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Failure to predict flooding: lessens not learned and a cover-up by NWS exposed

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  • Pat Neuman
    National Weather Service (NWS) river forecasters and NWS supervisors have NOT learned critical lessons from past flood disasters. From a USA TODAY article
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 17, 2008
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      National Weather Service (NWS) river forecasters and NWS supervisors
      have NOT learned critical lessons from past flood disasters.

      From a USA TODAY article (*Apr. 2007), NOAA NWS changed its
      forecasting methods after flood disasters in Grand Forks and New Orleans.

      "Our science, modeling and communication are better," ... "We learned
      a lot in 1997", according to the Hydrologist In Charge (HIC) at the
      NWS North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC).

      --

      The statements in USA TODAY by NWS officials were dishonest. I was a
      senior hydrologist at the NWS NCRFC, located in Chanhassen MN, in 1997
      - when Grand Forks ND flooded and burned.

      Statements by NWS officials following the flood in 1997, and to USA
      TODAY in 2007, which were intended to protect the reputation of the
      agency and it's budget - misinformed the public on the real reasons
      for the failed flood predictions by NWS in 1997.

      The failure to predict in 1997 was due to poor NWS management of staff
      resources at NCRFC. My experience and advise to management, as a
      senior hydrologist at NWS NCRFC in 1997, were ignored. As a result,
      the public was caught off-guard by the flooding and a NWS cover-up of
      it's failures in hydrologic modeling and flood prediction began -
      which continues to the present.

      Evidence:

      1. Cover-up by NWS on failure to predict flood
      2. Refusal by NWS to provide education on climate change and
      hydrologic change

      ... "On March 23, 2005, you disrupted the Situational Awareness
      Training Meeting
      session"... When I told you that I would not answer your question
      regarding 1997" ...

      ... "On May 6, 2004, you said I was not doing my job, because I should
      be educating
      the general public about the issues concerning climate change. I told
      you that
      when your boss tells you not to do something you do not do it." ...

      From NWS NCRFC memorandum dated April 14, 2005:

      U.S. Department of Commerce
      National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
      National Weather Service

      Memorandum For: Patrick J. Neuman
      Hydrologist, NCRFC, Chanhassen, MN

      FROM: Daniel R. Luna
      Hydrologist in Charge, NCRFC, Chanhassen, MN

      Subject: Proposal to Remove

      ---

      *Apr. 2007 USA TODAY article: "Weather forecasters learned lessons
      from 1997 flood disaster in N.D."

      http://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2007-04-09-north-dakota-flood_N.htm


      http://npat.newsvine.com/_news/2008/02/17/1307073-failure-to-predict-flooding-lessens-not-learned-and-a-cover-up-by-nws-exposed

      --

      Related article at TwinCities Indymedia:

      Failures on flood prediction and climate change: a cover-up by NWS exposed

      http://twincities.indymedia.org/newswire/display/32881/index.php
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