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Re: climate change

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  • npat1@juno.com
    ... Tim, In January of 2000 director of NOAA made it clear to the American people (on CBS Evening News with Dan Rather) that anthropogenic rapid global warming
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 3, 2004
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      > "The fact that some people could use Willson's results
      > as an excuse to do nothing about greenhouse gas
      > emissions is one reason we felt we needed to look
      > at the data ourselves," says Lean. "Since so much
      > is riding on whether current climate change is natural
      > or human-driven, it's important that people hear that
      > many in the scientific community don't believe there
      > is any significant long-term increase in solar output
      > during the last 20 years."

      Tim,

      In January of 2000 director of NOAA made it clear to the American people
      (on CBS Evening News with Dan Rather) that anthropogenic rapid global
      warming was already happening due to an overload of greenhouse gases in
      the atmosphere. The director said that great destruction was inevitable
      in the years ahead due to rapid global warming. I think great
      destruction has already been happening due to rapid global climate
      warming on Earth, as Director of NOAA James Baker had said in his early
      2000 statements on national television.

      Regardless of the damage and consequences, the "do nothing about
      greenhouse gas emissions people" want to continue to do just that for as
      long as possible... fearing that to do otherwise could be bad for
      economics.

      For 101 years (from 1880 through 1980) Global Land air Temperature (GLT)
      annual averages were below 48.0 degrees F. GLT annual averages for
      every year of the last 10 years (1994 through 2003) have been above 48.0
      degrees F.

      annual averages from 1980 through 2003 are listed below.


      Table 1. Global Land Air Temperature Annual Averages

      90 year average GLT from 1880 through 1969 = 47.17 deg F.

      124 year average GLT from 1880 through 2003 = 47.3 deg F.


      GLT Annual Averages
      1970 through 2003

      Year GLTdeg F
      1970 47.41
      1971 47.15
      1972 47.08
      1973 47.79
      1974 47.02
      1975 47.41
      1976 46.84
      1977 47.71
      1978 47.43
      1979 47.66
      1980 47.75
      1981 48.13
      1982 47.53
      1983 48.15
      1984 47.43
      1985 47.49
      1986 47.77
      1987 48.09
      1988 48.24
      1989 48.03
      1990 48.54
      1991 48.29
      1992 47.82
      1993 47.91
      1994 48.35
      1995 48.61
      1996 48.03
      1997 48.51
      1998 49.15
      1999 48.69
      2000 48.44
      2001 48.82
      2002 49.03
      2003 48.80

      1998 was a major El Nino year.

      What will be the next major El Nino year?

