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Re: [EuchreScience] Re: Does luck really even out?

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  • Perry Romanowski
    In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK will not even out as you ve suggested. In fact, the absolute number could continue to increase even as the
    Message 1 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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      In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK will not "even out" as you've suggested.  In fact, the absolute number could continue to increase even as the observed probability approaches 50%.

      See previous example and consider this one.

      Experiment 1:  Flip a coin 10 times.  Results - Heads 6 times, tails 4 times.  Difference = 2
      Experiment 2.  Flip a coin 100 times.  Results - Heads 55 times, tails 45 times.  Difference = 10
      Experiment 3.  Flip a coin 1000 times.  Results - Heads 530 times, tails 470 times.  Difference = 60

      In each of the experiments above the actual probabilities get closer to 50% but the absolute difference keeps increasing.  In fact, if you did an infinite number of flips you could get to the point where there is an infinite amount of difference between heads and tails and still not violate the laws of probability. 

      This experiment could apply directly to euchre.  It is completely plausible that you play just as well as your opponent and yet they always win more games than you.  Some people are just luckier than others.
    • Sword_4_hire
      Agreed ... .... and as you play more and more the difference (wins vs loses) will be due more and more to skill and less and less to luck. Eventually, luck
      Message 2 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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        Agreed  ...
         
        .... and as you play more and more the difference (wins vs loses) will be due more and more to skill and less and less to luck.  Eventually, luck becomes an insignificant factor.  (Luck will never be a non-factor, but will be an insignificant factor)
         
        Sword

        Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...> wrote:
        In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK will not "even out" as you've suggested.  In fact, the absolute number could continue to increase even as the observed probability approaches 50%.

        See previous example and consider this one.

        Experiment 1:  Flip a coin 10 times.  Results - Heads 6 times, tails 4 times.  Difference = 2
        Experiment 2.  Flip a coin 100 times.  Results - Heads 55 times, tails 45 times.  Difference = 10
        Experiment 3.  Flip a coin 1000 times.  Results - Heads 530 times, tails 470 times.  Difference = 60

        In each of the experiments above the actual probabilities get closer to 50% but the absolute difference keeps increasing.  In fact, if you did an infinite number of flips you could get to the point where there is an infinite amount of difference between heads and tails and still not violate the laws of probability. 

        This experiment could apply directly to euchre.  It is completely plausible that you play just as well as your opponent and yet they always win more games than you.  Some people are just luckier than others.


        Moody friends. Drama queens. Your life? Nope! - their life, your story.
        Play Sims Stories at Yahoo! Games.

      • Kien Tran
        I still think some people aren t luckier, they just see more luck available. Kien Tran Quote me on that if you ever use it ;) ...
        Message 3 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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          I still think some people aren't luckier, they just
          see more luck available.

          Kien Tran

          Quote me on that if you ever use it ;)

          --- Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:

          > Agreed ...
          >
          > .... and as you play more and more the difference
          > (wins vs loses) will be due more and more to skill
          > and less and less to luck. Eventually, luck becomes
          > an insignificant factor. (Luck will never be a
          > non-factor, but will be an insignificant factor)
          >
          > Sword
          >
          > Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...> wrote:
          > In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK
          > will not "even out" as you've suggested. In fact,
          > the absolute number could continue to increase even
          > as the observed probability approaches 50%.
          >
          > See previous example and consider this one.
          >
          > Experiment 1: Flip a coin 10 times. Results -
          > Heads 6 times, tails 4 times. Difference = 2
          > Experiment 2. Flip a coin 100 times. Results -
          > Heads 55 times, tails 45 times. Difference = 10
          > Experiment 3. Flip a coin 1000 times. Results -
          > Heads 530 times, tails 470 times. Difference = 60
          >
          > In each of the experiments above the actual
          > probabilities get closer to 50% but the absolute
          > difference keeps increasing. In fact, if you did an
          > infinite number of flips you could get to the point
          > where there is an infinite amount of difference
          > between heads and tails and still not violate the
          > laws of probability.
          >
          > This experiment could apply directly to euchre. It
          > is completely plausible that you play just as well
          > as your opponent and yet they always win more games
          > than you. Some people are just luckier than others.
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > ---------------------------------
          > Moody friends. Drama queens. Your life? Nope! -
          > their life, your story.
          > Play Sims Stories at Yahoo! Games.




