Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

More on indiv w/L vs. replacement (long)

Expand Messages
  • Dean Oliver
    ... This is getting at what an individual win-loss record should mean. We could go round and round ... They change the marginal players, I think. I don t
    Message 1 of 1 , May 2, 2002
    • 0 Attachment

      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      >
      >
      > On Thu, 2 May 2002, HoopStudies wrote:
      >
      > [...]
      >
      > > OK.  Defining replacement value is an interesting
      challenge.  James
      > > used 0.350.  I always felt like basketball's number was
      lower, maybe
      > > about 0.200-0.250.  If baseball's worst teams win about
      35% of their
      > > games and that corresponds to replacement level, then shouldn't
      > > basketball's worst teams set replacement level?  Basically
      an average
      > > player on the worst team is probably a bum.  Think of all
      the guys on
      > > those rebuilding Chicago teams as pretty much replacement level
      (that
      >
      > Makes sense ... one possible complication though is the
      interaction
      > between players on a team.  Maybe those Bulls teams had a bunch
      of players
      > whose win-loss level was, oh 35%.  And maybe that is the NBA's
      replacement
      > level.  Any squad, even the Lakers, will have some of these
      players.  But
      > if a team has NOTHING but 35% players, it's resulting won-loss
      record
      > might end up worse than 35%.  Because we can't assume that a
      team's
      > won-loss record will literally be the sum of its individual
      players'
      > records.  Maybe such a team should end up winning only 25% of
      its games.
      >

      This is getting at what an individual win-loss record should mean.  We could go 'round and 'round


      > > > So in your example question, my off-the-cuff estimate was
      > > incorrect, the
      > > > 8-8 player contributed more to the team.
      > >
      > > No, you were actually originally right.  8 - 6.6 = 1.4,
      not 2.4 as
      > > you wrote down.  The breakeven point at which these 2 guys
      are
      > > equivalently above the replacement level is 0.330.
      >
      > Interesting, because these replacement levels we're bandying about
      are
      > probably in the neighborhood of where a realistic NBA replacement
      level
      > would be.  If it is indeed at .20 or .25, then then 8-8 player
      has
      > contributed more than the 5-2 player.  At .33, it's a
      wash.  At the Bill
      > James figure of .35, the 5-2 player is better. 
      >
      > All those replacement levels are plausible (in the absence of hard
      data),
      > but they lead to different conclusions. 
      >

      They change the marginal players, I think.  I don't think they have a huge effect on the great players.  They shuffle them around a little, but Duncan is going to be best no matter what replacement level you set for this season.  Pierce is going to be up there.  Again, where it matters are for the Iversons and Stackhouses of the world -- the inefficient but productive scorers.  And, I should have thought of this before, these guys are where there are problems because they are bad players when they are on bad defensive teams.  On good defensive clubs, they are good players.  And a good defensive club is partially dependent upon an individual's ability, but very much dependent upon a coach and teammates.  So, if Stackhouse is scoring 30 ppg with a rating of 100 on a team like the  Pistons with a Drating of 97, he is well above replacement value.  But if he's doing the same on a team like the Pistons of a couple years ago with a Drating of 106, he's killing them.  Both of these guys have been players on some horrible clubs, teams that didn't play defense.  They both have good coaches now.  If Larry Brown leaves Philly (maybe even if Mutombo stays), Philly's D falls.  If Ben Wallace and Cliff Robinson leave Detroit, the Pistons' D falls.

      Ugh.  Anyway, in a preliminary set of numbers, here are the offensive and defensive ratings for this year's players, along with "Effective Games" and their win-loss records.  I think there are slight errors with the offensive and defensive ratings because they don't match what my spreadsheets get, but the errors are fairly minor.  The win% is just Rtg^16.5/(Rtg^16.5+ DRtg^16.5) -- some like a different exponent.  I am personally trying to migrate away from this form because it is way to sensitive to pace.  I'm just not there yet.

