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Smog-transparency forecast

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  • Allan Rahill
    Hi As you all know, I have developped a new version of the transparency forecast which is now including smog. I was waiting for feedback or smog episode over
    Message 1 of 4 , Jul 13, 2003
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      Hi

      As you all know, I have developped a new version of the
      transparency forecast which is now including smog. I was waiting for
      feedback or smog episode over Montreal to ajust the forecast. We had only
      one episode so far where I downgraded the effect... and no feedback.
      Looking at long range forecast... well the smog will stay south of the
      border for the next week or two. I need feedback and soon, because my
      vacation starts in one week.

      The new transparency-smog forecasts are now available on my web site at
      the buttom section of this link...

      http://www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/htmls/transparence_e.html

      For all the users living in eastern U.S. I will appreciate to have
      feedback from you this week (if possible), to adjust this new forecast.

      Spread the news and I wish you all a good summer!


      Thanks!

      * *
      _~~~~~~~
      Allan Rahill * * *( )
      ~~-(__ )
      Centre meteorologique Canadien * (____ CMC )
      Canadian Meteorological Center, Dorval, Canada (_______)
      ////
      ASTRO-METEO-WEATHER '''
      http://www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/htmls/mainpage.html '''
      Attilla web page
      http://www.cleardarksky.com/csk
    • Patrice Scattolin
      ... Attilla already added the forcast to the clock (way to go). Now I was expecting the +smog forecast to match or be lighter (less transparent) since I was
      Message 2 of 4 , Jul 14, 2003
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        Allan Rahill wrote:

        >Hi
        >
        >As you all know, I have developped a new version of the
        >transparency forecast which is now including smog. I was waiting for
        >feedback or smog episode over Montreal to ajust the forecast. We had only
        >one episode so far where I downgraded the effect... and no feedback.
        >

        Attilla already added the forcast to the clock (way to go).

        Now I was expecting the +smog forecast to match or be lighter (less
        transparent) since I was
        expecting the old transparency forecast being an upper bound to the
        "+smog" forecast. But
        I am looking at the Toronto clock right now (2003-07-14 monday starting
        at 12) and I see some
        hours where the "+smog" forecast is more transparent (now there are more
        hours
        where the +smog is less transparent but still). What's going on? Is it
        that both forecasts aren't done at the same time, a software bug or I am
        a few
        clues short of a full deck?
      • attilladanko
        ... wrote: Yeh. I think will confuse a lot of people. It s because the trans+smog forecast and the transparnecy forecast are likely to be very
        Message 3 of 4 , Jul 14, 2003
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          --- In AstronomyWeather@yahoogroups.com, Patrice Scattolin
          <scattol@v...> wrote:

          Yeh. I think will confuse a lot of people.

          It's because the trans+smog forecast and the transparnecy
          forecast are likely to be very different ages when you compare
          them.

          Particularly if you look at a clock in the middle afternoon
          (most poplular time according to my log files).

          You'll be comparing transparency forcast blocks from a forecast
          only a few hours old (89% accurate) vs a forecast that was
          generated last night and is about 12+ hours old -- quite a bit
          less accurate.

          So we simply cant assume that the differences between transparency
          and trans+smog is simply due to smog.

          Bummer. (technial term)

          I'm trying to convince Allan that a possible solution is to create
          a smog-only forecast. That way it wont get compared with
          transparency -- I hope.


          > Now I was expecting the +smog forecast to match or be lighter (less
          > transparent) since I was
          > expecting the old transparency forecast being an upper bound to the
          > "+smog" forecast. But
          > I am looking at the Toronto clock right now (2003-07-14 monday
          starting
          > at 12) and I see some
          > hours where the "+smog" forecast is more transparent (now there are
          more
          > hours
          > where the +smog is less transparent but still). What's going on? Is
          it
          > that both forecasts aren't done at the same time, a software bug or
          I am
          > a few
          > clues short of a full deck?
        • Patrice Scattolin
          ... I suspected that something like that might be happening. Indeed, as XV used to say, Bummer ... I think that in the end, we will just want the +smog
          Message 4 of 4 , Jul 14, 2003
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            attilladanko wrote:

            >--- In AstronomyWeather@yahoogroups.com, Patrice Scattolin
            ><scattol@v...> wrote:
            >
            >Yeh. I think will confuse a lot of people.
            >
            >It's because the trans+smog forecast and the transparnecy
            >forecast are likely to be very different ages when you compare
            >them.
            >

            I suspected that something like that might be happening. Indeed, as XV
            used to say, "Bummer"

            >I'm trying to convince Allan that a possible solution is to create
            >a smog-only forecast. That way it wont get compared with
            >transparency -- I hope.
            >
            I think that in the end, we will just want the "+smog" forecast anyways
            so it
            might not be worth the effort to have a separate smog forecasts. It might
            mean that some transaprency forecasts (say 12:00 UTC) would use slightly
            older smog data
            and not be the most accurate. Ok some of the mixed together
            data isn't all consistent but you can stuff that in the fine print.
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