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Re: [EuchreScience] Leading to your partner at 9-9

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  • Fred Benjamin
    ~S Aside:  Not possible to accurately calculate % probabilities of card/suit distributions amongst the hands.  The bidding is an indicator of this abnormal
    Message 1 of 38 , Jun 2, 2011
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      ~S

      Aside:  Not possible to accurately calculate % probabilities of card/suit distributions amongst the hands.  The bidding is an indicator of this abnormal skewing. 

      From: jjewels212 <julisinchicago2@...>
      To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Sunday, May 29, 2011 5:53 PM
      Subject: [EuchreScience] Leading to your partner at 9-9

       
      I was playing in Pogo with one of my most favorite partners, one of the best euchre players I know. It was his deal at 9-9. Unfortunately, I don't recall all the cards.

      He picked up the jack of hearts. I held 2 clubs, K 9 diamonds, and Jd. I trumped the spade lead. Partner threw off a diamond. Out of habit, I led a club because I never lead the suit my partner throws off. I typically assume he discarded from a doubleton. If I lead the other suit, I will generally hit his void.

      My partner got set, but a diamond lead would have made the point. My p said, at 9-9, I should have led the diamond after he threw off. He said it's best to assume he picked up very thin and that he would discard his singleton on the first trick. If he discards from a doubleton, he reasoned, my lead wouldn't make any difference because he would have 3 trumps and should be able to make a point no matter what I led.

      Does his reasoning make sense to you? YES  As a general rule, do you think it is best to lead the suit your partner throws off when the score is 9-9?   YES



    • Fred Benjamin
      ________________________________ From: Mushkie To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, June 9, 2011 5:38 PM Subject:
      Message 38 of 38 , Jun 9, 2011
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        From: Mushkie <bookcasedust@...>
        To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Thursday, June 9, 2011 5:38 PM
        Subject: [EuchreScience] Re: Leading to your partner at 9-9

        >
        ________________________________
        > From: Adam Brussow adam@...
        > To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        > Cc: Fred Benjamin fastfredy0@...
        > Sent: Tuesday, June 7, 2011 2:59 PM
        > Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Leading to your partner at 9-9
        >
        >
        >  
        > What are the chances of the 1st seat having the Ace of spades?
        >
        > Fred - are you saying that probabilities cannot be calculated? Why
        > not? I am saying the probabilities cannot be precisely/correctly calculated using combination and permutations which is Robster's method.  Note the modifiers 'precisely/correctly'.
        I am saying you cannot precisely calculate the probability (odds) of a player having  a card using combinations and permutations after a bid has been made because that method does not account for the information contained in the bid.  Example:   If I order up the 10S from the 1st seat and go alone the odds of me having the A of spades is higher after I bid than before I bid from the view point of any other observer.

        But,

        such an order was not made by either of the 3 seats who had the option  therefore this particular argument cannot possibly be relevant to the situation in question.  :-/  My example above was to illustrate a point and did not directly pertain to the original question.  MY POINT:  ALMOST ANY BID SKEWS THE ODDS OF THE BIDDER'S HAND HAVING CERTAIN CARDS.

        And surely, with a good mathematician and enough effort a precise acceptable margin of error, to allow for bid bias and dealer pick up or turn down could be worked out. Also, IMO a bid bias margin of error for the situation being challenged would be almost insignificant to the whole picture.   
        Probably true, but you cannot use combination sand permutations to figure it out the odds mathematically.  IMO you could mathematically make 1,000s of observations of a particular scenario, create an average, determine a standard deviation and come up with the 'odds' and the 'margin of error' ... but the is NOT WHAT the ROBSTER does and it is an impractical solution.                        
        This is ridiculous, but I guess you could make 2 observations for example and says the odds are 50% give or take 49% .. an accurate statement but what good is it?

