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A question for simulation

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  • Bart
    Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario through a simulator and post the results: Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and
    Message 1 of 12 , Jan 21, 2013
      Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario through a simulator and post the results:

      Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.

      Thanks.
    • Steven
      ... orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent. ... I dnt use the computer much so I m not sure if this is the right place to reply? but here
      Message 2 of 12 , Jul 23, 2013
        --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote:
        >
        > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario
        through a simulator and post the results:
        >
        > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
        orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.
        >
        > Thanks.
        >
        I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
        to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
        happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
        forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
        than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
        who's picking it up,or what it is.
      • PerryR
        You would be better off not ordering then euchring your opponent when they pick up the Jack. But if you do order, I m not sure the odds are so great that
        Message 3 of 12 , Jul 23, 2013
          You would be better off not ordering then euchring your opponent when they pick up the Jack.

          But if you do order, I"m not sure the odds are so great that you'll make this. Dealer could easily be two suited and neither of those black aces wins a trick.

          Perry, 44

          --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Steven" <sbost5353@...> wrote:
          >
          >
          > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote:
          > >
          > > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario
          > through a simulator and post the results:
          > >
          > > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
          > orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.
          > >
          > > Thanks.
          > >
          > I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
          > to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
          > happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
          > forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
          > than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
          > who's picking it up,or what it is.
          >
        • Steven
          ... reply to perry;yes thers a chance for euchre,but if he turns it down theres no chance for a point ,at least from your hand. I play for a point!
          Message 4 of 12 , Jul 23, 2013
            --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "PerryR" <thejoggler@...> wrote:
            >
            > You would be better off not ordering then euchring your opponent when they pick up the Jack.
            >
            > But if you do order, I"m not sure the odds are so great that you'll make this. Dealer could easily be two suited and neither of those black aces wins a trick.
            >
            > Perry, 44
            >
            > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Steven" <sbost5353@> wrote:
            > >
            > >
            > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote:
            > > >
            > > > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario
            > > through a simulator and post the results:
            > > >
            > > > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
            > > orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.
            > > >
            > > > Thanks.
            > > >
            > > I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
            > > to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
            > > happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
            > > forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
            > > than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
            > > who's picking it up,or what it is.
            > >
            >
            reply to perry;yes thers a chance for euchre,but if he turns it down theres no chance for a point ,at least from your hand. I play for a point!
          • Perry Romanowski
            Well, it s a matter of mathematics. If you are playing a good player they will follow the old adage turn down a bower, lose for an hour . This means they will
            Message 5 of 12 , Jul 23, 2013
              Well, it's a matter of mathematics.

              If you are playing a good player they will follow the old adage "turn down a bower, lose for an hour". This means they will never turn down a bower so the chances of it getting back to you and not being able to order is essentially zero.  And it also means if they order you stand to gain 2 points instead of just 1.  2 is better than 1 right?

              Even if you are not playing good players and they turn down a bower, you employ the 'next' strategy and order up hearts.
              Euchre is a partnership game and sometimes you need to consider beyond your own hand and imagine what your partner's hand looks like. Odds are good that your partner has the other red jack and has a good heart hand.  

              Ordering a Jack to your opponent sounds like a losing strategy to me.  If I get Fred's simulator working I'll do a test and report back the results. 


              On Tue, Jul 23, 2013 at 9:00 AM, Steven <sbost5353@...> wrote:

              --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "PerryR" <thejoggler@...> wrote:
              >
              > You would be better off not ordering then euchring your opponent when they pick up the Jack.
              >
              > But if you do order, I"m not sure the odds are so great that you'll make this. Dealer could easily be two suited and neither of those black aces wins a trick.
              >
              > Perry, 44>

               
              reply to perry;yes thers a chance for euchre,but if he turns it down theres no chance for a point ,at least from your hand. I play for a point!

            • Daniel Ambrose
              Except when your opponent has 2 to win, I would call it up. There is a chance that they would have a loner and gain 4 points. Plus you don t have good hand to
              Message 6 of 12 , Jul 23, 2013
                Except when your opponent has 2 to win, I would call it up. There is a chance that they would have a loner and gain 4 points. Plus you don't have good hand to call up if they pass and not much of an helping hand out your partner except for the two aces. But I would doubt that your partner would be able to call up anything since you opponent on you left does not have any diamonds (or he would of called it up) and the dealer did not have any diamonds( or he would called it up and maybe go alone), so it would look like that your partners have a good hand in black and odds are your partner is four suited and never call something if everyone passed. It would not be called eurche if you don't get euchred sometimes.  A simulator or point system might tell you one thing but strategy and gamesmanship sometimes will win matches.


