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Input "Of paramount importance" not seriously considered by NOAA-NWS

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  • npat1@juno.com
    Input by Patrick J. Neuman, Senior Hydrologist, sent June 5, 2003 for consideration in the NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008 not considered by
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 17, 2003
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      Input by Patrick J. Neuman, Senior Hydrologist, sent June 5, 2003 for
      consideration in the NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008 not
      considered by NOAA-NWS.

      Excerpt from NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008:
      ... GOAL 2: Understand climate variability and change
      ... to enhance society's ability to plan and respond.

      Input shown below NOT given serious consideration:
      - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
      Add - "Of paramount importance is to greatly increase the application
      of climate information and knowledge to aid in the preparations
      for rapidly warming U.S. regional climates having increasing
      frequencies and extremes of excessive heat and humidity for
      longer periods of time, with the greatest extremes in the city
      environments where the majority of U.S. citizens live."

      ..... was based on Exhibits A, B, and C provided below, and on
      extensive physical evidence that rapid regional climate warming
      within the United States is taking place, with full understanding that
      weather and climate variability has taken place during the past and
      will continue to take place during the future, but that extensive
      evidence indicates that the variability in climate in the future will
      take
      place on an inclined plane with increasing overall temperatures and
      humidity in the atmosphere, and with warmer lakes, rivers, oceans,
      and land areas.

      Patrick J. Neuman,
      Senior Hydrologist, NWS NCRFC
      Sent on 5 June 2003 to NOAA-NWS

      Exhibit A

      Report: Cities Warming Faster Than Rural Areas Across U.S.
      "As reported in the April issue of the journal "Environmental Health
      Perspectives" (Vol. 111, No. 4), U.S. cities average 10 more hot
      summer nights -- classified as above 70 degrees F in the East,
      South, and Midwest, and above 80 degrees F in the Southwest --than
      they did 40 years ago. Nationwide in the U.S., there has been a 300%
      greater rate of warming in cities than in the rural countryside,
      according to a study by Arthur DeGaetano, associate professor of
      Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University, and Robert
      J. Allen, then a research support specialist at the university.

      The study, which originally appeared in the November 2002 issue of
      the "Journal of Climate", analyzed historical data on daily high and
      low temperatures from 361 weather stations across the United States
      from 1910 to 1996, adjusting for omissions, differences in observation
      times and other discontinuities, and using the hottest 10%, 5%, and
      1% of all the daily high or low temperatures recorded by a station over
      its period of operation.

      For the period 1960-1996, the pair found that 75% of stations showed an
      average increase in both hot summer days and hot summer nights. The
      rate of warming was greatest in the East and least in the central
      section.
      The results also showed that cities are warming at more than triple the
      rate of rural locales.
      http://danenet.wicip.org/bcp/neuman_gw.pdf
      http://danenet.danenet.org/bcp/shp.html

      "The ultimate test of man's conscience may be his willingness to
      sacrifice something today for future generations whose words of thanks
      will not be heard."
      - Gaylord Nelson, Earth Day founder.
      provided with approval from author Michael T. Neuman,
      U.S. citizen, Madison, WI, report available at:
      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ClimateArchive/message/212

      Exhibit B.

      "Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on
      our Communities and Ecosystems". Citation: Kling,G.W., K.Hayhoe,
      L.B.Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S.Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J.Shutter,
      M.M.Wander, D.J.Wuebbles, D.R.Zak, R.L.Lindroth, S.C.Moser, and
      M.L. Wilson (2003).
      Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on
      our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,
      Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America,
      Washington, D.C.

      Excerpts from the Report: "What is the likely climate future for the
      Great Lakes region?"

      "In general, the climate of the Great Lakes region will grow warmer and
      probably drier during the twenty-first century. Climate models predict
      that
      by the end of the century, temperatures in the region will warm by 5 to
      12�F (3 to 7�C) in winter, and 5 to 20�F (3 to 11 �F) in summer.
      Nighttime
      temperatures are likely to warm more than daytime temperatures, and
      extreme heat will be more common." ... " In addition, the frequency of
      24-hour and multiday downpours, and thus flooding, may continue to
      increase." http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes

      Additional Information related to Exhibit B. The authors met with the
      public in Madison, Wisconsin in April, 2003. People were encouraged to
      act now in support of the findings in the April, 2003 report. One of
      the authors is Dr. John J. Magnuson, Emeritus Professor of Zoology and
      past Director of the Center for Limnology at the University of
      Wisconsin-Madison. Dr. Magnuson authored more than 350 publications
      and five books, with research in long-term fisheries ecology,
      biodiversity,
      species invasions, and the effects of climate change and variability on
      inland waters. Dr. Magnuson earned his Ph.D from University of British
      Columbia, Canada, in zoology with a minor in oceanography.