      PlayerTeamEffGiORtgiDRtgPythWinpNetWNetLOverReplmt
      abdur-rahim,sharatl14.8102.7102.00.537.87.04.1
      bowdler,calatl1.993.0103.80.140.31.7-0.2
      crawford,chrisatl0.694.3104.50.150.10.5-0.1
      davis,emanualatl2.985.6106.40.030.12.8-0.6
      glover,dionatl5.094.7104.20.170.94.1-0.4
      henderson,alanatl1.599.4102.50.380.60.90.2
      johnson,dermarratl7.296.8103.30.251.85.40.0
      kukoc,toniatl5.799.5104.80.301.74.00.3
      mattola,hannoatl4.791.7105.80.090.44.3-0.8
      mohammed,nazratl10.096.3101.60.292.97.10.4
      newble,iraatl4.7108.3105.00.622.91.81.8
      ratliff,theoatl0.486.8100.30.080.00.3-0.1
      simpkins,dickeyatl0.0214.6112.81.000.00.00.0
      slater,reggieatl0.1112.5106.40.720.10.00.1
      smith,leonatl0.4101.4100.00.560.20.20.1
      strickland,markatl2.592.4103.60.130.32.2-0.3
      terry,jasonatl13.4110.6105.00.709.44.06.1
      vaughn,jacqueatl6.2108.4106.50.573.62.72.0
      anderson,kennybos10.2100.098.80.555.64.63.1
      battie,tonybos7.6114.396.60.947.20.55.3
      blount,markbos1.493.196.20.370.50.90.2
      brown,kedrickbos1.088.193.20.280.30.70.0
      brown,randybos0.077.096.70.020.00.00.0
      delk,tonybos2.394.699.90.290.71.60.1
      forte,josephbos0.157.698.40.000.00.10.0
      johnson,joebos3.9102.6100.70.582.31.71.3
      mccarty,walterbos2.1111.4100.30.851.80.31.3
      palacio,miltbos1.697.9100.80.380.61.00.2
      pierce,paulbos16.6108.896.50.8814.62.010.4
      potapenko,vitalybos4.4102.299.80.602.71.81.5
      rogers,rodneybos2.2107.2100.20.751.70.61.1
      strickland,erickbos5.6105.5100.60.693.91.72.5
      walker,antoinebos16.697.898.00.498.18.44.0
      williams,ericbos6.294.3100.10.271.74.50.2
      augmon,staceycha4.499.8100.70.462.02.30.9
      brown,p.j.cha10.3114.098.60.929.50.96.9
      bullard,mattcha1.092.3105.50.100.10.9-0.2
      campbell,eldencha10.8107.396.30.869.31.66.6
      davis,baroncha15.3103.6101.00.609.26.15.4
      drew,brycecha2.3110.0103.00.751.70.61.1
      haston,kirkcha0.371.9102.40.000.00.3-0.1
      lynch,georgecha3.386.699.80.090.33.0-0.5
      magloire,jamaalcha6.2111.297.50.905.60.64.0
      mashburn,jamalcha7.4101.4102.30.463.44.01.6
      moiso,jeromecha0.367.294.50.000.00.3-0.1
      nailon,leecha7.8100.7102.90.413.24.61.3
      recasner,eldridgcha0.0110.20.0
      traylor,robertcha2.794.096.40.401.11.60.4
      wesley,davidcha9.798.5105.20.252.47.30.0
      anthony,gregchi4.3100.3105.80.291.23.00.2
      artest,ronchi4.596.898.80.421.92.60.8
      bagaric,daliborchi2.483.5102.90.030.12.3-0.5
      best,travischi3.2105.3106.70.451.41.80.6
      chandler,tysonchi5.996.6101.60.301.84.10.3
      crawford,jamalchi1.9102.2107.30.310.61.30.1
      curry,eddychi5.0100.8104.60.351.83.30.5
      fizer,marcuschi8.493.7105.40.131.17.4-1.0
      guyton,a.j.chi2.396.5109.60.110.22.0-0.3
