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Climatologist Bruce Watson says global warming is real but expects global cooling soon

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  • npat1@juno.com
    ... From: npat1@juno.com To: Paleontology_and_Climate@yahoogroups.com Date: Fri, 2 Jan 2004 10:26:29 -0600 Subject: [P&C] Re: Promoting uncertainty when there
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 3, 2004
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      --------- Forwarded message ----------
      From: npat1@...
      To: Paleontology_and_Climate@yahoogroups.com
      Date: Fri, 2 Jan 2004 10:26:29 -0600
      Subject: [P&C] Re: Promoting uncertainty when there is no doubt is
      criminal
      Message-ID: <20040102.102629.-16329253.0.npat1@...>

      Hi Andy,

      Thanks for answering my request for information about the official UK
      position on global warming.

      As far as I know, the United States still has no position on global
      warming. Some not for profit organizations and many professional
      scientific groups have issued formal statements regarding global warming.

      However, the United States government to my knowledge has no formal
      position that U.S. citizens are aware of. Some U.S. government agencies
      make statements about climate variability and change, but many people
      find that it's impossible to figure out what is meant by that.

      This lack of an official position by the U.S. has opened the door to many
      quack climate scientists to get widespread media attention for telling
      their stories to the public, for a profit I suspect.

      For example, last night on the FOX TV Network I watched an interview
      with the Midwest's ' chief ' climatologist Bruce Watson. Watson said
      that global warming was real... then added that global climate has
      always gone through warming and cooling periods. He said that the causes
      of the latest warming are unknown. Then he said that he expects global
      cooling to start again soon, but didn't say why. In Sept or Oct of
      2003, Watson predicted a colder than 'normal' winter for the Midwest.
      December of 2003 in the Midwest was, again, much above normal for
      temperatures. Although next week is expected to be cold, another warm up
      is expected to follow. The winter of Dec 2003 through February of 2004
      will be another winter with above normal temperatures, without a doubt in
      my view.

      When the public, industry and government hear or read these way out
      Watson, et. al. explanations of climate and the unlikely climate
      scenarios for the future it is no wonder that the environmentalists
      speaking out to reduce greenhouse gas emissions get ridiculed and falsely
      accused of being unpatriotic.