      Pat

      On Tue, 3 Feb 2004 Tim Jones writes:
      > Dear Jim, Pat,
      >
      > I don't know if this settles anything or not but
      > here's the latest I can find on solar forcing.
      > These folks don't have the highest regard for the
      > IPCC ...of course at this stage of the game they
      > may be sucking for bucks so who knows what
      > Willson's editorial comment on the IPCC means. My
      > perception is that maybe the IPCC operates as the
      > ultimate precautionary principle.
      >
      > Tim
      >
      > http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/VariableSun/variable4.html
      > Why is such a small increase such a big deal?
      >
      > Climate change scientists may be willing
      > to let the solar physicists split hairs, however,
      > at least for now. "Whether the Sun's output has
      > increased by 0.05 percent per decade over the
      > past two solar cycles makes little difference to
      > climate," says Dr. Gerald North, first Study
      > Scientist for NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring
      > Mission, and a climate modeler with Texas A&M.
      > "With up to 95 percent confidence we can say that
      > changes in solar output of 0.1 percent over the
      > 11-year solar cycle produces a maximum increase
      > in temperature of two hundredths of a degree
      > (Kelvin), hardly significant in itself."
      >
      > Climate modeler Jim Hansen, of NASA's
      > Goddard Institute for Space Studies, agrees that
      > the climate impact of .05 percent per decade
      > would be practically non-existent if it were only
      > maintained for one decade. "If such a small
      > change were followed by no further change or a
      > decrease, it's not important," he says. "But if
      > that rate of change were maintained for a
      > century, it would be a change of 0.5 percent,
      > which would be very important. A half of a
      > percent change in solar output could raise
      > temperatures, eventually, about three-quarters of
      > a degree Celsius, which, coincidentally, roughly
      > equals the observed warming in the past century,"
      > says Hansen. The apparent coincidence is no
      > smoking gun, however. Because of their great heat
      > storage capacity, the Earth's oceans would buffer
      > any increase in the Sun's output for a long time.
      > "Nevertheless, the potential is there for the Sun
      > to be a significant player in the climate game,
      > at least over the long term," says Hansen, "which
      > is why we need to keep studying the issue."
      >
      > The controversy caused by the uncertainty over
      > the accuracy and reliability of various sensors
      > underscores the need for overlapping observations
      > that can be used for cross comparison. In pursuit
      > of that objective, NASA launched its Solar
      > Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) in
      > January 2003. Using a suite of four radiometers
      > that will measure more characteristics of the
      > Sun's output than have ever been observed before,
      > the mission will add its solar observations to
      > the ones currently being made by SOHO-VIRGO and
      > ACRIM3. "Previous sensors would experience drifts
      > in measurements caused by environmental
      > influences on the sensor-such as a change in
      > temperature of the whole spacecraft [and not just
      > the sensor itself] when it was exposed to the
      > Sun," explains Robert Cahalan, SORCE Project
      > Scientist. SORCE will use a new measurement
      > approach to filter out this background noise; it
      > will collect observations in short, regular
      > pulses rather than continuously-not giving
      > background noise a chance to interfere with the
      > signal. It will also be the first mission to
      > measure irradiance at the individual wavelengths
      > that account for 95 percent of the total solar
      > energy, rather than as one lump sum.
      >
      > Until more observations are collected, however,
      > we are left with controversy and the dependence
      > of difficult environmental decisions on our
      > imperfect understanding of the Sun and its
      > influence on climate. The question of whether
      > there is an overall upward trend in the Sun's
      > output over the last two decades becomes more
      > than a scientific debate when it steps out from
      > the pages of research journals and into the world
      > where individuals and societies are facing
      > difficult decisions about how to respond to
      > climate change.
      >
      > When asked how he felt about the possibility that
      > his results might be used as justification for
      > not doing anything to reduce greenhouse gas
      > emissions, Willson said, "It would be just as
      > wrong to take this one result and use it as a
      > justification for doing nothing as it is wrong to
      > force costly and difficult changes for greenhouse
      > gas reductions per the Kyoto Accords, whose
      > justification using the Intergovernmental Panel
      > on Climate Change reports was more political
      > science than real science."
      >
      > The potential for the findings to be used such a
      > way is something Lean has considered. "The fact
      > that some people could use Willson's results as
      > an excuse to do nothing about greenhouse gas
      > emissions is one reason we felt we needed to look
      > at the data ourselves," says Lean. "Since so much
      > is riding on whether current climate change is
      > natural or human-driven, it's important that
      > people hear that many in the scientific community
      > don't believe there is any significant long-term
      > increase in solar output during the last 20
      > years."
      > References:
      > Willson, R.C., and A.V. Mordvinov. (2003)
      > Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar
      > cycles 21-23. Geophysical Research Letters, 30
      > (5), 1199.
      > Frohlich, C., and J. Lean. (2002) Solar
      > irradiance variability and climate. Astronomische
      > Nachrichten 323: 203-212.
      > Related Links:
      > Composite Total Solar Irradiance Time Series (Willson &
      > Mordvinov)
      > http://www.acrim.com/Composite.htm
      > Construction of a Composite Total Solar
      > Irradiance Time Series from 1978 to present
      > (Fr´┐Żlich & Lean)
      >
      > Can Digging into the Details Settle this Debate?
      > Although small changes in total solar
      > irradiance may be insignifcant in the short term,
      > if the sun continues to change it could impact
      > the Earth's climate, perhaps amplifying or
      > counteracting global warming. Because of this,
      > the scientific debate over solar variability has
      > spilled over into politics. (Photograph copyright
      > Joe Klein, SkyChasers.net)
      >
      >
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