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Re: CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE AT THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES - Mar. 2006

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  • Pat Neuman
    More feedback sent to National Acadamies on subject AHPS in 2004. ====================== Feedback submitted to:
    Message 1 of 2 , Mar 3 8:19 PM
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      More feedback sent to National Acadamies on subject AHPS in 2004.

      ======================

      Feedback submitted to:
      http://www4.nationalacademies.org/webfdbk.nsf/Feedback?OpenForm&WSTB-
      U-03-05-A

      08/21/2004
      Project Identification Number: -- WSTB-U-03-05-A
      Subject: AHPS
      From: pat.neuman@...

      Excerpt:

      ... I think this article is very important ...
      http://www.sacbee.com/content/news/vprint/story/10397394p-
      11317084c.html  ... Ongoing warm-up hikes chances of spring floods and shrinking supply of water from snowpack.

      Excerpt:

      > Pat Neuman wrote:
      >
      > > August 11, 2004
      > >
      > > Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.),
      > > Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and
      > > NOAA Administrator
      > >
      > > Dear Vice Admiral Lautenbacher,
      > >
      > > I plan to attend your presentation in Chanhassen, MN tomorrow.
      > > I am a senior hydrologist with the North Central River Forecast
      > > Center (NCRFC).
      > >
      > > I would appreciate your suggestions on if / how I might be able to continue work on hydrologic climate change in the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains, at the NWS NCRFC.
      > >
      > > I made a presentation on earlier snowmelt runoff in the Upper
      > > Midwest at a NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) / Desert Research Institute (DRI) workshop in October, 2003.  Please view my work at the web site which follows, showing the material which I
      > > presented at the workshop:
      > >
      >

      http://www.mnforsustain.org/climate_snowmelt_dewpoints_minnesota_neuman.h
      tm
      > >
      > > The final draft of my paper for my presentation at the CPC / DRI
      > > workshop was not acted upon by NWS Central Region.
      > > After returning from the workshop, I wanted others to view my work, so I arranged a 30 October 2004 press release. I prepared a draft that included giving attention to my paper and my general comments on global warming, but I had no intention that the press release give an appearance of support by NWS. Changes were made by wire services after my final approval, which I did not approve of.
      > >
      > > Earlier this year, my supervisor Dan Luna,Hydrologist in Charge
      > (HIC), regarding climate change, said: "That subject is not part of the NCRFC/NWS mission?.  I have shown that hydrologic climate change has already been occurring in the NCRFC area and therefore must be part of the NCRFC mission, in my view.
      > >
      > > In 2002 and 2003 I researched NWS cooperative climate data and
      > > flow data from the US Geological Survey.  I used the results of
      > > my research in preparing my presentation for the CPC / DRI
      > workshop.
      > >
      > > In 2000 and 2001, HIC Dean Braatz stated: "global warming was
      > > beyond the time window of our hydrologic forecast mission".  The
      > > statement was supported by NWS directors in giving final approval
      > > to suspensions I received that were directly related to my efforts in hydrologic climate change and model needs.  I provided Mr.
      > > Braatz and others with data showing trends for earlier snowmelt
      > > runoff in the Red River basin, which indicated that climate
      > > warming was in the time window for the NCRFC mission, in fact
      > > already occurring.
      > >
      > > Please reply at your convenience concerning this request for
      > > your suggestions on  if / how I might be able to continue work
      > > on hydrologic climate change in the Midwest and Northern Great
      > > Plains, at the NCRFC.
      > >
      > > Sincerely,
      > >
      > > Pat Neuman
      > > NCRFC Senior Hydrologist
      > >
      > > Cc Ms. Dee L. Nelson, NOAA Alternative Dispute Resolution,
      > Seattle, WA
      > > Ms. Nelson suggested that I write to Vice Admiral Conrad C.
      > > Lautenbacher on this matter, by voice mail to me on July 21, 2004.
      >

       

      08/31/2004
      Project Identification Number: -- WSTB-U-03-05-A

      http://www4.nationalacademies.org/webfdbk.nsf/Feedback?OpenForm&WSTB-
      U-03-05-A

      Excerpt:

      ----- Original Message -----
      From "Pat Neuman" <Pat.Neuman@...>
      Date Mon, 30 Aug 2004 19:43:18 +0000

      Subject Comments to the public on global warming

      This morning I heard a National Weather Service employee make light
      of whether or not global warming is real, while talking to a rainfall
      observer by phone.

