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Botched 2006 Atlantic hurricane forecasts

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  • npat1
    Excerpts: EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2006 By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M.
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 4, 2006
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      Excerpts:

      EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
      U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2006
      By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray

      We continue to foresee another very active Atlantic basin tropical
      cyclone season in 2006. Landfall probabilities for the 2006 hurricane
      season are well above their long-period averages. (4 April 2006)

      ABSTRACT

      Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the
      2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the
      average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9
      hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named
      storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5
      intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense
      hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major
      hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the
      long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone
      (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term
      average.

      Department of Atmospheric Science
      Colorado State University
      Fort Collins, CO

      Acknowledgment

      The second author gratefully acknowledges valuable input to his CSU
      research project over many years by former graduate students and now
      colleagues Chris Landsea, John Knaff and Eric Blake. We also thank
      Professors Paul Mielke and Ken Berry of Colorado State University for
      much statistical analysis and advice over many years.

      The second author would further like to acknowledge the encouragement
      he has received for this type of forecasting research application from
      Neil Frank, Robert Sheets, Robert Burpee, Jerry Jarrell, former
      directors of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and from the current
      director, Max Mayfield and their forecast staffs.

      (snip)

      http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/april2006/
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