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Luck in euchre

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  • ruthenium4
    I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a 33% rule. That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33% of the time, win
    Message 1 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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      I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
      33% rule. That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
      of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
      will come down to the skill of the players.

      Is this the experience of the players here? I know I've lost to some
      brutally bad play but one third of the time, that sounds high.

      To me, it seems like an expert player should win more often than 67%
      of the time.

      Incidentally, I was pondering this question and thought I'd use the
      Euchre Calculator to see what it thinks. Unfortunately, if you move
      the player skill level over to one side, it says there is a 98% chance
      that the more skilled team would win. I think this is a bit high. It
      seems that if you made all the wrong plays but still followed the
      rules of euchre, you would win more than 2% of the time.
    • bananastew
      This is what makes sense to me you don t have to be an expert to win 67% ot your games. All you have to be isselective who you partner and play against. if
      Message 2 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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        This is what makes sense to me
        you don't have to be an expert to win 67% ot your games. All you have
        to be isselective who you partner and play against. if your team
        skill is average and your opponents are always somewhat useless your
        winning record shuold be terrific. Maybe even 70%
        Assuming card luck is balanced for both teams (a fair deal) and
        player skill is "identical' on both teams > overall both team should
        win the same amount of games when they play together. expert or not
        50% winning rate would be the medium norm.

        if luck is appropriately set at 66% in eucher even very "worst"
        players are going towin 33% of their games against anybody
        including "experts. I think adding their limited skill to the lucky
        wins should win them at least one more game in every 10 against the
        expert. poorest of players as competition for experts would give
        these experts pretty well a maximum 63-64% winning record. But
        since "expert" players don't like to oppose lousy players their
        winning % cannot be expected to be anywhere near 63-64%.
        Playing against good player with their own skill 20% higher than
        their opponants, experts should only win 56-57 % of the time.

        To sum this up. I think if you put a very good palyer in a tournament
        with only other good players he will not win near 63%. but put him on
        an internet euchre site with a pool of players who are mainly below
        average at best with careful oponent selction he can get near that
        number.






        --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "ruthenium4" <thejoggler@...>
        wrote:
        >
        > I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre
        has a
        > 33% rule. That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
        > of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
        > will come down to the skill of the players.
        >
        > Is this the experience of the players here? I know I've lost to
        some
        > brutally bad play but one third of the time, that sounds high.
        >
        > To me, it seems like an expert player should win more often than 67%
        > of the time.
        >
        > Incidentally, I was pondering this question and thought I'd use the
        > Euchre Calculator to see what it thinks. Unfortunately, if you move
        > the player skill level over to one side, it says there is a 98%
        chance
        > that the more skilled team would win. I think this is a bit high.
        It
        > seems that if you made all the wrong plays but still followed the
        > rules of euchre, you would win more than 2% of the time.
        >
      • bananastew
        Playing against good player with their own skill 20% higher than their opponants, experts should only win 56-57 % of the time. This should read experts should
        Message 3 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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          Playing against good player with their own skill 20% higher than
          their opponants, experts should only win 56-57 % of the time.

          This should read 'experts should win only 53 -54 % of the time.

          sorry



          --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew" <bookcasedust@...>
          wrote:
          >
          > This is what makes sense to me
          > you don't have to be an expert to win 67% ot your games. All you
          have
          > to be isselective who you partner and play against. if your team
          > skill is average and your opponents are always somewhat useless
          your
          > winning record shuold be terrific. Maybe even 70%
          > Assuming card luck is balanced for both teams (a fair deal) and
          > player skill is "identical' on both teams > overall both team
          should
          > win the same amount of games when they play together. expert or not
          > 50% winning rate would be the medium norm.
          >
          > if luck is appropriately set at 66% in eucher even very "worst"
          > players are going towin 33% of their games against anybody
          > including "experts. I think adding their limited skill to the
          lucky
          > wins should win them at least one more game in every 10 against
          the
          > expert. poorest of players as competition for experts would give
          > these experts pretty well a maximum 63-64% winning record. But
          > since "expert" players don't like to oppose lousy players their
          > winning % cannot be expected to be anywhere near 63-64%.
          > Playing against good player with their own skill 20% higher than
          > their opponants, experts should only win 56-57 % of the time.
          >
          > To sum this up. I think if you put a very good palyer in a
          tournament
          > with only other good players he will not win near 63%. but put him
          on
          > an internet euchre site with a pool of players who are mainly below
          > average at best with careful oponent selction he can get near that
          > number.
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "ruthenium4" <thejoggler@>
          > wrote:
          > >
          > > I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre
          > has a
          > > 33% rule. That is no matter what your skill level you will lose
          33%
          > > of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
          > > will come down to the skill of the players.
          > >
          > > Is this the experience of the players here? I know I've lost to
          > some
          > > brutally bad play but one third of the time, that sounds high.
          > >
          > > To me, it seems like an expert player should win more often than
          67%
          > > of the time.
          > >
          > > Incidentally, I was pondering this question and thought I'd use
          the
          > > Euchre Calculator to see what it thinks. Unfortunately, if you
          move
          > > the player skill level over to one side, it says there is a 98%
          > chance
          > > that the more skilled team would win. I think this is a bit
          high.
          > It
          > > seems that if you made all the wrong plays but still followed the
          > > rules of euchre, you would win more than 2% of the time.
          > >
          >
        • Sword_4_hire
          ruthenium4 wrote: I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a 33% rule. That is no matter what your skill
          Message 4 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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            ruthenium4 <thejoggler@...> wrote:
            I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
            33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
            of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
            will come down to the skill of the players.
            As a simple 'rule of thumb' this statement has merit.  But if you study the question carefully you will find that Andrew's statement is vague.  The crux of the problem is the definition of luck in a euchre context.  I have a definition, but it is not generally accepted. Luck consists of 2 factors:
            1)  How good is the opposition. 
            2)  The 'luck' of good cards
             