          ____________________________________________________________________________________
          Moody friends. Drama queens. Your life? Nope! - their life, your story. Play Sims Stories at Yahoo! Games.
          http://sims.yahoo.com/
        • Gerry Blue
          I just can t resist posting this: I m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it. - Thomas Jefferson Unlike Tom, I don t
          Message 4 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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            I just can't resist posting this:
             
             
            Unlike Tom, I don't believe in luck but I can be convinced otherwise if you can prove it exists.
             
            Gerry

            ----- Original Message ----
            From: Kien Tran <sithlord78@...>
            To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
            Sent: Monday, October 1, 2007 10:52:49 AM
            Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: Does luck really even out?

            I still think some people aren't luckier, they just
            see more luck available.


            Boardwalk for $500? In 2007? Ha!
            Play Monopoly Here and Now (it's updated for today's economy) at Yahoo! Games.
          • Pol
            I agree with Sword. If luck counted THAT much, then the same players wouldn t have the same high ratings (or win/loss percentage) over and over again. But
            Message 5 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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              I agree with Sword.  If luck "counted" THAT much, then the same players wouldn't have the same high ratings (or win/loss percentage) over and over again.  But the same players DO have the same high ratings (or win/loss percentage) over and over again.  Are these same players just lucky all the time, every time?  I don't think so.  That's why I think that while luck plays a part in some games, in the end, it all evens out, and STRATEGY is the ultimate deciding factor on whether or not you're a successful euchre player.

              Polish_Pride_USA
              Yahoo ADV1



              --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:
              >
              > Agreed ...
              >
              > .... and as you play more and more the difference (wins vs loses) will be due more and more to skill and less and less to luck. Eventually, luck becomes an insignificant factor. (Luck will never be a non-factor, but will be an insignificant factor)
              >
              > Sword
              >
              > Perry Romanowski thejoggler@... wrote:
              > In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK will not "even out" as you've suggested. In fact, the absolute number could continue to increase even as the observed probability approaches 50%.
              >
              > See previous example and consider this one.
              >
              > Experiment 1: Flip a coin 10 times. Results - Heads 6 times, tails 4 times. Difference = 2
              > Experiment 2. Flip a coin 100 times. Results - Heads 55 times, tails 45 times. Difference = 10
              > Experiment 3. Flip a coin 1000 times. Results - Heads 530 times, tails 470 times. Difference = 60
              >
              > In each of the experiments above the actual probabilities get closer to 50% but the absolute difference keeps increasing. In fact, if you did an infinite number of flips you could get to the point where there is an infinite amount of difference between heads and tails and still not violate the laws of probability.
              >
              > This experiment could apply directly to euchre. It is completely plausible that you play just as well as your opponent and yet they always win more games than you. Some people are just luckier than others.
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >
              > ---------------------------------
              > Moody friends. Drama queens. Your life? Nope! - their life, your story.
              > Play Sims Stories at Yahoo! Games.
              >
            • bananastew
              In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK will not even out as you ve suggested. In fact, the absolute number could continue to increase even as the
              Message 6 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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                In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK will not "even out" as you've suggested.  In fact, the absolute number could continue to increase even as the observed probability approaches 50%.

                See previous example and consider this one.

                Experiment 1:  Flip a coin 10 times.  Results - Heads 6 times, tails 4 times.  Difference = 2
                Experiment 2.  Flip a coin 100 times.  Results - Heads 55 times, tails 45 times.  Difference = 10
                Experiment 3.  Flip a coin 1000 times.  Results - Heads 530 times, tails 470 times.  Difference = 60

                In each of the experiments above the actual probabilities get closer to 50% but the absolute difference keeps increasing.  In fact, if you did an infinite number of flips you could get to the point where there is an infinite amount of difference between heads and tails and still not violate the laws of probability. 

                This experiment could apply directly to euchre.  It is completely plausible that you play just as well as your opponent and yet they always win more games than you.  Some people are just luckier than others.

