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Re: [APBR_analysis] Adrian Dantley study

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  • Ed Weiland
    ... Here s some stuff I dug up. I din t format anything, so I hope it all is at least semi-comprehensible. Buffalo: Records Before Dantley ( 75-76): 46-36 With
    Message 1 of 7 , May 1, 2001
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      --- Dean Oliver <deano@...> wrote:
      >
      > Since everyone is interested in whether Dantley
      > really has the quals for
      > the HOF, I'd like to look into it a bit more. I am
      > not going to have time
      > in the next week or so to do what I want to do with
      > Adrian Dantley --
      > which is understand how his presence influenced the
      > teams he was on. This
      > is basic -- what were his teams' records before and
      > after his arrival.

      Here's some stuff I dug up. I din't format anything,
      so I hope it all is at least semi-comprehensible.

      Buffalo:

      Records
      Before Dantley ('75-76): 46-36
      With Dantley ('76-77): 30-52
      After Dantley ('77-78): 27-55

      Offense PPG FG%
      Before Dantley: 107.3 .476
      With Dantley: 105.0 .450
      After Dantley: 105.3 .466

      Defense
      Before Dantley: 106.4 .461
      With Dantley: 109.5 .478
      After Dantley: 109.0 .476

      Note: Twenty games into the '76-77 season, Buffalo
      sent Bob McAdoo to the Knicks for John Gianelli and
      cash. They also dealt Jim McMillian--third leading
      scorer in '75-76--before the season. I suspect these
      two deals had something to do with the 16-game drop in
      the standings. Dantley was voted Rookie-of-the-year.

      Dantley was dealt to the Pacers after his rookie
      season, '76-77, who sent him to the Lakers after 23
      games that same season. I have no idea what the with
      and without Dantley breakdowns are for each team, but
      here's how they did for the entire season:

      Indiana:

      Records
      BD ('76-77): 36-46
      WD ('77-78): 31-51
      AD ('78-79): 38-44

      Offense
      BD: 106.8 .449
      WD: 108.6 .450
      AD: 108.6 .475

      Defense
      BD: 108.6 .472
      WD: 111.1 .474
      AD: 110.2 .478

      I don't know how much Dantley could have affected
      Indiana in just 23 games. He was their leading scorer
      at 26.5 ppg. The 7-game increase in '78-79 could have
      been due to the Pacers signing Alex English off of
      Milwaukee's bench as a free agent moreso than ridding
      themselves of Dantley in exchange for James Edwards,
      Earl Tatum and cash.

      Los Angeles

      Records:
      BD ("76-77): 53-29
      WD ('77-78): 45-37
      ('78-79): 47-35
      AD ('79-80): 60-22 NBA Champs

      Offense:
      BD: 106.9 .478
      WD: 110.3 .487
      112.9 .517
      AD: 115.1 .529

      Defense:
      BD: 104.1 .452
      WD: 107.6 .463
      109.9 .484
      AD: 109.2 .470

      Before and during the '77-78 season the Lakers
      replaced four of their five leading scorers--Cazzie
      Russell, Lucious Allen, Kermit Washington and Earl
      Tatum--from the previous season. They replaced these
      four with Dantley, Jamaal Wilkes, Norm Nixon and
      Charlie Scott. It would be difficult, IMO, to lay any
      blame on Dantley for the decrease in wins based on
      this. The year Dantley left for Utah, Magic Johnson
      came aboard via the draft. The rest, as they say, is
      history.

      Utah

      Records
      BD ('78-79): 26-56
      WD ('79-80): 24-58
      ('80-81): 28-54
      ('81-82): 25-57
      ('82-83): 30-52 Dantley injured, played 22 games
      ('83-84): 45-37
      ('84-85): 41-41
      ('85-86): 42-40
      AD ('86-87): 44-38

      Offense
      BD: 108.3 .468
      WD: 102.4 .496
      101.2 .488
      110.9 .494
      109.0 .480
      115.0 .498
      109.0 .476
      108.2 .488
      AD: 107.9 .464

      Defense
      BD: 114.6 .481
      WD: 108.4 .496
      107.1 .489
      116.6 .509
      113.2 .478
      113.8 .476
      109.1 .464
      108.5 .473
      AD: 107.5 .456

      In '82-83, when the def. FG% dropped .031, legendary
      shot-blocker Mark Eaton joined the team. After moving
      from New orleans in '79, the Jazz almost entirely
      rebuilt the team. After that, they went with a
      rotation featuring mainly Dantley, Darrell Griffith
      and Rickey Green, with the likes of Dan Schayes, Ben
      Poquette and John Drew sprinkled in here and there.
      They got as good as mediocre with Dantley as the top
      gun.


