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Fw: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 y ears

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  • Pat N self only
    ... Letter Nature 436, 686-688 (4 August 2005) | doi: 10.1038/nature03906 Increasing
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 8, 2005
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      ---------- Forwarded Message ----------
      Letter
      <http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7051/edsumm/e050804-11.html>

      Nature 436, 686-688 (4 August 2005) | doi: 10.1038/nature03906

      Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years
      Kerry Emanuel1

      (Abstract)

      Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase
      with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection
      of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency
      and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential
      destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of
      power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that
      this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is
      due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I
      find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly
      correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting
      well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations
      in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My
      results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in
      tropical cyclone destructive potential, and-taking into account an
      increasing coastal population-a substantial increase in
      hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.

      1.Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts
      Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA

      Correspondence to: Kerry Emanuel1
      Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to the author at
      Email: emanuel@....

      Received 28 January 2005; Accepted 3 June 2005

      Posted by Tim
      AustinTex
      --
      <http://www.groundtruthinvestigations.com/>








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