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Re: Crazy, or Reasonable loner attempt?

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  • bimbert84
    ... Not crazy at all. The only way your P helps is if he can make the difference between 4 tricks and 5 (or saves you from getting euchred). In this case,
    Message 1 of 18 , Jul 1, 2003
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      > In my hand as dealer:
      > Ah, Ad, As, Ks, 9c
      >
      > Everyone passes on the 9s, my partner "vehemently". I pick
      > it up. And with my glance to him, he is pissed. So I call
      > alone and discard 9c.

      Not crazy at all. The only way your P helps is if he can make the
      difference between 4 tricks and 5 (or saves you from getting
      euchred). In this case, the best chance for his help amounts to him
      having the R, one of the opps having the lone L, and both falling on
      the same trick. Possible, certainly, but thin enough a chance to try
      it alone, IMO.

      -- Rob
    • Ron Brown
      loner attempt without hesitation, the only question is: what to lead after the first trick? getting set is pretty slim, but singleton ace leads might slightly
      Message 2 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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        loner attempt without hesitation, the only question is: what to lead after the first trick? getting set is pretty slim, but singleton ace leads might slightly decreas the loner, but they also decrease the chance of getting set.....i'd personally go for it and lead as you did though

        Joseph J Cravero <joeelf@...> wrote:
        OK, so I am on lunch at a local restaurant. I playing against the
        cockiest guy on my team at work, and his partner is my boss. My
        partner is the meekest guy around.

        In my hand as dealer:
        Ah, Ad, As, Ks, 9c

        Everyone passes on the 9s, my partner "vehemently". I pick it up.
        And with my glance to him, he is pissed. So I call alone and discard
        9c.

        Anyhow, Mr. Cocky leads Ac; boss follows Qc; I play 9s for the trick.

        Now, I say to the onlooker, do I lead trump or what? He says "I've
        seen the boss' hand, and can't comment". I say "I guess you lead
        trump on a loner". I lead back Ks. Cocky has none. Boss has both
        bowers, but does have a heart and a diamond and I get my point.

        From my perspective, there is no way I could have turned that down:

        I have no defense against next at first hand, and not unlikely to get
        caught in a squeeze play on any loner by first hand. Partner could
        have had 4 10's and offsuit queen for all I knew... Plus, I am
        always dying for that Missouri loner that goes through...



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      • bimbert84
        ... I disagree with this part. Your best chance of getting set is to allow multiple trump to be used against you. And the surest way to maximize that chance
        Message 3 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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          > singleton ace leads might slightly decreas the loner, but
          > they also decrease the chance of getting set

          I disagree with this part. Your best chance of getting set is to
          allow multiple trump to be used against you. And the surest way to
          maximize that chance is to lead something other than trump.

          By leading an off A, you're giving both opps the chance to cash in
          any trump they may have, separately. In this case, one little ruff
          from 1st would've secured the euchre, as 3rd held both bowers. IMO
          the best bet is to lead the trump -- the only way I see a euchre
          happening that way is a very unlikely combination of opponent's trump
          and lack of red cards.

          -- Rob
        • Ron Brown
          i agree , i thought the same after i sent the reply :-0 ... I disagree with this part. Your best chance of getting set is to allow multiple trump to be used
          Message 4 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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            i agree , i thought the same after i sent the reply   :-0
             
            bimbert84 <bimbert84@...> wrote:

            > singleton ace leads might slightly decreas the loner, but
            > they also decrease the chance of getting set

            I disagree with this part. Your best chance of getting set is to
            allow multiple trump to be used against you. And the surest way to
            maximize that chance is to lead something other than trump.

            By leading an off A, you're giving both opps the chance to cash in
            any trump they may have, separately. In this case, one little ruff
            from 1st would've secured the euchre, as 3rd held both bowers. IMO
            the best bet is to lead the trump -- the only way I see a euchre
            happening that way is a very unlikely combination of opponent's trump
            and lack of red cards.

            -- Rob



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          • TudoBem970@netscape.net
            Maybe I am having a senior moment day. I guess I am missing something logical here. I have read all the postings about this hand, and thought about it
            Message 5 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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              Maybe I am having a "senior moment" day. I guess I am missing something logical here. I have read all the postings about this hand, and thought about it after reading all the comments. Somebody enlighten me, please. What is it that makes this a loner hand? In my opinion, you have a decent chance of getting set, but should make the point. Slim to no chance for taking 4 points.
              First, you partner didn't like the call. Probably is strong in another suit, and void in spades.
              Second, if he is void in spades, all the more likely the ops have the bowers, cause you sure don't.
              Now I have been known to play a weak loner as the dealer on the second go around, but to pick up a 9 with no bowers, with your partner expressing poison darts in his eyes, and 4 trump out against you and 2 of them are the right and left, I am having trouble understanding why you would choose to play this alone. Call spades trump, yes. Play alone, no.
              Someone wake me up and tell me why a loner call is a good play here.

