "here's a market place" now go make yourselves some money. If Adobe did this 10 years ago like many of us Flash Lite developers were begging them to do.... wow! It'd be a different world right now.

            I just don't agree with you guys about objective C. I just can't imagine most FL developers learning objective C. If anything I know more Flash Developers that hate Apple and Objective C more then ever. FL devs are more likely to continue to hunt for opportunities to monitize. I'm not going to waste my time learning objective C I'm just going to find a knowing developer and commission them. Most people will be like me (I suspect).

            Adobe could fix this for us easy. They take that god damned Open Screen fund and build the best freaking market place or packager for Android Flash Apps that the world has ever seen. Other companies like Nokia and Ericsson all need to say bye to Symbian / C etc and say hello Android. Then we're back in the game. Content is key. Who gives a flying *** what language something is written in providing it runs smoothly. I bet you both my pinkies that it isnt the end user. They don't care at all.

            If Adobe don't do this or something like this then yeah I think they are royally screwed. It seems like there are too many forces against them... heck I can make quake in HTML now so why do I need Flash?

            Maybe Flash needs to start exporting HTML 5?? Beats me... but I'm sure going to do everything in my own limited amount of power to help :))

            Best,
            Dan

            p.s. we're making FL games for the iMode market in Japan and there very much is a monitization opportunity over there... again their users don't care if games are FL or Java or written on bog paper.. so long as they are fun and have a good story :))


            On Thu, Apr 22, 2010 at 9:55 PM, Stefan Wessels <stefan@...> wrote:
             

            Hi Paul


            I think the Flash platform has definitely become much less attractive with the release of the iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a new standard that has let most other mobile SDK's look dated and irrelevant. Not only Flash, but Symbian,C++, Java, all the other “traditional” languages have taken a hit (Palm's 1million developer challenge has had to extend their deadline for lack of entries), Java development teams are shutting down all over the place and with Apple still owning 99% of the mobile applications market, in some ways these companies will never ever catch up (e.g. if you have a legacy of 5 years and 200 devices across one OS - come on impossible to erase all your previous mistakes + your traditional deals with operators binds you to older, less consumer-friendly business models). This means that if you are starting out today, you will be hard pressed to find a better first platform than iPhone.

            I think one positive though for contenders in all of this, is that iPhone apps have created an expectation from the market. Before the iPhone the general public couldn't even imagine what the experience of a cool mobile app is like and why they would want it, Apple has created a need, and this need filters down to all markets. We can already see that our players in third world countries with basic Flash Lite phones want to have more "iPhone-like" experiences.

            For us that are currently actively involved & survived developing Flash Lite, (we mourn every day for all the many talented and passionate Flash Liters that had to change their business plan/leave Flash Lite market),  it's actually a pretty good time now. The boom of real money making / stable mobile applications stores (Appstore 100%) has meant that things like mobile advertising and services on monetizing mobile content is much more evolved based on the money that has iPhone has brought into the market (AdMob Flash Lite SDK finally released). There is actually much more of a business case for Flash Lite today than ever before, even though most of the new brightest minds in mobile are now firmly in Apple/Android land, and when looking back at the fragmented/screw the developer minefield that is the Nokia/Adobe Flash Lite strategy, I don't think they will go down far down that road before deciding to get someone else to do it or abandon it all together.

            We as Flash Lite developers have gotten used to basically having to fend for ourselves/fear the worst, and when we have our daily "normal" struggles with Flash Lite player version bugs, many device incompatibilities, explaining to technology providers how their technology actually works in real life, device/sdk/firmware/packaging glitches (get this Nokia doesn't even know how to package for some of their own phones), complete lack of support, I smile because I know that very few serious developers that have worked with the either the Android or iPhone SDK will ever put up/accept the current level of complexity for developing/getting Flash content out on devices. For us that still know the dark arts of FL 1.1 and 2.x we are turning away clients every day - 50% of the time they should actually be doing an iPhone app. All our talented AS3 buddies ARE indeed learning Objective C, because they all love their Macbooks/OSX, they feel like they are doing something cool and creative again and programatically they feel it's generally going in a better direction than say learning Symbian (insert your latest other mobile OS here) or AS1/2. So there is this intellectual vacuum and huge market at the same time. Having to depend on Nokia or Adobe, or Android to make it happen is a pretty shaky combination, and not the best business case for someone who wants to make money today.

            We are pretty happy though to focus our Flash Lite skills strategically for the next 3-4 years, in some ways this is the first time we can really start pushing Flash Lite to the max, thanks to Apple, but as the dream that Adobe sold us years ago, that might never happen, and that is OK too.


