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Re: [EuchreScience] Re: LOANER

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  • robin neill
    Perry,   Which do you prefer?   DEALT  or   DEALED SPELT  or   SPELLED FELT   or    FEELED   From: Perry Romanowski To:
    Message 1 of 131 , Mar 1, 2012
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      Perry,
       
      Which do you prefer?
       
      DEALT  or   DEALED
      SPELT  or   SPELLED
      FELT   or    FEELED
       

      From: Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...>
      To: "EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com" <EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 11:19 PM
      Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: LOANER

       
      Isn't it 'spelled'?

      Sent from my iPhone

      On Feb 28, 2012, at 10:35 PM, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote:

       
      You only wish, as it would round out the conversation!  We do wish him well!

      From: Perry Romanowski <thejoggler@...>
      To: "EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com" <EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 10:31 PM
      Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: Situation #2

       
      Natty Bumpo has entered the building

      Sent from my iPhone

      On Feb 28, 2012, at 10:18 PM, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote:

       
      In euchre loaner is spelt LONER! (NO LOANER - AS IN A BANK LOAN)






    • c long
      Thanks Robin. That was cool of you to spend the time and share it. I wouldn t be surprised if spades was the better call. I just feel more comfortable playing
      Message 131 of 131 , Mar 3, 2012
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        Thanks Robin. That was cool of you to spend the time and share it. I wouldn't be surprised if spades was the better call. I just feel more comfortable playing the club call.

        --- On Sat, 3/3/12, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote:

        From: robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...>
        Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: Situation #2
        To: "EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com" <EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com>
        Date: Saturday, March 3, 2012, 11:58 AM

         

        Be that as you may, I re-dealt setting up 2nd seat with JS AC AD 9D 9H, 2nd round, eldest passes, with KH down. I had 2nd seat call clubs. Eldest leading diamonds unless eldest had three trumps which he led the middle one. If void in diamonds, then a spade was led. I avoided leading hearts to keep the dealer out of play if possible.  2nd seat never lead trump. The location of the JC is significant to success here, 44% buried or with the dealer and having void in spades to trump. Who has the AH is also important and is 2:1 with the opponent.End result, six (6) euchres - 76% making the point, occasionally a sweep (3 hands). Clubs is a good call. 
         
        Then I played spades is trump with the same leading a diamond unless eldest had three trumps (which I believe to be the best approach). If void in diamonds, eldest led clubs. If the AD or AC won the first trick then JS was led.  The end result after 25 hands was five (5) euchres with spades trump 80% making a point, 2 sweeps. Spades is also a good call, having Aces in clubs and diamonds to win tricks then leading the JS to pick up opponent's singleton trump allowed winning the odd trick.  
         
        I see no need to continue this exercise. I doubt a statistically significant difference between the two.  To a significance one could play 100 hands in sets of 10 each, head to head, then do a Student's t test.
         
        Having the eldest hand crossing suit (green - spades/clubs) gives a good comparison for situation #2. A spin off this would be to have eldest with the JS, AC, AD, 9D, 9H and pass. What does 2nd seat do? If pass what does 3rd seat do?
         
        ~Robin

        From: c long <queen10nine_48881@...>
        To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Saturday, March 3, 2012 12:17 AM
        Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: Situation #2
         
        I also read it wrong. My posts were in the thinking of first seat. I didn't catch that and in second seat I would call clubs for sure weather I was down  5 to 3 or ahead 3 to 5, score would not have a factor. I would also like the fact that the size of the red card turned down was a king. I would not call spades here and I would not pass. I am the one that F'd this all up. I was wondering why Rider would say to call clubs in first seat with this hand.  Sorry everyone, my bad. Well now you know what Ide do in first seat too. I think it is me Robin is talking about as to leading people in the wrong direction this time.

        --- On Sat, 3/3/12, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote:

        From: robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...>
        Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Re: Situation #2
        To: "EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com" <EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com>
        Date: Saturday, March 3, 2012, 12:01 AM

         
        You are correct Mushkie, my bad. Thanks for catching the error. Not sure which would be favored, clubs vsr spades from the 2nd seat, (but crossing suit is the correct call and you should not pass). I suspect, close in results. I would favor spades. If spades is called, 2nd seat has to wait until Ac or Ad wins a trick or the dealer leads to his Js. I will work on it and and post when done.   
         
