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Public Comment Period on "The CCSP synthesis and assessment products" ends May 7, 2004

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  • Pat N self only
    FYI... forwarded message from ClimateChangeDebate Listserv, run by David E. Wojick ... I provided comment to January 2003 draft Climate Change Science Program
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 11 3:02 PM
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      FYI... forwarded message from ClimateChangeDebate
      Listserv, run by David E. Wojick ...

      I provided comment to January 2003 draft Climate Change Science Program draft in January, 2003. In my review of the 2003 Strategic Plan released in July, 2003, my comments and much of the input from dozens of other scientists that provided their comment in January, 2003 were not addressed in the July, 2003 Strategic Plan.

      Pat N.
      --------------------------

      CCSP Public Comment Period -- y'all come.
      From: David E. Wojick
      Date: Sun, 4 Apr 2004 11:18:34
      This is not an April fool's joke, well not exactly.
      I urge people to provide comments. The underlying
      issue is uncertainty versus predictability. Science
      versus the scare. The key list of proposed topics
      and "products" is here--
      http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/ccspstratplan2003-chap2.htm#3
      Be there or be square.
      David

      >From: climate_workshop@...
      >Date: Thu, 1 Apr 2004 16:07:35 -0500 (EST)
      >To: <climate_workshop@...>
      >Subject: [Climate_workshop]
      >CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Draft
      >Guidelines: Public Comment Period
      >X-BeenThere: climate_workshop@...
      >X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1
      >
      >Washington DC
      >1 April 2004
      >
      >CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM
      >
      >DRAFT GUIDELINES
      >CCSP SYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS
      >
      >Public Comment Period:
      >29 March 2004 � 7 May 2004
      >
      >Dear Colleague -
      >
      >You are invited to provide comments on the draft
      >guidelines for the synthesis and assessment
      >products being prepared by the Climate Change
      >Science Program (CCSP). Refer to <http://
      www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap-guidelinereview-invite.htm>
      >for a brief overview, the draft Guidelines
      >themselves, and instructions on how to submit
      >comments by the 3 May deadline.
      >
      >The CCSP synthesis and assessment products
      >are described in detail in the Strategic Plan
      >for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program,
      >released in late July 2003. The products are
      >intended to provide useful information
      >for a variety of end users. The products
      >include reports, data sets, and evaluations
      >of the uses and limits of climate information
      >in decision support. See Chapter 2 of the
      >Strategic Plan for a description of the
      >products
      > http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/ccspstratplan2003-chap2.htm>).

      >This chapter is also available for
      >download as a PDF, or you can order
      >a CD of the CCSP Strategic Plan via
      <http://www.gcrio.org/orders/>.
      >
      >Your comments are requested on the effectiveness
      >of the proposed guidelines in ensuring scientific
      >integrity and facilitating public engagement.
      >Your comments should be submitted electronically
      >to ><comments@...>. Please refer
      >to the instructions for formatting comments to
      >facilitate preparation of a collated set of
      >comments for review by the CCSP. If you have
      >any questions regarding the draft Guidelines
      >review process, please contact Sandy MacCracken
      >at>1-202-419-3483 (voice).
      >
      >All comments submitted by 7 May2004 will be
      >given serious consideration in revising and
      >finalizing the process for producing the reports. The
      >comments received by this date will be posted
      >on the CCSP website <>www.climatescience.gov>.
      >
      >We appreciate your participation
      >and constructive comments.
      >
      >Sincerely,
      >
      >James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.
      >Assistant Secretary of Commerce
      >for Oceans and Atmosphere
      >& Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program
      >
      >Ari Patrinos, Ph.D.
      >Associate Director of Science for Biological
      >and Environmental Research, Department of Energy &
      >Acting Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program
      >_______________________________________________
      >Climate_workshop mailing list
      >Climate_workshop@...
      >http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/climate_workshop
      ---
      David E. Wojick, Ph.D., P.E.
      -------------

      http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/ccspstratplan2003-chap2.htm#3

      Copy of stratplan2003/final/ccspstratplan2003-chap2.htm#3

      follows:

      Strategic Plan for the
      Climate Change
      Science Program
      Final Report, July 2003
      This chapter also available as PDF file.
      Authors of this Chapter
      Final Report also is available as single PDF file (8.8 Mb)
      See also:
      Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan
      Authors, Reviewers, and Workshop Participants
      References
      http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/ccspstratplan2003-chap2.htm#3
      ...
      On a periodic basis (not less frequently than every 4 years) the Council, through the Committee, shall prepare and submit to the President and the Congress an assessment which:

      1. Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings,

      2. Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and

      3. Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years."
      (from Section 106).

      CHAPTER 2.

      Chapter 2 Authors
      Lead Authors
      Richard H. Moss, CCSPO
      Margarita Conkright Gregg, CCSPO
      Jack Kaye, NASA
      James R. Mahoney, DOC

      INTEGRATING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH

      This chapter's contents...
      CCSP Goals and Products
      Critical Dependencies? and Approaches to Integration
      Synthesis and Assessment Products

      Chapter 2 describes the Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) overall approach to climate research on different components of the Earth system and the integration of this research to achieve Program objectives. This chapter expands on CCSP's five goals (see Chapter 1 and Box 2-1), including a brief overview of current scientific understanding, and illustrates the relationship between these goals and the Program's interdisciplinary research elements and cross-cutting activities. Tables listing topics to be covered by CCSP synthesis and assessment products are included and indicate the target time frame for completion of each product. These products will fulfill the requirements for updated synthesis and assessment contained in Section 106 (?Scientific Assessment?) of the Global Change Research Act of 1990.

