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Dangerous atmospheric humidity needs immediate attention

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  • Patrick Neuman
    It is CRITICAL that people understand that: Dangerous atmospheric humidity needs immediate attention. The increase in humidity can NOT be explained by
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 15, 2003
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      It is CRITICAL that people understand that:

      Dangerous atmospheric humidity needs immediate attention.

      The increase in humidity can NOT be explained by increases in water
      use for irrigation ... the greatest increase in dew points
      occurred during the month of February.

      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
      Important of increasing humidity:

      - severe increases in ill effects to health (including death)
      - unquestionably strong trends with minimal or no UHI *
      - acceleration effects in thaw of snow & ice (regional & global)

      * Urban Heat Island can affect air temperatures, NOT dew points.
      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

      It is CRITICAL that people understand that heavy worldwide aviation is
      greatly increasing the volume of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

      The heavy accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases
      global warming, which increases evaporation & transpiration, which
      increases the volume of water vapor (also a greenhouse gas).

      Abstract for paper for NOAA's 28th Climate Diagnostics & Prediction
      Workshop Oct.20-24 2003

      Title: Humidity effects on snowmelt in the Midwest & Great Plains
      Author: Patrick J. Neuman
      Submitted 7/9/2003

      The rate of snowmelt increases as humidity increases (when
      temperatures are above freezing). Higher humidity contributes to
      increased snowmelt rates due to latent heat effects from condensation.

      Monthly and annual dew point data based on hourly measurements at
      first order climate stations in the Midwest and Great Plains were
      evaluated for a 55 year period of record (1948 through 2002). The
      average dewpoints from 1998 through 2002 at 40 of the 43 stations were
      found to be the highest of record (for five year averages). The
      average dew point from 1998 through 2002 at Minneapolis, Minnesota was
      found to be the highest in 85 years of record. The 43 station average
      dew point from 1998 through 2002 was 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit higher
      than the 43 station average of record used for comparison in this
      study (50 year average from 1948 through 1997).

      The need to account for increases in melt rates due to higher humidity
      levels in the prediction of runoff from snowmelt is explored in the
      paper.

      Table 1: Highest five year average dewpoints & historical averages

      Highest-5yr: 2nd highest: historical: station (record begins)
      41.5 98-02 : 41.1 97-01 : 39.1 Chicago O'H IL (1959)
      42.5 98-02 : 42.3 97-01 : 39.5 Moline IL (1948)
      43.7 98-02 : 43.1 97-01 : 40.9 Peoria IL (1948)
      41.0 98-02 : 40.6 97-01 : 38.6 Rockford IL (1951)
      44.5 90-94 : 44.4 98-02 : 42.6 Springfield IL (1948)
      47.4 98-02 : 47.1 90-94 : 45.5 Evansville IN (1948)
      42.8 98-02 : 42.5 97-01 : 40.6 Fort Wayne IN (1948)
      44.7 98-02 : 44.1 90-94 : 42.7 Indianapolis IN (1948)
      41.9 98-02 : 41.6 71-75 : 40.4 South Bend IN (1948)
      41.5 98-02 : 41.4 97-01 : 39.0 Des Moines IA (1945)
      40.1 98-02 : 39.8 97-01 : 37.3 Dubuque IA (1951)
      38.9 98-02 : 38.6 97-01 : 36.4 Mason City IA (1948)
      40.1 98-02 : 40.0 97-01 : 37.6 Sioux City IA (1948)
      44.9 98-02 : 44.7 90-94 : 42.9 Covington KY (1948)
      46.4 90-94 : 46.2 98-02 : 43.9 Lexington KY (1948)
      47.6 98-02 : 47.0 97-01 : 45.3 Louisville KY (1948)
      37.0 98-02 : 36.5 97-01 : 34.5 Alpena MI (1959)
      40.5 98-02 : 40.5 97-01 : 38.9 Detroit MI (1948)
      41.0 98-02 : 40.5 97-01 : 38.2 Flint MI (1948)
      41.1 98-02 : 40.5 97-01 : 38.5 Muskegon MI (1948)
      38.5 98-02 : 38.4 97-01 : 36.2 Traverse City MI (1948)
      33.1 98-02 : 32.8 97-01 : 29.4 Duluth MN (1948)
      31.6 98-02 : 31.4 97-01 : 27.8 International F MN (1948)
      37.3 98-02 : 37.0 97-01 : 34.2 Minneapolis MN (1945)
      35.4 98-02 : 35.0 97-01 : 32.7 St Cloud MN (1948)
      45.7 98-02 : 45.3 97-01 : 43.2 Columbia MO (1945)
      45.7 98-02 : 45.4 97-01 : 42.7 Kansas City MO (1948)
      46.7 98-02 : 46.7 97-01 : 44.7 Springfield MO (1948)
      46.7 98-02 : 46.5 71-75 : 44.3 St Louis MO (1945)
      42.6 97-01 : 42.4 98-02 : 39.6 Omaha NE (1948)
      34.2 98-02 : 33.9 97-01 : 31.6 Fargo ND (1948)
      41.8 98-02 : 41.1 45-49 : 39.7 Pittsburgh PA (1945)
      43.1 98-02 : 42.6 97-01 : 40.5 Cleveland OH (1948)
      43.1 53-57 : 43.0 98-02 : 41.8 Columbus OH (1948)
      43.0 98-02 : 42.6 97-01 : 41.5 Dayton OH (1948)
      41.8 98-02 : 41.4 53-57 : 39.9 Toledo OH (1946)
      37.7 98-02 : 37.5 97-01 : 34.8 Sioux Falls SD (1948)
      45.9 98-02 : 45.7 90-94 : 43.9 Charleston WV (1949)
      36.7 98-02 : 36.4 97-01 : 34.0 Eau Claire WI (1949)
      38.3 98-02 : 37.9 97-01 : 35.4 Green Bay WI (1949)
      38.9 98-02 : 38.7 97-01 : 36.5 La Crosse WI (1948)
      39.2 98-02 : 39.0 97-01 : 36.7 Madison WI (1948)
      40.1 98-02 : 39.2 97-01 : 37.6 Milwaukee WI (1948)

      All stations averages (F)
      Highest 5yr: - - - - - - - - : historical
      41.3 98-02 : - - - - - - - - : 38.9
      Difference: 41.3 - 38.9 = 2.4 F

      End of table & abstract by Pat Neuman

      The tentative agenda for the 28th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction
      Workshop is at:
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDW28.html
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/28thcdpw.agenda.pdf

      The paper by Pat Neuman called "Humidity effects on snowmelt in the
      Midwest & Great Plains will be presented as a poster paper at:
      Wednesday October 22, 2003 1:00-2:30 POSTER SESSION 3.

      Additional information regarding the workshop:

      NOAA's 28th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop will be held
      20-24 October at John Ascuaga's Nugget in Reno, Nevada. The workshop
      is cohosted by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers
      for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NOAA, Washington DC, and the
      Desert Research Institute (DRI), Reno, Nevada. The American
      Meteorological Society is a cooperating sponsor. This year's workshop
      will provide an opportunity for participants to
      exchange information, ideas, and opinions on the following topics:
      1.) Review and assessment of recent climate anomalies, their
      impacts and the skill of their predictions
      2.) Drought
      3.) weather, water and climate in the western United States
      Physical analysis and interpretation are particularly encouraged,
      regardless of whether the approach of the study is
      observational, modeling, or theoretical. ...

      Pat Neuman
      Minnesota
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