- Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario through a simulator and post the results:

Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.

Thanks. - Perry,I am in full agreement with you IF the dealer picks it up - PASS.This is what I said:
*If***1st seat orders**, by my calculations you will make a**point about 80% - 83%**. Those are good odds.**Should you settle for one point?**However, this question as Amy has suggested, all depends on what the dealer is likely to do with NO trump or one trump. It's a 35% chance the dealer has only the upcard with 3 unkn trumps and 48% with 1 trump - 83% one or no trump to the dealerI never said Passing was not a better option. However, with your math, it appears you assumed the dealer picks it up**100% of the time**. In that scenario, of course passing is a better option. But that is not reality because the dealer might turn it down!My answer, I was attempting to give Bart the details of his success rate if 1st seat ordered - 80 to 83% for making a point. I said it was not bad odds. However, I am in general agreement that the math indicates passing if the dealer picks up the bower or if 2nd seat orders.Euchre is more than than this and it depends on what is the situation along with what I think the dealer will do that tips the scales one way or the other for me. I am disagreeing with the 50% expectation of a euchre by the simulator. I did make a comment about the simulator assumptions as it appeared to meYou have to consider dealer and his partner and their styles of play and the score to optimize your decision and reduce risk. One must always remember that what players do or should do is a bigger variable in euchre than the card probabilities.My opinion, you over simplified your answer, with the assumption that dealer picks it up every time. What if the dealer passes? What if 1st seat now passes? etc etc. (You will have to extend you equation to factor these in - good luck on that!) There are too many variables to consider and your math falls down!I gave Bart the result with some pretty solid numbers. Your answer to Bart, Perry, it appeared you were not to clear how ordering would fair. You said, "." 80% is not bad odds. You opted for passing and assumed the dealer would pick it up. A good decision if the dealer does pick it up, becomes a whole lot more complex if the dealer also passes. All players do not pick up the bower with just one trump (48% one trump could be the King, no aces two suited, one void)? And half (estimated) may turn it down without any trump (35% in this situation no trump)? This might approach 50% with some players**But if you do order, I"m not sure the odds are so great that you'll make this**`turning down the Jack?`Now what will you do, dealer passes Perry?~Robin**From:**Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...>**To:**EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com**Sent:**Wednesday, July 31, 2013 6:59 PM**Subject:**Re: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulationRobin,Ordering: The simulator and you say ~80% chance of making the point (+1). Which means a 20% chance of score -2 points. Net expectation of this strategy would be (80%)*1 - (20%)*2 = 0.4 points.Passing: You didn't weigh in but the passing strategy according to the simulator gives the following expectationEuchre = 50%They make point = 50%Expectation = (50%)*2 - (50%)*1 = 0.5 points.Passing is the better strategy.And if you are playing someone who always follows the "Turn down a bower lose for an hour" philosophy, passing is an even better strategy.Euchre = 80%They make point 20%Expectation = (80%)*2 - (20%)*1 = 1.4 points.Would you agree with this?More broadly, would you agree that a strategy that has an expectation of 0.4 points over the long term is inferior to one that has a long-term expectation of 0.5 points?Perry, 44PS. At a score of 9-6 I agree that the ordering strategy becomes superior as the point expectation for a winning game needs to be taken into account.On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 4:31 PM, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote:One ES comment indicated at score 9 to 6, and that 1st seat should order to prevent the loner. I agree but not for the usual mindless process of donating. I am ordering more for scoring a point than giving up two (donating) to prevent the loner because other things come into play. I already indicated, scoring a point is +/- 80% and the Fredulator had 79%. Both in agreement (amazing perhaps conincidence) as to scoring a point when 1st seat order up the Jack.Bottom line with this score is - Order up the Jack!~Robin