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Re: [AWES] FISH

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  • christopher carlin
    This is just an observation based on my involvement with one of the longest duration aircraft flights back in the 1980s. In this case an autonomous vehicle
    Message 1 of 12 , Aug 7, 2013
      This is just an observation based on my involvement with one of the longest duration aircraft flights back in the 1980s. In this case an autonomous vehicle called Condor. I think we set a record at around 5 days. In our case propulsion system reliability and fuel were the limiting factors. Not far behind however were the following:

      1. Reliability of non structural components - mostly control actuators and electronics. The only way you get the kind of reliability you need is through redundancy which adds weight and cost. I say this as one is actually a champion of robust single thread systems but they're impossible to sell in a safety conscious environment.

      2. Ground Crew Fatigue - One of the problems with a system like this is it is like running a ship some one has to be on watch all the time. To the degree it's a complicated system you probably need more than one person on each watch.

      3. Weather Conditions - Anytime you operate systems like this you will encounter weather that has to be avoided either by landing or moving. It's not a question of if but when. Which comes back to 2. It's hard to imagine operating large scale system without human monitoring even if their operation is fully automatic 99% of the time. 

      I'm not saying it can't be done. Just trying to point out the big things you have to watch for.

      Regards,

      Chris   
      On Aug 7, 2013, at 5:12 PM, Joe Faust <joefaust333@...> wrote:

       


      --What questions might be asked?


       A kiteboarder's legs get tired limits the duration of the such aircraft system. Motorized moving anchors of towed wings around a circle may last as long as somethings does not stop the moving anchor; the flight might be done outdoors or indoors. What is the longest time a single person has ground-piloted a kite system? What is the longest time that a kite system has been observed flying, whether directly piloted or not? What is the longest time that a human has been in the air as kite pilot of a fixed-anchor? What has been the longest time that a human has been in a kite wing arrangement while the anchor was a moving boat? What is the longest time that a ship has flown its towing kite before bringing the wing into storage? What is the longest time that a moored kite-balloon was flown?   ETC.     

      What questions are missing for "endurance" as regards captive aircraft?


    • Bob Stuart
      One of the nice things about decentralized power is that there won t be a need to maintain a large, idle staff for the occasional weather event. A
      Message 2 of 12 , Aug 7, 2013
        One of the nice things about decentralized power is that there won't be a need to maintain a large, idle staff for the occasional weather event.  A community-owned and community-serving utility will have no trouble raising a "Volunteer Fire Department" that will gather whenever the wind rises.  People who hang around hang gliders reflexively orient any on the ground into a wind shift, and farmers and sailors also swing into action when Aeolus moans.

        Bob Stuart

        On 7-Aug-13, at 7:27 PM, christopher carlin wrote:

        This is just an observation based on my involvement with one of the longest duration aircraft flights back in the 1980s. In this case an autonomous vehicle called Condor. I think we set a record at around 5 days. In our case propulsion system reliability and fuel were the limiting factors. Not far behind however were the following:


        1. Reliability of non structural components - mostly control actuators and electronics. The only way you get the kind of reliability you need is through redundancy which adds weight and cost. I say this as one is actually a champion of robust single thread systems but they're impossible to sell in a safety conscious environment.

        2. Ground Crew Fatigue - One of the problems with a system like this is it is like running a ship some one has to be on watch all the time. To the degree it's a complicated system you probably need more than one person on each watch.

        3. Weather Conditions - Anytime you operate systems like this you will encounter weather that has to be avoided either by landing or moving. It's not a question of if but when. Which comes back to 2. It's hard to imagine operating large scale system without human monitoring even if their operation is fully automatic 99% of the time. 

        I'm not saying it can't be done. Just trying to point out the big things you have to watch for.

        Regards,

        Chris   
      • christopher carlin
        They also maintain a constant watch. I don t know that you need a large crew constantly but you almost certainly will need at least a watch keeper at all
        Message 3 of 12 , Aug 7, 2013
          They also maintain a constant watch. I don't know that you need a large crew constantly but you almost certainly will need at least a watch keeper at all times. For the sorts of things you're talking about doing I can't imagine any responsible authority letting you do less.

          Regards,

          Chris
          On Aug 7, 2013, at 7:00 PM, Bob Stuart <bobstuart@...> wrote:

           

          One of the nice things about decentralized power is that there won't be a need to maintain a large, idle staff for the occasional weather event.  A community-owned and community-serving utility will have no trouble raising a "Volunteer Fire Department" that will gather whenever the wind rises.  People who hang around hang gliders reflexively orient any on the ground into a wind shift, and farmers and sailors also swing into action when Aeolus moans.