      This chapter of the plan also includes research products, milestones, and activities, which are grouped under research focus areas for each goal. These are given here as examples and are not meant to constitute exhaustive lists; completion dates are not provided in this chapter, but are in related discussions in Chapters 3-9, and range from 2004 to beyond 2007 (greater than 4 years). Other sections of this chapter discuss integration of research to give a comprehensive picture of the cumulative effects of natural processes and human activities on the future evolution of climate and related systems.

      1. CCSP Goals and Products
      CCSP's goals span the chain of climate-related issues including natural climate conditions and variability; forces that influence climate; cycles and processes that affect atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols; climate responses; consequences for ecosystems, society, and our Nation's economy; and application of knowledge to decisionmaking. This comprehensive characterization provides a useful organizing scheme for examining key climate change issues. CCSP research must focus on the full range of these complex issues if it is to lay the basis for informed discussion and decisionmaking.

      Box 2-1. List of CCSP Goals including Examples of Key Expected Outcomes

      CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

      Better understand the natural long-term cycles in climate (e.g., Pacific Decadal Variability, North Atlantic Oscillation).
      Improve and harness the capability to forecast El Nino-La Nina events and other seasonal-to-interannual cycles of variability.
      Sharpen understanding of climate extremes through improved observations, analyses, and modeling, and determine whether any changes in their frequency or intensity lie outside the range of natural variability.

      Increase confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has changed.

      Expand observations and data/information system capabilities.

      CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems.

      Reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs), emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and their climate effects.

      Monitor recovery of the ozone layer and improve understanding of the interactions among climate change, ozone depletion, and other atmospheric processes.

      Increase knowledge of the interactions among pollutant emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, climate change, and air quality management.

      Develop information on the carbon cycle, land cover and use, and biological/ecological processes by helping to quantify net emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases, thereby improving the evaluation of carbon sequestration strategies and alternative response options.

      Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions and related scenarios for conducting ?If..., then...? analyses in cooperation with the CCTP.

      CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and related systems may change in the future.

      Improve characterization of the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans and their interactions through fluxes of energy and materials.
      Improve understanding of key ?feedbacks? including changes in the amount and distribution of water vapor, extent of ice and the Earth's reflectivity, cloud properties, and biological and ecological systems.
      Increase understanding of the conditions that could give rise to events such as rapid changes in ocean circulation owing to changes in temperature and salinity gradients.

      Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge of climate processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty about climate sensitivity (i.e., response to radiative forcing), projected climate changes, and other related conditions.
      Improve national capacity to develop and apply climate models.
      CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.

      Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems and economic sectors to global climate variability and change.
      Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating adaptation options, in cooperation with mission-oriented agencies and other resource managers.

      Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems (including managed ecosystems such as croplands) and human infrastructure interact over long periods of time.

      CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

      Support informed public discussion of issues of particular importance to U.S. decisions by conducting research and providing scientific synthesis and assessment reports.

      Support adaptive management and planning for resources and physical infrastructure affected by climate variability and change; build new partnerships with public and private sector entities that can benefit both research and decisions.

      Support policymaking by conducting comparative analyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of response options.

      The following text explains the five CCSP goals. The discussion of each goal includes a set of topics to be addressed by synthesis and assessment products related to the goal during the next 4 years (see also section 4 of this chapter), and examples of key research activities to be carried out in moving toward the goal, with links to the discussion of research activities in subsequent chapters. Near-term synthesis and assessment products will draw on a large body of research either already completed or currently underway throughout the CCSP, in addition to new research results as they become available. Over time, CCSP research activities and the development of new synthesis and assessment products will evolve in partnership, as scientific research progresses and as new questions related to policymaking, planning, and adaptive management arise.

      CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and changes.
      The climate system is highly variable, with average conditions changing significantly over the span of seasons, years, decades, and even longer timescales. Examining the period since the industrial revolution, when human activities started to significantly alter the Earth's land surface and increase the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, an increasing body of evidence gives a picture of a warming world and other related changes. A key issue is whether there is a cause and effect relationship between these developments. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the National Research Council (NRC) have independently concluded (in the words of the NRC) that ?changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities,? but that ?a causal linkage between the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the 20th century cannot be unequivocally established? (NRC, 2001a). Uncertainty about natural oscillations in climate on scales of several decades or longer and inconsistencies in the temperature profiles of different data sets are critical scientific questions that must be addressed to improve confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has changed.

      El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a widely-recognized, large-scale climate oscillation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes phase every few years, with significant implications for resource and disaster management. There are other climate cycles that last decades, centuries, and even millennia, as revealed in studies of the Earth's climate history. Recently improved (but still imperfect) capacity to forecast ENSO has yielded significant benefits in the United States and other countries, enabling decisionmakers to prepare for impacts.

      Improved data and information on the climate system's natural variability and recent changes are needed to increase confidence in studies that seek to detect and attribute changes in climate to particular causes. Expanded observations, modeling, and data/information system capabilities will also improve society's ability to respond to the fluctuations and changes in the environment?whether natural or human-induced?that the nation and the world will face in the next 20 to 30 years and beyond. Substantial amounts of data are already collected through both an extensive observations system developed under the USGCRP and a set of operational monitoring systems used for weather forecasting and other uses (that historically were not identified as part of the USGCRP). New technologies can extend existing observation and monitoring networks and improve accessibility to these data, with benefits for both scientific understanding and resource management.

      Topics for Priority CCSP Synthesis Products Significance Completion

      Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere steps for understanding and reconciling differences. Inconsistencies in the temperature profiles of different data sets reduce confidence in understanding of how and why climate has changed. within 2 years

      Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes. High latitudes are especially sensitive and may provide early indications of climate change; new paleoclimate data will provide long-term context for recent observed temperature increases. within 2 years

      Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change. Understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key to increasing confidence in how and why climate has changed and why it may change in the future 2-4 years

      Examples of Key Research Activities

      Focus 1.1: Better understand natural long-term cycles in climate (e.g., Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)).