         
        From: Mushkie <bookcasedust@...>
        To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Friday, March 2, 2012 10:31 PM
        Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: Situation #2
         
        Did Situation #2 evolve into some different while I was nodding off? Your input considers the hand Js, Ac, A9d, 9h as in 1st seat but it was stated in the original post by rider as being in 2nd seat. And also the hand included a A9d doubleton, not a AKd doubleton. It seems each of your arguments are about different situations. 

        In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Rider" <iknowurider@> wrote:
         
        STD. Score is 5-3 in your team's favor.
        You hold JS, AC, A9D, 9H sitting in the second chair. It is passed to you a second time. What do you do?
        (Then Rider posted later it was Kh turned down.)
        --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, robin neill <rhyme_n_reason47@...> wrote: > > This is supposedly Euchre Science but I am witnessing a lot of shooting from the hip with NO support hands to validate statements. Rider said referring situation #2 (Eldest holds AD KD JS AC 9H (KH turned down) that he would cross the creek and going green with Clubs as trump. His strategy would be to not lead clubs (you can read the quote below). I thought and suggested eldest should 'pass' because you can stop any loner and have a decent shot at a euchre or the bid going to 3rd seat if 2nd passes where you can then play any suit. >   > I also stated if you did go black, spades was just as good a call as clubs, and you had to lead the JS.  I decided to test this situation. With six known cards, I randomly dealt (in 1s) to the stock (KH down) three cards, 5 cards to 2nd, 3rd and the dealer. I had to pull out 15 hands that was sufficient to make H's trump. Then played 75 hands, calling clubs, leading the AD to the 1st trick (not leading clubs). I didn't lead Hs as this would give the dealer a big advantage for trumping the first trick. I observed 50.6% (38) being euchred.   >   > I then with the same hands, head to head, had spades trump but always led the JS to the first trick, this was followed with AD to the 2nd trick except with 3rd seat was void in trump and 2nd seat had a trump, then I led the KD first. For the 75 hands, I had  32%  (24) euchres. You turned out better than I thought it would (I thought about 40% euchres, still could be with small sample of 75) However, with 75 hands, the margin of error can be significant, but hardly enough to swing this the other way to even the odds of making clubs equal to spades. So why, what is behind the better choice?  Lead the JS, strips trump from the opponents. Leading the AD next.  Even if the opponent is void, now has to lead either clubs or hearts. Leading black would be the choice, and eldest has the AC. Now eldest can lead KD on the 4th trick and an opponent has to have a third trump to catch it. And 3rd seat, just may have two spades a significant number of hands. >   > I am not picking on you but there are a lot of ES that might actually play by your suggestions, and it would be incorrect. My beef with you Rider, you should stop shooting from the hip. This is not the only post where you are plain wrong. I am not wasting my time going through them but need to set the record straight on this one. You are correct about 2/3 of the time, that is not good enough so reader beware of inaccurate and false strategies as you are shooting from the hip, big time. Put some science or hands behind what you say to be credible.  >   > ~Robin  _________________________________________  >   > Rider said:  "So, based on the score of us at 5 to 3 and assuming that eldest is not a bagger and generally only orders when they have a good hand, I would order. In this case I opt for the reverse next call, odds are better than calling next. Trick is which green suit. > > I would order clubs, gives you 2 trump and voids out a suit. Also, be aware that odds are that your partner dealer has some green cards (hoping you picked the green they have the most of), and is light in hearts (turned down), but potentially has some diamonds (next)." >   >   >   >   > > From: Rider iknowurider@... > To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com > Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 1:31 AM > Subject: RE: [EuchreScience] Re: Situation #2 > > >   >   >   > From:EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com [mailto:EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Illinifan95 > Sent: Friday, February 24, 2012 16:13 > To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: Situation #2 >   >   > Rider, > > Nice situation to discuss. I will break up my response into 2 sections, whether to order it or not, and if it is ordered, what you should do to play it out so you get a point or the set. > > Do not order if... > 1. The score shows you are behind, or if the opponent has 8 eights. > 2. Eldest shows a tendancy to order next. If they do not order, then they are either bagging, or have a greener hand. > Rider:  Agree with #1.  