        > Your response does not make sense to me. How can one make good logical decisions using incorrectly calculated odds?  You can't.   Robby bases his odds on mathematics that ignore the bias  of bidding. 
        >
        > Am I missing something here?  If I am still unclear, perhaps Pimp can explain it. 
        >
        > Adam
        >
        > On 6/7/2011 3:46 PM, Fred Benjamin wrote:
        >  
        > >     I have no problem with your ability to do combination and permutation calculations.  You lack the needed, logical thinking  to answer these questions ... and that ain't happening.
        > >
        > >
        > >     I am playing with my 'balloons' and you are irritating me with nonsense.  
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >~S
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >________________________________
        > >From: robin neill rhyme_n_reason47@...
        > >To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        > >Sent: Monday, June 6, 2011 2:59 PM
        > >Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Leading to your partner at 9-9
        > >
        > >
        > > 
        > >FRED:  Still waiting on your reply on probability???  Check out my comment in blue below
        on your 27.8%.
        > > 
        > >Seriously, you need some 9th grade math how to calculate a probability Fred. And it throws a dark shadow on you tables and Fredulator. Get someone else who knows something to do probability (& math) to check out your statements below.
        > > 
        > > 
        > > 
        > >PIMP'd:  Waiting on your reply to my example given?  Do you have questions, I will step you through it, spoon feed you.
        > >To the other comment. Did you not read the entire email where I discuss "expected value?  Expected value (Probability) does NOT mean the event is guaranteed to occur. Only the chance that it may occur. It was Mr. Fredulator who said probability can't be calculated in euchre?  
        > > 
        > >Aside:  Not possible to accurately calculate % probabilities
        of card/suit distributions..., said he (Fred).
        > > 
        > >So Pimp'd, lets apply his statement to Poker (another card game) that you are familiar with. Do you or do you not see the probabilities change with each card dealt in Poker (Texas Hold em for example)?  
        > > 
        > > 
        > >Look at Fred's email below. Makes me wonder why you (Pimp'd) did go over his email and calculation before shooting off your mouth. Obviously, you too either don't know or didn't read the post??
        > > 
        > >~Robin  
        > > 
        > >_________________________________
        > > 
        > >Fred said,   I'll make it easy by way of illustration.
        > > 
        > >2nd seat see all the cards dealt out.  2nd seat sees the 10S as the up card.  2nd seat sees he has 0
        spades.  2nd seat knows the chances of 1st seat having the A of Spades is (24 - 6) = 18 unknown cards and 1st seat has 5 cards .... 5 chances in 18 or 27.8%.  [Wow â€" Bozzo the Clown doing Math. The chances of 1st seat having the Ace of Spades with five cards dealt is 27.8%. Wrong calculation Fred - not how you do probability or combinatorics.]
        > > 
        > >Now 1 of 3 things happen next:
        > >1) First seat passes and the chances of 1st having A Spades can not be calculated mathematically.  All we know for sure is odds or < 27.8%
        > >2) First seat order up the 10S and the chances of 1st having A Spades can not be calculated mathematically.  All 2nd seat knows for sure is odds are > 27.8%
        > >3) First seat order up the 10S and the chances of 1st having A Spades can not be calculated mathematically.  All 2nd seat knows for sure is odds are > 27.8%
        and > whatever the odds are from possibility 2.
        > > 
        > >After any bid you cannot accurately calculate the odds mathematically.  To make things worse, the odds are unknowingly skewed further according to the score and the playing traits of each player ... and worse still, playing traits of each player change with a change of the opposition.
        > > 
        > >... and that is just one bid.  There were 6 bids in the question below.
        > >
        > >
        > >--- On Thu, 6/2/11, Fred Benjamin fastfredy0@... wrote:
        > >
        > >
        > >>From: Fred Benjamin fastfredy0@...
        > >>Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Leading to
        > your partner at 9-9
        > >>To: "EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com" EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        > >>Date: Thursday, June 2, 2011, 6:42 PM
        > >>
        > >>
        > >> 
        > >>You know where I am going.  We have been there before.  I'll make it easy by way of illustration.
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>2nd seat see all the cards dealt out.  2nd seat sees the 10S as the up card.  2nd seat sees he has 0 spades.  2nd seat knows the chances of 1st seat having the A of Spades is (24 - 6) = 18 unknown cards and 1st seat has 5 cards .... 5 chances in 18 or 27.8%.
