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Re: New situationist on the block

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  • bimbert84
    Hi Natty, ... Surely you agree the likelihood of an opposing loner is greater when a J is turned up instead of a 9. As I said, neither guarantees anything,
    Message 1 of 2249 , Jun 1, 2004
      Hi Natty,

      > > To me the decision to donate is
      > > not black-and-white but different
      > > shades of gray. . . .
      >
      > The pip of the card turned has no
      > virtual bearing on a "coup." The
      > right bower you don't see is the one
      > that will crush you. And nothing
      > is easier to hide than a left bower.

      Surely you agree the likelihood of an opposing loner is greater when
      a J is turned up instead of a 9. As I said, neither guarantees
      anything, but the shade of gray gets a lot darker (for you) when the
      turnup is a J.


      > And what else does one need to know about
      > what is held?

      Well, I spelled that out in my last post. The whole point is that I
      do recognize a potential loner can lose the game right now. But the
      likelihood of such a loner being successful certainly depends on the
      cards we hold. There is a risk in passing and there is a risk in
      ordering. It's not enough to look at the worst-case scenario (i.e.
      we might lose right now) -- the relative risks must be weighed
      against each other. Three aces in my hand, coupled with a good
      chance to score myself in another suit, coupled with a low turnup
      card, is enough for me to take the risk and pass.

      Now I did mention that if one of my non-ace cards was of the upsuit,
      I'd likely order with offensive expectations. But assuming this is
      not the case, we're looking at a donation.


      > > Finally, you need to look at the score. . . .
      >
      > That was given. It was 6 to 6. Bite the bullet.

      Yes, and that was my point. Donating keeps you in the game, but at a
      significant cost. 9-6, I'll donate. But 6-6, with all the above
      factors added in? Not me. I think my chances of recovering from
      being down 8-6 are much worse than losing on a loner here. Again,
      this is assuming I have something viable to call if the dealer should
      turn it down.


      > Who knows, maybe your partner has the missing trump.

      If my P has the missing trump, there is no danger of a loner. I can
      safely pass and call on my own strength if dealer turns it down.

      -- Rob
    • EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
      Enter your vote today! A new poll has been created for the EuchreScience group: A new "Kindle" Euchre for the Average Player, by COBER101, says, When
      Message 2249 of 2249 , Jul 18, 2016
        Enter your vote today! A new poll has been created for the EuchreScience group:
        A new "Kindle" Euchre for the Average Player, by COBER101, says, When you pick up as dealer, discard your shortest suit even if your shortest suit is an ace because an ace is no good if it is trumped.
        Created by: wdfover50
        1. Agree
        2. Disagree


        Thanks!

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