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Input for The Global Warming Project submitted 2007 July 19

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  • Pat Neuman
    My input for The Global Warming Project submitted 2007 July 19 My year by year work summary and attachments (3) on my experience at NOAA from 2000 to 2005
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 6, 2008
      My input for The Global Warming Project submitted 2007 July 19

      My year by year work summary and attachments (3) on my experience at
      NOAA from 2000 to 2005 related to climate and hydrologic change while
      I was a Senior Hydrologist at the National Weather Service (NWS),
      North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) office in Chanhassen,
      Minnesota, by Patrick J. Neuman, residence in Chanhassen, Minnesota -
      July 18, 2007

      2000: Although I was aware that annual snowmelt in the Upper Midwest
      had been trending earlier nearly every spring during the 1990s, I
      became did not become convinced that the trend was due to global
      warming until my brother, Mike Neuman brought the subject of global
      warming up to me in early January of 2000. I then sent e-mail asking
      for information on global warming to people at the NOAA National
      Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and to people with the Environmental
      Protection Agency (EPA). I received an extensive amount of information
      from both NCDC and EPA during the first week of January. I watched
      CBS Evening News with Dan Rather interviews aired in mid-January with
      Dr. James Baker, director of NOAA. By late January I was firmly
      convinced that the trends I observed, as Snow, Ice and Water Supply
      Hydrologist at the NCRFC, were evidence that climate change was
      happening in the Upper Midwest and that the change was due to global
      warming. I wanted to inform others about my findings and conclusion.
      However, I was told by NWS supervisors not to mention global warming
      in my spring snowmelt flood outlook presentation at an inter-agency
      government planning meeting in January and I was told by NWS
      supervisors not to go to the Mall of America where a government
      services exposition was held in February. I was given two (2)
      suspensions in 2000. My grievance documentation was denied by NWS
      directors in headquarters for lacking in merit.

      2001: I was issued a third suspension by NWS supervisors saying
      disciplinary action was needed for the good of the service.

      2002: I asked former NWS director Jack Kelly, who is now Deputy
      Director in NOAA, why NWS did not consider climate change in its
      hydrologic modeling. I was uncertain regarding the content of his reply.

      2003: I gave a poster presentation titled "Earlier Seasonal Snowmelt
      Runoff in the Upper Midwest-Northern Great Plains" at a NWS Climate
      Prediction Center / Desert Research Institute conference near Reno,
      Nevada and I had a national press release (30 Oct. 2003) issued which
      identified my study and expressed my concerns on global warming.

      2004: I served a 14-day suspension which I was given for issuing the
      2003 press release.

      2005: I was removed from government service by NWS supervisors in July.

      Three (3) attachments included below:

      (1) U.S. Newswire Press Release, 30 Oct. 2003
      (2) August 11, 2004 E-mail to Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA Administrator
      (3) August 17, 2004 E-mail from Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA Administrator


      (1) U.S. Newswire Press Release

      Senior Scientist: Rapid Global Warming is Happening Now
      10/30/03 8:28:00 AM
      To: National Desk, Environment, Political, Transportation Reporter
      Contact: Patrick Neuman of the National Weather Service,
      952-906-2824, or Jack Saporito of the Alliance of Residents
      Concerning O'Hare, 847-506-0670

      CHICAGO, Oct. 30 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Following is a statement of
      Patrick Neuman, senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service

      An enormous number of well-documented findings on climate change by
      the world's most knowledgeable scientists are being put together ...
      like pieces to a giant puzzle.

      The picture is clear. Rapid global warming is happening now. Rapid
      global warming, by this author, means a climate that is warming much
      too quickly to allow adaptation by many species of plants and animals.

      Neuman just presented his findings on regional climate warming to
      colleagues at the NOAA 28th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction
      Workshop. The Workshop was sponsored by the NWS Climate Prediction
      Center, the Desert Research Institute, and the American Meteorological
      Society. Neuman's work was received with great concern by several
      Workshop participants.

      The paper with Neuman's findings is titled: "Earlier Seasonal Snowmelt
      Runoff in the Upper Midwest-Northern Great Plains". The area includes
      headwaters to Hudson Bay, the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River basin.

      Interestingly, the snowmelt runoff study was not based on air
      temperature data. Instead, daily river flows from the United States
      Geological Survey (USGS) were used to evaluate timing of spring
      snowmelt runoff over the last 100 years.

      The study shows that the beginning dates of spring snowmelt runoff
      have been occurring two to four weeks earlier now than occurred
      historically at USGS river stations analyzed in the study. Most
      significantly, the study shows an increase of much earlier snowmelt
      runoff from 1980 to current.