      An assessment of potential predictability beyond ENSO (e.g., associated with PDV, NAO) and improvements in the representation of major modes of climate variability in climate change projection models (Chapter 4.2)1
      Identification of impacts of natural oscillations in climate on marine fisheries and marine ecosystems (Chapter 8.2)
      Identification of adaptation strategies effective for managing the impacts of seasonal and year-to-year climate variability (Chapter 9.2)
      Focus 1.2: Improve and harness the capability to forecast El Ni�o-La Ni�a and other seasonal-to-interannual cycles of variability

      Improved predictions of El Ni�o-La Ni�a, particularly the onset and decay phases, and improved probability forecasts of regional manifestations of seasonal climate anomalies resulting from ENSO (Chapter 4.2)

      An assessment of potential predictability of annular modes, tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean variability and trends, and the monsoons (Chapter 4.2)

      Analyses of societal adjustment to climate variability and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts (Chapter 9.2)

      Focus 1.3: Sharpen understanding of climate extremes through improved observations, analysis, and modeling, and determine whether any changes in their frequency or intensity lie outside the range of natural variability

      Improved observational databases, including paleoclimate and historical data records, and model simulations of past climate, to detect and analyze regional trends in extreme events Chapter 4.4)

      Observational and statistical analyses to assess the relationships between extreme events and natural climate variations, such as ENSO, PDV, NAO/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode, and ecosystem response (Chapters 4.4 and 8.2)

      Focus 1.4: Increase confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has changed

      Development and extension of critical data sets (including paleoclimatic data) to improve analyses of climate variability and attribution of causes of climate change (Chapter 4.2)

      Integrated long-term global and regional data sets of critical water cycle variables such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, clouds, etc. from satellite and in situ observations for monitoring climate trends and early detection of climate change (Chapter 5.1)

      Focus 1.5: Expand observations and data/information system capabilities

      Data requirements analysis and planning:

      Requirements analysis for a global integrated climatological, ecological, and land use monitoring system, followed by design specifications for the monitoring system (completed with significant international collaboration) (Chapter 12)

      Definition of the initial requirements for ecosystem observations to quantify feedbacks to climate and atmospheric chemistry, to enhance existing observing systems, and to guide development of new observing capabilities (Chapters 8.1 and 3.5)

      Definition of the initial requirements for observing systems to monitor the health of ecosystems, including a new suite of indicators of coastal and aquatic ecosystem change (Chapter 8.2)

      Identification and rescue of data that are at risk of being lost because of media deterioration, poor accessibility, or limited distribution. (Chapter 13)

      Data systems and products
      Monitoring and data systems for water resources research and management (Chapter 5.4)

      Development high resolution climate data products for climate-sensitive regions, based on monthly instrumental data and annual paleoclimatic data and climate forecasts (Chapter 4.1 and 4.5)

      Implementation of climate quality data and metadata documentation, standards, and formatting policies that will make possible the combined use of targeted data products taken at different times, by different means, and for different purposes. (Chapter 13)

      Global high-resolution satellite remotely sensed data and land-cover databases and global maps of areas of rapid land-use and land-cover change and location and extent of fires (Chapter 6.1)

      CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems.
      Combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land cover and land use, and industrial activities produce greenhouse gases and aerosols and alter the composition of the atmosphere and important physical and biological properties of the Earth's surface. For example, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased approximately 30 percent since the mid 18th century (see Figure 2-2).

      The current level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has not been exceeded during at least the past 420,000 years (the span measurable in ice cores). Atmospheric concentrations of other greenhouse gases [methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halocarbons (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs))] have also increased. For example, methane concentrations have more than doubled and the concentrations of industrially produced molecules have increased against a zero natural background. In the case of chlorine, the amount of chlorine in the stratosphere has essentially quintupled due to this human release.

      Figure 2-2: Direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii and the South Pole, and CO2 concentration as derived from the Vostok Antarctic ice core. Source: Adapted from IPCC (2001a), with Mauna Loa record updated by Dave Keeling and Tim Whorf, Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

      These changes have several important climatic effects. Greenhouse gases (which remain in the atmosphere for years to millennia) have a warming influence on climate, while aerosols (which usually remain in the atmosphere for weeks to months) have both warming and cooling effects that can be quantified only poorly at present (see Figure 2-3). Research conducted as part of the CCSP will reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of GHGs and emissions of aerosols and their precursors, their climate effects, and the implications of controls on aerosol emissions for both climate and air quality at regional and local scales.

      Figure 2-3: Global mean radiative forcing of the climate system and degree of certainty (see Chapter 3 and the Figure 3-2 Annex C entry for more detail). Source: Adapted from IPCC (2001a).

      Changes in land cover and use affect climate directly, for example by altering the Earth's albedo, or reflectivity. They also affect ecosystems and biological processes that contribute to carbon sources and sinks, emissions of other greenhouse gases, and the potential for land use changes to alter regional hydrology. Several CCSP initiatives, including accelerated research on the carbon cycle under the CCRI, will develop needed information for policymaking and improved carbon management.

      Emissions of some sets of industrial compounds also contribute to depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer and increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation (which contributes to skin cancers, eye diseases, and possibly other environmental problems). Many of these same ozone-depleting gases are also significant greenhouse gases. The CCSP will monitor the recovery of the ozone layer and long-term changes in the industrial compounds and stratospheric conditions that bring about stratospheric ozone depletion.

      Future human contributions to climate forcing and potential associated environmental changes will depend on rates and levels of population change, economic growth, development and diffusion of technologies, and other dynamics in human systems. These developments are unpredictable over the long timescales relevant for climate change research. However, If..., then... scenario experiments, if carefully constructed, can make it possible to explore the potential implications of different technological, economic, and institutional conditions for future emissions, climate, and living standards.