            Stefan
            Stefan Wessels
            Co-Founder
            stefan@...
            +65 9002 0964




            --
            +64 21 449901
            www.instinct.co.nz  -  www.getshopped.org  -  www.gamemakers.co.nz
          • Paul Andrews
            I d just like to thank everyone that s contributed to the thread - it s been very interesting, although not quite in the way that I d have liked it to be as a
            Message 5 of 16 , Apr 22 3:17 PM
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              I'd just like to thank everyone that's contributed to the thread - it's
              been very interesting, although not quite in the way that I'd have liked
              it to be as a flash developer. I really do appreciate hearing people's
              views.

              I do think that quite a few Flash developers will learn Objective-C - it
              seems foolish to ignore an opportunity, and I guess Android is the only
              alternative big player in sight.

              Fun times for us all.
            • Jesse Warden
              I agree with you. There are a lot of open minded and smart Flash Developers who have tried Objective C and say it s not half bad. I think they are smoking
              Message 6 of 16 , Apr 22 3:20 PM
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                I agree with you.  There are a lot of open minded and smart Flash Developers who have tried Objective C and say it's not half bad.  I think they are smoking crack; I got used to the syntax after 3 days, but still hate it.  It clearly shows it's age.  I agree; most Flash Devs will start targetting Android, and so will Adobe.

                Me?  I'm willing to suffer because I love my iPhone and iPad, and believe in the apps that I want to create for it. It just sucks it'll take 4 times as long and won't be as fun now.

                Keep in mind Quake doesn't work.  They say it works, but they link to a YouTube video.  You can't actually play it; you have to compile it.  If I have to compile code, how is that HTML5 in my browser just working?



                On Thu, Apr 22, 2010 at 5:53 PM, Dan Milward <dan@...> wrote:
                 

                Its always been difficult to monitize Flash. Sure its ok if you're a big savvy web agency making $500K + websites but for many thousands of creatives who don't work for large corporates there has never been an outlet. All they have had is stupid albino black sheep where they get ripped off.

                Why did Apple succeed over night? Because they said to their users "here's a market place" now go make yourselves some money. If Adobe did this 10 years ago like many of us Flash Lite developers were begging them to do.... wow! It'd be a different world right now.

                I just don't agree with you guys about objective C. I just can't imagine most FL developers learning objective C. If anything I know more Flash Developers that hate Apple and Objective C more then ever. FL devs are more likely to continue to hunt for opportunities to monitize. I'm not going to waste my time learning objective C I'm just going to find a knowing developer and commission them. Most people will be like me (I suspect).

                Adobe could fix this for us easy. They take that god damned Open Screen fund and build the best freaking market place or packager for Android Flash Apps that the world has ever seen. Other companies like Nokia and Ericsson all need to say bye to Symbian / C etc and say hello Android. Then we're back in the game. Content is key. Who gives a flying *** what language something is written in providing it runs smoothly. I bet you both my pinkies that it isnt the end user. They don't care at all.

                If Adobe don't do this or something like this then yeah I think they are royally screwed. It seems like there are too many forces against them... heck I can make quake in HTML now so why do I need Flash?

                Maybe Flash needs to start exporting HTML 5?? Beats me... but I'm sure going to do everything in my own limited amount of power to help :))

                Best,
                Dan

                p.s. we're making FL games for the iMode market in Japan and there very much is a monitization opportunity over there... again their users don't care if games are FL or Java or written on bog paper.. so long as they are fun and have a good story :))


                On Thu, Apr 22, 2010 at 9:55 PM, Stefan Wessels <stefan@...> wrote:
                 

                Hi Paul


                I think the Flash platform has definitely become much less attractive with the release of the iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a new standard that has let most other mobile SDK's look dated and irrelevant. Not only Flash, but Symbian,C++, Java, all the other “traditional” languages have taken a hit (Palm's 1million developer challenge has had to extend their deadline for lack of entries), Java development teams are shutting down all over the place and with Apple still owning 99% of the mobile applications market, in some ways these companies will never ever catch up (e.g. if you have a legacy of 5 years and 200 devices across one OS - come on impossible to erase all your previous mistakes + your traditional deals with operators binds you to older, less consumer-friendly business models). This means that if you are starting out today, you will be hard pressed to find a better first platform than iPhone.

                I think one positive though for contenders in all of this, is that iPhone apps have created an expectation from the market. Before the iPhone the general public couldn't even imagine what the experience of a cool mobile app is like and why they would want it, Apple has created a need, and this need filters down to all markets. We can already see that our players in third world countries with basic Flash Lite phones want to have more "iPhone-like" experiences.

                For us that are currently actively involved & survived developing Flash Lite, (we mourn every day for all the many talented and passionate Flash Liters that had to change their business plan/leave Flash Lite market),  it's actually a pretty good time now. The boom of real money making / stable mobile applications stores (Appstore 100%) has meant that things like mobile advertising and services on monetizing mobile content is much more evolved based on the money that has iPhone has brought into the market (AdMob Flash Lite SDK finally released). There is actually much more of a business case for Flash Lite today than ever before, even though most of the new brightest minds in mobile are now firmly in Apple/Android land, and when looking back at the fragmented/screw the developer minefield that is the Nokia/Adobe Flash Lite strategy, I don't think they will go down far down that road before deciding to get someone else to do it or abandon it all together.

