Paul Lehman note on Siberian vagrants
Leave it to Paul to suck the proverbial Asian wind from the sails! I for
one, am still optimistic!
I wished I shared in your CalBird optimism over the chances of a Siberian
Express autumn here in w. Alaska and farther south in California. There's
still lots of time for such to possibly develop, BUT: so far it has been
the worst fall in memory to date for Asian landbirds here (Gambell) and at
Shemya, with NONE to date (at least as of the day before this current storm
hit the Aleutians). And as for the storm, I think it is tracking too far
south to do us up here at Gambell much good (we now have two days of NNE/N
winds forecast; but, again, I hope I am wrong. The Aleutians or Pribilofs
may do better, although nobody is on the Pribs or Adak this fall, so it is
up to the one fellow currently at Shemya to find everything. And last, but
not least, if the past correlation between good numbers of various pipits
at Gambell in late Aug/Sept translating into a good year for them in
California later on in the season holds this year, then it will NOT be a
good year in California, as it is a mediocre year here at Gambell for
Red-throateds and japonicus.
If you'd like to post this "rebuttal" on CalBird, feel free. But, again,
I, more than just about anybody, hopes I am wrong!!!!
Brian L. Sullivan
eBird Project Leader
Birds of North America Online
Cornell Lab of Ornithology
159 Sapsucker Woods Rd.
Ithaca, NY 14850
North American Birds
American Birding Association
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