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Re: New poll for EuchreScience- passing

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  • bananastew
    ... You know what s really laughable? Your what if argument. You seem to be out in left field arguing with yourself. suppose at 6-6 dealing + picking up Qh
    Message 1 of 2214 , Jan 1, 2009
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      --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "pimped_her_out" <torturedoutlaw@...> wrote:
      >
      > I do believe I could prove it to a reasonable man. It would however
      > be time consuming but I would be happy to invest the time to do so if
      > a reasonable wager was properly facilitated. Aside from that, I have
      > no interest in working on a problem that I already know the solution
      > to. It would be akin to trying to use 1st principles to prove that 1
      > + 1 equals 2 to a brain dead moron.
      >
      > I am an aggressive player, but aggression does not define me as a
      > player. I adapt to the scenario and to my partner. No good comes
      > from it if both players are trying to find an excuse to order on the
      > 1st round. My strong opinion is that aggression is best left to the
      > dealer. The dealer's partner can then be aggressive if it passes back
      > around to him.
      >
      > You saying that turning down would be correct even if it resulted in
      > losing 4 points is laughable for several reasons. What if it would
      > result in losing 20 points over the course of 100 hands? Would it
      > still be correct? 
       

      You know what's really  laughable? Your 'what if' argument. You seem to be out in left field arguing with yourself.

      suppose at 6-6 dealing + picking up Qh results as tested,  in 33% euchred and 67% point scored and a +1 point advantage for your team. THEN, going into the next hand your team is projected to win about 47.4 games. 

      If you decide to pass and the scoring plays end up 48 single pts for your team and 52 single points for the other team, while you end up net -4 points, your projected win rate is 48.1 games, and you opponents can, in zero games, win next hand scoring 2 points.

      *projections determined using Euchre Calculator chart

       

      Here's the bet. Take it or leave it! (But for some reason I know you will have to decline it)

      gentleman's bet     I bet that your ignorant opinionated daddy's daddy saw joy in abusing your  daddy by calling him names and, that your  daddy was ignorant andopinionated and abused you by calling you names. And from the context of the above message, i am willing to go as far as including in the bet that you are as ignorant and opinionated as your educators before you.

       

      This is the operator --- you have been disconnected

       

       