      Detroit
      Dantley was dealt from Detroit to Dallas for Mark
      Aguirre midway through the '88-89 season.

      Records
      BD ('85-86): 46-36
      WD ('86-87): 52-30
      ('87-88): 54-28
      WD/AD ('88-89): 63-19 NBA Champions
      AD ('89-90): 59-23 NBA Champions

      Offense
      BD: 114.2 .484
      WD: 111.2 .490
      109.2 .493
      W/AD 106.6 .494
      AD: 104.3 .478

      Defense
      BD: 113.0 .492
      WD: 107.8 .462
      104.1 .467
      A/WD 100.8 .447
      AD: 98.3 .447

      The defense did improve dramatically when Dantley
      arrived. But Dantley replaced Kelly Tripucka, who was
      never confused with a great defender, and added Dennis
      Rodman that year. Since the defense suffered no
      noticeable lapse when Dantley left, I think we can
      safely cradit the improvement to both Rodman and coach
      Chuck Daly. The team did take a great Lakers team to 7
      games in the '88 finals with Dantley playing a major
      role.

      Dallas

      records
      BD ('87-88): 53-29
      B/WD ('88-89): 38-44
      WD: ('89-90): 47-35
      AD: ('90-91): 28-54

      offense
      BD: 109.3 .475
      B/WD: 103.5 .469
      WD: 102.2 .475
      AD: 99.9 .471

      defense
      BD: 104.9 .470
      B/WD: 104.7 .469
      WD: 102.2 .469
      AD: 104.5 .482

      Dallas kept the same Blackman-Harper-Donaldson-Perkins
      core intact during Dantley's stay. Roy Tarpley was an
      infrequent, but impact, roster member. In fact, just
      briely going through the late-eighties Mavs, it seems
      that they were fine as long as Roy Tarpley was healthy
      and in the lineup. It didn't matter if Dantley,
      Aguirre or Morlon Wiley was the SF.

      Milwaukee

      Dantley played ten games for Milwaukee during the
      '90-91 season. As if it matters:

      records
      BD ('89-90): 44-38
      WD ('90-91): 48-34
      AD ('91-92): 31-51

      offense
      BD: 106.0 .473
      WD: 106.4 .480
      AD: 105.0 .460

      defense
      BD: 106.8 .479
      WD: 104.0 .486
      AD: 106.7 .498



      Dantley's most impressive career numbers are 23,177
      points, 24.3 ppg and a .540 career FG%. Pretty
      impressive, but it's appears he didn't have a huge
      effect on the teams he was on. This doesn't even get
      into the seemingly low standards already in place for
      the HOF.

      Ed Weiland





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    • msg_53@hotmail.com
      Good work, Ed! Scanning the Dantley history line does show some things. For one, Dantley seems to raise the team shooting pct., which is not surprising, and
      Message 2 of 7 , May 2, 2001
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        Good work, Ed!
        Scanning the Dantley history line does show some things. For one,
        Dantley seems to raise the team shooting pct., which is not
        surprising, and the opponents' pct. as well.
        I have the opinion that a coach's job is to substitute players; at
        the pro level, this is perhaps his main job. If a player is getting
        minutes, it must be for a reason. Certainly a player does not get
        playing time because he is hurting his own team.
        A team with very few scoring options goes out and gets a scorer.
        Then, they utilize that guy's abilities. AD was near the league
        leaders in minutes his entire stay in Utah, yet nowhere else.
        In Detroit, where his playoff legacy was made, AD led the Pistons
        in scoring in '87 and '88 despite being 3rd/4th in minutes. Bill
        Laimbeer was the only other frontline scoring threat.
        In 23 playoff games in 1988, Dantley shot 52% while Detroit's
        other Big 3 (Thomas, Dumars, Laimbeer) shot 46%. In the Eastern
        finals, AD's offensive wizardry totally confounded the Celtics, and
        basically ended their dynasty.
        On a bad team, everybody takes the blame, even the player who
        carries the team. Utah was nothing when Dantley arrived (well, some
        nice scenery there); he gave way to the Malone/Stockton era.
        Dantley is at the top of all-time players for career shooting
        pct. When you factor in FTs, he shot over 60%, 2nd only to Gilmore,
        and maybe Reggie Miller (another great one-dimensional player).

