- In the coin flipping experiment, the LUCK will not "even out" as you've suggested. In fact, the absolute number could continue to increase even as the observed probability approaches 50%.

See previous example and consider this one.

Experiment 1: Flip a coin 10 times. Results - Heads 6 times, tails 4 times. Difference = 2

Experiment 2. Flip a coin 100 times. Results - Heads 55 times, tails 45 times. Difference = 10

Experiment 3. Flip a coin 1000 times. Results - Heads 530 times, tails 470 times. Difference = 60

In each of the experiments above the actual probabilities get closer to 50% but the absolute difference keeps increasing. In fact, if you did an infinite number of flips you could get to the point where there is an infinite amount of difference between heads and tails and still not violate the laws of probability.

This experiment could apply directly to euchre. It is completely plausible that you play just as well as your opponent and yet they always win more games than you. Some people are just luckier than others. - --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew" <bookcasedust@...>

wrote:> Re your experiments results. If I assume correctly and one person is

You assume incorrectly that there is an object to flipping the coins

> flipping the coin all 10, 100, or 1000 times and the object is for that

> person to score as many heads as he can, the results you show provide no

> proof to support your concluding statement that some people are luckier.

> Frankly, is it not true that all persons who perform this volume of

> flips face the same odds throughout a similar experiment and

> consequently end with the much the same result, a slight deviation from

> 50% and a slightly higher or lower rate each time they perform it? If 1

> player performs the experiment 10 times and takes the average of his

> perfomances and compares them to another person's average who has done

> 10, there will be a virtually negligible difference. And I don't

> consider a negligible higher average in this instance as a read of

> 'luckier.' Because tomorrow that player will be negligibly lower.

>

> While players may get good luck at different times, it sure seems clear

> to me that there is no aura surrounding some players that attract more

> good luck to them than to others.

>

and are engaging a classic Straw Man logical fallacy.

It is true that all persons engaging in such a experiment face the

exact same odds. It is not true however, that "if a player performs

the experiment 10 times and takes the average of his performances and

compares them to another person's average who has done 10, there will

be virtually negligible difference."

If you take 2 persons and have each of them flip coins 10 times. It

is highly likely that one person will flip more Heads than the other.

Say the "score" is 6 to 4.

If the same people flipped coins 1000 times and ended up with a

difference of 550 to 450 they've actually gotten closer to the true

probability. However, their difference in performance has gone from a

difference of 2 to a difference of 100.

There is no necessary driving force that will ever make one player

"catch up" to the other player.