          Bob Stuart

          On 7-Aug-13, at 7:27 PM, christopher carlin wrote:

          This is just an observation based on my involvement with one of the longest duration aircraft flights back in the 1980s. In this case an autonomous vehicle called Condor. I think we set a record at around 5 days. In our case propulsion system reliability and fuel were the limiting factors. Not far behind however were the following:


          1. Reliability of non structural components - mostly control actuators and electronics. The only way you get the kind of reliability you need is through redundancy which adds weight and cost. I say this as one is actually a champion of robust single thread systems but they're impossible to sell in a safety conscious environment.

          2. Ground Crew Fatigue - One of the problems with a system like this is it is like running a ship some one has to be on watch all the time. To the degree it's a complicated system you probably need more than one person on each watch.

          3. Weather Conditions - Anytime you operate systems like this you will encounter weather that has to be avoided either by landing or moving. It's not a question of if but when. Which comes back to 2. It's hard to imagine operating large scale system without human monitoring even if their operation is fully automatic 99% of the time. 

          I'm not saying it can't be done. Just trying to point out the big things you have to watch for.

          Regards,

          Chris   


        • Joe Faust
          Boeing Condor * http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/companyoffices/financial/finreports/ann ual/boeing98.pdf
          Message 4 of 12 , Aug 8, 2013
          • christopher carlin
            Ah the wonders of the internet. Chris
            Message 5 of 12 , Aug 8, 2013
              Ah the wonders of the internet.

              Chris
              On Aug 8, 2013, at 6:59 AM, "Joe Faust" <joefaust333@...> wrote:


            • dave santos
              Chris well summarized the big things you have to watch for in long duration aviation, as applied to AWE. This is not just exotic specialty-aerospace; these
              Message 6 of 12 , Aug 10, 2013
                Chris well summarized "the big things you have to watch for" in long duration aviation, as applied to AWE. This is not just exotic specialty-aerospace; these factors are  similarly addressed in how intensively modern transport aircraft are worked around the clock.

                Here is a quick listing of current high-endurance AWES solution concepts-

                - Keep actuators and electronics on the ground as much as possible; for stronger, cheaper, more reliable hardware; with reduced flying mass; and enhanced inspectability/maintainability.

                - Mega-scale flight unit with robust "single-thread" control will allow a small flight crew to fly a vast capacity, just as jumbo transport piloting is more productive compared to small transports. 

                - A low-complexity "rag and string" flight basis can deliver high-safety, by avoiding high-mass/high-velocity risks (and stricter more-complex regulation). Multiple tethers (simple high-redundancy) make the runaway worst-case statistically almost impossible.

                - Crew fatigue will be managed just as ships and air transports do, by application of traditional watches and modern human-factors standards. Flexible operational attention can come from network telepresence, for example late-night flight partly monitored by a remote pilot in a daytime time-zone. Supervised autonomy can be very light work, but there will be very challenging times (limit-case alarms, exception-handling, recovery). Bob's "volunteer fire dept" model sounds good for small communities to crowd-source peak-workload events.

                - The flux of weather conditions, in combination with system and crew factors are, even more so, still best handled by an experienced Pilot-In-Command (PIC). Storms are ideally completely avoided by landing and securing everything. "Sucker wind", with marginal velocity and many lulls, is perhaps the most maddening working condition.

                AWES developers must understand that the FAA will require a PIC and VO (Visual Observer) for many years to come, so plan on these professionals for essential added-value to efficient and profitable operations. Even if a launch-and-forget AWES was not a current impossibility, flight crews are the regulatory reality in major energy markets.


                From: christopher carlin <christopher.m.carlin@...>
                To: AirborneWindEnergy@yahoogroups.com
                Sent: Wednesday, August 7, 2013 6:27 PM
                Subject: Re: [AWES] FISH

                 
                This is just an observation based on my involvement with one of the longest duration aircraft flights back in the 1980s. In this case an autonomous vehicle called Condor. I think we set a record at around 5 days. In our case propulsion system reliability and fuel were the limiting factors. Not far behind however were the following:

                1. Reliability of non structural components - mostly control actuators and electronics. The only way you get the kind of reliability you need is through redundancy which adds weight and cost. I say this as one is actually a champion of robust single thread systems but they're impossible to sell in a safety conscious environment.

                2. Ground Crew Fatigue - One of the problems with a system like this is it is like running a ship some one has to be on watch all the time. To the degree it's a complicated system you probably need more than one person on each watch.

                3. Weather Conditions - Anytime you operate systems like this you will encounter weather that has to be avoided either by landing or moving. It's not a question of if but when. Which comes back to 2. It's hard to imagine operating large scale system without human monitoring even if their operation is fully automatic 99% of the time. 