       --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew" bookcasedust@
      > wrote:
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "pimped_her_out"
      > > <torturedoutlaw@> wrote:
      > > >
      > > > No I wasn't frustrated, I realized that no matter what either of us
      > > > say the other 1 can easily refute it.
      > >
      > > Finally an admittance that you cannot prove your position. You are
      > > forgiven.
      > >
      > > I believe that you rejected 2
      > > > many hands where the dealer's partner should not be ordering,
      > >
      > > Strange? I get the sense that you consider yourself an aggressive
      > > player. IMO, not ordering from 2nd seat with about 7 of those holdings
      > > would indicate timidness.
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > >I believe that this is the reason why there were 16 hands euchred.
      > >
      > >
      > > At least 16 hands, maybe even more would have been euchred even if I had
      > > not tossed the 21 times I felt 2nd seat would have ordered. Maybe you
      > > meant, the percentage would have been different?
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > > However if I go and do the same test you will no doubt think that I
      > > > left in too many hand where the dealer's partner should have ordered
      > > > up. This goes to the point in my original post saying that the
      > > > results for these types of things can be very subjective.
      > > >
      > > > But I did say that even if you have a very aggressive partner it would
      > > > still be correct for the dealer to pick up here. I stand by that.
      > > > Your 49 hands showed a net gain of 1 point per 98 deals by picking up.
      > > > And you are still claiming that passing is the right play here?? That
      > > > means that you believe passing will result in a net gain of >1 per 98
      > > > hands.
      > >
      > > IMO Turning down the Qh would still be the correct play even if turning
      > > down results in a net loss of, ahhh, let's say 4 points, if by passing
      > > your team eventually doesn't get euchred more than once or twice.
      > > Getting euchred frequently on a specific play when the score is 6-6 and
      > > not dealing next hand is a much bigger burden on your win rate than is
      > > losing the odd extra single point at this stage.
      > >
      > > If you do believe that then my offer stands regarding playing
      > > > you for money. And no that's no a childish ego challenge, I just like
      > > > money.
      > >
      > >
      > > LOL I have all the money i need, besides, my daddy is already bigger
      > > than your daddy. Are you sure you're not lying about the frustration
      > > factor? :)
      > >
      > >
      > > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew" bookcasedust@
      > > > wrote:
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "pimped_her_out"
      > > > > <torturedoutlaw@> wrote:
      > > > > >
      > > > > > You're either a world class hustler or you really are as dumb as
      > > your
      > > > > > name suggests.
      > > > >
      > > > > I suspect you are frustrated because you cannot prove picking up is
      > > the
      > > > > best play.
      > > > >
      > > > > In either case I intend to find out. Scrap our
      > > > > > previous nonsense bet discussions, Id rather just play you heads
      > > up
      > > > > > for cash. Me and you with bots whenever u want, any1 here is
      > > invited
      > > > > > to come and watch the bloodbath.
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > > LOL @ the last gasp misdirecting childish challenge to play for cash
      > > > > because you cannot prove that picking up the Qh trumps the act of
      > > > > turninging it down. Come on, do more than needlessly tell me that
      > > > > money is the motivator of your life that you need to feel like a
      > > man.
      > > > > PROVE that picking up is right, because, you sure haven't yet been
      > > able
      > > > > to prove my opinion that turning the queen down, is wrong.
      > > > >
      > > > > Mindlessly arguing anothers opinion is incorrect does not make your
      > > > > opinion correct.
      > > > >
      > > > > enuff
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew" bookcasedust@
      > > > > > wrote:
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "pimped_her_out"
      > > > > > > <torturedoutlaw@> wrote:
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Yes, there are at least 7 hands listed I would not order up
      > > with.
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > Seven, seven you say? By golly, you must be one 'very
      > > conservative'
      > > > > > > trump maker. But, knowing that, i still wouldn't pick up the Qh.
      > > lol
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > No wonder your rate of being euchred was so high.
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > Are you suggesting that I am making the dealer who picks up
      > > appear
      > > > > > > stupid because the trump making from 2nd seat appears to be
      > > carried
      > > > > > > out in an extremely skillful manner?
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > >You basically just removed any hand from the test in which the
      > > > > dealer's
      > > > > > > >partner could offer any help at all. Nice job
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > Now you see how it goes down when all the good trump cards are
      > > > > available
      > > > > > > to 1st 2nd and 3rd seat. What do you expect him to do with
      > > bowers in
      > > > > > > his hands? Sit on them and not call?
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > --- In EuchreScience@yahoogroups.com, "bananastew"
      > > bookcasedust@
      > > > > > > > wrote:
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Here are the key cards in the hands I, the player described
      > > by
      > > > > you
      > > > > > > as a
      > > > > > > > > 'very conservative player' tossed from my test because IMO
      > > 2nd
      > > > > seat
      > > > > > > > > would have ordered rather than pass to the dealer. I don't
      > > > > believe
      > > > > > > > > these selected hands indicate I am a 'very conservative'
      > > player,
      > > > > nor
      > > > > > > do
      > > > > > > > > they indicate any sort of aggressiveness. I consider these
      > > > > > > decisions,
      > > > > > > > > (mostly to assist) responsible calls, and to say the test
      > > > > results
      > > > > > > are
      > > > > > > > > very subjective because only i decided to elimate hands is
      > > > > blowing
      > > > > > > smoke
      > > > > > > > > needlessly.
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > JKh AKd
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jd Ah + Ad
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > KAh + Ad As
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > JAh
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jkh
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > JKh + Ad
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jd JAh +A9s
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jd Ah JQKc
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jh Jd As
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > JAKh + As Tc
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jh Ah
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jh JAd + Ad As
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jd Kh As
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > TJQKd Jh
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jd AKh
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jd Jh
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jd Ad Jh
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jh Ah + QKd
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jh JD
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > JAh Ad
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Jh Jd + Ad As
      > > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > > Any combinations here, from my test, that you would not
      > > order up
      > > > > the
      > > > > > > > > dealer?
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > >
      > > > > >
      > > > >
      > > >
      > >
      >

    • jtmwingnut
      Robin, I m sorry for not replying sooner, been busy. The question in the poll was. Down 8-7, 10D upcard, sitting in 2nd chair, holding JD JH 9H KC JC. What do
      Message 2214 of 2214 , May 17
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        Robin, I'm sorry for not replying sooner, been busy. The question in the poll was.

        Down 8-7, 10D upcard, sitting in 2nd chair, holding JD JH 9H KC JC. What do you do?

        The upcard was the 10D not the QD, as you posted. Don't know if that makes a difference. 

        You replied in your initial post with:  "Order,  score a point, and lose the game the majority of the time!"  And, "Bottom line here is you will lose the game the majority of the time by ordering the dealer. "
         
        When I read your reply I assumed "majority of the time" was more than the stats actually say. It is a majority of the time. I was thinking larger numbers

        and went from there.

        I have asked the fellow who does not order from second with both same colored bowers as the upcard to explain in some form of his strategy. His only reply was/is, as I stated before is "I didn't have anything to with them." I will be watching tho.

        Monday we were tied 9-9 and I picked up the KD to go with the AD, three suited, no off suit aces and we got set and lost. I then replied "I figured you with both bowers." We laughed and gave high fives. : )

        Sorry Robin.

        Todd
         

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