              Dwend

              Ron Brown <ahimsa1999@...> wrote:

              >
              >loner attempt without hesitation, the only question is: what to lead after the first trick? getting set is pretty slim, but singleton ace leads might slightly decreas the loner, but they also decrease the chance of getting set.....i'd personally go for it and lead as you did though
              >
              >Joseph J Cravero <joeelf@...> wrote:
              >OK, so I am on lunch at a local restaurant. I playing against the
              >cockiest guy on my team at work, and his partner is my boss. My
              >partner is the meekest guy around.
              >
              >In my hand as dealer:
              >Ah, Ad, As, Ks, 9c
              >
              >Everyone passes on the 9s, my partner "vehemently". I pick it up.
              >And with my glance to him, he is pissed. So I call alone and discard
              >9c.
              >
              >Anyhow, Mr. Cocky leads Ac; boss follows Qc; I play 9s for the trick.
              >
              >Now, I say to the onlooker, do I lead trump or what? He says "I've
              >seen the boss' hand, and can't comment". I say "I guess you lead
              >trump on a loner". I lead back Ks. Cocky has none. Boss has both
              >bowers, but does have a heart and a diamond and I get my point.
              >
              >From my perspective, there is no way I could have turned that down:
              >
              >I have no defense against next at first hand, and not unlikely to get
              >caught in a squeeze play on any loner by first hand. Partner could
              >have had 4 10's and offsuit queen for all I knew... Plus, I am
              >always dying for that Missouri loner that goes through...
              >
              >
              >
              >
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            • gdi_learn_2_fckn_play
              Dwend, Most of the time I will play this hand for two points. The times I will play this alone is when we need a loner to get us back in the game. For
              Message 6 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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                Dwend,

                Most of the time I will play this hand for two points. The times I
                will play this alone is when we need a loner to get us back in the
                game. For example if score is 9-3 in favor of the other team then I
                would go alone with the hand in question. Now if the score was 7-3 I
                would play for two points here becaue two points gets us back in the
                game. It also gives us time to help ourselves even though the score
                is 7-5. Now even if we don't make two it is still 7-4 we have time
                to still out play our opponents. Also by getting two points here
                rather than one, it will count on the end in the long run when the
                score eventually gets 9-8 them and your deal and if/when you get two
                points you win the game. At 9-7 you only tie the game and it is
                their deal. Thats why you play for two points. It is the little
                things that count and added up in the end that can save you and
                eventually win you the game.

                We don't know the score in this situation Dwend, but I think the crux
                of the matter was going alone based on his partners attitude towards
                his cards. I think really the only time this can be a factor is if
                your partner is someone that is astute to the game of euchre.
                Because mostlikely they will have nothing what so ever. Now with
                someone like Joseph described odds are that his partner doesn't
                realize the actual value of his hand. He just may have the bare
                right with all crap but it could be his right that helps win the team
                two points in a given situation. So I don't suscribe to Joseph's
                notion that his partner wasn't happy with his hand so thats why he
                went alone. I don't agree with that methodology. Again we don't
                know score so that might help in trying to properly anyalze the
                situation at hand.

                In conclusion, does going alone with A-K-Q AA a viable tactic?
                Yes. If used in the proper situation and at the right time. Will
                there be times that going for two points would be the proper play?
                Yes. This will be the case for the vast majority of the time with a
                hand like this.