                We as Flash Lite developers have gotten used to basically having to fend for ourselves/fear the worst, and when we have our daily "normal" struggles with Flash Lite player version bugs, many device incompatibilities, explaining to technology providers how their technology actually works in real life, device/sdk/firmware/packaging glitches (get this Nokia doesn't even know how to package for some of their own phones), complete lack of support, I smile because I know that very few serious developers that have worked with the either the Android or iPhone SDK will ever put up/accept the current level of complexity for developing/getting Flash content out on devices. For us that still know the dark arts of FL 1.1 and 2.x we are turning away clients every day - 50% of the time they should actually be doing an iPhone app. All our talented AS3 buddies ARE indeed learning Objective C, because they all love their Macbooks/OSX, they feel like they are doing something cool and creative again and programatically they feel it's generally going in a better direction than say learning Symbian (insert your latest other mobile OS here) or AS1/2. So there is this intellectual vacuum and huge market at the same time. Having to depend on Nokia or Adobe, or Android to make it happen is a pretty shaky combination, and not the best business case for someone who wants to make money today.

                We are pretty happy though to focus our Flash Lite skills strategically for the next 3-4 years, in some ways this is the first time we can really start pushing Flash Lite to the max, thanks to Apple, but as the dream that Adobe sold us years ago, that might never happen, and that is OK too.


                Stefan
                Stefan Wessels
                Co-Founder
                stefan@...
                +65 9002 0964




                --
                +64 21 449901
                www.instinct.co.nz  -  www.getshopped.org  -  www.gamemakers.co.nz


              • Dale Rankine
                Well said Stefan, and I think it s great that you guys have carved out a business model that works for you and the platform. It s a testament to your creative
                Message 7 of 16 , Apr 22 3:33 PM
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                  Well said Stefan, and I think it's great that you guys have carved out
                  a business model that works for you and the platform. It's a testament
                  to your creative talent as well as business tenacity. You guys are
                  rock stars to me :)

                  Unfortunately for most, Flash won't offer the "mass monetization"
                  goals and expectations they have for their mobile apps now, thanks to
                  the customer experience success of Apple. Because after all, take all
                  the techy stuff out and it's a question of who can create the best
                  customer experience. Adobe and Nokia haven't been able to nail it.
                  Android hasn't had a great start either. Apple nailed it. Look where
                  the developers went (even though when they get there, many don't like
                  the rules of the game Apple make you play, and find that the pot of
                  gold still eludes them).

                  Get the customer experience right, then developers have an audience
                  wanting product. Supply and demand.

                  Dale.