      Improving the approach to developing and using these scenarios, in cooperation with the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP), is a priority for the CCSP. The program will work with the CCTP to explore the climate and related implications of different technology portfolios in order to provide information for decisionmaking and to enable the United States to continue its work within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. In conjunction with research on the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycles, improved scenario-based analyses hold the promise of increasing our understanding of potential future forcing of climate, as called for by the NRC.

      Topics for Priority CCSP Synthesis Products Significance Completion

      Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the CCTP.

      Review of integrated scenario development and application.
      Sound, comprehensive emissions scenarios are essential for comparative analysis of how climate may change in the future, as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options. within 2 years

      North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle. The build-up of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere and the fraction of carbon being taken up by North America's ecosystems and coastal oceans are key factors in estimating future climate change. within 2 years

      Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate. There is a high level of uncertainty about how climate may be affected by different types of aerosols, both warming and cooling, and thus how climate change might be affected by their control. 2-4 years

      Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change. This information is key to ensuring that international agreements to phase out production of ozone-depleting substances are having the expected outcome (recovery of the protective ozone layer). 2-4 years

      Examples of Key Research Activities

      Focus 2.1: Reduce uncertainties about the sources and sinks of GHGs, emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and their climate effects

      Observationally-assessed and improved uncertainty ranges of the radiative forcing of the chemically-active greenhouse gases(Chapter 3.2)

      Focus 2.2: Monitor the recovery of the ozone layer and improve the understanding of the interactions of climate change, ozone depletion, tropospheric pollution, and other atmospheric issues

      Updated trends of stratospheric ozone and ozone-depleting gases in the atmosphere (Chapter 3.4)

      Improved quantitative model evaluation of the sensitivity of the ozone layer to changes in atmospheric transport and composition related to climate change (Chapter 3.4)

      Focus 2.3: Increase knowledge of the interactions among emissions, long-range atmospheric transport, and transformations of atmospheric pollutants, and their response to air quality management strategies

      State of the Atmosphere report that describes and interprets the status of the characteristics and trends associated with atmospheric composition, ozone layer depletion, temperature, rainfall, and ecosystem exposure (Chapter 3.5)

      A policy-relevant evaluation of the issues related to intercontinental transport, the impact of air pollutants on climate, and the impact of climate change on air pollutants (Chapter 3.5)

      Focus 2.4: Develop information on the carbon cycle, land cover and use, and biological/ecological processes by helping to quantify net emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases, thereby improving the evaluation of carbon sequestration strategies and alternative response options

      Improved coupled land-atmosphere models (jointly produced by the Carbon Cycle, Water Cycle, and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change elements) and enhanced capability to assess the consequences of different land-use change scenarios (Chapters 5.2, 6.4, and 7.3)

      Report on the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on local carbon dynamics and the mitigation and management of greenhouse gases (Chapter 6.4 and 7.3)

      Carbon cycle information to quantify the magnitude and variability of CO2 sources, sinks, and fluxes to support analysis of carbon sequestration and management in terrestrial and oceanic systems (Chapter 7)

      Interactive global climate-carbon cycle models that explore the coupling and feedbacks between the physical and biogeochemical systems (Chapter 7.4)

      Improved projections of climate change forcings and quantification of dynamic feedbacks among the carbon cycle, human actions, and the climate system, with better estimates of errors and sources of uncertainty (Chapters 3.2 and 7.5)

      Scientific criteria and model tests of carbon management sustainability that take into account system interactions and feedbacks and analysis of options for science-based carbon management decisions and deployment by landowners (Chapters 7.6 and 3.2)

      Focus 2.5 Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions and related scenarios for conducting ?If..., then...? analyses in cooperation with the CCTP

      Quantify and project possible drivers of land-use change for a range of economic, environmental, and social values and develop regional, national, and global land-use and land-cover change projection models, incorporating advances in our understanding of drivers (Chapter 6.2 and 6.3)

      Linked ecosystem, resource management, and human dimensions models that enable scientific evaluation of a wide range of policy scenarios and assessment of effects on atmospheric CO2 concentration and carbon sources and sinks (Chapters 7.3 and 8.1)
      Scenarios will be strengthened by an improved understanding of the interdependence among economic growth; population growth, composition, distribution, and dynamics (including migration); energy use in different sectors (e.g., electric power generation, transportation); advancements in technologies; and pollutant emissions (Chapter 9.1)
      CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and related systems may change in the future.
      While there is a great deal known about the mechanisms that affect the response of the climate system to changes in natural and human influences, many basic questions remain to be addressed. There is also a high level of uncertainty regarding precisely how much climate will change overall and in specific regions (see Figure 2-4). Current models project significantly different increases in global average surface temperature, from approximately 1oC to more than 5oC during the 21st century. This range of uncertainty incorporates both different estimates of climate sensitivity (the increase in temperature that results from a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 for example) and a wide range in projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. A primary objective of the CCSP is to build on existing information and scientific capacity to sharpen qualitative and quantitative understanding through observations, data assimilation, and modeling activities.

      CCSP-supported process research will address basic climate system properties and interactions, including improving characterization of the circulation and interaction of energy in the atmosphere and oceans. It will also seek to reduce uncertainties regarding a number of ?feedbacks? or secondary changes caused by the initial influence that can either reinforce or dampen the initial effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols. These feedbacks include changes in the amount and distribution of water vapor, changes in extent of ice and the Earth's reflectivity, changes in cloud properties, and changes in biological and ecological systems that could significantly change emissions or absorption of greenhouse gases (see Figure 2-5).

      A cause for concern about which there is considerable uncertainty is the potential for changes in extreme events, and rapid, discontinuous changes in climate. Such changes could have profound effects on the environment and human well-being because the time available for adaptation would be limited. The historical record of past climates revealed through the study of ancient ice cores and other paleoclimate data indicates that the climate system can change relatively rapidly in response to internal processes or rapidly changing external forcing. Increasing our understanding of the conditions that could give rise to events such as rapid changes in ocean circulation is a key aspect of CCSP-supported research.