      The work that I presented on hydrologic change in the Upper Midwest
      at the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center conference last October in
      Reno, Nevada shows that climate change has already had significant
      effects on the timing of spring snowmelt runoff in the NCRFC area of
      responsibility.

      Earlier this year, and in 2003, I heard staff from NWS offices in
      Chanhassen, Chicago and Detroit say NWS has been telling the public
      there is no global warming.

      I think people at higher levels in NWS and NOAA need to be informed
      that NWS employees continue to convey a message to the public that
      global warming may not be a reality. Please provide this message to higher levels in NWS and NOAA.

      Thank you.

      Pat


      We very much appreciate your interest in the project and will take
      your communciation under advisement. Thank you.

      Sincerely, Dev Mani, Assistant Executive Officer, National Research
      Council
      -

      =================

      Pat N

      --- In Paleontology_and_Climate@yahoogroups.com,

      "Mike Neuman" <mtneuman@...> wrote:

      Sonya posted:

      "The report, "Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
      (AHPS)" did not directly purport to include climate change in its
      assessment."

      It should have. That's the problem Pat is talking about. The feds
      continued to ignore the obviously warming climate - brought on by
      anthropogenic global warming - despite trained and highly experienced
      hydrologists such as Pat pointing it out to them from the highest
      level of the U.S. government (Office of the President) on down
      (regional level of the National Weather Service).