                --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, TudoBem970@n... wrote:
                > Maybe I am having a "senior moment" day. I guess I am missing
                something logical here. I have read all the postings about this
                hand, and thought about it after reading all the comments. Somebody
                enlighten me, please. What is it that makes this a loner hand? In
                my opinion, you have a decent chance of getting set, but should make
                the point. Slim to no chance for taking 4 points.
                > First, you partner didn't like the call. Probably is strong in
                another suit, and void in spades.
                > Second, if he is void in spades, all the more likely the ops have
                the bowers, cause you sure don't.
                > Now I have been known to play a weak loner as the dealer on the
                second go around, but to pick up a 9 with no bowers, with your
                partner expressing poison darts in his eyes, and 4 trump out against
                you and 2 of them are the right and left, I am having trouble
                understanding why you would choose to play this alone. Call spades
                trump, yes. Play alone, no.
                > Someone wake me up and tell me why a loner call is a good play here.
                >
                > Dwend
                >
                > Ron Brown <ahimsa1999@y...> wrote:
                >
                > >
                > >loner attempt without hesitation, the only question is: what to
                lead after the first trick? getting set is pretty slim, but singleton
                ace leads might slightly decreas the loner, but they also decrease
                the chance of getting set.....i'd personally go for it and lead as
                you did though
                > >
                > >Joseph J Cravero <joeelf@y...> wrote:
                > >OK, so I am on lunch at a local restaurant. I playing against the
                > >cockiest guy on my team at work, and his partner is my boss. My
                > >partner is the meekest guy around.
                > >
                > >In my hand as dealer:
                > >Ah, Ad, As, Ks, 9c
                > >
                > >Everyone passes on the 9s, my partner "vehemently". I pick it up.
                > >And with my glance to him, he is pissed. So I call alone and
                discard
                > >9c.
                > >
                > >Anyhow, Mr. Cocky leads Ac; boss follows Qc; I play 9s for the
                trick.
                > >
                > >Now, I say to the onlooker, do I lead trump or what? He says "I've
                > >seen the boss' hand, and can't comment". I say "I guess you lead
                > >trump on a loner". I lead back Ks. Cocky has none. Boss has both
                > >bowers, but does have a heart and a diamond and I get my point.
                > >
                > >From my perspective, there is no way I could have turned that down:
                > >
                > >I have no defense against next at first hand, and not unlikely to
                get
                > >caught in a squeeze play on any loner by first hand. Partner could
                > >have had 4 10's and offsuit queen for all I knew... Plus, I am
                > >always dying for that Missouri loner that goes through...
                > >
                > >
                > >
                > >
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                > >
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                http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
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              • Gerry Blue
                Point of clarification. Joseph had A-K-9 AA. This makes it so that there s 4 cards that can beat his lowest trump rather than just 2. It s a minor point,
                Message 7 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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                  Point of clarification.  Joseph had A-K-9 AA.  This makes it so that there's 4 cards that can beat his lowest trump rather than just 2.  It's a minor point, perhaps, but as long as we're considering all the nuances of the situation, we should probably be accurate.
                   
                  Gerry

                  gdi_learn_2_fckn_play <anon5135@...> wrote:
                  . . . In conclusion, does going alone with A-K-Q AA a viable tactic?  . . .


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                • gdi_learn_2_fckn_play
                  A slight oversight, but what I said in my post still stands though. Thanks for the correction. ... that there s 4 cards that can beat his lowest trump rather
                  Message 8 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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                    A slight oversight, but what I said in my post still stands though.
                    Thanks for the correction.


                    --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, Gerry Blue <gblue42@y...> wrote:
                    > Point of clarification. Joseph had A-K-9 AA. This makes it so
                    that there's 4 cards that can beat his lowest trump rather than just
                    2. It's a minor point, perhaps, but as long as we're considering all
                    the nuances of the situation, we should probably be accurate.
                    >
                    > Gerry
                    >
                    > gdi_learn_2_fckn_play <anon5135@n...> wrote:
                    > . . . In conclusion, does going alone with A-K-Q AA a viable
                    tactic? . . .
                    >
                    >
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                  • Natty Bumppo
                    Thanks for the mention of the Missouri loner ! Joseph J Cravero wrote at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EuchreScience/message/2494
                    Message 9 of 18 , Jul 2, 2003
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                      Thanks for the mention of the
                      "Missouri loner"!

                      Joseph J Cravero <joeelf@...>
                      wrote at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/EuchreScience/message/2494

                      > . . . Plus, I am always dying
                      > for that Missouri loner that
                      > goes through . . . .
                    • bimbert84
                      Hi Dwend, ... I ll give you my opinion. The decision to go alone should never be based on the strength of your hand, but rather on the extent to which your
                      Message 10 of 18 , Jul 3, 2003
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                        Hi Dwend,

                        > Someone wake me up and tell me why a loner call is a good
                        > play here.

                        I'll give you my opinion.

                        The decision to go alone should never be based on the strength of
                        your hand, but rather on the extent to which your partner can help.
                        Clearly, if he can't help, there's no point in bringing him along.
                        But it goes farther than that. It's not only whether or not he can
                        help, but whether or not he is needed to make a difference in the
                        score. In other words, can he do either of the following?:

                        1) Save you from getting euchred; or
                        2) Make the difference between 3 or 4 tricks and five.

                        The implication here is that if he makes the difference between 3
                        tricks and four, he's not done anything worthwhile for the score, so
                        why bring him along?

                        Let's look at #1. How can he stop you from getting euchred? Well,
                        in order to get euchred, the opps are almost certainly going to need
                        both bowers. And if they have them, what is your P going to do to
                        help?