            I can eliminate 'luck' by creating a team that plays euchre with absolutely NO SKILL and gets cards that are as good as mine.  I can do this as follows: 
            1) The opposition always Passes (this is not a random decision...but one must make compromises in life)
            2) The opposition always plays cards randomly within the constraints of the rules.
            3) Play 300 games (practical, yet 'fairly' accurate)
             
            An elite team will win 90% of the games in circumstances as outlined above.  (My guess) 

            Is this the experience of the players here?  I know I've lost to some
            brutally bad play but one third of the time, that sounds high.
            (My Sword_4_hire ID was 68% win over 1126 games.  It was used exclusively in Yahoo Mountains.  I liked Mckinley best and attaining a high ladder position meant nothing to me.  I never played with a partner with more loses than wins.  Anyways...my point is that assuming I did not play perfectly ... and I had many partners told me how bad I was ... and assuming the various competition played with some degree of skill  ... a majority of my competition thought they were better than average ... I still beat Andrew's 1/3 luck theory.  Now, if I could play better and my competition had no skill, I am sure I would be in the 80% win plus.  (IMO)

            To me, it seems like an expert player should win more often than 67%
            of the time. 
            (An expert team will win 50% of the time against another expert team over many games.  You would have to qualify the circumstances of play in which you theorize 67%)

            Incidentally, I was pondering this question and thought I'd use the
            Euchre Calculator to see what it thinks.  Unfortunately, if you move
            the player skill level over to one side, it says there is a 98% chance
            that the more skilled team would win.  I think this is a bit high.  It
            seems that if you made all the wrong plays but still followed the
            rules of euchre, you would win more than 2% of the time.
            The Euchre Calculator is best used in the following context:  If I win X% of the time, how many points am I outscoring the opposition by per hand.  For example, if you win 67% percent of the time you can move the SKILL slider up and down various numbers of points, hit the CALCULATE button and when you consistently come up with a win % of approx. 67% you know you are outscoring the opposition by that number of points.  (about .21 pts / hand for someone that wins 67% of the time)
            Aside:  To mentally estimate how many points you outscore the opposition by per hand cannot be accurately conceptualized. (IMO - In My Opinion)






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          • Sword_4_hire
            I agree with this analysis except for possibly the statement: an internet euchre site with a pool of players who are mainly below average I would define a
            Message 5 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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              I agree with this analysis except for possibly the statement:
              "an internet euchre site with a pool of players who are mainly below average"
              I would define a site like Yahoo, with 3000 or so people playing at any one time to have a large enough number of players to represent average players.  Admittly, your definition of 'average' is as good as mine. :)

              bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:
              This is what makes sense to me
              you don't have to be an expert to win 67% ot your games. All you have
              to be isselective who you partner and play against. if your team
              skill is average and your opponents are always somewhat useless your
              winning record shuold be terrific. Maybe even 70%
              Assuming card luck is balanced for both teams (a fair deal) and
              player skill is "identical' on both teams > overall both team should
              win the same amount of games when they play together. expert or not
              50% winning rate would be the medium norm.

              if luck is appropriately set at 66% in eucher even very "worst"
              players are going towin 33% of their games against anybody
              including "experts.  I think adding their limited skill to the lucky
              wins should win them at least one more  game in every 10 against the
              expert. poorest of players as competition for experts would give
              these experts pretty well a maximum 63-64% winning record. But
              since "expert" players don't  like to oppose lousy players  their
              winning % cannot be expected to be anywhere near  63-64%.
              Playing against good player with their own skill 20% higher than
              their opponants, experts should only win 56-57 % of the time.

              To sum this up. I think if you put a very good palyer in a tournament
              with only other good players he will not win near 63%. but put him on
              an internet euchre site with a pool of players who are mainly below
              average at best with careful oponent selction he can get near that
              number.  

                     
               



              --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "ruthenium4" <thejoggler@...>
              wrote:
              >
              > I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre
              has a
              > 33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
              > of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
              > will come down to the skill of the players.
              >
              > Is this the experience of the players here?  I know I've lost to
              some
              > brutally bad play but one third of the time, that sounds high.
              >
              > To me, it seems like an expert player should win more often than 67%
              > of the time. 
              >
              > Incidentally, I was pondering this question and thought I'd use the
              > Euchre Calculator to see what it thinks.  Unfortunately, if you move
              > the player skill level over to one side, it says there is a 98%
              chance
              > that the more skilled team would win.  I think this is a bit high. 
              It
              > seems that if you made all the wrong plays but still followed the
              > rules of euchre, you would win more than 2% of the time.
              >






