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Re: 125 Million QSO's Cant be Wrong

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  • timgep
    ... I took a snapshot over the weekend of slightly over 200,000 new QSOs that came in. Here are my stats: Date Total QSO s Total QSL Records 3/30
    Message 1 of 6 , Apr 1 3:29 PM
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      --- In ARRL-LOTW@yahoogroups.com, "timgep" <timgep@...> wrote:
      >
      > Congrats! We passed 125 million QSOs on LOTW yesterday.
      >
      > Overall QSL rate is now at 13% and climbing.
      >
      I took a snapshot over the weekend of slightly over
      200,000 new QSOs that came in. Here are my stats:

      Date Total QSO's Total QSL Records
      3/30 125,103,815 8,131,451

      4/1 125,310,347 8,148,561

      diff 206,532 17,110

      So for this time period, the QSL rate for these
      new QSO's is 8.28% Obviously, long-term these QSO's
      will be matched at a much higher rate. Still, this
      8 percent number seems low to me.

      I'm thinking this isn't enough data to predict where
      the LOTW overall QSL rate is headed. Obviously there
      are a lot of factors like RTTY Contest weekends etc.
      I thought this weekend was a good choice for a study,
      since there is no major contest going on.

      I did notice that Friday was a particularly bad day for QSL matches,
      and that it got progressively better over the weekend.

      Tim K6GEP
    • Ford Peterson
      Time wrote: ...snip... I did notice that Friday was a particularly bad day for QSL matches, and that it got progressively better over the weekend. Tim K6GEP
      Message 2 of 6 , Apr 1 4:05 PM
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        Time wrote:

        ...snip...

        I did notice that Friday was a particularly bad day for QSL matches, and
        that it got progressively better over the weekend.

        Tim K6GEP

        ********************************

        Tim,

        I don't think you can evaluate the data in this manner. Unfortunately,
        sampling the data for a single day two days later answers one question:

        "How many users that happened to have QSOs on Friday upload the data
        immediately?" As you indicated, there are very few. And the question is
        completely different than what you were investigating.

        You could answer that question by looking at the QSL matches for Friday's
        uploads--two years from now. Unfortunately, LOTW database stats do not
        permit such a granular query...

        Ford-N0FP
        ford@...
      • Richard DiDonna NN3W
        Just bear in mind that instant gratification is not indicative of long-term results. Seriously, nobody expects even a bureau card until at least 3 months
        Message 3 of 6 , Apr 1 4:15 PM
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          Just bear in mind that instant gratification is not indicative of long-term results.  Seriously, nobody expects even a bureau card until at least 3 months after the QSO....
           
          My current rate is about 17% for contacts - many of which are contest QSOs.
           
          73 Rich NN3W
          ----- Original Message -----
          From: timgep
          Sent: Sunday, April 01, 2007 6:29 PM
          Subject: [ARRL-LOTW] Re: 125 Million QSO's Cant be Wrong

          --- In ARRL-LOTW@yahoogrou ps.com, "timgep" <timgep@...> wrote:
          >
          > Congrats! We passed 125 million QSOs on LOTW yesterday.
          >
          > Overall QSL rate is now at 13% and climbing.
          >
          I took a snapshot over the weekend of slightly over
          200,000 new QSOs that came in. Here are my stats:

          Date Total QSO's Total QSL Records
          3/30 125,103,815 8,131,451

          4/1 125,310,347 8,148,561

          diff 206,532 17,110

          So for this time period, the QSL rate for these
          new QSO's is 8.28% Obviously, long-term these QSO's
          will be matched at a much higher rate. Still, this
          8 percent number seems low to me.

          I'm thinking this isn't enough data to predict where
          the LOTW overall QSL rate is headed. Obviously there
          are a lot of factors like RTTY Contest weekends etc.
          I thought this weekend was a good choice for a study,
          since there is no major contest going on.

          I did notice that Friday was a particularly bad day for QSL matches,
          and that it got progressively better over the weekend.

          Tim K6GEP

        • Bob Nielsen
          ... I suspect that many hams upload their logs at the end of the month resulting in Saturday and Sunday seeing a lot of uploads to LOTW. I don t know what the
          Message 4 of 6 , Apr 1 5:33 PM
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            On Apr 1, 2007, at 3:29 PM, timgep wrote:

            >
            > I did notice that Friday was a particularly bad day for QSL matches,
            > and that it got progressively better over the weekend.

            I suspect that many hams upload their logs at the end of the month
            resulting in Saturday and Sunday seeing a lot of uploads to LOTW. I
            don't know what the typical processing delay is--normally I would see
            my results immediately after an upload (except for contests) but now
            it seems to take longer, possibly because of increased usage.

            My QSLs are now at a 23% rate, which has been slowly increasing.
            Most of my QSOs in recent years have been in contests.

            Bob, N7XY
          • Phil Sauvey
            I find mine is running the same, just under 25% with the majority being contests. I generally upload mine after submitting my cabrillo file to the contest
            Message 5 of 6 , Apr 2 12:48 AM
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              I find mine is running the same, just under 25% with the majority being contests. I generally upload mine after submitting my cabrillo file to the contest robot. I normally submit via e-mail and this last time was the first time that I did not get an e-mail response back however, all of my contacts did get uploaded to LOTW.  I also feel I have an advantage if I load later at night with the east coast time difference. I normally get very quick responses, within a few minutes anyhow. 
               
              Phil KL8DX


              Bob Nielsen <nielsen@...> wrote:

              I suspect that many hams upload their logs at the end of the month
              resulting in Saturday and Sunday seeing a lot of uploads to LOTW. I
              don't know what the typical processing delay is--normally I would see
              my results immediately after an upload (except for contests) but now
              it seems to take longer, possibly because of increased usage.

              My QSLs are now at a 23% rate, which has been slowly increasing.
              Most of my QSOs in recent years have been in contests.

              Bob, N7XY




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