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    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP October 5, 2006 Synopsis: El Niño conditions are likely to
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 6 6:03 PM
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      issued by
      October 5, 2006

      Synopsis: El Ni�o conditions are likely to continue into early 2007.

      Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies greater than +0.5�C were observed in
      most of the equatorial Pacific, with anomalies exceeding +1.0�C
      between 165�E and 165�W and in several areas east of 150�W (Fig. 1).
      The latest SST departures in the Ni�o regions are all greater than
      +0.5 (Fig. 2). Beginning in February the basin-wide upper ocean heat
      content increased, and since early April positive anomalies have been
      observed (Fig. 3). Since early July weaker-than-average low-level
      equatorial easterly winds have been observed across most of the
      equatorial Pacific. In September the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
      was negative for the fifth consecutive month. Collectively, these
      oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with the early stages
      of El Ni�o in the tropical Pacific.

      Over the past several months most of the statistical and coupled model
      forecasts have trended towards warmer conditions in the tropical
      Pacific through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The latest NCEP
      coupled forecast system (CFS) predictions indicate El Ni�o conditions
      for the remainder of 2006 and into the NH spring (SH fall) 2007 (Fig.
      4). More than two-thirds of the other statistical and coupled model
      predictions also indicate El Ni�o conditions during the same period
      (Fig. 5).

      Typical El Ni�o effects are likely to develop over North America
      during the upcoming winter season, including warmer-than-average
      temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and
      northern United States, wetter-than-average conditions over portions
      of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and drier-than-average conditions
      in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest. Global effects that can
      be expected during November-March include drier-than-average
      conditions over most of Malaysia, Indonesia, some of the U.S.-
      affiliated islands in the tropical North Pacific, northern South
      America and southeastern Africa, and wetter-than-average conditions
      over equatorial East Africa, central South America (Uruguay,
      northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil) and along the coasts of
      Ecuador and northern Peru.

      This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded
      institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly
      on the Climate Prediction Center website (El Ni�o/La Ni�a Current
      Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El
      Ni�o/La Ni�a are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of
      CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics
      Discussion is scheduled for 9 November 2006. To receive an e-mail
      notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are
      released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-

      Climate Prediction Center
      National Centers for Environmental Prediction
      NOAA/National Weather Service
      Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304



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