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Re: New situationist on the block

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  • bimbert84
    Hi Natty, ... Surely you agree the likelihood of an opposing loner is greater when a J is turned up instead of a 9. As I said, neither guarantees anything,
    Message 1 of 2228 , Jun 1, 2004
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      Hi Natty,

      > > To me the decision to donate is
      > > not black-and-white but different
      > > shades of gray. . . .
      >
      > The pip of the card turned has no
      > virtual bearing on a "coup." The
      > right bower you don't see is the one
      > that will crush you. And nothing
      > is easier to hide than a left bower.

      Surely you agree the likelihood of an opposing loner is greater when
      a J is turned up instead of a 9. As I said, neither guarantees
      anything, but the shade of gray gets a lot darker (for you) when the
      turnup is a J.


      > And what else does one need to know about
      > what is held?

      Well, I spelled that out in my last post. The whole point is that I
      do recognize a potential loner can lose the game right now. But the
      likelihood of such a loner being successful certainly depends on the
      cards we hold. There is a risk in passing and there is a risk in
      ordering. It's not enough to look at the worst-case scenario (i.e.
      we might lose right now) -- the relative risks must be weighed
      against each other. Three aces in my hand, coupled with a good
      chance to score myself in another suit, coupled with a low turnup
      card, is enough for me to take the risk and pass.

      Now I did mention that if one of my non-ace cards was of the upsuit,
      I'd likely order with offensive expectations. But assuming this is
      not the case, we're looking at a donation.


      > > Finally, you need to look at the score. . . .
      >
      > That was given. It was 6 to 6. Bite the bullet.

      Yes, and that was my point. Donating keeps you in the game, but at a
      significant cost. 9-6, I'll donate. But 6-6, with all the above
      factors added in? Not me. I think my chances of recovering from
      being down 8-6 are much worse than losing on a loner here. Again,
      this is assuming I have something viable to call if the dealer should
      turn it down.


      > Who knows, maybe your partner has the missing trump.

      If my P has the missing trump, there is no danger of a loner. I can
      safely pass and call on my own strength if dealer turns it down.

      -- Rob
    • robin neill
      Good comment but dealer should be SHOT.   Two probable tricks with Q & J. On Wednesday, July 22, 2015 6:09 PM, bookcasedust@hotmail.com [EuchreScience]
      Message 2228 of 2228 , Jul 22 3:20 PM
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        Good comment but dealer should be SHOT.   Two probable tricks with Q & J.



        On Wednesday, July 22, 2015 6:09 PM, "bookcasedust@... [EuchreScience]" <EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


         
        I agree with your "should have"....  Order up from 2nd seat, as it is your best to help your partner with, you have nothing at all to fight with if 1st seat should benefit from a turn down and call next, and you have nothing but a wild guess to offer your partner should 1st seat make the third mistake and pass making trump to you. Sorry, but the first mistake, the pass by 2nd seat was the worst mistake here. That's my story and i'm sticking with it.


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