- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
>

+FTA/Y

> i calculate possession factor (touches per min) by:

>

> poss fact =

> shots + passes + turnovers + times fouled = FGA + AST/X + TO

>

Let me also ask whether the factor matches what you would see in a

> where X and Y are calculated yearly and by team...

game. For instance, if we calculate a player's touches per minute to

be 2 per minute, would that mean that, if he played 35 minutes, he

would touch the ball, on average, 70 distinct times in those 35

minutes?

I ask because the formula seems to not include rebounds. Obviously,

guys touch the ball when they get rebounds. If X and Y are team and

year specific, then it is possible to have a couple guys with very

different rebounding totals with similar possession factors. For

instance, Jon Barry and Ben Wallace aren't terribly different in the

main factors you list. Wallace has lower totals in all but FTA. But

he had 800 more rebounds than Barry. How do these guys stack up?

What was the original goal of the stat? Is it better to say that it

is an estimate of touches on the offensive end?

DeanO - Looks like a good formula to me. In addition to technical fouls, the

other (more minor) complication is offensive fouls. I say more minor

because these fouls don't affect a player's possessions, nor his free

throws -- they represent "PFs drawn" but they are not part of "PFs drawn

by an offensive player".

Jeez, 30% of FTAs being due to technicals, that surely must lead the

league, maybe even be a record. I suppose some set-shooting specialists,

the Craig Hodges/Steve Kerr types, might conceivably be up there too, but

they may not get enough technical FTAs to match JW.

--MKT

On Mon, 29 Apr 2002, alleyoop2 wrote:

> Seems to me it wouldn't be that hard to estimate if you know

> opponents' personal fouls, which are in Doug Steele's stats every

> morning:

>

> Times Fouled = (My FTA / Team FTA) / Opponent PF

>

> Technical fouls are the only thing that would make it tricky, and

> then only for a guy like Jason Williams who almost never gets to the

> line but shoots all his team's technical foul shots (I did a study on

> this for the book and was amazed: Williams got nearly 30% of his FTA

> from T's)

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

> --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:

> >

> >

> > the key factor is of course a player's FTA, because FTA are the

> results of

> > fouls (technical fouls are but a very small sampling), but i also

> take into

> > consideration the player's team's total FTA (tougher when someone

> plays for

> > two or more teams in a season), plus the team's total possessions...

>

>

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