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>Now 1 of 3 things happen next:
        > >>1) First seat passes and the chances of 1st having A Spades can not be calculated mathematically.  All we know for sure is odds or < 27.8%
        > >>2) First seat order up the 10S and the chances of 1st having A Spades can not be calculated mathematically.  All 2nd seat knows for sure is odds are > 27.8%
        > >>3) First seat order up the 10S and the chances
        of 1st having A Spades can not be calculated mathematically.  All 2nd seatknows for sure is odds are > 27.8% and > whatever the odds are from possibility 2.
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>After any bid you cannot accurately calculate the odds mathematically.  To make things worse, the odds are unknowingly skewed further according to the score and the playing traits of each player ... and worse still, playing traits of each player change with a change of the opposition.
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>... and that is just one bid.  There were 6 bids in the question below.
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>Interestingly, by the same logic, I cannot prove mathematically how inaccurate any statement of the odds are.  (unless no bidding has been made)
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>
        > ~S
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>________________________________
        > >> From: robin neill rhyme_n_reason47@...
        > >>To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        > >>Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 4:56 PM
        > >>Subject: Re: [EuchreScience] Leading to your partner at 9-9
        > >>
        > >>
        > >> 
        > >>Frederic, would you mind elaborating on each of your statements ASIDE:
        > >> 
        > >>"Not possible to accurately calculate % probabilities of card/suit distributions amongst the hands." 
        > >> 
        > >>"The bidding is an indicator of this abnormal skewing." 
        > >>
        > >>--- On Thu, 6/2/11, Fred Benjamin fastfredy0@... wrote:
        > >>
        > >>
        > >>>From: Fred
        >
        Benjamin fastfredy0@...
        > >>>Subject: Re:
        > [EuchreScience]
        > Leading to
        > your partner
        > at 9-9
        > >>>To: "EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com" EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        > >>>Date:
        > Thursday, June
        > 2, 2011, 4:34
        > PM
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>> 
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>>~S
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>>Aside:  Not possible to accurately
        calculate % probabilities of card/suit distributions amongst the hands.  The bidding is an indicator of this abnormal skewing. 
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>>________________________________
        > >>> From: jjewels212 julisinchicago2@...
        > >>>To: EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com
        > >>>Sent: Sunday, May 29, 2011 5:53 PM
        > >>>Subject: [EuchreScience] Leading to your partner at 9-9
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>> 
        > >>>I was playing in Pogo with one of my most favorite partners, one of the best euchre players I know. It was his deal at 9-9. Unfortunately, I don't recall all the cards.
        > >>>
        > >>>He picked up
        > the jack of
        > hearts. I held
        >
        2 clubs, K 9
        > diamonds, and
        > Jd. I trumped
        > the spade
        > lead. Partner
        > threw off a
        > diamond. Out
        > of habit, I
        > led a club
        > because I
        > never lead the
        > suit my
        >
        partner throws
        > off. I
        > typically
        > assume he
        > discarded from
        > a doubleton.
        > If I lead the
        > other suit, I
        > will generally
        > hit his void.
        > >>>
        > >>>My partner got
        > set, but a
        > diamond lead
        >
        would have
        > made the
        > point. My p
        > said, at 9-9,
        > I should have
        > led the
        > diamond after
        > he threw off.
        > He said it's
        > best to assume
        > he picked up
        > very thin and
        >
        that he would
        > discard his
        > singleton on
        > the first
        > trick. If he
        > discards from
        > a doubleton,
        > he reasoned,
        > my lead
        > wouldn't make
        > any difference
        > because he
        >
        would have 3
        > trumps and
        > should be able
        > to make a
        > point no
        > matter what I
        > led.
        > >>>
        > >>>Does his
        > reasoning make
        > sense to you? YES  As a general rule, do you think it is best to lead the suit your partner throws off when the score is 9-9?  YES
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>>
        > >>
        > >>
        > >
        > >
        >


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