## Re: [EuchreScience] . . . when you're getting squeezed?

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• Calm down please. It s easy to get lost in the hypotheticals in this problem. Remember that the whole problem started when west made a bad play by not
Message 1 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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Calm down please. It's easy to get lost in the
hypotheticals in this problem. Remember that the
leading the 10d. Now we're on a hypothetical tangent
to try to deduce the correct response.

I love Mozilla firefox because I'm bouncing between
two windows to cut and paste these emails together.

"West - leads the Spade King ; he follows the next 2
Heart/trump leads; and on the 4th trick he throws off
the Diamond Ten.
What does that tell us?
West has no more Hearts/trump."

Agreed

"Can we agree that West has no more Spades? If he had
it cannot win a trick. KIA
So West has either a Club or another Diamond. (I would
argue that West cannot have a 9 of Diamonds as he
should discard it rather than the 10.)"

Not necessarily, but it's not a bad assumption. I
will agree. I don't like holding the 10d but if it's
all I got then I'll keep it. However, if he had a
9-10 he's screwed anyways and it wouldn't matter what
he played.

"The logical choice is the Diamond King, it gives you
the best chance to win a trick in Diamonds and it
gives your partner the best chance to ruff. "

This is where I disagree. Even though it would be an
eventual loser because of the situation, you have to
remove the 'taint' of knowledge of your opponent's
hand because that's what the player is experiencing.
From what west can see, he has a protected King and he
sees a good way to cover two suits.

Natty's view is:

The correct lead, from the new
scenario posited (see below), is
the king of spades, not the king
of diamonds. You hold back on
diamonds to guard the king, on
the chance the loner's offsuit
holding is a diamond doubleton.

of diamonds does NOT give you
"the best chance to win a trick
in diamonds." It gives you the
SECOND best chance to win a trick
in diamonds. In other words, the
WORST chance."

I would actually say he's wrong in that leading King
is 2nd best. I think a better lead would be to lead
the 10d and try to promote the King. It's a risky
play which could end up with the Opponent eating the
10d with a lowly Queen and marching all over you.
Crazy hypotheticals once again, it works here by dumb
luck.

I would say it was the best play, but that's only
because of the 'taint' of knowledge that I normally
would not have.

So going back to whether dropping the 10d is
meaningful or meaningless, I would have to retract
what I said because it is meaningful. But, it would
tell me the exact opposite of what you suggested. In
your own experience how many times, while defending a
loner, do you see a small card played right before a
big card of the same suit? It happens frequently
because it's a good bet.

Here's another reason why the 10d doesn't tell me west
has a club. He led the spade and then later dropped
the next suit 10d. Seeing this I have to assume that
my p does not know to lead next to exploit my void, or
at least is doing so for a good reason. So I'm
guessing he has a high diamond and that would tell me
I should drop my diamond.

I may just go with Hubris anyways and throw my club
because I wouldn't have had time to deduce this in the
heat of the game! LOL!

That's my analysis and I'm sticking with it.

Kieno

--- maunetcomcom@... wrote:

> You have to be joking!
> When defending the loner, you actually think that
> you're better off protecting your offsuit King
> against a possible doubleton returns greater results
> than giving your partner the chance to RUFF or your
> winning the trick outright. Give me a break.
> thumb' in the other thread?
>
> And thanks, your throw away lines
>
> If it's going to take the last trick,
>
> it's going to take the first trick."
> is one of the better examples of the "Begging the
> Question" fallacy I've seen in some time.
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: Natty Bumppo <borf@...>
> To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Friday, August 31, 2007 8:27:12 PM
> Subject: [EuchreScience] . . . when you're getting
> squeezed?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> The correct lead, from the new
>
> scenario posited (see below), is
>
> the king of spades, not the king
>
> of diamonds. You hold back on
>
> diamonds to guard the king, on
>
> the chance the loner's offsuit
>
> holding is a diamond doubleton.
>
>
>
>
> And therefore leading the king
>
> of diamonds does NOT give you
>
> "the best chance to win a trick
>
> in diamonds." It gives you the
>
> SECOND best chance to win a trick
>
> in diamonds. In other words, the
>
> WORST chance.
>
>
>
> You can posit the proscription
>
> against leading the king of
>
> diamonds formulaically, as well:
>
> Don't lead a king away from its
>
> guard, and don't lead AWAY from
>
> a king on FIRST TRICK. Loner
>
> or no.
>
>
>
>
> If it's going to take the last trick,
>
> it's going to take the first trick.
>
>
>
> maunetcomcom@ ... wrote:
>
>
>
> > . . . Let's suppose [West] has
>
> > a diamond -- for the sake of
>
> > discussion, the king.
>
> >
>
> > Now back to the opening lead. You
>
> > are West, you're on lead trying to
>
> > defend [against] the described loner
>
> > with . . . Ks, 9h, Qh, 10d, Kd. What
>
> > do you lead? The logical choice is
>
> > the diamond king. It gives you the
>
> > best chance to win a trick in diamonds
>
> > and it gives your partner the best
>
> > chance to ruff. . . .
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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• ... I always overlook something important. If the Kd was in west s hand, then it isn t in your opponent s. So scratch what I said about dumb luck. It s not
Message 2 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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>
> I would actually say he's wrong in that leading King
> is 2nd best. I think a better lead would be to lead
> the 10d and try to promote the King. It's a risky
> play which could end up with the Opponent eating the
> 10d with a lowly Queen and marching all over you.
> Crazy hypotheticals once again, it works here by
> dumb
> luck.

I always overlook something important. If the Kd was
in west's hand, then it isn't in your opponent's. So
scratch what I said about dumb luck. It's not certain
to work.

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• ... The Kd lead will win a trick that the Ks lead will not when partner ruffs with a trump lower than the Jh and maker plays the singleton Ad. It has to be
Message 3 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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> maunetcomcom@ ... wrote:

> Now back to the opening lead. You
> are West, you're on lead trying to
> defend [against] the described loner
> with . . . Ks, 9h, Qh, 10d, Kd. What
> do you lead? The logical choice is
> the diamond king. It gives you the
> best chance to win a trick in diamonds
> and it gives your partner the best
> chance to ruff. . .

The Kd lead will win a trick that the Ks lead will not when
partner ruffs with a trump lower than the Jh and maker plays
the singleton Ad. It has to be the singleton Ad because after
the Ks lead, your last two cards after maker draws trump will
be K10d and you will simply win the diamond trick later rather
than sooner. That is not a win for the Kd lead.

The Kd lead will lose a trick that the Ks lead will not when
maker has AQd or A9d and partner has to follow suit or doesn't
have any trump. Even if your 10d is a winner, you will throw
it to save the Ks. The Kd lead is better than leading the 10d,
but it risks disaster.

The decisive factor for me in choosing the lead is that having
two trumps on lead into a loner substantially reduces the
probability of partner having a trump to ruff with. Give maker
a typical 4-card trump suit for a loner, and partner will have
only a 5 out of 13 chance of having a trump. Combine that with
the required diamond void and the required singleton Ad in the
maker's hand, and you can see why I prefer the Ks lead.

Mini-quiz: There is another way that the Kd lead could win a
trick that the Ks lead would not. Who can find it?

---Tom---
• The only thing I could think of, but I only gave it a couple of min, is if your p trumped...it could promote your Q to high trump, after 2nd trick, if caller
Message 4 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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The only thing I could think of, but I only gave it a couple of min, is if your p trumped...it could promote your Q to high trump, after 2nd trick, if caller held XX10 of trump

scolar2 <scolar4@...> wrote:

Mini-quiz: There is another way that the Kd lead could win a
trick that the Ks lead would not. Who can find it?

---Tom---

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