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            • bananastew
              ... has a ... some ... chance ... It ... i think so too. That adjustment on this calculater has me confused a bit. I can t figure out where to get the
              Message 6 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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                --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "ruthenium4" <thejoggler@...>
                wrote:
                >
                > I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre
                has a
                > 33% rule. That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
                > of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                > will come down to the skill of the players.
                >
                > Is this the experience of the players here? I know I've lost to
                some
                > brutally bad play but one third of the time, that sounds high.
                >
                > To me, it seems like an expert player should win more often than 67%
                > of the time.
                >
                > Incidentally, I was pondering this question and thought I'd use the
                > Euchre Calculator to see what it thinks. Unfortunately, if you move
                > the player skill level over to one side, it says there is a 98%
                chance
                > that the more skilled team would win. I think this is a bit high.
                It
                > seems that if you made all the wrong plays but still followed the
                > rules of euchre, you would win more than 2% of the time.
                >
                i think so too.
                That adjustment on this calculater has me confused a bit. I can't
                figure out where to get the infromation that tells me who the better
                skilled taem is and what to set that box on. The best i can figure
                when i fiddle with numbers on paper and try and relate them to this
                box is each +.o1 represents 10% more skill for the dealing team.

                I figured that using the 66% luck factor you mentioned. If 66% is
                luck then 34% remains to be decided. If one team is 10% greatter
                skilled i think it figures out they will win about52% and lose 48% of
                those 34% meaning the 10% better skilled should actually win 50.7
                games. if you set that box @ .01 dealer favor the calculator will
                show about 51.8.

                Likewise, if you consider one team has 20% more skill they should win
                about 54.5% and lose about 45.5% of the games not decided by luck.
                Thier wins would be about 51.5 games and if you set the calculator
                on .02 to represent 20% more skill the calculator results will read
                52.6 win rate. etc 30%, etc 40%, etc...

                Finally, set the calculator on .20 to represent one team as being 4
                times better than their opponent and you get 66.1 wins. About 66.1
                wins plus 33 wins the opponts get by luck only almost max's out the
                wins available 100. Looks like if luck delivers 33% of wins, a team
                only needs to b about 4 and one quarter times better than the
                opponents to win all the games. heh heh

                it appears sliding the box all the way right or left takes it to a
                unattianable territory. That aside, how can this box be used
                accurately? Is there a calculation that determines a teams skill
                level? Is the athor of this gizmo around to comment?
              • bananastew
                ... below average ... at any one time to have a large enough number of players to represent average players. Admittly, your definition of average is as
                Message 7 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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                  --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...>
                  wrote:
                  >
                  > I agree with this analysis except for possibly the statement:
                  > "an internet euchre site with a pool of players who are mainly
                  below average"
                  > I would define a site like Yahoo, with 3000 or so people playing
                  at any one time to have a large enough number of players to represent
                  average players. Admittly, your definition of 'average' is as good
                  as mine. :)



                  "Admittly, your definition of 'average' is as good as mine.' :)


                  awfully glad you clarified. i thought you being sarcastic too.




                  >
                  > bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:
                  > This is what makes sense to me
                  > you don't have to be an expert to win 67% ot your games. All you
                  have
                  > to be isselective who you partner and play against. if your team
                  > skill is average and your opponents are always somewhat useless
                  your
                  > winning record shuold be terrific. Maybe even 70%
                  > Assuming card luck is balanced for both teams (a fair deal) and
                  > player skill is "identical' on both teams > overall both team
                  should
                  > win the same amount of games when they play together. expert or not
                  > 50% winning rate would be the medium norm.
                  >
                  > if luck is appropriately set at 66% in eucher even very "worst"
                  > players are going towin 33% of their games against anybody
                  > including "experts. I think adding their limited skill to the
                  lucky
                  > wins should win them at least one more game in every 10 against
                  the
                  > expert. poorest of players as competition for experts would give
                  > these experts pretty well a maximum 63-64% winning record. But
                  > since "expert" players don't like to oppose lousy players their
                  > winning % cannot be expected to be anywhere near 63-64%.
                  > Playing against good player with their own skill 20% higher than
                  > their opponants, experts should only win 56-57 % of the time.
                  >
                  > To sum this up. I think if you put a very good palyer in a
                  tournament
                  > with only other good players he will not win near 63%. but put him
                  on
                  > an internet euchre site with a pool of players who are mainly below
                  > average at best with careful oponent selction he can get near that
                  > number.
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "ruthenium4" <thejoggler@>
                  > wrote:
                  > >
                  > > I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre
                  > has a
                  > > 33% rule. That is no matter what your skill level you will lose
                  33%
                  > > of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                  > > will come down to the skill of the players.
                  > >
                  > > Is this the experience of the players here? I know I've lost to
                  > some
                  > > brutally bad play but one third of the time, that sounds high.
                  > >
                  > > To me, it seems like an expert player should win more often than
                  67%
                  > > of the time.
                  > >
                  > > Incidentally, I was pondering this question and thought I'd use
                  the
                  > > Euchre Calculator to see what it thinks. Unfortunately, if you
                  move
                  > > the player skill level over to one side, it says there is a 98%
                  > chance
                  > > that the more skilled team would win. I think this is a bit
                  high.
                  > It
                  > > seems that if you made all the wrong plays but still followed the
                  > > rules of euchre, you would win more than 2% of the time.
                  > >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
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                  >
                  > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
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                  >
                  >
                  > ---------------------------------
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
                  >
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                • Sword_4_hire
                  bananastew wrote: it appears sliding the box all the way right or left takes it to a unattianable territory. That aside, how can
                  Message 8 of 24 , May 3, 2006
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                    bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:


                    it appears sliding the box all the way right or left takes it to a
                    unattianable territory. That aside, how can this box be used
                    accurately? Is there a calculation that determines a teams skill
                    level?     Is the athor of this gizmo around to comment?