        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Ed Weiland <weiland1029@y...> wrote:
        >
        > Here's some stuff I dug up. I din't format anything,
        > so I hope it all is at least semi-comprehensible.
        >
        > Buffalo:
        >
        > Records
        > Before Dantley ('75-76): 46-36
        > With Dantley ('76-77): 30-52
        > After Dantley ('77-78): 27-55
        >
        > Offense PPG FG%
        > Before Dantley: 107.3 .476
        > With Dantley: 105.0 .450
        > After Dantley: 105.3 .466
        >
        > Defense
        > Before Dantley: 106.4 .461
        > With Dantley: 109.5 .478
        > After Dantley: 109.0 .476
        >
        > Note: Twenty games into the '76-77 season, Buffalo
        > sent Bob McAdoo to the Knicks for John Gianelli and
        > cash. They also dealt Jim McMillian--third leading
        > scorer in '75-76--before the season. I suspect these
        > two deals had something to do with the 16-game drop in
        > the standings. Dantley was voted Rookie-of-the-year.
        >
        > Dantley was dealt to the Pacers after his rookie
        > season, '76-77, who sent him to the Lakers after 23
        > games that same season. I have no idea what the with
        > and without Dantley breakdowns are for each team, but
        > here's how they did for the entire season:
        >
        > Indiana:
        >
        > Records
        > BD ('76-77): 36-46
        > WD ('77-78): 31-51
        > AD ('78-79): 38-44
        >
        > Offense
        > BD: 106.8 .449
        > WD: 108.6 .450
        > AD: 108.6 .475
        >
        > Defense
        > BD: 108.6 .472
        > WD: 111.1 .474
        > AD: 110.2 .478
        >
        > I don't know how much Dantley could have affected
        > Indiana in just 23 games. He was their leading scorer
        > at 26.5 ppg. The 7-game increase in '78-79 could have
        > been due to the Pacers signing Alex English off of
        > Milwaukee's bench as a free agent moreso than ridding
        > themselves of Dantley in exchange for James Edwards,
        > Earl Tatum and cash.
        >
        > Los Angeles
        >
        > Records:
        > BD ("76-77): 53-29
        > WD ('77-78): 45-37
        > ('78-79): 47-35
        > AD ('79-80): 60-22 NBA Champs
        >
        > Offense:
        > BD: 106.9 .478
        > WD: 110.3 .487
        > 112.9 .517
        > AD: 115.1 .529
        >
        > Defense:
        > BD: 104.1 .452
        > WD: 107.6 .463
        > 109.9 .484
        > AD: 109.2 .470
        >
        > Before and during the '77-78 season the Lakers
        > replaced four of their five leading scorers--Cazzie
        > Russell, Lucious Allen, Kermit Washington and Earl
        > Tatum--from the previous season. They replaced these
        > four with Dantley, Jamaal Wilkes, Norm Nixon and
        > Charlie Scott. It would be difficult, IMO, to lay any
        > blame on Dantley for the decrease in wins based on
        > this. The year Dantley left for Utah, Magic Johnson
        > came aboard via the draft. The rest, as they say, is
        > history.
        >
        > Utah
        >
        > Records
        > BD ('78-79): 26-56
        > WD ('79-80): 24-58
        > ('80-81): 28-54
        > ('81-82): 25-57
        > ('82-83): 30-52 Dantley injured, played 22 games
        > ('83-84): 45-37
        > ('84-85): 41-41
        > ('85-86): 42-40
        > AD ('86-87): 44-38
        >
        > Offense
        > BD: 108.3 .468
        > WD: 102.4 .496
        > 101.2 .488
        > 110.9 .494
        > 109.0 .480
        > 115.0 .498
        > 109.0 .476
        > 108.2 .488
        > AD: 107.9 .464
        >
        > Defense
        > BD: 114.6 .481
        > WD: 108.4 .496
        > 107.1 .489
        > 116.6 .509
        > 113.2 .478
        > 113.8 .476
        > 109.1 .464
        > 108.5 .473
        > AD: 107.5 .456