      Exhibit C.

      "Waters of Wisconsin - the future of our aquatic ecosystems and
      resources". Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin Academy of Sciences,
      Arts and Letters. WASAL. 2003. Co-chairs of Waters of Wisconsin
      Committee:Stephen Born,University of Wisconsin-Madison, Patricia
      Leavenworth, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service,
      Madison, Wisconsin, John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin
      Madison (emeritus).

      Excerpts from "Waters of Wisconsin Report: ... "Evidence of climate
      change can be found in Wisconsin's waters as well. The effects of
      warming can be seen in ice-cover changes on Lake Mendota; "..."More
      important, the trend indicates that aquatic ecosystems are responding
      to the warming.

      Other changes are apparent in Wisconsin's water. Groundwater levels,
      stream baseflows, and seepage lake levels (lakes with no inflow or
      outflow streams) have risen abruptly since 1970 in most of Wisconsin.
      Groundwater levels have been rising in most areas where groundwater
      withdrawal is relatively limited. These increases may reflect either
      long-term climate change or a shorter-term wet cycle; both could
      account for greater recharge. Climate change can lead to increased
      recharge rates by increasing the amount of precipitation or by altering
      its timing (recharge increases when more rain falls during the autumn
      and early winter, when evapotranspiration rates are low and the ground
      is not frozen). The rise in water levels may also reflect improvements
      in land management; however, the abruptness of the recent changes
      suggests that it involves a combination of improved land management
      and climate change (Magnuson et. al in press)."

      The draft Strategic Plan used for comment was provided in the
      5/12/03 NWS Focus Newsletter.

      Patrick J. Neuman
      Hydrologist, Chanhassen, MN
      NWS NCRFC Date sent: June 5, 2003 "

      Additional links:
      --------------------------------
      NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (about 30 pages):
      http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/LO%20Strat%20Plans%202003%20Final/newnwssp%2
      010-01-03%20final.pdf

      NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (1 page short version):
      http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/onepager.pdf

      NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (18 page coffee table) long download:

      http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/NOAAStrategicHIRES.pdf

      NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (long version):
      http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/FinalMarch31st.pdf

      RELATED STUDY - PAPER, Presented at NOAA-NWS-Climate Workshop
      in Reno,NV Oct 2003
      -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      -------------------------
      Powerful evidence of rapid global warming in the Midwest & Great Plains
      -------------------------------------------------------------------------
      -------------------------
      I prepared a paper & presented it at the NOAA-National Weather
      Service-Climate Prediction Center Workshop in Reno, Nevada, 22 October
      2003. I took pictures on the way back to Minnesota. Links to large
      pictures and my paper on Earlier Snowmelt Runoff for rivers in
      Minnesota,Wisconsin & North Dakota are listed below.

      The paper shows definite climate warming trends for earlier snowmelt
      runoff and increasing dewpoints in the Upper Midwest and Northern Great
      Plains. The data for the paper includes 100 years of daily river
      discharges - high quality United States Geological Survey mean daily flow
      data - and average monthly & annual dewpoints and air temperatures - 50
      years of dewpoints & 100 years of air temperatures.

      My paper on Earlier Snowmelt Runoff, including text, figures, & data are
      on the Minnesotan's For Sustainability website, accessed by the link at:
      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ClimateArchive/message/264

      Earlier Snowmelt Runoff paper and images of Fossil Butte & Green River
      Formation:
      Large image of my poster as it was presented at the Reno workshop in
      October 2003:
      http://cleveland.indymedia.org/news/2003/11/7204.php
      http://www.ucimc.org/newswire/display/14091/index.php
      http://arizona.indymedia.org/news/2003/11/13572.php

      Pat Neuman Sunday November 16, 2003 12:45 PM
      http://la.indymedia.org/news/2003/11/94717.php
      npat1@...
      Chanhassen, Minnesota

      Similar articles at:
      http://ontario.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=24546&group=webcast
      http://dc.indymedia.org/newswire/display/84920/index.php
      http://nyc.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=81681&group=webcast

      Pat
      MN


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