                From: Steven <sbost5353@...>
                To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
                Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2013 9:00 AM
                Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulation

                 


                --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "PerryR" <thejoggler@...> wrote:
                >
                > You would be better off not ordering then euchring your opponent when they pick up the Jack.
                >
                > But if you do order, I"m not sure the odds are so great that you'll make this. Dealer could easily be two suited and neither of those black aces wins a trick.
                >
                > Perry, 44
                >
                > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Steven" <sbost5353@> wrote:
                > >
                > >
                > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote:
                > > >
                > > > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario
                > > through a simulator and post the results:
                > > >
                > > > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
                > > orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.
                > > >
                > > > Thanks.
                > > >
                > > I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
                > > to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
                > > happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
                > > forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
                > > than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
                > > who's picking it up,or what it is.
                > >
                >
                reply to perry;yes thers a chance for euchre,but if he turns it down theres no chance for a point ,at least from your hand. I play for a point!



              • Aimeecakes
                If the dealer is aggressive, pass. From my Android phone on T-Mobile. The first nationwide 4G network. ... Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for
                Message 7 of 12 , Jul 23, 2013
                  If the dealer is aggressive, pass.


                  From my Android phone on T-Mobile. The first nationwide 4G network.


                  -------- Original message --------
                  Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulation
                  From: PerryR <thejoggler@...>
                  To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
                  CC:


                   

                  You would be better off not ordering then euchring your opponent when they pick up the Jack.

                  But if you do order, I"m not sure the odds are so great that you'll make this. Dealer could easily be two suited and neither of those black aces wins a trick.

                  Perry, 44

                  --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Steven" <sbost5353@...> wrote:
                  >
                  >
                  > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote:
                  > >
                  > > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario
                  > through a simulator and post the results:
                  > >
                  > > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
                  > orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.
                  > >
                  > > Thanks.
                  > >
                  > I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
                  > to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
                  > happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
                  > forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
                  > than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
                  > who's picking it up,or what it is.
                  >

                • Fred Benjamin
                  I m rusty but... assuming the score is 0 - 0: If 1st seat orders it will score net 185 pts over 500 hands.  (105 euchres and 395 single pts.) If 1st seat
                  Message 8 of 12 , Jul 23, 2013
                    I'm rusty but... assuming the score is 0 - 0:

                    If 1st seat orders it will score net 185 pts over 500 hands.  (105 euchres and 395 single pts.)

                    If 1st seat passes the first round it will net 250 points over 500 hands.  The dealer got euchred 251 times. 

                    Note:  The simulator will not necessarily have the dealer pick up the bower every time.  (Perry's 'turn a bower, lose for an hour which is a good rule of thumb)  I don't recall the algorithm, but I am pretty sure the dealer would pass with no trump and no off aces ... or with black bowers.

                    Fred



                    From: Steven <sbost5353@...>
                    To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
                    Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2013 8:23 AM
                    Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulation

                     

                    --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote:
                    >
                    > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario
                    through a simulator and post the results:
                    >
                    > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
                    orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.
                    >
                    > Thanks.
                    >
                    I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
                    to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
                    happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
                    forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
                    than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
                    who's picking it up,or what it is.



                  • robin neill
                    Bart,   Did you get your answer to the question below?  So let s clarify and summarize:   You don t need a simulator, they are confusing and you don t know
                    Message 9 of 12 , Jul 29, 2013
                      Bart,
                       
                      Did you get your answer to the question below?  So let's clarify and summarize:
                       
                      You don't need a simulator, they are confusing and you don't know how they are programmed. With the points Fred posted, it is obviou that the simulator turns down a bower without a trump in the dealer's hand. Simulators do not tell you why, and the strategy you should be using - black box.
                       
                      Here are your options as I see it:
                       
                      If 1st seat orders, by my calculations you will make a point about 80% - 85%. Those are good odds. Reason is that there are 3 unkn trumps and 1st seat must lead trump to the first trick, only.  The chance that the dealer will have one trump is ~48% of the time (plus the upcard). He has the upcard and two trumps 16% of the time, basically 1 in 7 - you will be euchred everytime he has this combination or three trumps. You may also be euchred when the dealer has upcard plus 1 and his partner has two trumps but that is less than ~8% of the time as the opponents have to had the correct combinations and voids to your black aces - probably half of this, say 4% of the time. Thus you have great odds of scoring a point with the hand below but shit does happen in the short run. Over many hands, expect this result.
                       