      Incorporation of this basic process-level knowledge into climate and ecosystems models holds promise for improving our ability to forecast and project climate phenomena. Climate models seek to quantitatively simulate the behavior of the climate system and its response to changes in forcing. They vary in complexity and uses, but in the most complex, various components of the climate system (atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere) are coupled together to study the evolution of the entire Earth system. Research indicates that there are limits to the predictability of regional and local scale phenomena. At this point, modeled projections of the future regional impacts of global climate change are often contradictory and are not sufficiently reliable tools for planning. Alternative methods such as use of climate analogue scenarios and weather generators may sometimes be employed for these purposes.

      Topics for Priority CCSP Synthesis Products Significance Completion

      Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis. Clarifying the uses and limitations of climate models at different spatial and temporal scales will contribute to appropriate application of these results. within 2 years

      Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through the CCTP. Production of these projections will help develop modeling capacity and will provide important inputs to comparative analysis of response options. 2-4 years
      Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for improving projections. Extreme events have important implications for natural resources, property, infrastructure, and public safety. 2-4 years

      Risks of abrupt changes in global climate. Abrupt changes have occurred in the past and thus it is important to evaluate what we know about the potential for abrupt change in the future. 2-4 years

      Examples of Key Research Activities

      Focus 3.1: Improve characterization of the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans and their interactions through fluxes of energy and materials

      Improved high-resolution three-dimensional ocean circulation models and improved estimates of global air-sea-land fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum needed to discern characteristics of ocean-atmosphere-land coupling and to assess the global energy balance (Chapters 4.2 and 5.1)
      Models of ocean uptake of carbon that integrate biogeochemistry, ocean circulation, and marine ecosystem responses (Chapters 7.2 and 8.2)
      Focus 3.2: Improve understanding of key ?feedbacks? including changes in the amount and distribution of water vapor, extent of ice and the Earth's reflectivity, cloud properties, and biological and ecological systems

      Results from process studies related to the indirect effects of aerosols on clouds will be available for future assessments of climate sensitivity to aerosols (Chapter 3.1 and 3.2)
      Quantification of the potential changes in the cryosphere, including the effects of permafrost melting on regional hydrology and the carbon budget, and the consequences for mountain snowpacks, sea ice, and glaciers (Chapter 5.2)

      Evaluation of the potential for dramatic changes in carbon storage and fluxes and quantification of important feedbacks from ecological systems to climate and atmospheric composition to improve the accuracy of climate projections (Chapters 7.5 and 8.1)

      Focus 3.3: Increase understanding of the conditions that could give rise to events such as rapid changes in ocean circulation due to changes in temperature and salinity gradients

      State of understanding on the causes of abrupt changes, and probabilistic estimates of future risks of abrupt global and regional climate-induced changes, including the collapse of the thermohaline circulation, persistent ENSO conditions, abrupt sea level rises, and the positive feedback associated with high latitude ice (ice sheets and sea ice) and their impacts on albedo (Chapter 4.3)

      Focus 3.4: Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge of climate processes and feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty in projections of climate sensitivity, changes in climate, and related conditions such as sea level

      Improved representation of processes (e.g., thermal expansion, ice sheets, water storage, coastal subsidence) in climate models that are required for simulating and projecting sea level changes (Chapter 4.2)

      Estimates of the spatial and temporal limits of predictability of climate variability and change forced by human activities (Chapter 4.2)
      Incorporation of water cycle and carbon cycle processes, interactions, and feedbacks into an integrated Earth system modeling framework (Chapters 5.2 and 7.5)

      New observationally tested parameterizations for clouds and precipitation processes for use in climate models based on cloud-resolving models developed in part through field process studies (Chapter 5.2)

      National and global models with a coupled climate-land use system (Chapter 6.4)

      Improved capability to include and accurately formulate terrestrial and marine ecosystem dynamics within local and regional climate models.

      Focus 3.5: Improve national capacity to develop and apply climate models

      Continue support of the two high-end climate modeling centers to respond to the need for scenario-driven climate modeling in support of assessments (Chapter 10)

      Support for a Common Modeling Infrastructure to optimize modeling resources and enable meaningful knowledge transfer among modelers (Chapter 10)

      Develop a program of focused model intercomparisons and conduct evaluation and analysis of the model sensitivities of major U.S. models as well as model validation with available observational data (Chapter 10)

      CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.

      Seasonal to annual variability in climate has been connected to impacts on almost every aspect of human life: agricultural yields, water resources, energy demand and supply, transportation, price fluctuations, fishery yields, forest fires, human health and welfare, and many others. Long timescale natural climate cycles and potential future human-induced changes in climate could have additional effects, including altering the lengths of growing seasons, the sustainability of water resource management systems, the geographical ranges of plant and animal species, biodiversity, estuarine and ocean productivity, and the incidence of disturbance regimes that affect both natural and human-made environments. Potential benefits and risks have been identified for a number of systems and activities. Improving our ability to assess potential vulnerability and resilience to future variations and changes in climate and environmental conditions could enable governments, businesses, and communities to reduce negative impacts and seize opportunities to benefit from changing conditions by adapting infrastructure, activities, and plans.

