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Yelling 'Fire' on a Hot Planet

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  • Pat Neuman
    ... wrote: Yelling Fire on a Hot Planet Source: Copyright 2006, New York Times Date: April 23, 2006 Byline: ANDREW C. REVKIN GLOBAL
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 23, 2006
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      --- In fuelcell-energy@yahoogroups.com, "janson2997"
      <janson1997@...> wrote:

      Yelling 'Fire' on a Hot Planet


      Source: Copyright 2006, New York Times
      Date: April 23, 2006
      Byline: ANDREW C. REVKIN


      GLOBAL warming has the feel of breaking news these days.

      Polar bears are drowning; an American city is underwater; ice sheets
      are crumbling. Time magazine proclaimed that readers should be
      worried. Very worried. There are new hot-selling books and a batch
      of
      documentaries, including one starring former Vice President Al Gore
      and his climate-evangelist slide show that is touted as "the most
      terrifying movie you will ever see."

      Are humans like frogs in a simmering pot, unaware that temperatures
      have reached the boiling point? Or has global warming been spun into
      an "alarmist gale," as Richard S. Lindzen, a climatologist at M.I.T.
      wrote in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed article?

      There is enough static in the air to simultaneously confuse, alarm
      and paralyze the public. Is global warming now a reality? What do
      scientists know for sure and when are they just guessing?

      And what can truly be accomplished by changing behavior? After all,
      there are still the traditional calls to limit heat-trapped
      greenhouse-gas emissions, but a growing number of experts are also
      saying what was once unthinkable: humans may have to adapt to a
      warmer globe.

      Here, an attempt to shed a little light in all the heat.

      What We Know

      Between the poles of real-time catastrophe and nonevent lies the
      prevailing scientific view: without big changes in emissions rates,
      global warming from the buildup of greenhouse gases is likely to
      lead
      to substantial, and largely irreversible, transformations of
      climate,
      ecosystems and coastlines later this century.

      The Earth's average surface temperature rose about 1 degree over the
      20th century, to around 59 degrees, but the rate of warming from the
      1970's until now has been three times the average rate of warming
      since 1900. Seas have risen about six to eight inches globally over
      the last century and the rate of rise has increased in the last
      decade.

      In 2001, a large team of scientists issued the latest assessment of
      climate change and concluded that more than half of the recent
      warming was likely to have been caused by people, primarily because
      we're adding tens of billions of tons of carbon dioxide and other
      long-lived greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly by burning
      coal
      and oil.

      There is no serious debate any more about one thing: more of these
      gases will cause more warming. Dr. Lindzen, who contends any human
      climate influence is negligible and has long criticized those
      calling
      global warming a catastrophe, agreed on this basic fact in his
      article.

      At the same time, few scientists agree with the idea that the recent
      spate of potent hurricanes, European heat waves, African drought and
      other weather extremes are, in essence, our fault. There is more
      than
      enough natural variability in nature to mask a direct connection,
      they say.

      Even recent sightings of drowned polar bears cannot be firmly
      ascribed to human influence on climate given the big cyclical
      fluctuations of sea ice around the Arctic.

      What Is Debated

      The unresolved questions concern the pace and extent of future
      warming and the impact on wildlife, agriculture, disease, local
      weather and the height of the world's oceans — in other words, all
      of
      the things that matter to people.

      The latest estimates, including a study published last week in the
      journal Nature, foresee a probable warming of somewhere around 5
      degrees should the concentration of carbon dioxide reach twice the
      280-parts-per-million figure that had been the norm on earth for at
      least 400,000 years. This is far lower than some of the apocalyptic
      projections in recent years, but also far higher than mild warming
      rates focused on by skeptics and industry lobbyists.

      As a result, by 2100 or so, sea levels could be several feet higher
      than they are now, and the new normal on the planet for centuries
      thereafter could be retreating shorelines as Antarctic and Greenland
      ice sheets relentlessly erode.