                Perry


                Re your experiments results. If I assume correctly and one person is flipping the coin all 10, 100, or 1000 times and the object is for that person to score as many heads as he can, the results you show provide no proof to support your concluding statement that some people are luckier. Frankly, is it not true that all persons who perform this volume of flips face the same odds throughout a similar experiment and consequently end with the much the same result, a slight deviation from 50% and a slightly higher or lower rate each time they perform it? If 1 player performs the experiment 10 times and takes the average of his perfomances and compares them to another person's average who has done 10, there will be a virtually negligible difference. And I don't consider a negligible higher average in this instance as a read of 'luckier.' Because tomorrow that player will be negligibly lower.   

                While players may get good luck at different times, it sure seems clear to me that there is no aura surrounding some players that attract more good luck to them than to others.

                 

                 

                 

                 

                 

              • ruthenium4
                ... will be due more and more to skill and less and less to luck. Eventually, luck becomes an insignificant factor. Disagree. As shown in the previous coin
                Message 7 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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                  --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:
                  >
                  > Agreed ...
                  >
                  > .... and as you play more and more the difference (wins vs loses)
                  will be due more and more to skill and less and less to luck.
                  Eventually, luck becomes an insignificant factor.

                  Disagree. As shown in the previous coin flipping experiment, the
                  difference between wins and losses increases because of luck even
                  thought the winning percentage decreases closer and closer to 50%.

                  Think of it this way. In a person's euchre life they can play maybe
                  100,000 hands. (1 hour of euchre everyday for 45 years, assuming 6
                  games in an hour).

                  If you play the same team for the entire 100,000 and both are at equal
                  skill levels, you would not expect the distribution of wins and losses
                  to be 50,000 to 50,000. This might be the highest expected value but
                  compared to all the other values you could get it is a very low
                  percentage.

                  If after 10,000 games the distribution is 5100 to 4900 the two teams
                  are of essentially equal skill level and one is just luckier than the
                  other. If after 100,000 games the distribution is 50,500 to 49,500
                  the teams have actually gotten closer in terms of winning percentage
                  even though the absolute number of wins separating the two teams has
                  gone from 200 to 1000. The winning team is just luckier than the
                  losing team.

                  Ergo, some teams and people are just luckier than others.
                • ruthenium4
                  ... You assume incorrectly that there is an object to flipping the coins and are engaging a classic Straw Man logical fallacy. It is true that all persons
                  Message 8 of 23 , Oct 1, 2007
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                    --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew" <bookcasedust@...>
                    wrote:
                    > Re your experiments results. If I assume correctly and one person is
                    > flipping the coin all 10, 100, or 1000 times and the object is for that
                    > person to score as many heads as he can, the results you show provide no
                    > proof to support your concluding statement that some people are luckier.
                    > Frankly, is it not true that all persons who perform this volume of
                    > flips face the same odds throughout a similar experiment and
                    > consequently end with the much the same result, a slight deviation from
                    > 50% and a slightly higher or lower rate each time they perform it? If 1
                    > player performs the experiment 10 times and takes the average of his
                    > perfomances and compares them to another person's average who has done
                    > 10, there will be a virtually negligible difference. And I don't
                    > consider a negligible higher average in this instance as a read of
                    > 'luckier.' Because tomorrow that player will be negligibly lower.
                    >
                    > While players may get good luck at different times, it sure seems clear
                    > to me that there is no aura surrounding some players that attract more
                    > good luck to them than to others.
                    >

                    You assume incorrectly that there is an object to flipping the coins
                    and are engaging a classic Straw Man logical fallacy.

                    It is true that all persons engaging in such a experiment face the
                    exact same odds. It is not true however, that "if a player performs
                    the experiment 10 times and takes the average of his performances and
                    compares them to another person's average who has done 10, there will
                    be virtually negligible difference."

                    If you take 2 persons and have each of them flip coins 10 times. It
                    is highly likely that one person will flip more Heads than the other.
                    Say the "score" is 6 to 4.

                    If the same people flipped coins 1000 times and ended up with a
                    difference of 550 to 450 they've actually gotten closer to the true
                    probability. However, their difference in performance has gone from a
                    difference of 2 to a difference of 100.

                    There is no necessary driving force that will ever make one player
                    "catch up" to the other player.
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