      The potential effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and human activities will not be determined solely by their sensitivity and adaptability, but also by multiple, cumulative interactions among physical, ecological, economic, and social conditions. For example, some crops and plants that might otherwise experience reductions in productivity as a result of changes in climate alone could actually experience increased growth and productivity as a result of increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and nutrients (from deposition and runoff). Other species and ecosystems, which could to adjust to climate change alone, might be endangered when land use and other factors interfere with adaptive mechanisms such as migration. Interacting factors must be identified and understood to develop accurate projections of effects. The CO2 ?fertilization effect? (increased plant growth due to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations), nitrogen deposition, disturbance (e.g., fire, pest infestations), land cover fragmentation (see Figure 2-6), air pollution, and other factors affect the functioning (e.g., water use efficiency, biomass allocation) and composition of natural and managed ecosystems over long periods of time. Similarly, estuarine and coastal ecosystems face multiple-stressor problems associated with point source and non-point source pollution, increased sedimentation resulting from poor land-use practices, invasive species and sea-level rise. Multiple stressors affecting marine ecosystems include natural climate variations (e.g., ENSO and PDV cycles), fishing, and changes in ocean productivity brought on by uncertain causes. The interactions are even more complex when one examines the interactions of biophysical and socioeconomic systems. CCSP research will examine the implications of multiple interacting changes to improve projections of effects.

      Evaluation of the potential impacts associated with different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols is an important input to weighing the costs and benefits associated with different climate policies. Further research is required to integrate still limited understanding of effects of different concentration levels, and the influence of human activities on concentrations, and to develop methods for aggregating and comparing impacts across different sectors and settings.

      Topics for Priority CCSP Synthesis Products Significance Completion

      Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. Evaluation of how well equipped society is to cope with potential sea level rise can help reduce vulnerability. within 2 years

      State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources. This approach seeks to determine how much climate change natural environments and resources can withstand before being adversely affected. 2-4 years

      Relationship between observed ecosystem changes and climate change. Earlier blossoming times, longer growing seasons, and other changes are being observed, and this report will explore what is known about why these events are happening. 2-4 years

      Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. Understanding of adaptation options can support improved resource management?whether change results from natural or human causes?and thus helps realize opportunities or reduce negative impacts. 2-4 years

      Scenario-based analysis of the climatological, environmental, resource, technological, and economic implications of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Knowing how well we can differentiate the impacts of different greenhouse gas concentrations is important in determining the range of appropriate response policies. 2-4 years

      State-of-the-science of socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability. This product will help improve application of evolving ENSO forecasts by synthesizing information on impacts, both positive and negative, of variability. 2-4 years

      Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options. Safety and efficiency of transportation infrastructure ? much of which has a long life time ? may be increased through planning that takes account of sensitivities to climate variability and change. 2-4 years

      Examples of Key Research Activities

      Focus 4.1: Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems and economic sectors to global climate variability and change

      Results from field and modeling experiments to study the role of mountain environments on precipitation and runoff production (Chapter 5.3)

      Downscaling techniques, such as improved regional climate models, for improved evaluation of potential water resource impacts arising from climate variability and change (Chapter 5.3)

      Reports on past and projected trends in land cover or land use that are attributable to changes in climate (e.g., changes in forest type, changes in agriculture) (Chapter 6.4)

      Ecosystem observations, coupled physical-biological models, indicators, and reports to permit better assessment of the potential consequences of global and climatic changes on selected arctic, alpine, wetland, riverine, and estuarine and marine ecosystems; selected forest and rangeland ecosystems; selected desert ecosystems; and the Great Lakes (Chapter 8.2)

      Development of data and predictive models determining the sensitivity of selected organisms and their assemblages to changes in UV-B radiation and other environmental variables relative to observations of UV-B radiation in terrestrial, aquatic, and wetland habitats (Chapter 8.2)

      Assessments of the potential economic impacts of climate change on the producers and consumers of food and fiber products (Chapter 8.2 and 9.2)

      Focus 4.2: Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating adaptation options, in cooperation with mission-oriented agencies and other resource managers

      Data and models demonstrating how different adaptation strategies in croplands and commercial forests affect the sustainability of these ecosystems in changing environmental conditions and their ability to meet human demands (Chapter 8.3)

      Initiation of development of decision support tools relevant to regions where abrupt changes or threshold ecological responses may occur, especially high-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems and transitional zones between ecosystems (i.e., ecotones) such as forest-grassland, agriculture-native prairie, riparian and coastal zones, coastal-oceanic boundaries, and rural-urban interfaces (Chapter 8.3)

      Data sets and spatially explicit models for examining effects of management and policy decisions on a wide range of terrestrial and marine ecosystems to predict the efficacy and tradeoffs of management strategies at varying scales, and preliminary comparisons of the effectiveness of selected management practices (Chapter 8.3)

      Analysis of potential impacts of climate variability and change on transportation infrastructure and operations, and preliminary development of decision-support tools relevant to transportation decisionmakers (Chapter 9.2)

      Focus 4.3: Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems (including managed ecosystems such as croplands) and human infrastructure interact over long periods of time

      Evaluations of the effects of water cycle variability and change on trends in water quality conditions (Chapter 5.4)

      Data from field experiments quantifying aboveground and belowground effects of elevated CO2 concentration in combination with other environmental changes on the structure and functioning of agricultural, forest, and aquatic ecosystems (Chapters 7.5 and 8.2)

      Examination of responses of ecosystems (including any changes in nutrient cycling) to combinations of elevated CO2 concentration, warming, and altered hydrology, with data collection underway (Ch8.2)

      Analysis of the global occurrence, extent, and impact of major disturbances (e.g., fire, insects, drought, and flooding) on land use and land cover (Chapter 6.1)

      Identification of the regions in the United States where land use and climate change may have the most significant implications for land management (Chapter 6.5)

      Spatially explicit ecosystem models at regional to global scales, to improve our understanding of contemporary and historical changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and synthesis of known effects of increasing CO2, warming, changes in precipitation, and other factors (e.g., increasing tropospheric ozone) on terrestrial ecosystems (Chapter 8.2)

      Estimates of the value of the ancillary benefits (e.g., enhanced wildlife habitat and improved water quality) that could result from implementing various mitigation and adaptation activities within the forestry sector (Chapters 8.3 and 9.2)

      Next phase of assessments of the health effects of combined exposures to climatic and other environmental factors (e.g., air pollution) (Chapter 9.4)

      CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

      The first four CCSP goals focus on the key issues of understanding natural climate conditions and variability, forces that influence climate, climate responses, and implications for human systems and natural environments. CCSP research will focus on this full range of issues in order to lay the basis for informed discussion and decisionmaking. The fifth CCSP goal focuses on the way that this scientific information is used for support of decision needs.

