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Re: [EuchreScience] . . . when you're getting squeezed?

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  • Kien Tran
    Calm down please. It s easy to get lost in the hypotheticals in this problem. Remember that the whole problem started when west made a bad play by not
    Message 1 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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      Calm down please. It's easy to get lost in the
      hypotheticals in this problem. Remember that the
      whole problem started when west made a bad play by not
      leading the 10d. Now we're on a hypothetical tangent
      to try to deduce the correct response.

      I love Mozilla firefox because I'm bouncing between
      two windows to cut and paste these emails together.

      "West - leads the Spade King ; he follows the next 2
      Heart/trump leads; and on the 4th trick he throws off
      the Diamond Ten.
      What does that tell us?
      West has no more Hearts/trump."

      Agreed

      "Can we agree that West has no more Spades? If he had
      a Spade, he would have discarded it on the 4th lead as
      it cannot win a trick. KIA
      So West has either a Club or another Diamond. (I would
      argue that West cannot have a 9 of Diamonds as he
      should discard it rather than the 10.)"

      Not necessarily, but it's not a bad assumption. I
      will agree. I don't like holding the 10d but if it's
      all I got then I'll keep it. However, if he had a
      9-10 he's screwed anyways and it wouldn't matter what
      he played.

      "The logical choice is the Diamond King, it gives you
      the best chance to win a trick in Diamonds and it
      gives your partner the best chance to ruff. "

      This is where I disagree. Even though it would be an
      eventual loser because of the situation, you have to
      remove the 'taint' of knowledge of your opponent's
      hand because that's what the player is experiencing.
      From what west can see, he has a protected King and he
      sees a good way to cover two suits.

      Natty's view is:

      The correct lead, from the new
      scenario posited (see below), is
      the king of spades, not the king
      of diamonds. You hold back on
      diamonds to guard the king, on
      the chance the loner's offsuit
      holding is a diamond doubleton.

      And therefore leading the king
      of diamonds does NOT give you
      "the best chance to win a trick
      in diamonds." It gives you the
      SECOND best chance to win a trick
      in diamonds. In other words, the
      WORST chance."

      I would actually say he's wrong in that leading King
      is 2nd best. I think a better lead would be to lead
      the 10d and try to promote the King. It's a risky
      play which could end up with the Opponent eating the
      10d with a lowly Queen and marching all over you.
      Crazy hypotheticals once again, it works here by dumb
      luck.

      I would say it was the best play, but that's only
      because of the 'taint' of knowledge that I normally
      would not have.

      So going back to whether dropping the 10d is
      meaningful or meaningless, I would have to retract
      what I said because it is meaningful. But, it would
      tell me the exact opposite of what you suggested. In
      your own experience how many times, while defending a
      loner, do you see a small card played right before a
      big card of the same suit? It happens frequently
      because it's a good bet.

      Here's another reason why the 10d doesn't tell me west
      has a club. He led the spade and then later dropped
      the next suit 10d. Seeing this I have to assume that
      my p does not know to lead next to exploit my void, or
      at least is doing so for a good reason. So I'm
      guessing he has a high diamond and that would tell me
      I should drop my diamond.

      I may just go with Hubris anyways and throw my club
      because I wouldn't have had time to deduce this in the
      heat of the game! LOL!

      That's my analysis and I'm sticking with it.

      Kieno



      --- maunetcomcom@... wrote:

      > You have to be joking!
      > When defending the loner, you actually think that
      > you're better off protecting your offsuit King
      > against a possible doubleton returns greater results
      > than giving your partner the chance to RUFF or your
      > winning the trick outright. Give me a break.
      > What happened to your lead the offsuit 'rule of
      > thumb' in the other thread?
      >
      > And thanks, your throw away lines
      > "And why NOT lead the king of SPADES?
      >
      > If it's going to take the last trick,
      >
      > it's going to take the first trick."
      > is one of the better examples of the "Begging the
      > Question" fallacy I've seen in some time.
      >
      > ----- Original Message ----
      > From: Natty Bumppo <borf@...>
      > To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
      > Sent: Friday, August 31, 2007 8:27:12 PM
      > Subject: [EuchreScience] . . . when you're getting
      > squeezed?
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > The correct lead, from the new
      >
      > scenario posited (see below), is
      >
      > the king of spades, not the king
      >
      > of diamonds. You hold back on
      >
      > diamonds to guard the king, on
      >
      > the chance the loner's offsuit
      >
      > holding is a diamond doubleton.
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > And therefore leading the king
      >
      > of diamonds does NOT give you
      >
      > "the best chance to win a trick
      >
      > in diamonds." It gives you the
      >
      > SECOND best chance to win a trick
      >
      > in diamonds. In other words, the
      >
      > WORST chance.
      >
      >
      >
      > You can posit the proscription
      >
      > against leading the king of
      >
      > diamonds formulaically, as well:
      >
      > Don't lead a king away from its
      >
      > guard, and don't lead AWAY from
      >
      > a king on FIRST TRICK. Loner
      >
      > or no.
      >
      >
      >
      > And why NOT lead the king of SPADES?
      >
      > If it's going to take the last trick,
      >
      > it's going to take the first trick.
      >
      >
      >
      > maunetcomcom@ ... wrote:
      >
      >
      >
      > > . . . Let's suppose [West] has
      >
      > > a diamond -- for the sake of
      >
      > > discussion, the king.
      >
      > >
      >
      > > Now back to the opening lead. You
      >
      > > are West, you're on lead trying to
      >
      > > defend [against] the described loner
      >
      > > with . . . Ks, 9h, Qh, 10d, Kd. What
      >
      > > do you lead? The logical choice is
      >
      > > the diamond king. It gives you the
      >
      > > best chance to win a trick in diamonds
      >
      > > and it gives your partner the best
      >
      > > chance to ruff. . . .
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
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    • Kien Tran
      ... I always overlook something important. If the Kd was in west s hand, then it isn t in your opponent s. So scratch what I said about dumb luck. It s not
      Message 2 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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        >
        > I would actually say he's wrong in that leading King
        > is 2nd best. I think a better lead would be to lead
        > the 10d and try to promote the King. It's a risky
        > play which could end up with the Opponent eating the
        > 10d with a lowly Queen and marching all over you.
        > Crazy hypotheticals once again, it works here by
        > dumb
        > luck.

        I always overlook something important. If the Kd was
        in west's hand, then it isn't in your opponent's. So
        scratch what I said about dumb luck. It's not certain
        to work.



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      • scolar2
        ... The Kd lead will win a trick that the Ks lead will not when partner ruffs with a trump lower than the Jh and maker plays the singleton Ad. It has to be
        Message 3 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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          > maunetcomcom@ ... wrote:

          > Now back to the opening lead. You
          > are West, you're on lead trying to
          > defend [against] the described loner
          > with . . . Ks, 9h, Qh, 10d, Kd. What
          > do you lead? The logical choice is
          > the diamond king. It gives you the
          > best chance to win a trick in diamonds
          > and it gives your partner the best
          > chance to ruff. . .


          The Kd lead will win a trick that the Ks lead will not when
          partner ruffs with a trump lower than the Jh and maker plays
          the singleton Ad. It has to be the singleton Ad because after
          the Ks lead, your last two cards after maker draws trump will
          be K10d and you will simply win the diamond trick later rather
          than sooner. That is not a win for the Kd lead.

          The Kd lead will lose a trick that the Ks lead will not when
          maker has AQd or A9d and partner has to follow suit or doesn't
          have any trump. Even if your 10d is a winner, you will throw
          it to save the Ks. The Kd lead is better than leading the 10d,
          but it risks disaster.

          The decisive factor for me in choosing the lead is that having
          two trumps on lead into a loner substantially reduces the
          probability of partner having a trump to ruff with. Give maker
          a typical 4-card trump suit for a loner, and partner will have
          only a 5 out of 13 chance of having a trump. Combine that with
          the required diamond void and the required singleton Ad in the
          maker's hand, and you can see why I prefer the Ks lead.


          Mini-quiz: There is another way that the Kd lead could win a
          trick that the Ks lead would not. Who can find it?


          ---Tom---
        • Ron Brown
          The only thing I could think of, but I only gave it a couple of min, is if your p trumped...it could promote your Q to high trump, after 2nd trick, if caller
          Message 4 of 28 , Sep 1, 2007
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            The only thing I could think of, but I only gave it a couple of min, is if your p trumped...it could promote your Q to high trump, after 2nd trick, if caller held XX10 of trump

            scolar2 <scolar4@...> wrote:


            Mini-quiz: There is another way that the Kd lead could win a
            trick that the Ks lead would not. Who can find it?


            ---Tom---



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