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Expected Temperatures - Calculation of

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  • mtneuman@juno.com
    The following is how I derived expected temperature based on CO2 concentration levels in the atmosphere (in my November 11, 2002 post to
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 22, 2003
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      The following is how I derived expected temperature based on CO2
      concentration levels in the atmosphere (in my November 11, 2002 post to
      Climateconcern@yahoogroups.com).

      I used existing graphs of CO2 and temperature over the last 160,000
      years,
      calculated the average ratio between CO2 in PPM and Temperature in
      degrees C
      over the last 160,000 years. The ratio I came up with in doing that was
      that CO2 PPM is 16.6 times the temperature C in the atmosphere at any
      particular time.. For a CO2 concentration equal to the measured level
      today
      of 375 PPM CO2, the global average temperature would be expected to reach
      375/16.6 = 22.6 C (72 F) or 7.6 C (13 F) over the present global average
      temperature of 15 C (59 F).

      A doubling of the present CO2 concentration of the atmosphere of 375 PPM
      to
      750 PPM would result in an expected global average temperature of
      750/16.6 =
      45.1 C (113 F), or 30 C (54 F) rise in the global average temperature.

      Michael Neuman

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