      hassell,trentonchi8.398.4107.20.201.66.7-0.4
      hoiberg,fredchi4.5110.6104.70.713.21.32.1
      mercer,ronchi6.688.8108.90.030.26.4-1.4
      miller,bradchi6.7109.9103.20.744.91.73.2
      oakley,charleschi5.477.3103.20.010.05.4-1.3
      ollie,kevinchi4.197.0107.40.160.63.5-0.4
      richardson,normchi0.2104.5111.30.260.10.10.0
      robinson,eddiechi2.793.1106.30.100.32.4-0.4
      rose,jalenchi5.7103.3107.20.352.03.70.6
      coles,bimbocle2.099.8109.90.170.31.6-0.2
      davis,rickycle7.7101.0106.80.282.25.50.3
      diop,desaganacle0.465.1103.20.000.00.4-0.1
      doleac,michaelcle2.791.3105.50.090.22.5-0.4
      hill,tyronecle3.590.8103.20.110.43.1-0.5
      ilgauskas,zydruncle6.3100.0103.60.362.24.00.7
      jones,jumainecle8.3101.0103.60.403.35.01.2
      langdon,trajancle1.8101.2107.90.260.51.30.0
      mihm,chriscle7.590.7104.30.090.76.9-1.2
      miller,andrecle14.0112.4106.30.7210.04.06.5
      murray,lamondcle10.7103.4105.80.414.46.31.7
      person,wesleycle10.9117.2107.70.808.72.16.0
      skinner,briancle3.6105.7102.60.622.31.41.3
      stith,bryantcle2.399.0106.00.250.61.80.0
      trepagnier,jeffcle0.465.696.00.000.00.4-0.1
      abdul-wahad,taridal0.133.697.10.000.00.10.0
      bell,charliedal0.097.00.0
      bradley,shawndal3.1112.999.00.902.80.32.0
      buckner,gregdal3.2115.5104.90.832.60.51.8
      eschmeyer,evandal1.297.0101.40.320.40.80.1
      finley,michaeldal11.8108.3107.70.536.25.63.3
      griffin,adriandal5.4112.3104.00.784.21.22.8
      hardaway,timdal4.5102.6108.20.291.33.20.2
      harvey,donnelldal0.599.0102.30.370.20.30.1
      howard,juwandal7.1104.4105.90.443.13.91.4
      johnson,averydal0.5100.4109.10.200.10.40.0
      lafrentz,raefdal3.7104.099.70.672.51.21.5
      manning,dannydal2.298.5102.50.340.71.40.2
      martin,darrickdal0.124.0103.20.000.00.10.0
      najera,eduardodal4.7114.8103.50.854.00.72.8
      nash,stevedal12.3117.6109.60.769.42.96.3
      newman,johnnydal2.4108.7107.70.541.31.10.7
      nowitzki,dirkdal14.2118.7101.80.9313.11.09.6
      vanexel,nickdal2.8106.7108.40.441.21.60.5
      wang,zhizhidal2.2110.5105.60.681.50.70.9
      abdul-wahad,tariden1.888.3105.00.050.11.7-0.4
      anderson,chrisden1.192.099.00.230.20.80.0
      arroyo,carlosden0.9103.6109.80.280.20.60.0
      bateer,menkden1.789.2105.30.060.11.6-0.3
      bowen,ryanden5.5109.7104.50.693.81.72.4
      cheaney,calbertden6.297.8107.20.181.15.1-0.4
      hamilton,zendonden3.697.2104.30.240.92.70.0
      hardaway,timden1.795.0105.60.150.21.4-0.2
      harvey,donnellden2.5107.9103.90.651.60.91.0
      howard,juwanden4.6100.6106.20.291.33.30.2
      johnson,averyden4.3111.7109.30.592.61.81.5
      lafrentz,raefden7.9108.2100.50.776.11.84.1
      lenard,voshonden6.898.8106.40.231.55.3-0.2
      mccloud,georgeden7.191.1106.60.070.56.6-1.3
      mcdyess,antonioden1.2111.0102.00.801.00.20.7