                      Should you settle for one point?  However, this question as Amy has suggested, all depends on what the dealer is likely to do with NO trump or one trump. It's a 35% chance the dealer has only the upcard with 3 unkn trumps and 48% with 1 trump - 83% one or no trump to the dealer. This is where the tire meets the road and you will euchre the dealer with these combinations pretty much regardless of what his partner has if you lead trump to the first trick.
                       
                      Again if the dealer has two trumps plus the upcard (16% of the time, ~1 in 7 hands) he will make his point, and may even may be going alone. It's key what the dealer is likely to do and the score?  If you are at 9 and opponent 7/6, you have to order. If you are at 9 and opponents 8, pass, etc. Do you want 1 point or go for a euchre? Many really good players will pick up that right bower without any other trump in their hand. It's the weak players that have to have two trumps or one trump and an ace.
                       
                      You have two black aces, and if the dealer turns it down, you can make next unless you know the "sand baggers" are to your right and left. You have two probable tricks with the black aces. Your partner needs to win a trick. You should not Pass if the dealer turns it down, it's a losers games.
                       
                      So there you go!
                       
                      ~Robin
                       
                       
                       
                      "Bart" wrote:

                      Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
                      orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.

                      Thanks.

                      I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
                      to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
                      happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
                      forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
                      than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
                      who's picking it up,or what it is.

                       
                       

                      From: Steven <sbost5353@...>
                      To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
                      Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2013 9:23 AM
                      Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulation
                       

                      --- In mailto:EuchreScience%40yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote:
                      >
                      > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario
                      through a simulator and post the results:
                      >
                      > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
                      orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.
                      >
                      > Thanks.
                      >
                      I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
                      to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
                      happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
                      forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
                      than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
                      who's picking it up,or what it is.

                    • robin neill
                      One ES comment indicated at score 9 to 6, and that 1st seat should order to prevent the loner. I agree but not for the usual mindless process of donating. I
                      Message 10 of 12 , Jul 31, 2013
                        One ES comment indicated at score 9 to 6, and that 1st seat should order to prevent the loner. I agree but not for the usual mindless process of donating. I am ordering more for scoring a point than giving up two (donating) to prevent the loner because other things come into play. I already indicated, scoring a point is +/- 80% and the Fredulator had 79%. Both in agreement (amazing perhaps conincidence) as to scoring a point when 1st seat order up the Jack. 
                         
                        Now for the odds of the dealer making a loner if I did not donate.  Suppose at the score 9 to 6 (1st seat)  he/she did not donate and the dealer went alone. What would his success rate be? The anwser - not a real threat and here is why. With three trumps + 2 side aces, if 1st seat must leads either off suit ace forcing the dealer has to trump. With one trump gone, the only way he can make a loner is to have the Jack + the other two unkn trump (all three unkn trumps). Additionally, he still has to have a winning off suit card and it must be a heart. The probability of this happening is less than one percent. You do not have to worry about donating as there are other threats lurking in the dark! 
                         
                        There is a bigger risk if 1st seat passes, and the dealer also passes. 2nd seat may have a loner in black. 1st seat would now be forced to call something to prevent a loner on 2nd round. Suppose you did pass and the dealer's side scored but not a loner. It is your deal now and what is the chance of turning up snake eyes? Too many what ifs out of control. 
                         
                        Bottom line with this score is - Order up the Jack!
                         
                        ~Robin 

                        From: robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...>
                        To: "EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com" <EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com>
                        Sent: Tuesday, July 30, 2013 12:49 AM
                        Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulation
                         
                        Bart,
                         
                        Did you get your answer to the question below?  So let's clarify and summarize:
                         
                        You don't need a simulator, they are confusing and you don't know how they are programmed. With the points Fred posted, it is obviou that the simulator turns down a bower without a trump in the dealer's hand. Simulators do not tell you why, and the strategy you should be using - black box.
                         