                  On Thursday, April 22, 2010, Stefan Wessels <stefan@...> wrote:
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                  > Hi Paul
                  >
                  > I think the Flash platform has
                  > definitely become much less attractive with the release of the
                  > iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a new standard
                  > that has let most other mobile SDK's look dated and irrelevant. Not
                  > only Flash, but Symbian,C++, Java, all the other “traditional”
                  > languages have taken a hit (Palm's 1million developer challenge has
                  > had to extend their deadline for lack of entries), Java development
                  > teams are shutting down all over the place and with Apple still
                  > owning 99% of the mobile applications market, in some ways these
                  > companies will never ever catch up (e.g. if you have a legacy of 5
                  > years and 200 devices across one OS - come on impossible to erase all
                  > your previous mistakes + your traditional deals with operators binds
                  > you to older, less consumer-friendly business models). This means
                  > that if you are starting out today, you will be hard pressed to find
                  > a better first platform than iPhone.
                  >
                  > I think one positive
                  > though for contenders in all of this, is that iPhone apps have
                  > created an expectation from the market. Before the iPhone the general
                  > public couldn't even imagine what the experience of a cool mobile app
                  > is like and why they would want it, Apple has created a need, and
                  > this need filters down to all markets. We can already see that our
                  > players in third world countries with basic Flash Lite phones want to
                  > have more "iPhone-like" experiences.
                  >
                  > For us that are
                  > currently actively involved & survived developing Flash Lite, (we
                  > mourn every day for all the many talented and passionate Flash Liters
                  > that had to change their business plan/leave Flash Lite market),
                  > it's actually a pretty good time now. The boom of real money making /
                  > stable mobile applications stores (Appstore 100%) has meant that
                  > things like mobile advertising and services on monetizing mobile
                  > content is much more evolved based on the money that has iPhone has
                  > brought into the market (AdMob Flash Lite SDK finally released).
                  > There is actually much more of a business case for Flash Lite today
                  > than ever before, even though most of the new brightest minds in
                  > mobile are now firmly in Apple/Android land, and when looking back at
                  > the fragmented/screw the developer minefield that is the Nokia/Adobe
                  > Flash Lite strategy, I don't think they will go down far down that
                  > road before deciding to get someone else to do it or abandon it all
                  > together.
                  >
                  > We as Flash Lite developers have gotten used to
                  > basically having to fend for ourselves/fear the worst, and when we
                  > have our daily "normal" struggles with Flash Lite player
                  > version bugs, many device incompatibilities, explaining to technology
                  > providers how their technology actually works in real life,
                  > device/sdk/firmware/packaging glitches (get this Nokia doesn't even
                  > know how to package for some of their own phones), complete lack of
                  > support, I smile because I know that very few serious developers that
                  > have worked with the either the Android or iPhone SDK will ever put
                  > up/accept the current level of complexity for developing/getting
                  > Flash content out on devices. For us that still know the dark arts of
                  > FL 1.1 and 2.x we are turning away clients every day - 50% of the
                  > time they should actually be doing an iPhone app. All our talented
                  > AS3 buddies ARE indeed learning Objective C, because they all love
                  > their Macbooks/OSX, they feel like they are doing something cool and
                  > creative again and programatically they feel it's generally going in
                  > a better direction than say learning Symbian (insert your latest
                  > other mobile OS here) or AS1/2. So there is this intellectual vacuum
                  > and huge market at the same time. Having to depend on Nokia or Adobe,
                  > or Android to make it happen is a pretty shaky combination, and not
                  > the best business case for someone who wants to make money today.
                  >
                  > We
                  > are pretty happy though to focus our Flash Lite skills strategically
                  > for the next 3-4 years, in some ways this is the first time we can
                  > really start pushing Flash Lite to the max, thanks to Apple, but as
                  > the dream that Adobe sold us years ago, that might never happen, and
                  > that is OK too.
                  >
                  > Stefan
                  > Stefan Wessels
                  > Co-Founder
                  > stefan@... <stefan@...?subject\x3dHi%20Stefan>
                  > +65 9002 0964
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
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                • Dan Milward
                  Nicely put Dale. So again though it comes back to Adobe providing their developers not just the tools to make quality content, but an outlet to sell their
                  Message 8 of 16 , Apr 22 3:51 PM
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                    Nicely put Dale.

                    So again though it comes back to Adobe providing their developers not just the tools to make quality content, but an outlet to sell their content.

                    So. Scrap the Open Screen fund and get the market ready for us. Adobe need to collaborate with Google before they too go evil.. shame on your Steve "bill" Jobs!!!

                    Ciao,
                    Dan 

                    On Fri, Apr 23, 2010 at 10:33 AM, Dale Rankine <dale@...> wrote:
                    Well said Stefan, and I think it's great that you guys have carved out
                    a business model that works for you and the platform. It's a testament
                    to your creative talent as well as business tenacity. You guys are
                    rock stars to me :)

                    Unfortunately for most, Flash won't offer the "mass monetization"
                    goals and expectations they have for their mobile apps now, thanks to
                    the customer experience success of Apple. Because after all, take all
                    the techy stuff out and it's a question of who can create the best
                    customer experience. Adobe and Nokia haven't been able to nail it.
                    Android hasn't had a great start either. Apple nailed it. Look where
                    the developers went (even though when they get there, many don't like
                    the rules of the game Apple make you play, and find that the pot of
                    gold still eludes them).

                    Get the customer experience right, then developers have an audience
                    wanting product. Supply and demand.

                    Dale.