                I'm not saying it can't be done. Just trying to point out the big things you have to watch for.

                Regards,

                Chris   
              • christopher carlin
                Dear Dave, Well said. Good points. Tele piloting to always keep the PIC on first shift is a neat idea. Regards, Chris
                Message 7 of 12 , Aug 10, 2013
                  Dear Dave,

                  Well said. Good points. Tele piloting to always keep the PIC on first shift is a neat idea.

                  Regards,

                  Chris

                • Doug
                  Power plants including windfarms rely on employees, not villager volunteers. Any wind energy system needs 2 levels of overspeed protection - regular plus
                  Message 8 of 12 , Aug 13, 2013
                    Power plants including windfarms rely on employees, not villager volunteers. Any wind energy system needs 2 levels of overspeed protection - regular plus emergency, and the ability to shut down ahead of a major storm or for any other reason. Dave S. talks about volunteer pilots flying kites just for the honor. Sure, for the first day maybe. OK wait let's say until lunch time. You guys are in la-la-land. If AWE ever gets going it will be while you all stand by and watch with running mostly irrelevant commentary.
                    :)

                    --- In AirborneWindEnergy@yahoogroups.com, Bob Stuart <bobstuart@...> wrote:
                    >
                    > One of the nice things about decentralized power is that there won't
                    > be a need to maintain a large, idle staff for the occasional weather
                    > event. A community-owned and community-serving utility will have no
                    > trouble raising a "Volunteer Fire Department" that will gather
                    > whenever the wind rises. People who hang around hang gliders
                    > reflexively orient any on the ground into a wind shift, and farmers
                    > and sailors also swing into action when Aeolus moans.
                    >
                    > Bob Stuart
                    >
                    > On 7-Aug-13, at 7:27 PM, christopher carlin wrote:
                    >
                    > > This is just an observation based on my involvement with one of the
                    > > longest duration aircraft flights back in the 1980s. In this case
                    > > an autonomous vehicle called Condor. I think we set a record at
                    > > around 5 days. In our case propulsion system reliability and fuel
                    > > were the limiting factors. Not far behind however were the following:
                    > >
                    > >
                    > > 1. Reliability of non structural components - mostly control
                    > > actuators and electronics. The only way you get the kind of
                    > > reliability you need is through redundancy which adds weight and
                    > > cost. I say this as one is actually a champion of robust single
                    > > thread systems but they're impossible to sell in a safety conscious
                    > > environment.
                    > >
                    > > 2. Ground Crew Fatigue - One of the problems with a system like
                    > > this is it is like running a ship some one has to be on watch all
                    > > the time. To the degree it's a complicated system you probably need
                    > > more than one person on each watch.
                    > >
                    > > 3. Weather Conditions - Anytime you operate systems like this you
                    > > will encounter weather that has to be avoided either by landing or
                    > > moving. It's not a question of if but when. Which comes back to 2.
                    > > It's hard to imagine operating large scale system without human
                    > > monitoring even if their operation is fully automatic 99% of the time.
                    > >
                    > > I'm not saying it can't be done. Just trying to point out the big
                    > > things you have to watch for.
                    > >
                    > > Regards,
                    > >
                    > > Chris
                    >
                  • dave santos
                    Doug, Its true: A few dozen qualified kite masters will line up to pilot prototype kite farms, as a free thrill. Do not use this fact to carelessly overlook
                    Message 9 of 12 , Aug 13, 2013
                      Doug,

                      Its true: A few dozen qualified kite masters will line up to pilot prototype kite farms, as a free thrill. Do not use this fact to carelessly overlook that the Forum has long explored the paid staffing requirement for normal operations (reread Forum  posts elaborating on kite farm labor operations, even unionization).

                      Why deny the effectiveness of cooperative society (like this Forum)? The real wind power world obviously depends on community action: If there is a turbine fire or a thrown blade accident, the rural first responders are most often volunteer fire departments. Therefore, Bob's model is already established in utility scale wind power (if not "backyard wind"). In fact, communities the world over traditionally self-organize for peak events, even better than corporations can. Rural power cooperatives are common.

                       In your cognitive isolation, you cannot possibly be as smart as the wider AWE open-source community. As a fast-growing learning-community in AWE, its far easier for us than you to see the obvious: There are endless managerial precedents for a flexible workforce; like the use of "on-call", "standby", and "temp-work" labor, as commercial defaults. Labor cost is a standard cost of doing business for us, hardly worth questioning, except to correct the wrongful impression you promote, that somehow hundreds of AWE pioneers are all idiots, with no progress to show. 

                      Please try harder to appreciate and fairly represent the positive thinking of others in AWE,

                      daveS


                       




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