Re: Is Sportsbetting an Efficient Market?
- --- In Behavioral-Finance@y..., leif_ericssen@y... wrote:
> I'd sooner speculate figuring that 1. most people don't think multitend
> levels deep as in Keynes's beauty quiz scenarios and 2. they'll
> to pick their numbers on the high side rather than hit the randonkey
> on their calcs. I don't know if they'll favour round numbers or notIn
> in this kind of situation, but I'd pick 3 and 8 as the 2nd digit.
> this case my # would be 73. :)I think that if their is money at stake
(how much does Martin offer to the winner? :)))
many people will also be influenced by
magical lucky numbers, like their birth date.
And will of course avoid the phone number
of their tax collector.
I even wander, some time, if people do not
choose their stocks according to the alphabet
Which would explain the reversed price
correlation between Amazon and Zambia Copper :))
- --- In Behavioral-Finance@y..., "dpduke93" <dpennock@r...> wrote:
> Many economists take seriously the notion that betting markets arethe
> efficient, or at least offer a great environment in which to test
> EMH. Here are some papers (at least 1 mentioned previously in thisThis popularity of sportsbetting markets sems to have recurrent
Actualy, when I started this thread, I intended it as a not very
serious analogy, to try to explain more clearly the rationale for
efficiency in markets - I hoped that it would be a rather humourous
way of giving a perspective to Peter (Locke's) arguments at the time.