      posey,jamesden10.096.2102.70.252.57.50.0
      rider,isaiahden0.798.4107.00.200.10.60.0
      satterfield,kennden2.287.9106.10.040.12.1-0.5
      scott,shawnelleden1.299.9104.40.330.40.80.1
      vanexel,nickden8.1103.1109.10.282.35.80.3
      williams,scottden3.089.1102.70.090.32.8-0.5
      alexander,victordet0.477.9101.20.010.00.4-0.1
      atkins,chuckydet9.2108.1104.40.645.93.33.6
      barros,danadet2.495.5103.80.200.51.9-0.1
      barry,jondet6.8120.1101.00.956.50.44.7
      cardinal,briandet0.1134.0104.30.980.10.00.1
      curry,michaeldet6.7100.9104.20.372.54.20.8
      jones,damondet3.3106.1104.80.551.81.51.0
      moore,mikkidet0.8103.798.80.690.60.30.4
      rebraca,zeljkodet4.8103.097.00.733.51.32.3
      robinson,cliffdet12.698.0100.60.395.07.61.8
      stackhouse,jerrydet13.8101.3102.80.446.17.82.6
      varda,ratkodet0.099.3104.10.320.00.00.0
      wallace,bendet13.1111.489.70.9712.70.49.4
      white,rodneydet0.678.997.20.030.00.6-0.1
      williamson,corlidet7.3105.1101.70.634.62.72.8
      arenas,gilbertgsw5.0108.6106.00.603.02.01.7
      blaylock,mookiegsw1.889.9108.30.040.11.7-0.4
      dampier,erickgsw7.689.9103.70.090.76.9-1.2
      fortson,dannygsw10.4102.5103.30.474.85.62.2
      foyle,adonalgsw6.390.6100.20.161.05.3-0.6
      garrett,deangsw0.158.599.00.000.00.10.0
      henderson,cedricgsw0.390.2103.90.090.00.30.0
      hughes,larrygsw9.398.7106.30.232.17.2-0.2
      jackson,marcgsw0.7102.8105.90.380.30.40.1
      jamison,antawngsw13.3107.1108.10.466.17.12.8
      mills,chrisgsw4.0106.4108.20.431.72.30.7
      murphy,troygsw4.998.2106.60.211.03.9-0.2
      oliver,deangsw0.486.1111.10.010.00.4-0.1
      richardson,jasongsw11.3100.1107.70.232.68.7-0.2
      sura,bobgsw6.7107.9106.50.553.73.02.0
      brown,tierrehou1.591.4106.70.070.11.4-0.3
      cato,kelvinhou8.0118.5102.70.917.30.75.3
      collier,jasonhou1.2101.2107.40.270.30.90.0
      francis,stevehou11.4102.1106.40.333.87.61.0
      griffin,eddiehou7.599.0103.30.332.55.00.6
      langhi,danhou1.590.7108.50.050.11.4-0.3
      mobley,cuttinohou13.7105.2107.60.415.58.12.1
      morris,terencehou3.890.7106.90.060.23.6-0.7
      norris,moochiehou8.398.1108.20.171.46.9-0.7
      rice,glenhou2.394.9110.00.080.22.1-0.4
      thomas,kennyhou11.3101.7104.30.404.56.81.7
      torres,oscarhou3.8100.6109.40.200.83.0-0.2
      williams,walthou4.4106.3108.60.411.82.60.7
      willis,kevinhou3.5100.3102.00.431.52.00.6
      artest,ronind3.993.196.90.341.32.50.4
      bender,jonathanind5.799.7104.00.331.93.80.5
      best,travisind3.3103.9102.30.561.91.41.0
      brewer,jamisonind0.190.9101.40.140.00.10.0
      brezec,primozind0.6109.1105.50.640.40.20.2
      croshere,austinind4.7102.4101.40.542.52.11.3
      foster,jeffind7.3101.098.70.594.43.02.5
      harrington,alind4.8100.6102.00.442.12.70.9