                        Here are your options as I see it:
                         
                        If 1st seat orders, by my calculations you will make a point about 80% - 85%. Those are good odds. Reason is that there are 3 unkn trumps and 1st seat must lead trump to the first trick, only.  The chance that the dealer will have one trump is ~48% of the time (plus the upcard). He has the upcard and two trumps 16% of the time, basically 1 in 7 - you will be euchred everytime he has this combination or three trumps. You may also be euchred when the dealer has upcard plus 1 and his partner has two trumps but that is less than ~8% of the time as the opponents have to had the correct combinations and voids to your black aces - probably half of this, say 4% of the time. Thus you have great odds of scoring a point with the hand below but shit does happen in the short run. Over many hands, expect this result.
                         
                        Should you settle for one point?  However, this question as Amy has suggested, all depends on what the dealer is likely to do with NO trump or one trump. It's a 35% chance the dealer has only the upcard with 3 unkn trumps and 48% with 1 trump - 83% one or no trump to the dealer. This is where the tire meets the road and you will euchre the dealer with these combinations pretty much regardless of what his partner has if you lead trump to the first trick.
                         
                        Again if the dealer has two trumps plus the upcard (16% of the time, ~1 in 7 hands) he will make his point, and may even may be going alone. It's key what the dealer is likely to do and the score?  If you are at 9 and opponent 7/6, you have to order. If you are at 9 and opponents 8, pass, etc. Do you want 1 point or go for a euchre? Many really good players will pick up that right bower without any other trump in their hand. It's the weak players that have to have two trumps or one trump and an ace.
                         
                        You have two black aces, and if the dealer turns it down, you can make next unless you know the "sand baggers" are to your right and left. You have two probable tricks with the black aces. Your partner needs to win a trick. You should not Pass if the dealer turns it down, it's a losers games.
                         
                        So there you go!
                         
                        ~Robin
                         
                         
                         
                        "Bart" wrote:

                        Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and
                        orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent.

                        Thanks.

                        I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place
                        to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what
                        happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't
                        forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more
                        than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter
                        who's picking it up,or what it is.

                         
                         

                        From: Steven <sbost5353@...>
                        To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
                        Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2013 9:23 AM
                        Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulation
                         
                        --- In mailto:EuchreScience%40yahoogroups.com, "Bart" wrote: > > Would someone (Fred, you there?) please run the following scenario through a simulator and post the results: > > Player in first chair has 9-10-Q of diamonds and both black aces, and orders up the jack of diamonds to his right-hand opponent. > > Thanks. > I dnt use the computer much so I'm not sure if this is the right place to reply? but here 's my take on your hand. lead the queen,see what happens. you have 2 trump,and at least one good ace,maybe two? don't forget your partner!even if they lead trump back at you , you will more than likely get the last three tricks. any three is trump, no matter who's picking it up,or what it is.
                      • Perry Romanowski
                        Robin, Ordering: The simulator and you say ~80% chance of making the point (+1). Which means a 20% chance of score -2 points. Net expectation of this strategy
                        Message 11 of 12 , Jul 31, 2013
                          Robin,

                          Ordering:  The simulator and you say ~80% chance of making the point (+1).  Which means a 20% chance of score -2 points. Net expectation of this strategy would be (80%)*1 - (20%)*2 = 0.4 points.

                          Passing:  You didn't weigh in but the passing strategy according to the simulator gives the following expectation
                          Euchre = 50%
                          They make point = 50%
                          Expectation = (50%)*2 - (50%)*1 = 0.5 points.  

                          Passing is the better strategy.

                          And if you are playing someone who always follows the "Turn down a bower lose for an hour" philosophy, passing is an even better strategy.

                          Euchre = 80%
                          They make point 20%
                          Expectation = (80%)*2 - (20%)*1 = 1.4 points.

                          Would you agree with this?

                          More broadly, would you agree that a strategy that has an expectation of 0.4 points over the long term is inferior to one that has a long-term expectation of 0.5 points?

                          Perry, 44

                          PS.  At a score of 9-6 I agree that the ordering strategy becomes superior as the point expectation for a winning game needs to be taken into account.

                          On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 4:31 PM, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote:
                           

                          One ES comment indicated at score 9 to 6, and that 1st seat should order to prevent the loner. I agree but not for the usual mindless process of donating. I am ordering more for scoring a point than giving up two (donating) to prevent the loner because other things come into play. I already indicated, scoring a point is +/- 80% and the Fredulator had 79%. Both in agreement (amazing perhaps conincidence) as to scoring a point when 1st seat order up the Jack. 
                           