With the score at 5-3 in your favor, you want to press your advantage, especially on your deal.  The worst that happens is that you wind up playing a short game at 5-5.  And you also prevent the occasional next loner from the 3rd chair.  You have points to give, and if you make it, you’re in nice shape up 6-3. > > > So, based on the score of us at 5 to 3 and assuming that eldest is not a bagger and generally only orders when they have a good hand, I would order. In this case I opt for the reverse next call, odds are better than calling next. Trick is which green suit. > > I would order clubs, gives you 2 trump and voids out a suit. Also, be aware that odds are that your partner dealer has some green cards (hoping you picked the green they have the most of), and is light in hearts (turned down), but potentially has some diamonds (next). > Rider:  I agree.  Better to have LA and leave 5 missing than hold the R and leave 6.  I’m working my way thru the responses, so perhaps I’ll see this later, but I was expecting someone to make the case for calling spades because that would give you two Aces with which to get into your hand and then lead the R and the other Ace.  But absent a convincing argument for this call, I feel pretty good that clubs offers two tricks, and if your P turns up with the R or it’s buried, you could well have three.  The problem with this hand, of course, is that you can’t lead trump. > The thing about having a bagger on your right with a hand like this is that you follow his play; that’s to your advantage.  >   > > > So 2nd ordered, and you at eldest have to lead. Well, what I would do is lead next in this case spades (higher the better). You are hoping that 2nd will burn a trump. > Rider:  Yes â€" I really like to squeeze 2nd chair calls with next, just as if it’s a loner call.  And I like to play high, forcing them to act instead of letting it go thru.  My primary goal is to lead something I think my P can trump/overtrump so not do we scoop a trump they were counting on for a point, my P gets to use his before it gets pulled. > > If you are 2nd, if you trump the spade lead - good chance you will be set. Trust the second hand low, and void your heart. > Rider:  Yep â€" I only trump the Ace here, and then punt the heart.  That way, not only does my P get a shot at taking my loser, but I save my Ace for the end game where it’s more likely to be good. > > > If your partner (dealer) does not take it, you may be screwed, but hope in your partner for the next one. > > Let's assume that eldest took it. Eldest should lead spades again. If none, they should lead diamonds if they got it. Why? Second just threw off a heart - chances are he is void and will trump it. Note: would love to hear from the group on this as a lead. > Rider:  Again, agreed.  Keep banging away at next with the caller getting squeezed.  The worst that happens is that the lead pulls trump from the other three and what you’re holding gets promoted. >   > > > Bottom line is that there is a 50/50 shot of making it and a hand like this if ordered will require a lot of finesse as to which cards are played and when. If both partnerships play by the 10 commandments, and watch what is played it is going to come down to luck of the distribution of the cards dealt. That said, the key is what is the score, if you can afford to be set, then go for it, if not pass and fight another day. > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Mushkie" bookcasedust@ wrote: > > > > > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "Rider" <iknowurider@> wrote: > > > > > > STD. Score is 5-3 in your team's favor. > > > > > > > > > > > > You hold JS, AC, A9D, 9H sitting in the second chair. It is passed to > > you a > > > second time. What do you do? > > > > > > > I could outsmart myself and make it and get euchred 50% of the time,or > > more, but I'd Pass thinking my partner can decide for himself which > > black suit is best for him. > > > > > > Illini said:  Rider:  I agree.  Better to have LA and leave 5 missing than hold the R and leave 6.  I’m working my way thru the responses, so perhaps I’ll see this later, but I was expecting someone to make the case for calling spades because that would give you two Aces with which to get into your hand and then lead the R and the other Ace.  But absent a convincing argument for this call, I feel pretty good that clubs offers two tricks, and if your P turns up with the R or it’s buried, you could well have three.  The problem with this hand, of course, is that you can’t lead trump. > The thing about having a bagger on your right with a hand like this is that you follow his play; that’s to your advantage >
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