                    On Thursday, April 22, 2010, Stefan Wessels <stefan@...> wrote:
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                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    > Hi Paul
                    >
                    > I think the Flash platform has
                    > definitely become much less attractive with the release of the
                    > iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a new standard
                    > that has let most other mobile SDK's look dated and irrelevant. Not
                    > only Flash, but Symbian,C++, Java, all the other “traditional”
                    > languages have taken a hit (Palm's 1million developer challenge has
                    > had to extend their deadline for lack of entries), Java development
                    > teams are shutting down all over the place and with Apple still
                    > owning 99% of the mobile applications market, in some ways these
                    > companies will never ever catch up (e.g. if you have a legacy of 5
                    > years and 200 devices across one OS - come on impossible to erase all
                    > your previous mistakes + your traditional deals with operators binds
                    > you to older, less consumer-friendly business models). This means
                    > that if you are starting out today, you will be hard pressed to find
                    > a better first platform than iPhone.
                    >
                    > I think one positive
                    > though for contenders in all of this, is that iPhone apps have
                    > created an expectation from the market. Before the iPhone the general
                    > public couldn't even imagine what the experience of a cool mobile app
                    > is like and why they would want it, Apple has created a need, and
                    > this need filters down to all markets. We can already see that our
                    > players in third world countries with basic Flash Lite phones want to
                    > have more "iPhone-like" experiences.
                    >
                    > For us that are
                    > currently actively involved & survived developing Flash Lite, (we
                    > mourn every day for all the many talented and passionate Flash Liters
                    > that had to change their business plan/leave Flash Lite market),
                    > it's actually a pretty good time now. The boom of real money making /
                    > stable mobile applications stores (Appstore 100%) has meant that
                    > things like mobile advertising and services on monetizing mobile
                    > content is much more evolved based on the money that has iPhone has
                    > brought into the market (AdMob Flash Lite SDK finally released).
                    > There is actually much more of a business case for Flash Lite today
                    > than ever before, even though most of the new brightest minds in
                    > mobile are now firmly in Apple/Android land, and when looking back at
                    > the fragmented/screw the developer minefield that is the Nokia/Adobe
                    > Flash Lite strategy, I don't think they will go down far down that
                    > road before deciding to get someone else to do it or abandon it all
                    > together.
                    >
                    > We as Flash Lite developers have gotten used to
                    > basically having to fend for ourselves/fear the worst, and when we
                    > have our daily "normal" struggles with Flash Lite player
                    > version bugs, many device incompatibilities, explaining to technology
                    > providers how their technology actually works in real life,
                    > device/sdk/firmware/packaging glitches (get this Nokia doesn't even
                    > know how to package for some of their own phones), complete lack of
                    > support, I smile because I know that very few serious developers that
                    > have worked with the either the Android or iPhone SDK will ever put
                    > up/accept the current level of complexity for developing/getting
                    > Flash content out on devices. For us that still know the dark arts of
                    > FL 1.1 and 2.x we are turning away clients every day - 50% of the
                    > time they should actually be doing an iPhone app. All our talented
                    > AS3 buddies ARE indeed learning Objective C, because they all love
                    > their Macbooks/OSX, they feel like they are doing something cool and
                    > creative again and programatically they feel it's generally going in
                    > a better direction than say learning Symbian (insert your latest
                    > other mobile OS here) or AS1/2. So there is this intellectual vacuum
                    > and huge market at the same time. Having to depend on Nokia or Adobe,
                    > or Android to make it happen is a pretty shaky combination, and not
                    > the best business case for someone who wants to make money today.
                    >
                    > We
                    > are pretty happy though to focus our Flash Lite skills strategically
                    > for the next 3-4 years, in some ways this is the first time we can
                    > really start pushing Flash Lite to the max, thanks to Apple, but as
                    > the dream that Adobe sold us years ago, that might never happen, and
                    > that is OK too.
                    >
                    > Stefan
                    >  Stefan Wessels
                    > Co-Founder
                    > stefan@... <stefan@...?subject\x3dHi%20Stefan>
                    > +65 9002 0964
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    >


                    ------------------------------------

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                    --
                    +64 21 449901
                    www.instinct.co.nz  -  www.getshopped.org  -  www.gamemakers.co.nz
                  • Dale Rankine
                    I used to think the same way Dan, about Adobe needing to be involved in the development of the ecosystem rather than just the tools. But in the current mobile
                    Message 9 of 16 , Apr 22 4:13 PM
                    View Source
                    • 0 Attachment
                      I used to think the same way Dan, about Adobe needing to be involved in the development of the ecosystem rather than just the tools. But in the current mobile landscape, where the OEMS are having less of an impact than the platform owners (and I mean the BASE platform, not runtimes that sit on top) on what developers do, I don't know if Adobe has any chance of doing any more in helping create an ecosystem than they have before. They're too reliant on a Google or Apple to make it happen, unlike what they have achieved in the browser or the desktop.

                      Flash on mobile has always been a case of not delivering on expectations they have built up, and I fear that there's no real answer to the problem. God knows we've tried.

                      Dale.





                      On Fri, Apr 23, 2010 at 8:51 AM, Dan Milward <dan@...> wrote:
                       

                      Nicely put Dale.

                      So again though it comes back to Adobe providing their developers not just the tools to make quality content, but an outlet to sell their content.

                      So. Scrap the Open Screen fund and get the market ready for us. Adobe need to collaborate with Google before they too go evil.. shame on your Steve "bill" Jobs!!!


                      Ciao,
                      Dan 

                      On Fri, Apr 23, 2010 at 10:33 AM, Dale Rankine <dale@...> wrote:
                      Well said Stefan, and I think it's great that you guys have carved out
                      a business model that works for you and the platform. It's a testament
                      to your creative talent as well as business tenacity. You guys are
                      rock stars to me :)

                      Unfortunately for most, Flash won't offer the "mass monetization"
                      goals and expectations they have for their mobile apps now, thanks to
                      the customer experience success of Apple. Because after all, take all
                      the techy stuff out and it's a question of who can create the best
                      customer experience. Adobe and Nokia haven't been able to nail it.
                      Android hasn't had a great start either. Apple nailed it. Look where
                      the developers went (even though when they get there, many don't like
                      the rules of the game Apple make you play, and find that the pot of
                      gold still eludes them).

