Failure to predict flooding: lessens not learned and a cover-up by NWS exposed
- National Weather Service (NWS) river forecasters and NWS supervisors
have NOT learned critical lessons from past flood disasters.
From a USA TODAY article (*Apr. 2007), NOAA NWS changed its
forecasting methods after flood disasters in Grand Forks and New Orleans.
"Our science, modeling and communication are better," ... "We learned
a lot in 1997", according to the Hydrologist In Charge (HIC) at the
NWS North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC).
The statements in USA TODAY by NWS officials were dishonest. I was a
senior hydrologist at the NWS NCRFC, located in Chanhassen MN, in 1997
- when Grand Forks ND flooded and burned.
Statements by NWS officials following the flood in 1997, and to USA
TODAY in 2007, which were intended to protect the reputation of the
agency and it's budget - misinformed the public on the real reasons
for the failed flood predictions by NWS in 1997.
The failure to predict in 1997 was due to poor NWS management of staff
resources at NCRFC. My experience and advise to management, as a
senior hydrologist at NWS NCRFC in 1997, were ignored. As a result,
the public was caught off-guard by the flooding and a NWS cover-up of
it's failures in hydrologic modeling and flood prediction began -
which continues to the present.
1. Cover-up by NWS on failure to predict flood
2. Refusal by NWS to provide education on climate change and
... "On March 23, 2005, you disrupted the Situational Awareness
session"... When I told you that I would not answer your question
regarding 1997" ...
... "On May 6, 2004, you said I was not doing my job, because I should
the general public about the issues concerning climate change. I told
when your boss tells you not to do something you do not do it." ...
From NWS NCRFC memorandum dated April 14, 2005:
U.S. Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Memorandum For: Patrick J. Neuman
Hydrologist, NCRFC, Chanhassen, MN
FROM: Daniel R. Luna
Hydrologist in Charge, NCRFC, Chanhassen, MN
Subject: Proposal to Remove
*Apr. 2007 USA TODAY article: "Weather forecasters learned lessons
from 1997 flood disaster in N.D."
Related article at TwinCities Indymedia:
Failures on flood prediction and climate change: a cover-up by NWS exposed