                    If you put the cursor on top of the label "TEAM SKILL LEVEL EQUAL" a short explanation will appear.  It says "SKILL LEVEL measured in average number of points one team outscores the other in a hand". 

                        Initially, the setting is 0 points.  This means each team has an equal amount of skill.
                        If a team outscores another team by .2 points per hand on average, that team will win 66% of its games.
                        
                    If a team outscores another team by 1 points per hand on average, that team will win 98% of its games.  (This is highly unlikely)
                        To be candid, the "SKILL SLIDER" of the software is of little practical use because the concept of outscoring another team by "X" points per hand is not the way we conceptualize the game.  (For example, it is difficult to think of winning a hand by .18 points)

                    Sword (the author)









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                  • Perry Romanowski
                    If a team outscores another team by 1 points per hand on average, that team will win 98% of its games. (This is highly unlikely) Not only is it highly
                    Message 9 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                      "If a team outscores another team by 1 points per hand on average, that team will win 98% of its games.  (This is highly unlikely)"

                      Not only is it highly unlikely, it doesn't seem possible.  If a team scored on average 1 point per hand more than their opponents, wouldn't they would win 100% of their games?

                      On 5/3/06, Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                      bananastew <bookcasedust@... > wrote:


                      it appears sliding the box all the way right or left takes it to a
                      unattianable territory. That aside, how can this box be used
                      accurately? Is there a calculation that determines a teams skill
                      level?     Is the athor of this gizmo around to comment?

                      If you put the cursor on top of the label "TEAM SKILL LEVEL EQUAL" a short explanation will appear.  It says "SKILL LEVEL measured in average number of points one team outscores the other in a hand". 

                          Initially, the setting is 0 points.  This means each team has an equal amount of skill.
                          If a team outscores another team by .2 points per hand on average, that team will win 66% of its games.
                          
                      If a team outscores another team by 1 points per hand on average, that team will win 98% of its games.  (This is highly unlikely)
                          To be candid, the "SKILL SLIDER" of the software is of little practical use because the concept of outscoring another team by "X" points per hand is not the way we conceptualize the game.  (For example, it is difficult to think of winning a hand by .18 points)

                      Sword (the author)









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                    • Natty Bumppo
                      Connie Mack, the legendary owner/manager of the old Philadelphia A s, said Pitching is 75 per cent of baseball. And who s to argue with him? Let s take two
                      Message 10 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                        Connie Mack, the legendary owner/manager of the old Philadelphia A's,
                        said "Pitching is 75 per cent of baseball."

                        And who's to argue with him?

                        Let's take two examples from 1951, the year after Mack's retirement as
                        manager.

                        Mack's lowly A's won only 46 per cent of their games that year, but
                        they won 64 per cent when Mack's protege "Little Bobby" Shantz was
                        pitching.

                        And the dreadful St. Louis Browns won only 34 per cent of their games,
                        but they won 63 per cent when Ned Garver was pitching.

                        The import of Mack's pronouncement was that what a pitcher does (or
                        doesn't) outweighs, by three times, everything the other eight players
                        on a team combined do.

                        But that cannot be the case in euchre: There is no essential
                        difference between the roles of the two partners, as there is between
                        the roles of pitcher and batter/fielder. So the "33 per cent rule"
                        can mean that one partner will control a team's fate a third of the
                        time, the other will control it a third of the time, and luck will
                        control it a third of the time. It's incalculable, with all the
                        variables; but it's not a bad rule of thumb. (Note: "Control a team's
                        fate" can mean cause a loss as well as cause a win.)

                        The biggest consistent variable in euchre, as anyone who has played a
                        lot at random on Yahoo knows, is the skill of one's partner.

                        Which brings us back to Bobby Shantz. He won only 51 per cent of his
                        games in all the years he pitched for the A's, but he won 63 per cent
                        of the games he pitched in later years for the New York Yankees.

                        And if the luck of the draw of one's partner is a factor, I'd go back
                        to Connie Mack: Luck is 75 per cent of euchre.


                        "ruthenium4" <thejoggler@...> wrote:

                        > I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has
                        > a 33% rule. That is no matter what your skill level you will lose
                        > 33% of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the
                        > time will come down to the skill of the players. . . .
                      • Michael Urban
                        Example: Team B wins 1 match 10-0 in 10 hands. Team A wins 4 matches 10-0 in 20 hands. Team A outscored B, 40-10 in 30 hands, or 30pts/30hands, +1pt per hand.
                        Message 11 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                          Example:
                           
                          Team B wins 1 match 10-0 in 10 hands.
                          Team A wins 4 matches 10-0 in 20 hands.
                          Team A outscored B, 40-10 in 30 hands, or 30pts/30hands, +1pt per hand.
                          Team B won 20% of the matches played.

                          Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                          "If a team outscores another team by 1 points per hand on average, that team will win 98% of its games.  (This is highly unlikely)"

                          Not only is it highly unlikely, it doesn't seem possible.  If a team scored on average 1 point per hand more than their opponents, wouldn't they would win 100% of their games?

                          On 5/3/06, Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                          bananastew <bookcasedust@... > wrote:


                          it appears sliding the box all the way right or left takes it to a
                          unattianable territory. That aside, how can this box be used
                          accurately? Is there a calculation that determines a teams skill
                          level?     Is the athor of this gizmo around to comment?