                          Bottom line with this score is - Order up the Jack!
                           
                          ~Robin 
                        • robin neill
                          Perry,   I am in full agreement with you IF the dealer picks it up - PASS.    This is what I said:   If 1st seat orders, by my calculations you will make a
                          Message 12 of 12 , Aug 1, 2013
                            Perry,
                             
                            I am in full agreement with you IF the dealer picks it up - PASS. 
                             
                            This is what I said:
                             
                            If 1st seat orders, by my calculations you will make a point about 80% - 83%. Those are good odds.
                             
                            Should you settle for one point?  However, this question as Amy has suggested, all depends on what the dealer is likely to do with NO trump or one trump. It's a 35% chance the dealer has only the upcard with 3 unkn trumps and 48% with 1 trump - 83% one or no trump to the dealer
                             
                            I never said Passing was not a better option. However, with your math, it appears you assumed the dealer picks it up 100% of the time. In that scenario, of course passing is a better option. But that is not reality because the dealer might turn it down!
                             
                            My answer, I was attempting to give Bart the details of his success rate if 1st seat ordered - 80 to 83% for making a point.  I said it was not bad odds. However, I am in general agreement that the math indicates passing if the dealer picks up the bower or if 2nd seat orders.
                             
                            Euchre is more than than this and it depends on what is the situation along with what I think the dealer will do that tips the scales one way or the other for me. I am disagreeing with the 50% expectation of a euchre by the simulator. I did make a comment about the simulator assumptions as it appeared to me
                             
                            You have to consider dealer and his partner and their styles of play and the score to optimize your decision and reduce risk. One must always remember that what players do or should do is a bigger variable in euchre than the card probabilities. 
                             
                            My opinion, you over simplified your answer, with the assumption that dealer picks it up every time. What if the dealer passes?  What if 1st seat now passes? etc etc. (You will have to extend you equation to factor these in - good luck on that!) There are too many variables to consider and your math falls down!
                             
                            I gave Bart the result with some pretty solid numbers. Your answer to Bart, Perry, it appeared you were not to clear how ordering would fair. You said, "But if you do order, I"m not sure the odds are so great that you'll make this."  80% is not bad odds. You opted for passing and assumed the dealer would pick it up. A good decision if the dealer does pick it up, becomes a whole lot more complex if the dealer also passes. All players do not pick up the bower with just one trump (48% one trump could be the King, no aces two suited, one void)? And half (estimated) may turn it down without any trump (35% in this situation no trump)? This might approach 50% with some players turning down the Jack?
                             
                            Now what will you do, dealer passes Perry?  
                             
                            ~Robin
                             
                             
                             
                             

                            From: Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...>
                            To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
                            Sent: Wednesday, July 31, 2013 6:59 PM
                            Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: A question for simulation
                             
                            Robin,

                            Ordering:  The simulator and you say ~80% chance of making the point (+1).  Which means a 20% chance of score -2 points. Net expectation of this strategy would be (80%)*1 - (20%)*2 = 0.4 points.

                            Passing:  You didn't weigh in but the passing strategy according to the simulator gives the following expectation
                            Euchre = 50%
                            They make point = 50%
                            Expectation = (50%)*2 - (50%)*1 = 0.5 points.  

                            Passing is the better strategy.

                            And if you are playing someone who always follows the "Turn down a bower lose for an hour" philosophy, passing is an even better strategy.

                            Euchre = 80%
                            They make point 20%
                            Expectation = (80%)*2 - (20%)*1 = 1.4 points.

                            Would you agree with this?

                            More broadly, would you agree that a strategy that has an expectation of 0.4 points over the long term is inferior to one that has a long-term expectation of 0.5 points?

                            Perry, 44

                            PS.  At a score of 9-6 I agree that the ordering strategy becomes superior as the point expectation for a winning game needs to be taken into account.

                            On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 4:31 PM, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote:
                             
                            One ES comment indicated at score 9 to 6, and that 1st seat should order to prevent the loner. I agree but not for the usual mindless process of donating. I am ordering more for scoring a point than giving up two (donating) to prevent the loner because other things come into play. I already indicated, scoring a point is +/- 80% and the Fredulator had 79%. Both in agreement (amazing perhaps conincidence) as to scoring a point when 1st seat order up the Jack. 
                             
                            Bottom line with this score is - Order up the Jack!
                             
                            ~Robin 
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