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Hansen's "Climate change and trace gases", Non-CO2 forcings text, link to complete report

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  • npat1
    6. Non-CO2 forcings If fossil fuel CO2 emissions continue to increase unabated, other climate forcings are relatively unimportant. However, this scenario is
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 31, 2007
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      6. Non-CO2 forcings

          If fossil fuel CO2 emissions continue to increase unabated, other
      climate forcings are relatively unimportant. However, this scenario is
      unlikely. Global warming is becoming apparent. Efforts to slow GHG
      emissions and stabilize global climate may increase. In this case,
      especially if the warming that constitutes 'danger' to the planet is
      as small as we estimate, non-CO2 forcings become very important.
      Indeed, because some further increase of CO2 is inevitable, it is
      probably implausible to keep additional global warming less than 1�C,
      unless non-CO2 forcings are addressed aggressively.

          Figure 8 summarizes known global climate forcings. Units are
      effective forcing in Wm-2 in 2000 relative to pre-industrial times.
      Well-established indirect effects are grouped with the primary
      forcing. The bases for these estimates are given by Hansen et al.

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