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Re: Is Sportsbetting an Efficient Market?

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  • pgreenfinch@wanadoo.fr
    ... tend ... key ... In ... I think that if their is money at stake (how much does Martin offer to the winner? :))) many people will also be influenced by
    Message 1 of 86 , Jun 16, 2001
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      --- In Behavioral-Finance@y..., leif_ericssen@y... wrote:
      > I'd sooner speculate figuring that 1. most people don't think multi
      > levels deep as in Keynes's beauty quiz scenarios and 2. they'll
      tend
      > to pick their numbers on the high side rather than hit the randon
      key
      > on their calcs. I don't know if they'll favour round numbers or not
      > in this kind of situation, but I'd pick 3 and 8 as the 2nd digit.
      In
      > this case my # would be 73. :)

      I think that if their is money at stake
      (how much does Martin offer to the winner? :)))
      many people will also be influenced by
      magical lucky numbers, like their birth date.
      And will of course avoid the phone number
      of their tax collector.
      I even wander, some time, if people do not
      choose their stocks according to the alphabet
      Which would explain the reversed price
      correlation between Amazon and Zambia Copper :))
      PG
    • leif_ericssen
      ... the ... This popularity of sportsbetting markets sems to have recurrent lives :) Actualy, when I started this thread, I intended it as a not very serious
      Message 86 of 86 , Jan 15, 2002
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        --- In Behavioral-Finance@y..., "dpduke93" <dpennock@r...> wrote:
        > Many economists take seriously the notion that betting markets are
        > efficient, or at least offer a great environment in which to test
        the
        > EMH. Here are some papers (at least 1 mentioned previously in this
        > thread):

        This popularity of sportsbetting markets sems to have recurrent
        lives :)

        Actualy, when I started this thread, I intended it as a not very
        serious analogy, to try to explain more clearly the rationale for
        efficiency in markets - I hoped that it would be a rather humourous
        way of giving a perspective to Peter (Locke's) arguments at the time.

        Jan
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