                          If you put the cursor on top of the label "TEAM SKILL LEVEL EQUAL" a short explanation will appear.  It says "SKILL LEVEL measured in average number of points one team outscores the other in a hand". 

                              Initially, the setting is 0 points.  This means each team has an equal amount of skill.
                              If a team outscores another team by .2 points per hand on average, that team will win 66% of its games.
                              
                          If a team outscores another team by 1 points per hand on average, that team will win 98% of its games.  (This is highly unlikely)
                              To be candid, the "SKILL SLIDER" of the software is of little practical use because the concept of outscoring another team by "X" points per hand is not the way we conceptualize the game.  (For example, it is difficult to think of winning a hand by .18 points)

                          Sword (the author)









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                        • Michael Urban
                          Sword_4_hire wrote: ruthenium4 wrote: I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
                          Message 12 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                            Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                            ruthenium4 <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                            I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
                            33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
                            of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                            will come down to the skill of the players.
                            As a simple 'rule of thumb' this statement has merit.  But if you study the question carefully you will find that Andrew's statement is vague.  The crux of the problem is the definition of luck in a euchre context.  I have a definition, but it is not generally accepted. Luck consists of 2 factors:
                            1)  How good is the opposition. 
                            2)  The 'luck' of good cards
                             
                            A better definition is simply 2.
                            Luck is the vagaries of the cards; "How good is the opposition." is SKILL, it's really that simple.
                            If your opposition gets 3 laydown-loners in a row, they had luck.  If they failed to call them, they have a lack of SKILL.
                             
                            Michael.
                             


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                          • Sword_4_hire
                            Michael Urban wrote: Sword_4_hire wrote: ruthenium4 wrote: I recently read an
                            Message 13 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                              Michael Urban <maunetcomcom@...> wrote:


                              Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                              ruthenium4 <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                              I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
                              33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
                              of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                              will come down to the skill of the players.
                              As a simple 'rule of thumb' this statement has merit.  But if you study the question carefully you will find that Andrew's statement is vague.  The crux of the problem is the definition of luck in a euchre context.  I have a definition, but it is not generally accepted. Luck consists of 2 factors:
                              1)  How good is the opposition. 
                              2)  The 'luck' of good cards
                               
                              A better definition is simply 2.
                              Luck is the vagaries of the cards; "How good is the opposition." is SKILL, it's really that simple.
                              If your opposition gets 3 laydown-loners in a row, they had luck.  If they failed to call them, they have a lack of SKILL.
                               
                              Michael.
                               
                              My basic point is ... Andrew's can make a broad number of valid statements by which he may assign the results of euchre games to 'luck'.  This is because there is not a quantitative definition of 'luck'.
                               
                                ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that attempts to measure 'luck')
                               
                              Sword

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                            • bananastew
                              ... accurately measure it .... and Andrew s is making a statement that attempts to measure luck ) ... I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say
                              Message 14 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                >
                                > ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to
                                accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that
                                attempts to measure 'luck')
                                >
                                > Sword


                                I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say pick one. is
                                the chance of you pivking the club not 50-50. Isn't that a
                                measurement?

                                I deal one card from a stack of 3 to each of 3 players already
                                sitting at a table. high card wins. all luck? Can your chance to win
                                not be calculated?



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                              • Michael Urban
                                Sword_4_hire wrote: Michael Urban wrote: Sword_4_hire wrote: ruthenium4
                                Message 15 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                  Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                  Michael Urban <maunetcomcom@...> wrote:


                                  Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                  ruthenium4 <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                                  I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
                                  33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
                                  of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                                  will come down to the skill of the players.
                                  As a simple 'rule of thumb' this statement has merit.  But if you study the question carefully you will find that Andrew's statement is vague.  The crux of the problem is the definition of luck in a euchre context.  I have a definition, but it is not generally accepted. Luck consists of 2 factors:
                                  1)  How good is the opposition. 
                                  2)  The 'luck' of good cards
                                   
                                  A better definition is simply 2.
                                  Luck is the vagaries of the cards; "How good is the opposition." is SKILL, it's really that simple.
                                  If your opposition gets 3 laydown-loners in a row, they had luck.  If they failed to call them, they have a lack of SKILL.
                                   
                                  Michael.
                                   
                                  My basic point is ... Andrew's can make a broad number of valid statements by which he may assign the results of euchre games to 'luck'.  This is because there is not a quantitative definition of 'luck'.
                                   
                                    ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that attempts to measure 'luck')
                                   
                                  Sword
                                   
                                  Walter Trice writes on 'Recognizing Luck', "Almost by definition, a weak player is one who can get great cards and not realize it."
                                    I paraphraze with the word 'cards'.

                                   

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                                • Michael Urban
                                  Sword_4_hire wrote: Michael Urban wrote: Sword_4_hire wrote: ruthenium4
                                  Message 16 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                    Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                    Michael Urban <maunetcomcom@...> wrote:


                                    Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                    ruthenium4 <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                                    I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
                                    33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
                                    of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                                    will come down to the skill of the players.
                                    As a simple 'rule of thumb' this statement has merit.  But if you study the question carefully you will find that Andrew's statement is vague.  The crux of the problem is the definition of luck in a euchre context.  I have a definition, but it is not generally accepted. Luck consists of 2 factors:
                                    1)  How good is the opposition. 
                                    2)  The 'luck' of good cards
                                     
                                    A better definition is simply 2.
                                    Luck is the vagaries of the cards; "How good is the opposition." is SKILL, it's really that simple.
                                    If your opposition gets 3 laydown-loners in a row, they had luck.  If they failed to call them, they have a lack of SKILL.
                                     