      mercer,ronind0.787.2106.40.040.00.6-0.1
      miller,bradind3.8121.1101.50.953.60.22.7
      miller,reggieind11.1121.0105.30.9110.11.07.3
      ollie,kevinind1.8115.8103.30.871.50.21.1
      o'neal,jermaineind13.2100.097.80.597.85.44.5
      richardson,normind0.034.1111.10.000.00.00.0
      rogers,carlosind0.6112.0100.60.850.50.10.3
      rose,jalenind8.6102.3103.70.443.84.81.7
      sundov,brunoind0.380.099.70.030.00.3-0.1
      tinsley,jamaalind11.590.7101.00.151.79.8-1.2
      boykins,earllac2.6102.1108.50.270.71.90.1
      brand,eltonlac14.3117.399.90.9313.30.99.7
      dooling,keyonlac0.591.0108.00.060.00.5-0.1
      ekezie,obinnalac0.695.3103.40.210.10.50.0
      fowlkes,tremainlac1.4103.3105.70.400.60.80.2
      jamison,haroldlac0.6114.4106.30.770.40.10.3
      maggette,coreylac7.1105.7105.30.523.73.41.9
      mcinnis,jefflac12.0105.4108.40.394.77.41.7
      miles,dariuslac8.697.2100.60.363.15.51.0
      odom,lamarlac4.692.5102.60.150.73.9-0.4
      olowokandi,michalac12.287.698.90.121.410.8-1.6
      overton,douglac0.578.9106.80.010.00.4-0.1
      piatkowski,ericlac6.7119.9106.80.875.90.94.2
      recasner,eldridglac0.195.3109.30.090.00.10.0
      richardson,quentlac8.1108.5104.50.655.22.83.2
      rooks,seanlac2.393.9104.40.150.31.9-0.2
      bryant,kobelal15.3110.5100.60.8212.62.78.8
      crispin,josephlal0.179.9104.00.010.00.10.0
      fisher,dereklal7.1114.4103.00.856.01.14.2
      fox,ricklal9.4101.2100.80.524.94.62.5
      george,deveanlal6.0104.598.80.714.31.72.8
      horry,robertlal7.8111.996.80.927.10.75.2
      hunter,lindseylal6.297.5101.90.332.04.20.5
      madsen,marklal2.1110.4101.20.811.70.41.2
      mccoy,jelanilal0.391.4100.10.180.10.30.0
      medvedenko,stanlal2.9101.5100.40.541.61.30.9
      o'neal,shaquillelal13.1114.096.50.9412.30.89.0
      penberthy,mikelal0.1155.186.11.000.10.00.0
      richmond,mitchlal2.496.9101.90.300.71.70.1
      shaw,brianlal2.198.499.50.461.01.10.4
      walker,samakilal7.1110.996.30.916.50.64.7
      anderson,nickmem0.874.3103.90.000.00.8-0.2
      austin,isaacmem1.283.1102.30.030.01.2-0.3
      battier,shanemem12.5103.0105.00.425.27.32.1
      buford,rodneymem6.293.8106.20.120.75.5-0.8
      dickerson,michaemem0.584.4108.00.020.00.5-0.1
      fontaine,isaacmem0.265.7111.30.000.00.20.0
      fotsis,antonismem1.290.9104.20.090.11.0-0.2
      gasol,paumem13.9105.9102.50.638.85.15.3
      gill,eddiemem1.394.6108.20.100.11.2-0.2
      knight,brevinmem4.796.3103.00.251.23.60.0
      long,grantmem7.088.4105.80.050.36.6-1.4
      massenburg,tonymem5.196.3102.90.251.33.80.0
      perry,elliottmem0.272.1104.10.000.00.20.0
      solomon,willemem3.287.8106.70.040.13.1-0.7
      swift,stromilemem7.6101.4101.00.523.93.62.0
      williams,jasonmem10.694.2105.50.131.49.2-1.2
      wright,lorenzenmem5.893.9101.90.211.24.6-0.3