      Over the last decade, the USGCRP has enlisted federal and external experts to develop a variety of products and resources for decision support. These include methods and tools for integrated assessment (including a variety of quantitative integrated assessment models); state of science syntheses and assessments of climate variability and change; international assessments of stratospheric ozone depletion; applications of Earth science observations and data; experiments for application of ENSO forecasts in a variety of regions and economic sectors; and advisory committee assessments of the potential vulnerabilities and opportunities arising from climate change in different regions and sectors of the United States.

      These products of the first decade have evoked much commentary, both positive and negative. Formal evaluations of the processes and products of some of these activities have been conducted by the NRC. CCSP's decision support activities will respond to the relevant recommendations of the NRC in reports such as Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade (NRC, 1999a), Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (NRC, 2001a), and The Science of Regional and Global Change: Putting Knowledge to Work (NRC, 2001e). The Program will also encourage further evaluation and learning from these experiences in order to structure decision support processes and products that use existing knowledge to the best effect while communicating the limits of this knowledge.

      CCSP activities in support of its fifth goal will improve the nation's and global community's understanding of the nature and extent of the challenges inherent in climate change and develop improved resources for evaluating options for adaptation and mitigation. Fulfilling this goal will require development of a variety of resources including observations, databases, data and model products, scenarios, a variety of visualization products, and improved approaches for interacting with users. Research in many of the program elements holds promise of yielding decision support information and products. Improved resources for decision support also require a concerted focus on the processes through which information is developed and applied to support decisionmaking in different areas.

      Areas of decisionmaking to be supported by the CCSP include adaptive management, planning, and policy. Each of these categories will have its own unique set of stakeholders and will require different decision support processes and tools that will be recognized in the implementation of CCSP decision support activities. CCSP will engage both decisionmakers and members of the research community in the development of processes well suited to both the state of science and decisionmaking needs. In addition to supporting decisionmaking, the decision support activities of the CCSP will also help to identify key knowledge gaps and provide feedback to researchers that will guide the evolution of the CCSP agenda.

      Topics for Priority CCSP Synthesis Products Significance Completion

      Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision-support for selected sectors and regions. There is a great need for regional climate information; further evaluation of the reliability of current information is crucial in developing new applications. within 2 years
      Best-practice approaches to characterize, communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. Improvements in how scientific uncertainty is evaluated and communicated can help reduce misuse of this information. within 2 years

      Decision-support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data. Climate variability is an important factor in resource planning and management; improved application of forecasts and data can benefit society within 2 years

      Examples of Key Research Activities

      Focus 5.1: Support informed public discussion of issues of particular importance to U.S. decisions by conducting research and providing scientific synthesis and assessment reports

      Contribute to and participate in international assessments on climate change, ozone depletion, and other issues as they arise (multiple chapters)

      Produce a number of synthesis reports and assessments that integrate research results focused on identified science and decision issues in association with stakeholders and researchers to meet the requirements of the Global Change Research Act (multiple chapters)

      Focus 5.2: Support adaptive management and planning for resources and physical infrastructure sensitive to climate variability and change; build new partnerships with public and private sector entities that can benefit both research and decisionmaking

      Increased partnerships with existing user support institutions, such as state climatologists, regional climate centers, agricultural extension services, resource management agencies, and state and local governments to accelerate uses of climate knowledge (Chapter 11)

      Assess the adequacy of existing operational climate monitoring networks to provide regional decision support, and to identify major data gaps in addressing critical regional and policy issues, such as drought planning and response (Chapter 4.5)

      Conduct and analyze decision support experiments using observations, integrated data sets, forecasts of seasonal climate variability, and longer-term model projections (multiple chapters)

      Develop and apply frameworks for assessing the uses and limits of current regional scale information (multiple chapters)
      Focus 5.3: Support policymaking by conducting comparative analyses and evaluations of the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of response options

      Improve stakeholder involvement in articulating and framing all aspects of policy support activities including question formulation, study design, and transparent review involving stakeholders (Chapter 11)
      Strengthen capacity and conduct ?If..., then...? scenario analyses (Chapter 11 and through cooperation with the CCTP)

      Develop and apply additional methods for integrated assessment and comparative analyses (Chapters 9 and 11)

      2. Critical Dependencies? and Approaches to Integration
      The interdisciplinary research elements of the CCSP partition the overall Earth system and the issue of climate change into discrete and manageable sets of research problems. While partitioning the problem is necessary for both research and program management purposes, it carries with it the potential to divert attention from critical questions that are beyond the scope of the individual research elements, instead emphasizing lower priority issues that reside completely within a single research area. Thus, a key challenge facing the CCSP is engaging in integrated planning that ?puts back together? the pieces of the Earth system and fosters problem-driven interdisciplinary research. This is especially true for ?critical dependencies,? topics for which progress in one research element is only possible if related research is first completed in other areas. The CCSP will need to foster integration across research elements and disciplines; among basic research and supporting activities such as observations, modeling, and data management; in the development of comprehensive climate models; and between participating departments and agencies if it is to achieve its objectives.

      Critical dependencies? among the research elements
      Scientifically, integration is essential for understanding how the Earth system functions and will evolve in response to future forcing. This is because of the inherent interconnectedness among components of the Earth system. In particular, the existence of feedback loops in the Earth system creates the need to work across disciplinary boundaries. For some issues, it will be necessary to coordinate and integrate across all of the CCSP program elements. One example that illustrates how the different research elements may help address a key uncertainty is given in Box 2-2, focused on the question of the evolution of the global distribution of atmospheric methane.