                                    Michael.
                                     
                                    My basic point is ... Andrew's can make a broad number of valid statements by which he may assign the results of euchre games to 'luck'.  This is because there is not a quantitative definition of 'luck'.
                                     
                                      ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that attempts to measure 'luck')
                                     
                                    Sword
                                     
                                    Walter Trice writes on 'Recognizing Luck', "Almost by definition, a weak player is one who can get great cards and not realize it."
                                      I paraphraze with the word 'cards'.

                                     


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                                  • Sword_4_hire
                                    ... accurately measure it .... and Andrew s is making a statement that attempts to measure luck ) ... I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say
                                    Message 17 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                      bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:



                                      >   
                                      >     ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to
                                      accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that
                                      attempts to measure 'luck')
                                      >   
                                      >   Sword


                                      I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say pick one. is
                                      the chance of you pivking the club not 50-50. Isn't that a
                                      measurement? Obviously, this is a measurement. 

                                      I deal one card from a stack of 3 to each of 3 players already
                                      sitting at a table. high card wins. all luck? Can your chance to win
                                      not be calculated? Yes they can.
                                      These are examples of simple random events that can be measured. 
                                       
                                      My statements are about quantitatively measuring "luck" in a euchre context.  This is not simple.
                                      If I play 20 games and win 10....how "Lucky" was I?    20% lucky?    15.6 on a 'luck' scale?  There is no standard to measure 'luck' in this context.  Thus, Andrew's can say almost anything he wants about euchre and luck and assign an arbitrary number to it.   
                                       
                                      I say euchre is 24.532% luck... prove me wrong.

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                                    • Perry Romanowski
                                      What you are describing there are the probabilities. Luck will be the difference between the expected probability and the outcome. For example, in your Two
                                      Message 18 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                        What you are describing there are the probabilities.

                                        Luck will be the difference between the expected probability and the outcome.

                                        For example, in your Two Jack example, the probability of picking a club is 50%.  If you make it a game where you get a point everytime you pick the club then you can measure the luck.  In ten trials of this game you should score (on average) 5 points.  If you get 10 points then you have a luck rating of +5.  If you score no points you are unlucky and get a rating of -5.  Someone who scores 8 points would have a +3 luck rating...etc.

                                        The same could be done for the three card example.  The measurement of luck is the difference between the actual value and the expected value.

                                        For euchre, the question is what is your expected value?  Anything better or worse than that is the meausre of your luck (or lack thereof)

                                        Incidentally, it occurs to me that one could create a euchre computer competition that eliminates all luck.  Sword could modify the simulator to allow partners to play against the computer opponents.  Then every partnership plays say 10 games and counts up points at the end.  No luck there.  A true, World Champion of Euchre could be determined.

                                        Just a thought.

                                        On 5/4/06, bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:



                                        >   
                                        >     ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to
                                        accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that
                                        attempts to measure 'luck')
                                        >   
                                        >   Sword


                                        I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say pick one. is
                                        the chance of you pivking the club not 50-50. Isn't that a
                                        measurement?

                                        I deal one card from a stack of 3 to each of 3 players already
                                        sitting at a table. high card wins. all luck? Can your chance to win
                                        not be calculated?



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                                      • Sword_4_hire
                                        Michael Urban wrote: Sword_4_hire wrote: Michael Urban wrote: Sword_4_hire
                                        Message 19 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                          Michael Urban <maunetcomcom@...> wrote:


                                          Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                          Michael Urban <maunetcomcom@...> wrote:


                                          Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                          ruthenium4 <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                                          I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
                                          33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
                                          of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                                          will come down to the skill of the players.
                                          As a simple 'rule of thumb' this statement has merit.  But if you study the question carefully you will find that Andrew's statement is vague.  The crux of the problem is the definition of luck in a euchre context.  I have a definition, but it is not generally accepted. Luck consists of 2 factors:
                                          1)  How good is the opposition. 
                                          2)  The 'luck' of good cards
                                           
                                          A better definition is simply 2.
                                          Luck is the vagaries of the cards; "How good is the opposition." is SKILL, it's really that simple.
                                          If your opposition gets 3 laydown-loners in a row, they had luck.  If they failed to call them, they have a lack of SKILL.
                                           
                                          Michael.
                                           
                                          My basic point is ... Andrew's can make a broad number of valid statements by which he may assign the results of euchre games to 'luck'.  This is because there is not a quantitative definition of 'luck'.
                                           
                                            ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that attempts to measure 'luck')
                                           
                                          Sword
                                           
                                          Walter Trice writes on 'Recognizing Luck', "Almost by definition, a weak player is one who can get great cards and not realize it."
                                            I paraphraze with the word 'cards'.

                                           Well ... I dwell on getting poor cards more than getting good ones.  What does that mean?
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                                        • Sword_4_hire
                                          Perry Romanowski wrote: What you are describing there are the probabilities. Luck will be the difference between the expected
                                          Message 20 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                            Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                                            What you are describing there are the probabilities.

                                            Luck will be the difference between the expected probability and the outcome.

                                            For example, in your Two Jack example, the probability of picking a club is 50%.  If you make it a game where you get a point everytime you pick the club then you can measure the luck.  In ten trials of this game you should score (on average) 5 points.  If you get 10 points then you have a luck rating of +5.  If you score no points you are unlucky and get a rating of -5.  Someone who scores 8 points would have a +3 luck rating...etc.