      allen,malikmia0.6104.796.80.790.50.10.3
      brown,ernestmia0.133.795.60.000.00.10.0
      carter,anthonymia4.081.798.80.040.23.8-0.8
      ellis,laphonsomia5.794.1100.10.261.54.20.1
      gatling,chrismia3.294.598.30.341.12.10.3
      gill,kendallmia5.885.599.80.070.45.4-1.0
      grant,brianmia9.598.297.80.514.94.62.5
      hamilton,tangmia0.3106.798.70.780.20.10.2
      house,eddiemia4.791.9100.70.180.83.8-0.3
      jackson,jimmymia6.596.399.80.362.34.20.7
      james,mikemia0.585.297.80.090.00.4-0.1
      jones,eddiemia14.0108.998.10.8511.92.18.4
      mack,sammia0.576.2100.90.010.00.5-0.1
      marks,seanmia1.387.197.30.140.21.1-0.1
      mourning,alonzomia12.1101.894.30.789.52.76.4
      stepania,vladimimia3.592.394.10.421.52.00.6
      strickland,rodmia9.8100.9100.40.525.14.72.6
      allen,raymil11.6115.3106.10.809.22.36.4
      alston,rafermil2.497.2104.00.250.61.80.0
      anthony,gregmil2.089.2105.70.060.11.9-0.4
      caffey,jasonmil0.9100.6107.60.250.20.70.0
      cassell,sammil12.5110.6106.10.678.34.15.2
      foster,gregmil0.177.7101.60.010.00.10.0
      ham,darvinmil3.798.8106.00.240.92.80.0
      johnson,ervinmil5.295.1100.80.271.43.80.1
      mason,anthonymil11.6109.6105.20.667.73.94.8
      pope,markmil1.689.8104.40.080.11.5-0.3
      przybilla,joelmil5.396.698.00.442.42.91.0
      redd,michaelmil5.4114.9106.40.784.21.22.9
      robinson,glennmil11.7101.3102.90.445.16.62.2
      thomas,timmil8.098.4104.80.262.15.90.1
      avery,williammin0.978.5105.70.010.00.9-0.2
      billups,chaunceymin9.7114.4105.00.807.81.95.4
      brandon,terrellmin4.4113.9102.40.853.80.62.7
      evans,mauricemin0.1104.9110.30.310.00.10.0
      garnett,kevinmin16.3108.797.60.8614.02.49.9
      garrett,deanmin0.673.996.20.010.00.6-0.1
      jackson,marcmin1.192.1103.20.130.11.0-0.1
      lopez,felipemin1.992.4104.90.110.21.7-0.3
      mitchell,sammin2.5100.6106.10.290.71.80.1
      nesterovic,radosmin9.799.6100.50.464.55.22.0
      pack,robertmin0.988.9103.60.070.10.8-0.2
      peeler,anthonymin6.6106.3104.90.553.62.92.0
      smith,joemin8.3112.7101.70.857.01.34.9
      szczerbiak,wallymin12.9111.6105.50.719.23.76.0
      trent,garymin4.3106.6102.70.652.81.51.7
      woods,lorenmin1.887.998.10.140.31.6-0.2
      armstrong,brandonjn0.777.2102.00.010.00.6-0.2
      collins,jasonnjn4.6100.898.50.602.71.81.6
      dial,derricknjn0.982.098.00.050.00.9-0.2
      goodrich,stevenjn0.257.099.50.000.00.10.0
      harris,luciousnjn5.2111.799.70.874.50.73.2
      jefferson,richarnjn6.9102.298.20.664.52.32.8
      johnson,anthonynjn1.295.596.40.460.60.70.3
      kidd,jasonnjn14.7101.195.40.7210.64.16.9
      kittles,kerrynjn11.0107.898.40.829.02.06.3
      macculloch,toddnjn6.8111.496.30.926.30.64.6
      marshall,donnynjn

      (Message over 64 KB, truncated)
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.