      We know that the cause of this rapid global warming is the heavy
      accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from massive
      emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation. Very
      damaging is the direct discharge of greenhouse gas emissions
      and secondary effects such as contrail effects, which are coming from
      commercial jet aviation, an industry that disregards the damage to the
      global environment and to human health.

      We know that global warming will continue for hundreds of years, and
      likely well beyond. What is uncertain now is whether the enormous
      amounts of greenhouse gases being emitted annually will continue to
      increase or decrease, and the specific time frames involved.

      Neuman stated, "We are already witness to conclusive evidence that
      human activities have caused rapid increases in temperatures in the
      United States and the world. We know the rate of warming is and will
      continue to be rapid. We just aren't sure how rapid, and
      exactly what impacts we face as a human race now responsible by our
      actions for the survival of all living species on Earth."

      Editors note: The figures and tables that go with the narrative are
      extremely important and telling of rapid regional climate warming in
      the Upper Midwest-Great Plains. The narrative for the Workshop and
      data can be found at:


      /© 2003 U.S. Newswire 202-347-2770/


      (2) August 11, 2004 E-mail to Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA

      August 11, 2004
      To Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.),
      Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and
      NOAA Administrator

      Dear Vice Admiral Lautenbacher,

      I plan to attend your presentation in Chanhassen, MN tomorrow. I am a
      senior hydrologist with the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC).

      I would appreciate your suggestions on if / how I might be able to
      continue work on hydrologic climate change in the Upper Midwest and
      Northern Great Plains, at the NWS NCRFC.

      I made a presentation on earlier snowmelt runoff in the Upper Midwest
      at a NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) / Desert Research Institute
      (DRI) workshop in October, 2003. Please view my work at the web site
      which follows, showing the material which I presented at the workshop:


      The final draft of my paper for my presentation at the CPC / DRI
      workshop was not acted upon by NWS Central Region. After returning
      from the workshop, I wanted others to view my work, so I arranged a 30
      October 2004 press release. I prepared a draft that included giving
      attention to my paper and my general comments on global warming, but I
      had no intention that the press release give an appearance of support
      by NWS. Changes were made by wire services after my final approval,
      which I did not approve of.

      Earlier this year, my supervisor Dan Luna,Hydrologist in Charge (HIC),
      regarding climate change, said: "That subject is not part of the
      NCRFC/NWS mission". I have shown that hydrologic climate change has
      already been occurring in the NCRFC area and therefore must be part of
      the NCRFC mission, in my view.

      In 2002 and 2003 I researched NWS cooperative climate data and flow
      data from the US Geological Survey. I used the results of my research
      in preparing my presentation for the CPC / DRI workshop.

      In 2000 and 2001, HIC Dean Braatz stated: "global warming was beyond
      the time window of our hydrologic forecast mission". The statement was
      supported by NWS directors in giving final approval to suspensions I
      received that were directly related to my efforts in hydrologic
      climate change and model needs. I provided Mr. Braatz and others with
      data showing trends for earlier snowmelt runoff in the Red River
      basin, which indicated that climate warming was in the time window for
      the NCRFC mission, in fact already occurring.

      Please reply at your convenience concerning this request for your
      suggestions on if / how I might be able to continue work on hydrologic
      climate change in the Midwest and Northern Great Plains, at the NCRFC.

      Pat Neuman
      NCRFC Senior Hydrologist
      Cc Ms. Dee L. Nelson, NOAA Alternative Dispute Resolution, Seattle, WA
      Ms. Nelson suggested that I write to Vice Admiral Conrad C.
      Lautenbacher on this matter, by voice mail to me on July 21, 2004.


      (3) August 17, 2004 E-mail from Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA

      From "Conrad C Lautenbacher" <Conrad.C.Lautenbacher@...>
      Date Tuesday, August 17, 2004 6:57 pm
      To Pat Neuman <Pat.Neuman@...>
      Cc Dee L Nelson <Dee.L.Nelson@...>
      Subject Re: Hydrologic climate change work in the NCRFC area


      Now that I have had a chance to review your paper, which appears to me
      as a noteworthy and scholarly addition to the body of scientific
      knowledge -- however, remember that peer reviewers on really the ones
      to go to for critical comments -- and a chance to look at your request
      in more detail, I have the following thoughts for you.

      First I encourage you to continue to do the best scientific work
      possible and to find outlets that are personally satisfying to you.

      Second, I really can't and do not want to try to interfere with what
      your supervisor assigns to you for work in support of his mission
      within the agency. There are avenues for you to discuss these issues
      within the chain of command and our organization.

      Third, I hope that you can come to terms with your work assignments
      whatever they may be or what they may or may not include.

      Finally, I appreciate your service and your contributions to NOAA and
      I hope that you will continue to gain personal satisfaction from being
      part of an organization that is so vital to the future!

      Best regards,
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