                      Get the customer experience right, then developers have an audience
                      wanting product. Supply and demand.

                      Dale.





                      On Thursday, April 22, 2010, Stefan Wessels <stefan@...> wrote:
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      > Hi Paul
                      >
                      > I think the Flash platform has
                      > definitely become much less attractive with the release of the
                      > iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a new standard
                      > that has let most other mobile SDK's look dated and irrelevant. Not
                      > only Flash, but Symbian,C++, Java, all the other “traditional”
                      > languages have taken a hit (Palm's 1million developer challenge has
                      > had to extend their deadline for lack of entries), Java development
                      > teams are shutting down all over the place and with Apple still
                      > owning 99% of the mobile applications market, in some ways these
                      > companies will never ever catch up (e.g. if you have a legacy of 5
                      > years and 200 devices across one OS - come on impossible to erase all
                      > your previous mistakes + your traditional deals with operators binds
                      > you to older, less consumer-friendly business models). This means
                      > that if you are starting out today, you will be hard pressed to find
                      > a better first platform than iPhone.
                      >
                      > I think one positive
                      > though for contenders in all of this, is that iPhone apps have
                      > created an expectation from the market. Before the iPhone the general
                      > public couldn't even imagine what the experience of a cool mobile app
                      > is like and why they would want it, Apple has created a need, and
                      > this need filters down to all markets. We can already see that our
                      > players in third world countries with basic Flash Lite phones want to
                      > have more "iPhone-like" experiences.
                      >
                      > For us that are
                      > currently actively involved & survived developing Flash Lite, (we
                      > mourn every day for all the many talented and passionate Flash Liters
                      > that had to change their business plan/leave Flash Lite market),
                      > it's actually a pretty good time now. The boom of real money making /
                      > stable mobile applications stores (Appstore 100%) has meant that
                      > things like mobile advertising and services on monetizing mobile
                      > content is much more evolved based on the money that has iPhone has
                      > brought into the market (AdMob Flash Lite SDK finally released).
                      > There is actually much more of a business case for Flash Lite today
                      > than ever before, even though most of the new brightest minds in
                      > mobile are now firmly in Apple/Android land, and when looking back at
                      > the fragmented/screw the developer minefield that is the Nokia/Adobe
                      > Flash Lite strategy, I don't think they will go down far down that
                      > road before deciding to get someone else to do it or abandon it all
                      > together.
                      >
                      > We as Flash Lite developers have gotten used to
                      > basically having to fend for ourselves/fear the worst, and when we
                      > have our daily "normal" struggles with Flash Lite player
                      > version bugs, many device incompatibilities, explaining to technology
                      > providers how their technology actually works in real life,
                      > device/sdk/firmware/packaging glitches (get this Nokia doesn't even
                      > know how to package for some of their own phones), complete lack of
                      > support, I smile because I know that very few serious developers that
                      > have worked with the either the Android or iPhone SDK will ever put
                      > up/accept the current level of complexity for developing/getting
                      > Flash content out on devices. For us that still know the dark arts of
                      > FL 1.1 and 2.x we are turning away clients every day - 50% of the
                      > time they should actually be doing an iPhone app. All our talented
                      > AS3 buddies ARE indeed learning Objective C, because they all love
                      > their Macbooks/OSX, they feel like they are doing something cool and
                      > creative again and programatically they feel it's generally going in
                      > a better direction than say learning Symbian (insert your latest
                      > other mobile OS here) or AS1/2. So there is this intellectual vacuum
                      > and huge market at the same time. Having to depend on Nokia or Adobe,
                      > or Android to make it happen is a pretty shaky combination, and not
                      > the best business case for someone who wants to make money today.
                      >
                      > We
                      > are pretty happy though to focus our Flash Lite skills strategically
                      > for the next 3-4 years, in some ways this is the first time we can
                      > really start pushing Flash Lite to the max, thanks to Apple, but as
                      > the dream that Adobe sold us years ago, that might never happen, and
                      > that is OK too.
                      >
                      > Stefan
                      >  Stefan Wessels
                      > Co-Founder
                      > stefan@... <stefan@...?subject\x3dHi%20Stefan>
                      > +65 9002 0964
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >


                      ------------------------------------

                      Yahoo! Groups Links

                      <*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
                      <*> Your email settings:
                         Individual Email | Traditional

                      <*> To change settings online go to:
                         http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FlashLite/join
                         (Yahoo! ID required)

                      <*> To change settings via email:
                         FlashLite-digest@yahoogroups.com
                         FlashLite-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com

                      <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
                         FlashLite-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

                      <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:



                    • Joe Bowbeer
                      ... I agree that Android is a contender. In terms of market share, Android is the fastest growing smartphone platform, and -- unlike iPhone -- Androids are
                      Message 10 of 16 , Apr 22 7:31 PM
                      View Source
                      • 0 Attachment
                        On Thu, Apr 22, 2010 at 12:24 AM, Paul Andrews <paul@...> wrote:
                        ... I think the
                        lack of a common SDK for app development across manufacturers makes
                        android perhaps the only main contender. Technology isn't really the
                        main thing though - marketing and app availability give Apple a huge
                        advantage right now.