                                            The same could be done for the three card example.  The measurement of luck is the difference between the actual value and the expected value.

                                            For euchre, the question is what is your expected value?  Anything better or worse than that is the meausre of your luck (or lack thereof)
                                            This is a definition I could accept.(Not that my stamp of approval means anything)   I am still a little dubious about the measuring tool.  It is not a standard.... but, better than anything I have come up with.

                                            Incidentally, it occurs to me that one could create a euchre computer competition that eliminates all luck.  Sword could modify the simulator (actually, is a card game that has a complex utility to do simulations)  to allow partners to play against the computer opponents.  Then every partnership plays say 10 games and counts up points at the end.  No luck there.  A true, World Champion of Euchre could be determined.
                                            Actually, I had the same thought.  The software plays 2 variations of what I term "Duplicate Euchre".
                                            1)  It plays 49 hands.  Then it plays another 49 hands.  The 2nd 49 hands are identical to the 1st except the each team plays what the other team played with the 1st 49 hands.  There is one compromise.  Strategy can change as a team's score approaches 9 pts.  Because  players will play differently and approach the end of the game in a varying amount of hands...it was necessary to eliminate this variance.  To do this...the game is always played at 0 - 0 score.  The winner is the player with the most cumulated points.

                                            This can be used to have an exact comparison of one player's skill level vs. another player or a large group of players....or against the software.

                                            2)  Similar to the 1st version.  The cards are dealt out in a predictable order.  This order can be repeated many times.  Thus, one can
                                            compare of one player's skill level vs. another player(s).  You can choose how long to play.

                                            Sword 


                                            Just a thought.

                                            On 5/4/06, bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:



                                            >   
                                            >     ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to
                                            accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that
                                            attempts to measure 'luck')
                                            >   
                                            >   Sword


                                            I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say pick one. is
                                            the chance of you pivking the club not 50-50. Isn't that a
                                            measurement?

                                            I deal one card from a stack of 3 to each of 3 players already
                                            sitting at a table. high card wins. all luck? Can your chance to win
                                            not be calculated?



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                                          • bananastew
                                            ... is ... win ... measured. ... euchre context. This is not simple. ... lucky? 15.6 on a luck scale? There is no standard to measure luck in this
                                            Message 21 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                              --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...>
                                              wrote:
                                              >
                                              >
                                              >
                                              > bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:
                                              >
                                              >
                                              > >
                                              > > ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to
                                              > accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that
                                              > attempts to measure 'luck')
                                              > >
                                              > > Sword
                                              >
                                              >
                                              > I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say pick one.
                                              is
                                              > the chance of you pivking the club not 50-50. Isn't that a
                                              > measurement? Obviously, this is a measurement.
                                              >
                                              > I deal one card from a stack of 3 to each of 3 players already
                                              > sitting at a table. high card wins. all luck? Can your chance to
                                              win
                                              > not be calculated? Yes they can.
                                              > These are examples of simple random events that can be
                                              measured.
                                              >
                                              > My statements are about quantitatively measuring "luck" in a
                                              euchre context. This is not simple.
                                              > If I play 20 games and win 10....how "Lucky" was I? 20%
                                              lucky? 15.6 on a 'luck' scale? There is no standard to
                                              measure 'luck' in this context. Thus, Andrew's can say almost
                                              anything he wants about euchre and luck and assign an arbitrary
                                              number to it.
                                              >
                                              > I say euchre is 24.532% luck... prove me wrong.


                                              Firstly, your statement of claim that euchre is 24.523% luck, is too
                                              fuzzy for me. umm, am big ee us . Do you mean winning ateuchre?

                                              secondly, no proof yet.

                                              Last, On one line you say no one knows how to accurately measure lukc
                                              and later you say measuring luck is not simple. Which is it?






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                                            • Joseph J Cravero
                                              Sounds right to me: Games Played: 7263 Wins: 3893 Losses: 3370 Games Abandoned: 24 3893 / 7263 = 53.6% An Expert
                                              Message 22 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                                Sounds right to me:

                                                Games Played: 7263
                                                Wins: 3893
                                                Losses: 3370
                                                Games Abandoned: 24

                                                3893 / 7263 = 53.6%

                                                An "Expert"

                                                --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew"
                                                <bookcasedust@...> wrote:
                                                >
                                                > Playing against good player with their own skill 20% higher than
                                                > their opponants, experts should only win 56-57 % of the time.
                                                >
                                                > This should read 'experts should win only 53 -54 % of the time.
                                                >
                                                > sorry
                                                >
                                                >
                                              • bananastew
                                                Interesting , thank you. re: your no luck during euchre computer competition. Are you conceding a tie at the completion of it? If 2 eucher teams are
                                                Message 23 of 24 , May 4, 2006
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                                                  Interesting , thank you.

                                                  re: your no luck during euchre computer competition.
                                                  Are you conceding a tie at the completion of it? If 2 eucher teams
                                                  are identically skilled only luck or a combantion of luck and deceit
                                                  will result in a win for one team. For a winner to rise out in even
                                                  that comptition there has to be luck.

                                                  I'm thinking that every euchre game has 100% luck in it! if 2
                                                  identically skilled teams areplaying, one team only needs to receive
                                                  better than 50% of the luck to win. In a game with one team less
                                                  skilled there is still 100% luck in the game. But! because of an
                                                  diffrence of skill the less skilled one must receive most of the luck
                                                  to overcome and win and the worse they are the more luck they need.