                        Now for #2. The most probable way for him to take that 5th trick is
                        with the R over the opps' L. This is fairly unlikely, because the
                        odds he has the R are 5/18, and the odds one of your opps has the L
                        is 10/18, yielding about 15%. But the overall likelihood is even
                        less than that because we have to add the requirement that the R and
                        L fall on the same trick, implying the opps' L must be unprotected.
                        If this scenario DOESN'T hold (which is roughly 85-90% of the time),
                        your P provides little-to-no value.

                        Now I will agree marching for 4 is a longshot here, but marching for
                        2 is an almost equal longshot. In short, if your P has the bowers,
                        you don't need them; if your opps have the bowers, your P can't help
                        you.

                        -- Rob
                      • scolar2
                        ... The key reason to call a loner here is that it is unlikely that partner will be able to assist you. I agree with Rob that the main way partner will be able
                        Message 11 of 18 , Jul 3, 2003
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                          --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bimbert84" <bimbert84@y...>
                          wrote:

                          > > Someone wake me up and tell me why a loner call is a good
                          > > play here.


                          The key reason to call a loner here is that it is unlikely that
                          partner will be able to assist you. I agree with Rob that the main
                          way partner will be able to help you march is by having the R when
                          the L is dropping, but the chance of it is under 15%.

                          There are ways that partner can help avoid a euchre. Your hand is
                          S-AK9 H-A D-A. Suppose LHO has S-LQT C-T9. If the other J is buried
                          and you go alone, your chance of avoiding a euchre is absolute zero.
                          Partner having the ace of clubs will usually win a point. There are
                          other distributions where it will help. Another way for partner to
                          help avoid a euchre is by ruffing a red suit lead with the Q or L
                          before RHO can ruff it with the ten.

                          I disagree with Rob's statement that "in order to get euchred, the
                          opps are almost certainly going to need both bowers". The main way
                          they will beat you without both bowers is when LHO leads a red suit
                          that RHO ruffs low. Now you will be in trouble if you can't draw
                          trump in one round. They merely need to keep leading suits you
                          don't have or ruff your other ace low.

                          Part of my reason for calling a loner is due to my bridge background,
                          where the laws forbid taking advantage of unauthorized information
                          from partner. This means that if you have a close call, you should
                          go opposite what your partner seems to be indicating. Since partner
                          doesn't like his hand, the loner probably won't work.

                          I'm fully aware euchre doesn't have such a law, but keeping it in
                          mind when playing against your boss is probably a good idea!


                          Tom
                        • Ron Brown
                          i played this scenario on gerry s euchre lab 25 times, 3 different ways: 1- going alone/leading trump after taking 1st trick, and the results were: making
                          Message 12 of 18 , Jul 3, 2003
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                            i played this scenario on gerry's euchre lab 25 times, 3 different ways:
                            1- going alone/leading trump after taking 1st trick, and the results were: making point 15 times, making loner 7 times, and getting euchred 3 times.
                            2- alone/leading Ace, results: point 19 times, loner 5 times, euchred once.
                            3- ordering without going alone: point 20 times, marching 4 times and euchred once.
                            going alone both ways resulted in a 1.48 point per hand gain and not going alone in a 1.04 gain.
                            the interesting part of this sampling was that i got 5 tricks more often when going alone than with partner.i think we can all agree that that wouldn't hold true in the long run
                            and please tell me what the differance the score makes, if it's 7-3 us, it just helps close the game out, and if it's 7-3 them it just helps even the score
                            Joseph J Cravero <joeelf@...> wrote:
                            OK, so I am on lunch at a local restaurant. I playing against the
                            cockiest guy on my team at work, and his partner is my boss. My
                            partner is the meekest guy around.

                            In my hand as dealer:
                            Ah, Ad, As, Ks, 9c

                            Everyone passes on the 9s, my partner "vehemently". I pick it up.
                            And with my glance to him, he is pissed. So I call alone and discard
                            9c.

                            Anyhow, Mr. Cocky leads Ac; boss follows Qc; I play 9s for the trick.

                            Now, I say to the onlooker, do I lead trump or what? He says "I've
                            seen the boss' hand, and can't comment". I say "I guess you lead
                            trump on a loner". I lead back Ks. Cocky has none. Boss has both
                            bowers, but does have a heart and a diamond and I get my point.

                            From my perspective, there is no way I could have turned that down:

                            I have no defense against next at first hand, and not unlikely to get
                            caught in a squeeze play on any loner by first hand. Partner could
                            have had 4 10's and offsuit queen for all I knew... Plus, I am
                            always dying for that Missouri loner that goes through...