                        I agree that Android is a contender.

                        In terms of market share, Android is the fastest growing smartphone platform, and -- unlike iPhone -- Androids are available from all major US carriers (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Sprint).

                        In terms of developer interest, Android is a close second to iPhone, maybe first.

                        By the end of this year, there will be 100 different models of Android available.

                        In terms of total sales, however, Android is still only #4 in the US -- behind RIM, Apple, and Microsoft -- and even further down worldwide, where Nokia is the market leader.

                        I wonder what impact full Flash (Flash 10.1, not FlashLite) will have on Android:

                        http://mashable.com/2010/02/15/adobe-flash-air-android/
                        http://blogs.adobe.com/flashplatform/2010/04/flash_applications_across_mult.html

                        Joe


                        (*) Lists of Android handsets:

                        http://www.googleandblog.com/over-100-different-android-phones/31530/
                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Android_devices

                        (**) Mobile stats:

                        http://metrics.admob.com/


                      • Peter Moelker
                        I believe the future of Flash on Mobile lies on the mobile web, not in app. stores. It s expected that there will be more mobile than normal web connections.
                        Message 11 of 16 , Apr 23 4:27 AM
                        View Source
                        • 0 Attachment
                          I believe the future of Flash on Mobile lies on the mobile web, not in app. stores. It's expected that there will be more mobile than "normal" web connections. Flash, with it's cross-platform possibilities, has the potential to greatly enhance a mobile website with video, games, applications, interactivity, etc.

                          Currently we are receiving great responses to our products and are talking with quite some big international brands. But... monetizing will still be a big challenge as most of this will be free content (for the end-user).