                                                  eg.
                                                  Both teams have brought all their skill to the table so in asense
                                                  there is 100% of the skill there. But team A is 10% more skiled than
                                                  team B. So Team A has *52.25 % and team B has *47.75% of the skill.

                                                  If they split the 100% of the luck 50/50 team A should win. Team b
                                                  needs more luck to be winner. team B needs a % of luck minutely over
                                                  52.25% to win the game.
                                                  Looks like a variety of luck %'s is in the game of euchre but every
                                                  game totals 100% in it.

                                                  (when a jerk player says 'all luck' to a lesser player who has won
                                                  maybe its true)
                                                  *percents approx.




                                                  --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Perry Romanowski"
                                                  <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                                                  >
                                                  > What you are describing there are the probabilities.
                                                  >
                                                  > Luck will be the difference between the expected probability and the
                                                  > outcome.
                                                  >
                                                  > For example, in your Two Jack example, the probability of picking a
                                                  club is
                                                  > 50%. If you make it a game where you get a point everytime you
                                                  pick the
                                                  > club then you can measure the luck. In ten trials of this game you
                                                  should
                                                  > score (on average) 5 points. If you get 10 points then you have a
                                                  luck
                                                  > rating of +5. If you score no points you are unlucky and get a
                                                  rating of
                                                  > -5. Someone who scores 8 points would have a +3 luck rating...etc.
                                                  >
                                                  > The same could be done for the three card example. The measurement
                                                  of luck
                                                  > is the difference between the actual value and the expected value.
                                                  >
                                                  > For euchre, the question is what is your expected value? Anything
                                                  better or
                                                  > worse than that is the meausre of your luck (or lack thereof)
                                                  >
                                                  > Incidentally, it occurs to me that one could create a euchre
                                                  computer
                                                  > competition that eliminates all luck. Sword could modify the
                                                  simulator to
                                                  > allow partners to play against the computer opponents. Then every
                                                  > partnership plays say 10 games and counts up points at the end. No
                                                  luck
                                                  > there. A true, World Champion of Euchre could be determined.
                                                  >
                                                  > Just a thought.
                                                  >
                                                  > On 5/4/06, bananastew <bookcasedust@...> wrote:
                                                  > >
                                                  > >
                                                  > >
                                                  > >
                                                  > > >
                                                  > > > ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to
                                                  > > accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that
                                                  > > attempts to measure 'luck')
                                                  > > >
                                                  > > > Sword
                                                  > >
                                                  > >
                                                  > > I put both black jacks face down in front of you and say pick
                                                  one. is
                                                  > > the chance of you pivking the club not 50-50. Isn't that a
                                                  > > measurement?
                                                  > >
                                                  > > I deal one card from a stack of 3 to each of 3 players already
                                                  > > sitting at a table. high card wins. all luck? Can your chance to
                                                  win
                                                  > > not be calculated?
                                                  > >
                                                  > >
                                                  > >
                                                  > > >
                                                  > > >
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                                                • mike wheeler
                                                  I m not very good at the numbers thing but isn t luck and odds pretty much the same measurement.I think Vegas would be a broke town if they didn t have some
                                                  Message 24 of 24 , May 5, 2006
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                                                    I'm not very good at the numbers thing but isn't luck and odds pretty much the same measurement.I think Vegas would be a broke town if they didn't have some way of measuring luck.If you hit at the roulette table to many times a alert is going to go up and before you know it there will be a big mean looking guy standing behind you .Could you say that every game has odds and when you exceed those odds then you are being hit with luck?I don't know maybe this makes no sense but I was just trying to give you another way to look at it.

                                                    Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                                    Michael Urban <maunetcomcom@...> wrote:


                                                    Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                                    Michael Urban <maunetcomcom@...> wrote:


                                                    Sword_4_hire <fastfredy0@...> wrote:


                                                    ruthenium4 <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                                                    I recently read an article by Joe Andrews suggesting that euchre has a
                                                    33% rule.  That is no matter what your skill level you will lose 33%
                                                    of the time, win 33% of the time and the remaining 33% of the time
                                                    will come down to the skill of the players.
                                                    As a simple 'rule of thumb' this statement has merit.  But if you study the question carefully you will find that Andrew's statement is vague.  The crux of the problem is the definition of luck in a euchre context.  I have a definition, but it is not generally accepted. Luck consists of 2 factors:
                                                    1)  How good is the opposition. 
                                                    2)  The 'luck' of good cards
                                                     
                                                    A better definition is simply 2.
                                                    Luck is the vagaries of the cards; "How good is the opposition." is SKILL, it's really that simple.
                                                    If your opposition gets 3 laydown-loners in a row, they had luck.  If they failed to call them, they have a lack of SKILL.
                                                     
                                                    Michael.
                                                     
                                                    My basic point is ... Andrew's can make a broad number of valid statements by which he may assign the results of euchre games to 'luck'.  This is because there is not a quantitative definition of 'luck'.
                                                     
                                                      ( I know how to eliminate 'luck', but no one knows how to accurately measure it .... and Andrew's is making a statement that attempts to measure 'luck')
                                                     
                                                    Sword
                                                     
                                                    Walter Trice writes on 'Recognizing Luck', "Almost by definition, a weak player is one who can get great cards and not realize it."
                                                      I paraphraze with the word 'cards'.

                                                     Well ... I dwell on getting poor cards more than getting good ones.  What does that mean?
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