      Rivers fed by mountain glaciers, including those nourishing much of
      south Asia, could shrivel. Grand plans to restore New Orleans and
      the
      Everglades would be rendered meaningless as seawater advances.
      Manhattan would become New Orleans — a semi-submerged city
      surrounded
      by levees. In summers, polar bears would be stuck on the few
      remaining ice-clotted shores around the largely blue Arctic Ocean.

      Projections of how patterns of drought, deluges, heat and cold might
      change are among the most difficult, and will remain laden with huge
      uncertainties for a long time to come, said M. Granger Morgan, a
      physicist and policy expert at Carnegie Mellon University in
      Pittsburgh.

      For example, while computer simulations of the climate consistently
      show that the centers of big continents are likely to grow drier,
      and
      winters and nights generally warmer, they cannot reliably predict
      conditions in Chicago or Shanghai.

      By the clock of geology, this climate shift is unfolding at a
      dizzying, perhaps unprecedented pace, but by time scales relevant to
      people, it's happening in slow motion. If the bad stuff doesn't
      happen for 100 years or so, it's hard to persuade governments or
      voters to take action.

      And there is the rub. Many scientists say that to avoid a doubling
      of
      carbon dioxide concentrations, energy efficiency must be increased
      drastically, and soon. And by midcentury, they add, there must be a
      complete transformation of energy technology. That may be why some
      environmentalists try to link today's weather to tomorrow's problem.
      While scientists say they lack firm evidence to connect recent
      weather to the human influence on climate, environmental campaigners
      still push the notion.

      "The issue clearly has an urgency problem," said Billy Parish, a
      founder of Energy Action, a coalition of student groups. "Maybe I'm
      just a paranoid that sees global warming everywhere, but the here-
      and-
      now effects do seem to be mounting, and I think we need to connect
      the dots for people."

      A Gallup survey last month shows that people are still not worried
      about climate change. When participants were asked to rank 10
      environmental problems, global warming was near the bottom, far
      below
      water pollution and toxic waste (both now largely controlled).

      Without a connection to current disasters, global warming is the
      kind
      of problem people, and democratic institutions, have proved
      singularly terrible at solving: a long-term threat that can only be
      limited by acting promptly, before the harm is clear.

      Problems that get attention are "soon, salient and certain," said
      Helen Ingram, a professor of planning, policy and design at the
      University of California, Irvine.

      Stressing the problem's urgency could well be counterproductive,
      according to "Americans and Climate Change," a new book by the Yale
      School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.

      The book notes that urgency does not appear to be something that can
      be imposed on people. Moreover, it says, "Urgency is especially
      prone
      to being discounted as unreasoned alarmism or even passion."

      Among its recommendations, the Yale book suggests something radical:
      drop the reluctance to accept adaptation as a strategy. Adaptation
      to
      climate extremes has long been derided by many environmentalists as
      defeatism. But, the book says, adaptation may help people focus on
      the reality of what is coming — and that may motivate them to cut
      emissions to limit chances of bigger changes to come.

      Actions could range from developing drought-resistant crops to
      eliminating federal insurance and other subsidies that have long
      encouraged coastal development.

      Could stressing adaptation work? The Yale group calls global
      warming "the perfect problem" — meaning that a confluence of
      characteristics make it hard, if not impossible, to solve. Its
      impact
      remains clouded with scientific uncertainty, its effects will be
      felt
      over generations, and it is being amplified by everything from
      microwaving a frozen dinner to bringing electricity to an Indian
      village.

      "I wish I were more optimistic of our ability to get a broad slice
      of
      the public to understand this and be motivated to act," said David
      G.
      Hawkins, who directs the climate program at the Natural Resources
      Defense Council, a private group.

      In an e-mail message, he wrote: "We are sensory organisms; we
      understand diesel soot because we can smell it and see it. Getting
      global warming is too much of an intellectual process. Perhaps
      pictures of drowning polar bears (which we are trying to find) will
      move people but even there, people will need to believe that those
      drownings are due to our failure to build cleaner power plants and
      cars."

      http://www.ecoearth.info/articles/reader.asp?linkid=55494

      j2997

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