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Hart & Skrebowski take on CERA in the SPE

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  • Phil Hart
    hi folks, The Society of Petroleum Engineers have just published the online version of their June 2007 Journal of Petroleum Technology, which is distributed to
    Message 1 of 4 , Jun 1, 2007
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      hi folks,

      The Society of Petroleum Engineers have just published the online version of their June 2007 Journal of Petroleum Technology, which is distributed to their 73,000 members and throughout the world's oil and gas industry. They have included four responses to CERA's February editorial. A very brief summary of a paper I wrote with a little support from Chris Skrebowski is one of those:

      http://www.spe.org/spe-app/spe/jpt/2007/06/DissReply.htm

      Our full length original article is available here:
      http://www.philhart.com/files/aspo/PhilHart_PeakOil_Detailed_Transparent_Analysis.pdf

      SPE, although to be highly commended for publishing these views, have done what they can to bury the good content in two of these papers below one other long winded and another outright wacky response. They have also not included any real explanation of what the page is about.

      However, they did give Peter Jackson from CERA a right of reply. His comments below our articles are pretty desperate and easily dismissed. Enjoy!

      cheers
      Phil.

      --
      Phil Hart
      0438 037 567

      Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil
      www.aspo-australia.org.au

    • James Ward
      Wow! Well done Phil. You continue to impress! Interesting how in his reply, Jackson says how it is impossible to predict a peak and therefore criticises you
      Message 2 of 4 , Jun 2, 2007
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        Wow! Well done Phil. You continue to impress!

        Interesting how in his reply, Jackson says how it is impossible to
        predict a peak and therefore criticises you for attempting to make a
        prediction. It seems that according to him, it is only impossible to
        predict an early peak. Predicting an undulating plateau starting in
        2030, however, is entirely valid.

        I'd just like to add that 25 years of further growth (and THEN an
        oil crash) is not in the interests of today's young professionals,
        who may well be about to retire at that time. It betrays a
        tremendous lack of concern for today's young people when a
        comfortable middle-aged person declares that issues like Peak Oil
        are unworthy of consideration as they are not due to hit until 2030.
        Ditto climate change.



        --- In ASPO_Oz_YoungProf@yahoogroups.com, Phil Hart <yahoo@...>
        wrote:
        >
        > hi folks,
        >
        > The Society of Petroleum Engineers have just published the online
        > version of their June 2007 Journal of Petroleum Technology, which
        is
        > distributed to their 73,000 members and throughout the world's oil
        and
        > gas industry. They have included four responses to CERA's February
        > editorial. A very brief summary of a paper I wrote with a little
        support
        > from Chris Skrebowski is one of those:
        >
        > http://www.spe.org/spe-app/spe/jpt/2007/06/DissReply.htm
        >
        > Our full length original article is available here:
        >
        http://www.philhart.com/files/aspo/PhilHart_PeakOil_Detailed_Transpar
        ent_Analysis.pdf
        >
        > SPE, although to be highly commended for publishing these views,
        have
        > done what they can to bury the good content in two of these papers
        below
        > one other long winded and another outright wacky response. They
        have
        > also not included any real explanation of what the page is about.
        >
        > However, they did give Peter Jackson from CERA a right of reply.
        His
        > comments below our articles are pretty desperate and easily
        dismissed.
        > Enjoy!
        >
        > cheers
        > Phil.
        >
        > --
        > *Phil Hart
        > 0438 037 567
        > *
        > Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil
        > www.aspo-australia.org.au
        >
      • Jenny Bain
        Yes, brilliant work Phil! Well done! I will circulate far and wide I have surveyed CERA s comments published in in worldwide newspapers - usually given top
        Message 3 of 4 , Jun 2, 2007
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          Yes, brilliant work Phil! Well done!

          I will circulate far and wide

          I have surveyed CERA's comments published in in worldwide newspapers -
          usually given top billing to espouse their vague unsubstantive attacks
          on 'peak oil theory.' Every time they have made 'predictions' they
          have been dead wrong every time!!! The luxury of flat earth economics!
          Similar story with ABARE. At what price to sell their souls.

          cheers Jenny
        • The_Dilster
          ... True...except, as Colin Campbell as pointed out, what matters more than WHEN production peaks is how fast it will decrease after peaking. If production
          Message 4 of 4 , Jun 4, 2007
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            --- In ASPO_Oz_YoungProf@yahoogroups.com, "James Ward"
            <james.ward@...> wrote:
            >
            > I'd just like to add that 25 years of further growth (and THEN an
            > oil crash) is not in the interests of today's young professionals,
            > who may well be about to retire at that time. It betrays a
            > tremendous lack of concern for today's young people when a
            > comfortable middle-aged person declares that issues like Peak Oil
            > are unworthy of consideration as they are not due to hit until 2030.

            True...except, as Colin Campbell as pointed out, what matters more
            than WHEN production peaks is how fast it will decrease after
            peaking. If production gradually decreased at, say 1 or 2% a year
            (initally), then in principle we'd have time to adjust without too
            much pain - I actually suspect this would be true even if production
            HAS already peaked. I'm far more concerned about the possibility that
            production won't peak until, say, 2020, but will then decline at 12 or
            13% a year (as certain individual fields have been known to do). That
            truly would be an "oil crash", with the sort of consequences that End-
            of-suburbia type movies portray.

            Fortunately, the most comprehensive analyses I've read so far tend to
            point more towards the former scenario, so I'm staying reasonably
            optimistic for now.
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