      Mike Neuman

      --- In Paleontology_and_Climate@yahoogroups.com, "npat1" npat1@
      wrote:
      >
      > Re: CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE AT THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES - March
      2006]
      >
      > The National Academies (NA) new report* is inadequate on climate
      change and hydrology. It fails to serve in the public interest.
      >
      > There is nothing in the NA report on the effects of climate change
      on hydrology in the US, and there is nothing in the NA report on the
      absence of climate change considerations by National Weather Service
      (NWS) AHPS hydrologic modeling for use in flood and drought
      predictions by NWS.
      >
      > * NA report titled "Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
      Service (AHPS)": Mar 2006
      >
      > Furthermore, a June 23, 2004 statement (below) which was sent to
      the NA for consideration in their report was not addressed in the NA
      report on NWS AHPS.
      >
      > The June 23, 2004 statement to The National Academies states:
      >
      > "NOAA Administrators (John Mahoney and Jack Kelly), National Weather
      > Service(NWS) directors in headquarters, NWS Central Region
      directors,
      > and my local supervisor at NOAA NWS North Central River Forecast
      > Center(NCRFC) in Chanhassen, MN, Daniel R. Luna are not allowing me
      to do work related to the changing climate in the Upper Midwest. I
      have concluded that consideration and modeling to account for changes
      in the climatology and hydrology of the Upper Midwest due to climate
      warming is very important in carrying out our duties in serving in
      the public interest, at NCRFC."
      >
      > ...
      >
      > "I continue to encounter very serious difficulty at work resulting
      from my study and other efforts dealing with the changes in the
      climatology and hydrology within the Upper Midwest due to climate
      warming."
      >
      > and:
      >
      > * Article on snowmelt and dewpoints in the Upper Midwest:
      >
      http://www.mnforsustain.org/climate_snowmelt_dewpoints_minnesota_neuma
      n.htm
      >
      > The National Academies report (p. 13) states:
      >
      > "The study will review the new program of NOAA's National Weather
      Service, known as "Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)".
      The study will assess the full scope of the program, aimed at
      improving the nation's river forecasts, in respect to hydrologic
      science and technology research," ...
      >
      > The National Academies failed to address climate change in its
      review of NWS AHPS. Thus, The National Academies report on NWS AHPS
      has failed to serve in public interest.
      >
      > Pat Neuman
      > Chanhassen, MN
      >
      > -------------- Forwarded Message --------------
      >
      > To National Academies
      >
      > From Pat Neuman, self only
      > npat1@
      >
      > June 23, 2004
      >
      > I sent the message below by e-mail to National Academies on June 18,
      > 2004.
      >
      > My question is:
      >
      > Is there a possibility that National Academies will be able to
      assist
      > me in dealing with the adverse conditions I described below?
      >
      > Please contact me about whether or not National Academies is able to
      > assist me in dealing with this.
      >
      > Sincerely,
      >
      > Pat Neuman
      >
      > Re: Climate change
      > npat1@
      >
      > Dev Mani, Assistant Executive Officer, National Research Council
      >
      > Dear Dev Mani,
      >
      > My primary background is hydrology. I have 28 years experience in
      > hydrologic modeling and surface water prediction. I have a MS
      degree from the University of Wisconsin, Madison (1975) in Water
      Resources Management Program with special study in Civil Engineering.
      >
      > In January of 2000 I began investigating changes in climatological
      and
      > hydrologic data within the Upper Midwest. I concluded that changes
      in
      > the timing of spring snowmelt were happening earlier in the season.
      I
      > could see that the changing climate was important in my work in
      > hydrologic modeling and prediction of rivers in the Midwest for
      public safety and protection of property.
      >
      > NOAA Administrators (John Mahoney and Jack Kelly), National Weather
      > Service(NWS) directors in headquarters, NWS Central Region
      directors,
      > and my local supervisor at NOAA NWS North Central River Forecast
      > Center(NCRFC) in Chanhassen, MN, Daniel R. Luna are not allowing me
      to do work related to the changing climate in the Upper Midwest. I
      have concluded that consideration and modeling to account for changes
      in the climatology and hydrology of the Upper Midwest due to climate
      warming is very important in carrying out our duties in serving in
      the public interest, at NCRFC.
      >
      > Most of my studies on the changing climatology and hydrology in the
      > Midwest and northern Great Plains have been on my own time, away
      from
      > the office. I wrote articles that identify the increases in mean
      > temperatures and dewpoints within the Midwest, and an article that
      > identifies trends for earlier in the year snowmelt runoff at three
      > major river stations in the Upper Midwest / northern Great Plains.
      >
      > Two of my articles are located at the Minnesotans For Sustainability
      > website, at: http://www.mnforsustain.org
      >
      > I continue to encounter very serious difficulty at work resulting
      from
      > my study and other efforts dealing with the changes in the
      climatology
      > and hydrology within the Upper Midwest due to climate warming.
      >
      > If you have interest in my work on climate warming and hydrology
      > within the Midwest or if you can provide assistance to me in
      dealing with the adverse conditions I'm experiencing at work
      resulting from not being able to pursue the study of climate change
      and important factors related to my responsibility in hydrologic
      modeling and prediction please contact me (ASAP).
      >
      > Sincerely,
      >
      > Patrick Neuman
      >
      > Senior Hydrologist
      > NOAA NWS NCRFC
      > Chanhassen, MN
      >
      > (snipped my home and work
      > phone numbers & addresses)
      >
      >
      > -- Forwarded Message , June 23, 2004 reply from The National
      Academies
      > -------------------
      > Current Projects
      >
      > We very much appreciate your interest in the project and will take
      > your communication under advisement. Thank you.
      >
      > Sincerely, Dev Mani, Assistant Executive Officer, National Research
      > Council
      > -------------------------------
      > http://www.nationalacademies.org/cgi-bin/formfeed.cgi
      > ---------------------------------------------
      >
      > -------- Original Message --------
      > Subject: CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE AT THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES -
      March 2006
      > Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2006 08:47:09 -0500
      > From: globalchange globalchange@
      > To: globalchange globalchange@
      >
      > Climate and Global Change at the National Academies – March 2006
      >
      > Dear Colleague,
      >
      > We are pleased to present you with Climate and Global Change at the
      National Academies; a monthly update highlighting activities related
      to climate and associated global changes from throughout the
      National Academies. Additional information on these and other
      activities is also available at http://dels.nas.edu/globalchange/
      >
      > Table of Contents:
      >
      > 1. New Report
      >
      > 2. New Projects
      >
      > 2. Upcoming Meetings
      >
      > 3. Ongoing Activities
      >
      > New Report
      >
      > Toward a New Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
      >
      > The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for providing
      flood forecasts and warnings in the United States. The agency
      established the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)
      program in 1997 to advance technology for hydrologic services,
      specifically to provide accurate forecasts that support timely
      warnings for all users of hydrologic predictions. AHPS strives to
      provide information at the right time to facilitate adequate
      responses to mitigate damages to life, livelihoods, and property.
      AHPS is slated to be fully implemented nationwide in 2013. With
      seven years still remaining in its development and implementation
      timeline, a review of the program now is critical to providing NWS
      with information it needs to maximize the effectiveness of the AHPS
      program. This report assesses AHPS in respect to hydrologic science
      and technology research, river routing and mechanics, "systems"
      engineering aspects, and implementation.
      > Overall, this report finds AHPS to be an ambitious program that
      promises to provide services and products that are timely and
      necessary. The report calls for AHPS to develop a detailed and
      comprehensive, multi-year implementation plan and for the program's
      goals and budget to be brought into closer alignment.
      > More Information http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11598.html
      >

      --- End forwarded message ---

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