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                          • bimbert84
                            Hi Tom, ... Certainly this is true, but these scenarios are rare enough for me justify the loner call. ... If they lead a suit you don t have (i.e. clubs), you
                            Message 13 of 18 , Jul 3, 2003
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                              Hi Tom,

                              > Suppose LHO has S-LQT C-T9. If the other J is buried
                              > and you go alone, your chance of avoiding a euchre is
                              > absolute zero. Partner having the ace of clubs will
                              > usually win a point. There are other distributions
                              > where it will help. Another way for partner to
                              > help avoid a euchre is by ruffing a red suit lead
                              > with the Q or L before RHO can ruff it with the ten.

                              Certainly this is true, but these scenarios are rare enough for me
                              justify the loner call.


                              > I disagree with Rob's statement that "in order to get
                              > euchred, the opps are almost certainly going to need
                              > both bowers". The main way they will beat you without
                              > both bowers is when LHO leads a red suit that RHO ruffs
                              > low. Now you will be in trouble if you can't draw trump
                              > in one round. They merely need to keep leading suits you
                              > don't have or ruff your other ace low.

                              If they lead a suit you don't have (i.e. clubs), you can trump in
                              low, and assuming you take the trick, lead trump back. Either you'll
                              take the trick, or flush a bower. And unless they've got the other
                              bower, you'll be left with boss and an off A.

                              I agree there are scenarios that can result in euchres without the
                              opps having both bowers. But the probability of these holdings is
                              low, and is basically what I meant by "almost certainly."

                              -- Rob
                            • scolar2
                              ... you ll ... Hi Rob, The problem is that sooner or later that off A will be trumped low to euchre you if they take their bower and keep leading suits you
                              Message 14 of 18 , Jul 5, 2003
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                                --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bimbert84" <bimbert84@y...>
                                wrote:

                                > > I disagree with Rob's statement that "in order to get
                                > > euchred, the opps are almost certainly going to need
                                > > both bowers". The main way they will beat you without
                                > > both bowers is when LHO leads a red suit that RHO ruffs
                                > > low. Now you will be in trouble if you can't draw trump
                                > > in one round. They merely need to keep leading suits you
                                > > don't have or ruff your other ace low.
                                >
                                > If they lead a suit you don't have (i.e. clubs), you can trump in
                                > low, and assuming you take the trick, lead trump back. Either
                                you'll
                                > take the trick, or flush a bower. And unless they've got the other
                                > bower, you'll be left with boss and an off A.


                                Hi Rob,

                                The problem is that sooner or later that off A will be trumped low
                                to euchre you if they take their bower and keep leading suits you
                                don't have (a second club if RHO has the bower-small trump, a second
                                club or a second of the led suit if LHO has the bower-small trump).
                                Another way of saying this is that they will euchre you as long as
                                the hand with the long trump doesn't have a card in your off A suit.
                                It's under 50%, but it is a substantial chance.

                                I clearly agree with the loner call, but I did want to elaborate the
                                cases where it would fail and where partner could have helped.

                                Tom
                              • bimbert84
                                Tom, ... I understand what you re getting at, I think maybe we just differ in how likely it is to happen. Certainly you can get caught in the crossfire, but
                                Message 15 of 18 , Jul 6, 2003
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                                  Tom,

                                  > The problem is that sooner or later that off A will be trumped
                                  > low to euchre you if they take their bower and keep leading
                                  > suits you don't have (a second club if RHO has the bower-small
                                  > trump, a second club or a second of the led suit if LHO has the
                                  > bower-small trump). Another way of saying this is that they
                                  > will euchre you as long as the hand with the long trump doesn't
                                  > have a card in your off A suit. It's under 50%, but it is a
                                  > substantial chance.

                                  I understand what you're getting at, I think maybe we just differ in
                                  how likely it is to happen. Certainly you can get caught in the
                                  crossfire, but only if they're void in the right suits and have the
                                  trump to take advantage of it.

                                  A clear example is a lead to one of your off aces, trumped by 3rd.
                                  He then leads back the other red suit, and it gets trumped by 1st.
                                  Either bower in either opposing hand will now score the euchre.
                                  Again, it's possible your P could've helped, but not likely: he
                                  would also need to be void in one of the suits lead (requiring two
                                  hands to be void of the 5 cards outstanding in each suit), and have a
                                  higher trump than the opps (who we've already assumed hold 3 of the 4
                                  outstanding trump).


                                  > I clearly agree with the loner call, but I did want to elaborate
                                  > the cases where it would fail and where partner could have helped.

                                  Yep, I'm with you.


                                  -- Rob
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