      Pat





      On Fri, 2 Jan 2004 14:33:53 -0000 "Andy Mayhew" <andy@...>
      writes:
      > Hi Pat
      >
      > The following is from the introduction to the 'Indicators of Climate
      > Change
      > in the UK' - a government report produced by the Department for
      > Environment
      > Food and Rural Affairs.
      >
      > "Global warming is no longer a theory. Since the 1970s, the world
      > has warmed
      > by about 0.15 �C per decade, and 1998 was the warmest year on
      > record. In
      > England, four of the five warmest years in the 340-year record
      > occurred in
      > the last decade. These are startling statistics. The clear message
      > from the
      > scientific community is that this warming is due, at least in part,
      > to the
      > increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
      > The United Kingdom signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change
      > at Rio
      > in 1992, and, following the meeting of parties to the Convention in
      > Kyoto in
      > 1997, has set itself the challenging target to reduce greenhouse gas
      > emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. However, even if all
      > nations fulfill their Kyoto commitments, warming is likely to
      > continue. We
      > must, therefore, remain alert and be prepared for change. "
      >
      > http://www.nbu.ac.uk/iccuk/
      >
      > The then Minister for the Environment, Rt Hon Micheal Meacher MP,
      > also wrote
      > in the forward to this report:-
      >
      > "As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise we can expect more
      > climatic changes. Evidence of a changing climate strengthens the
      > already
      > overwhelming case for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. The UK
      > has
      > taken a leading role in negotiations to agree the Kyoto Protocol
      > under which
      > the European Union have a legally binding target to cut emissions by
      > 8%
      > against 1990 levels, of which we have a 12.5% share. We've also
      > taken on a
      > domestic goal to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20%. Although I
      > cannot
      > emphasise enough the need for action globally to tackle greenhouse
      > gas
      > emissions these indicators also suggest that we need to turn our
      > attention
      > to adapting to climate change."
      >
      > So, as you can see, the UK government believes GW is a real and
      > serious
      > threat, and that GHGs are the primary cause.
      >
      > The main institute for reseach into climate change is the Hadley
      > Centre,
      > part of the UK Met Office
      > http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/index.html with
      > further
      > reseach being carried out by the Climatic Research Unit at the
      > University of
      > East Anglia http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
      >
      > We, in the UK, are led (by our government and media) to beleive that
      > a
      > relatively small reduction in GHG emissions will solve all our
      > problems. I
      > don't believe that to be the case at all. I believe that there are
      > many
      > other factors involved, and that in any case it is vitually
      > impossible to
      > reduce GHG emissions sufficently so as to eliminate their influence.
      > Have
      > you tried telling everyone to stop driving their car lately?
      >
      > I think we've poked a little hole in the dam and now think we can
      > just bung
      > it up again and all will be well. But all we do is argue over how
      > big the
      > bung should be and who will contribute the resources for it. And
      > meanwhile
      > we're ignoring all the other holes that occured naturally - some of
      > which
      > may close naturally in time, but others? who knows.....
      >
      > Cheers
      > Andy
      >
      > UKWeatherWorld Executive
      > http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk
      >
      > MBA Newsletter Editor
      > http://www.mountainbothies.org
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: npat1@...
      > To: Paleontology_and_Climate@yahoogroups.com
      > Sent: Friday, January 02, 2004 1:02 PM
      > Subject: [P&C] Re: Promoting uncertainty when there is no doubt is
      > criminal
      >
      >
      > Andy,
      >
      > I'm not able to connect to Internet this morning.
      > I haven't checked on the Financial Times article yet.
      >
      > Is there an official statement on global warming by the UK?
      >
      > Is there a person viewed as most knowledgeable on climate?
      > What science discipline is considered authoritative on climate?
      >
      > Pat
      >
      > On Fri, 2 Jan 2004 12:02:00 -0000 "Andy Mayhew"
      > <andy@...>
      > writes:
      > > IMO the problem (certainly in the UK) is more one of overkill with
      > > the media
      > > attributing all and every weather to global warming. So pleased to
      > > see this
      > > article in the Financial Times which strikes a better balance:-
      > >
      > > "Was 2003 the year that global warming made itself unmistakably
      > > felt? Or is
      > > the perception that we are living in an age of extreme
      > temperatures,
      > > storms,
      > > floods and droughts merely a consequence of more monitoring and
      > > vivid
      > > television images?"
      > >
      > > "Global warming sceptics also point out that extreme weather events
      > > may be
      > > more common than we think. The devastating European floods of 2002,
      > > which
      > > caused irreparable damage to historic buildings, were not abnormal,
      > > according to work published in the journal Nature in September.
      > > Analysis of
      > > heavy floods in the past 1,000 years showed no evidence of "recent
      > > upward
      > > trends", said researchers from the University of Leipzig."
      > >
      > > "Another problem for those trying to detect the fingerprints of
      > > global
      > > warming is the difficulty of attributing any particular flood,
      > > drought or
      > > heatwave to climate change. At the heart of this issue is the
      > > distinction
      > > between weather - which is all that can ever be observed directly -
      > > and
      > > climate. "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get,"
      > said
      > > Edward
      > > Lorenz, an MIT atmospheric science researcher who in the late 1950s
      > > explained why weather is inherently unpredictable"
      > >
      > >
      >
      http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStor
      > y&c
      > > =StoryFT&cid=1071251842578
      > >
      > > GHC may well be contributing to GW, which in turn may be increasing
      > > the
      > > number of extreme weather events being experienced around the
      > world.
      > > But we
      > > should be cautious of blaming everything on GW and remember that
      > > such events
      > > have occurred repeatedly throughout history. Maybe today they are
      > > just a
      > > bit more frequent......
      > > .......or are we just nowadays made more aware of them?
      > >
      > > Cheers
      > > (and best wishes everyone for a peaceful 2004!)
      > >
      > > Andy
      > >
      > > UKWeatherWorld Executive
      > > http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk
      > >
      > > MBA Newsletter Editor
      > > http://www.mountainbothies.org
      > > ----- Original Message -----
      > > From: npat1@...
      > > To: Paleontology_and_Climate@yahoogroups.com
      > > Sent: Friday, January 02, 2004 12:39 AM
      > > Subject: [P&C] Promoting uncertainty when there is no doubt is
      > > criminal
      > >
      > >
      > > According to Mike Neuman, the practice by media of promoting two
      > > sides to
      > > the global
      > > warming issue is contributing to the fossil fuel industry's
      > > manipulation
      > > of the public consciousness, into believing global warming is not a
      > > problem, so people can keep
      > > driving their automobiles and flying everywhere they want to
      > travel.
      > >
      > > I agree. A specific case showing the media is promoting
      > uncertainty
      > > when
      > > there is no doubt is given below. There is no doubt that global
      > > warming
      > > is being driven primarily by fossil fuel emissions. Media are not
      > > giving
      > > the public the truth that the public needs to hear often - without
      > > hesitation or other gestures of doubt or foolishness.
      > >
      > > From 30 December, 2003 Minneapolis Star Tribune:
      > > > Paul Douglas
      > > > .. worldwide this year ...
      > > > A string of 100-degree days in Europe may have led to the
      > > > deaths of 20,000 to 25,000 people. That was the greatest
      > > > weather-related tragedy. Second on the list was flooding
      > > > along the Huai and Yangtze rivers in China that destroyed
      > > > 650,000 apartments.
      > > > Whether the climate is really more vulnerable to swings in
      > > > moisture or whether we're just more vulnerable to swings
      > > > in moisture and temperatures remains up for debate.
      > > >
      > > > Mobile My-Cast founder Paul Douglas is the WCCO-TV4Warn
      > > > Storm Team's chief meteorologist.
      > >
      > > Weather fact : .. also in 30 December Minneapolis Star Tribune:
      > > > Statistics gathered by the World Health Organization
      > > > show that heat waves accounted for the two deadliest
      > > > weather-related disasters in the United States over the
      > > > past decade and three of the top five.
      > >
      > > Pat Neuman
      > > United States citizen
      > >
      ________________________________________________________________

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