      Box 2-2. Integrating Across Research Elements to Improve Projections of Methane Emissions and Concentrations

      In order to improve understanding of current and projected atmospheric concentrations of methane, it is essential to integrate results obtained through the different CCSP science elements. This includes pulling together information on the initial concentration, the sources of additional emissions, the processes that transport it, and the removal processes. Each of the research elements will contribute the following information:

      Atmospheric Composition measurement of methane's distribution in the atmosphere is by definition the starting point to assessing the evolution of its future concentrations. Since the major removal process for methane from the atmosphere is its oxidation by hydroxyl (OH), assessment of the distribution of OH, including its spatial and temporal variation, is also required. The inverse modeling that is used to help infer source distributions is also part of this research element.

      Climate Variability and Change ? the climate system circulates methane from its source regions and distributes it uniformly around the globe. Climate also determines temperature, which affects both methane emissions and the rate at which it is removed through oxidation by OH (one of the more temperature-dependent reactions that affects atmospheric composition). This research element also provides estimates of future changes in surface temperatures at high latitudes. These estimates are important for determining the likelihood that methane tied up in the surface at high latitudes could be released.

      Carbon Cycle ? although methane is less abundant than carbon dioxide, its contribution to atmospheric radiative forcing is significant due to its much greater radiative impact per molecule. Carbon cycle studies estimate the overall release and uptake of methane, provide the context necessary for interpreting measurements and estimates of methane release and removal, and incorporate advanced understanding of process controls on methane uptake and release from the land and oceans into carbon cycling models.

      Water Cycle ? water plays a crucial role in helping to establish the conditions under which methane is emitted, and it also is a crucial precursor to OH, which removes methane from the atmosphere. Water availability also affects the magnitude and rate of emissions from agricultural sources (e.g., rice cultivation), landfills, and other land-based sources.

      Land-Cover/Land-Use Change some land uses are associated with methane emissions. For example, methane is emitted from rice cultivation and natural wetlands, and is removed from the atmosphere by vegetation and soils. Improved understanding of how land is used in different locations, as well as how land uses might change over time, is crucial to estimating current and projecting future emissions.

      Ecosystems ? the production of methane from biological processes can be traced to microbial processes, and the ecosystems research element provides the knowledge base for carrying out relevant studies of the biology that underlies methane production and its emission to the atmosphere.

      Human Impacts methane is emitted by many human activities, including agricultural practices such as raising livestock and growing rice, waste disposal practices in landfills and other sites, and the production and transportation of coal, natural gas, and oil. The amount of methane emitted by these activities depends on basic characteristics of the emission processes as well as the management practices that are employed. These have changed and will continue to change over time and hence must be considered in estimating current and projecting future emissions.

      Because the components of the Earth system interact continuously, research in one program element often has a critical dependency with work in other elements. Critical dependencies can involve insights from process studies, data flows, model components, and other research and operational activities.

      The most obvious set of critical dependencies is in the area of observational data. In many cases, observations of the underlying physical state of the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation history) are required before questions about climate or global change can be addressed. Another example is information on land cover and land use, which also forms the basis for many studies of hydrology, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems research. Chapters 3-9 describe both the inputs that each research element needs from other program elements and the products that each expects to produce to support goals in other research areas. A challenge for the CCSP will be to coordinate production of information required to satisfy these critical dependencies so that they meet requirements and are sequenced properly.

      The CCSP will coordinate development of implementation plans for the research elements to meet this challenge. Box 2-3 lists illustrative examples of Critical Dependencies from the research elements.

      Box 2-3. Selected Examples of Critical Dependencies to be Supported by each Research Element

      Chapter 3. Atmospheric Composition
      Radiative forcing input parameters to climate model simulations

      Climate Variability and Change
      Characterization of other composition-climate processes (e.g., impact of aerosols on cloud formation and precipitation) Water Cycle

      Chapter 4. Climate Variability and Change
      Cloud/water vapor feedback processes in the context of the coupled climate system models Water Cycle
      Environmental condition predictions/estimates Land-Use/Land-Cover Change, Carbon Cycle, Ecosystems

      Chapter 5. Water Cycle

      Long-range prediction capability for drought and flood risks (seasonal to interannual time scales) Climate Variability and Change
      Quantification of the potential impact of changes in permafrost on regional hydrology and the carbon budget Carbon Cycle

      Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

      Analysis of the effects of historical and contemporary land use on carbon storage and release across environmental gradients ? Carbon Cycle Quantification and projection of possible drivers of land-use change for a range of economic, environmental, and social values Ecosystems, Carbon Cycle, Human Contributions And Responses
      Chapter 7. Carbon Cycle

      Quantitative estimates of carbon fluxes from managed and unmanaged ecosystems in North America and surrounding oceans, with regional specificity Water Cycle, Ecosystems, Land-Use/Land-Cover Change, Climate Variability and Change

      Evaluation of the environmental effects of mitigation options Ecosystems, Human Contributions and Responses, Land-Use/Land-Cover Change

      Chapter 8. Ecosystems
      Information about ecological inputs to atmospheric composition through greenhouse gas exchanges between the atmosphere and ecosystems

      Atmospheric Composition
      Information about energy exchanges between ecosystems and the atmosphere for inclusion in general circulation models

      Climate Variability and Change
      Analysis of effects of global change on ecosystem goods and services Human Contributions and Responses

      Chapter 9. Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

      Improved modeling frameworks that better link general circulation, ecological, and economic models of the agricultural and forestry sectors Water Cycle, Ecosystems, Land-Use/Land-Cover Change, Climate Variabili<br/><br/>(Message over 64 KB, truncated)
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