                          --- In FlashLite@yahoogroups.com, Dale Rankine <dale@...> wrote:
                          >
                          > I used to think the same way Dan, about Adobe needing to be involved in the
                          > development of the ecosystem rather than just the tools. But in the current
                          > mobile landscape, where the OEMS are having less of an impact than the
                          > platform owners (and I mean the BASE platform, not runtimes that sit on top)
                          > on what developers do, I don't know if Adobe has any chance of doing any
                          > more in helping create an ecosystem than they have before. They're too
                          > reliant on a Google or Apple to make it happen, unlike what they have
                          > achieved in the browser or the desktop.
                          >
                          > Flash on mobile has always been a case of not delivering on expectations
                          > they have built up, and I fear that there's no real answer to the problem.
                          > God knows we've tried.
                          >
                          > Dale.
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          >
                          > On Fri, Apr 23, 2010 at 8:51 AM, Dan Milward <dan@...> wrote:
                          >
                          > >
                          > >
                          > > Nicely put Dale.
                          > >
                          > > So again though it comes back to Adobe providing their developers not just
                          > > the tools to make quality content, but an outlet to sell their content.
                          > >
                          > > So. Scrap the Open Screen fund and get the market ready for us. Adobe need
                          > > to collaborate with Google before they too go evil.. shame on your Steve
                          > > "bill" Jobs!!!
                          > >
                          > > Ciao,
                          > > Dan
                          > >
                          > > On Fri, Apr 23, 2010 at 10:33 AM, Dale Rankine <dale@...> wrote:
                          > >
                          > >> Well said Stefan, and I think it's great that you guys have carved out
                          > >> a business model that works for you and the platform. It's a testament
                          > >> to your creative talent as well as business tenacity. You guys are
                          > >> rock stars to me :)
                          > >>
                          > >> Unfortunately for most, Flash won't offer the "mass monetization"
                          > >> goals and expectations they have for their mobile apps now, thanks to
                          > >> the customer experience success of Apple. Because after all, take all
                          > >> the techy stuff out and it's a question of who can create the best
                          > >> customer experience. Adobe and Nokia haven't been able to nail it.
                          > >> Android hasn't had a great start either. Apple nailed it. Look where
                          > >> the developers went (even though when they get there, many don't like
                          > >> the rules of the game Apple make you play, and find that the pot of
                          > >> gold still eludes them).
                          > >>
                          > >> Get the customer experience right, then developers have an audience
                          > >> wanting product. Supply and demand.
                          > >>
                          > >> Dale.
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >> On Thursday, April 22, 2010, Stefan Wessels <stefan@...>
                          > >> wrote:
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> > Hi Paul
                          > >> >
                          > >> > I think the Flash platform has
                          > >> > definitely become much less attractive with the release of the
                          > >> > iPhone/SDK and recent moves by Adobe/Nokia. It has set a new standard
                          > >> > that has let most other mobile SDK's look dated and irrelevant. Not
                          > >> > only Flash, but Symbian,C++, Java, all the other "traditional"
                          > >> > languages have taken a hit (Palm's 1million developer challenge has
                          > >> > had to extend their deadline for lack of entries), Java development
                          > >> > teams are shutting down all over the place and with Apple still
                          > >> > owning 99% of the mobile applications market, in some ways these
                          > >> > companies will never ever catch up (e.g. if you have a legacy of 5
                          > >> > years and 200 devices across one OS - come on impossible to erase all
                          > >> > your previous mistakes + your traditional deals with operators binds
                          > >> > you to older, less consumer-friendly business models). This means
                          > >> > that if you are starting out today, you will be hard pressed to find
                          > >> > a better first platform than iPhone.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > I think one positive
                          > >> > though for contenders in all of this, is that iPhone apps have
                          > >> > created an expectation from the market. Before the iPhone the general
                          > >> > public couldn't even imagine what the experience of a cool mobile app
                          > >> > is like and why they would want it, Apple has created a need, and
                          > >> > this need filters down to all markets. We can already see that our
                          > >> > players in third world countries with basic Flash Lite phones want to
                          > >> > have more "iPhone-like" experiences.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > For us that are
                          > >> > currently actively involved & survived developing Flash Lite, (we
                          > >> > mourn every day for all the many talented and passionate Flash Liters
                          > >> > that had to change their business plan/leave Flash Lite market),
                          > >> > it's actually a pretty good time now. The boom of real money making /
                          > >> > stable mobile applications stores (Appstore 100%) has meant that
                          > >> > things like mobile advertising and services on monetizing mobile
                          > >> > content is much more evolved based on the money that has iPhone has
                          > >> > brought into the market (AdMob Flash Lite SDK finally released).
                          > >> > There is actually much more of a business case for Flash Lite today
                          > >> > than ever before, even though most of the new brightest minds in
                          > >> > mobile are now firmly in Apple/Android land, and when looking back at
                          > >> > the fragmented/screw the developer minefield that is the Nokia/Adobe
                          > >> > Flash Lite strategy, I don't think they will go down far down that
                          > >> > road before deciding to get someone else to do it or abandon it all
                          > >> > together.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > We as Flash Lite developers have gotten used to
                          > >> > basically having to fend for ourselves/fear the worst, and when we
                          > >> > have our daily "normal" struggles with Flash Lite player
                          > >> > version bugs, many device incompatibilities, explaining to technology
                          > >> > providers how their technology actually works in real life,
                          > >> > device/sdk/firmware/packaging glitches (get this Nokia doesn't even
                          > >> > know how to package for some of their own phones), complete lack of
                          > >> > support, I smile because I know that very few serious developers that
                          > >> > have worked with the either the Android or iPhone SDK will ever put
                          > >> > up/accept the current level of complexity for developing/getting
                          > >> > Flash content out on devices. For us that still know the dark arts of
                          > >> > FL 1.1 and 2.x we are turning away clients every day - 50% of the
                          > >> > time they should actually be doing an iPhone app. All our talented
                          > >> > AS3 buddies ARE indeed learning Objective C, because they all love
                          > >> > their Macbooks/OSX, they feel like they are doing something cool and
                          > >> > creative again and programatically they feel it's generally going in
                          > >> > a better direction than say learning Symbian (insert your latest
                          > >> > other mobile OS here) or AS1/2. So there is this intellectual vacuum
                          > >> > and huge market at the same time. Having to depend on Nokia or Adobe,
                          > >> > or Android to make it happen is a pretty shaky combination, and not
                          > >> > the best business case for someone who wants to make money today.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > We
                          > >> > are pretty happy though to focus our Flash Lite skills strategically
                          > >> > for the next 3-4 years, in some ways this is the first time we can
                          > >> > really start pushing Flash Lite to the max, thanks to Apple, but as
                          > >> > the dream that Adobe sold us years ago, that might never happen, and
                          > >> > that is OK too.
                          > >> >
                          > >> > Stefan
                          > >> > Stefan Wessels
                          > >> > Co-Founder
                          > >> > stefan@... <stefan@...?subject\x3dHi%20Stefan<http://stefan@...?subject%5Cx3dHi%20Stefan>
                          > >> >
                          > >> > +65 9002 0964
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >> >
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >> ------------------------------------
                          > >>
                          > >> Yahoo! Groups Links
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >>
                          > >
                          > >
                          > > --
                          > > +64 21 449901
                          > > www.instinct.co.nz - www.getshopped.org - www.gamemakers.co.nz
                          > >
                          > >
                          >
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