        >
        > In '82-83, when the def. FG% dropped .031, legendary
        > shot-blocker Mark Eaton joined the team. After moving
        > from New orleans in '79, the Jazz almost entirely
        > rebuilt the team. After that, they went with a
        > rotation featuring mainly Dantley, Darrell Griffith
        > and Rickey Green, with the likes of Dan Schayes, Ben
        > Poquette and John Drew sprinkled in here and there.
        > They got as good as mediocre with Dantley as the top
        > gun.
        >
        >
        > Detroit
        > Dantley was dealt from Detroit to Dallas for Mark
        > Aguirre midway through the '88-89 season.
        >
        > Records
        > BD ('85-86): 46-36
        > WD ('86-87): 52-30
        > ('87-88): 54-28
        > WD/AD ('88-89): 63-19 NBA Champions
        > AD ('89-90): 59-23 NBA Champions
        >
        > Offense
        > BD: 114.2 .484
        > WD: 111.2 .490
        > 109.2 .493
        > W/AD 106.6 .494
        > AD: 104.3 .478
        >
        > Defense
        > BD: 113.0 .492
        > WD: 107.8 .462
        > 104.1 .467
        > A/WD 100.8 .447
        > AD: 98.3 .447
        >
        > The defense did improve dramatically when Dantley
        > arrived. But Dantley replaced Kelly Tripucka, who was
        > never confused with a great defender, and added Dennis
        > Rodman that year. Since the defense suffered no
        > noticeable lapse when Dantley left, I think we can
        > safely cradit the improvement to both Rodman and coach
        > Chuck Daly. The team did take a great Lakers team to 7
        > games in the '88 finals with Dantley playing a major
        > role.
        >
        > Dallas
        >
        > records
        > BD ('87-88): 53-29
        > B/WD ('88-89): 38-44
        > WD: ('89-90): 47-35
        > AD: ('90-91): 28-54
        >
        > offense
        > BD: 109.3 .475
        > B/WD: 103.5 .469
        > WD: 102.2 .475
        > AD: 99.9 .471
        >
        > defense
        > BD: 104.9 .470
        > B/WD: 104.7 .469
        > WD: 102.2 .469
        > AD: 104.5 .482
        >
        > Dallas kept the same Blackman-Harper-Donaldson-Perkins
        > core intact during Dantley's stay. Roy Tarpley was an
        > infrequent, but impact, roster member. In fact, just
        > briely going through the late-eighties Mavs, it seems
        > that they were fine as long as Roy Tarpley was healthy
        > and in the lineup. It didn't matter if Dantley,
        > Aguirre or Morlon Wiley was the SF.
        >
        > Milwaukee
        >
        > Dantley played ten games for Milwaukee during the
        > '90-91 season. As if it matters:
        >
        > records
        > BD ('89-90): 44-38
        > WD ('90-91): 48-34
        > AD ('91-92): 31-51
        >
        > offense
        > BD: 106.0 .473
        > WD: 106.4 .480
        > AD: 105.0 .460
        >
        > defense
        > BD: 106.8 .479
        > WD: 104.0 .486
        > AD: 106.7 .498
        >
        >
        >
        > Dantley's most impressive career numbers are 23,177
        > points, 24.3 ppg and a .540 career FG%. Pretty
        > impressive, but it's appears he didn't have a huge
        > effect on the teams he was on. This doesn't even get
        > into the seemingly low standards already in place for
        > the HOF.
        >
        > Ed Weiland
        >
        >
        >
        >
        >
        > __________________________________________________
        > Do You Yahoo!?
        > Yahoo! Auctions - buy the things you want at great prices
        > http://auctions.yahoo.com/
      • Dean Oliver
        ... Thanks, Ed. Exactly what I was curious about. It can be difficult to evaluate players this way because players who are traded often are traded for
        Message 3 of 7 , May 2, 2001
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Ed Weiland <weiland1029@y...> wrote:

          Thanks, Ed. Exactly what I was curious about.

          It can be difficult to evaluate players this way because players who
          are traded often are traded for something viewed as equivalent (at
          least before this era of sign-and-trade/free agency threats). But
          your numbers pretty much rule out Dantley being a significant impact
          team player.

          Dean Oliver
          Journal of Basketball Studies
        • harlanzo@yahoo.com
          Just wondering if Bernard King comes up any differently than Dantley. They are very similar players--with the exception that King wasn t really considered
          Message 4 of 7 , May 3, 2001
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            Just wondering if Bernard King comes up any differently than
            Dantley. They are very similar players--with the exception that King
            wasn't really considered selfish or a malcontent. He also has the NY
            ethos on his side. (Who could forget his duel with Bird in 84).
            Most of the teams he played on improved when he came. But he never
            made a team more than a solid first round playoff team. I am not
            sure if an objective look at the evidence indicates he (as the focus
            of team) pushes a team towards a championship. The question is
            whether that makes him better, worse, or the same as Dantley.


            > Thanks, Ed. Exactly what I was curious about.
            >
            > It can be difficult to evaluate players this way because players
            who
            > are traded often are traded for something viewed as equivalent (at
            > least before this era of sign-and-trade/free agency threats). But
            > your numbers pretty much rule out Dantley being a significant
            impact
            > team player.
            >
            > Dean Oliver
            > Journal of Basketball Studies
          • bchaikin@aol.com
            not quite sure on the topic of this dantley discussion, other than dean asking early about whether he belonged in the HOF, but on the comment ...your numbers
            Message 5 of 7 , May 4, 2001
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              not quite sure on the topic of this dantley discussion, other than dean
              asking early about whether he belonged in the HOF, but on the comment
              "...your numbers pretty much rule out dantley being a significant impact team
              player...", i'm really not quite sure i understand that statement...

              was dantley a "team" player? in the strictest sense i'd say no and i believe
              most would agree on that. he got his points and i'd bet half were on
              isolation plays as opposed to being in what most would think of as the "flow"
              of a team offense. he looked to score, and like most players that think of
              scoring first those points probably came at the expense of other teammates
              getting involved in the team offense....

              keep in mind, however, that a scorer like dantley, when surrounded by
              complementary players, is a huge asset to a team. if you didn't know i was
              talking about dantley, and i told you a player averaged 24 pts/g while
              shooting 54% over his entire and very long 15-16 year career, and for one
              long seven year stretch upped those numbers to 30 pts/g and 56% shooting,
              you'd think that player was great. we're not talking about dominique wilkins
              here who despite a ton of dunks shot 46% for his career. over his career
              dantley played on teams that totaled about a .500 record, but he was the
              leading scorer and offensive threat on almost all of those teams...

              i remember around 1989-90 alot of people saying michael jordan would never
              win anything - that he was a scorer (at that point 6 years in the league and
              career avgs of 33 pts/g and 52% shooting) but not a "team" player. well as
              soon as he got a decent team around him chicago won big. now dantley was not
              michael jordan, but when surrounded by a great team (detroit) he did win
              games...

              but was he an "impact" player? that depends on what your definition of an
              impact player is. if your definition of an impact player is bird, magic, and
              m.j., then no he was not....

              but when i think of an "impact" player i think of someone who has an impact
              on the game itself whenever they play, and believe me - for a 10 year stretch
              there, for every team he played on, the opponents of those teams geared their
              defense to stopping him and him specifically, and few did. in the early and
              mid 1980s, i specifically remember dantley being considered a true superstar
              in the league, and i remember how very often he got double teamed and still
              scored while shooting a high FG%....

              i remember chuck daly was quoted once as saying that what dantley did - score
              without taking time off the clock, i.e. he got to the free throw line late in
              games - was extremely important. and its true (however i also remember
              dantley sitting alot of 4th quarters because he didn't play D for
              detroit).....

              he won two scoring crowns, had amazing stats, and played little if any
              defense. does he belong in the hall of fame? well if similar players like
              george gervin, dominique wilkins, and alex english do, then so does
              dantley....

              bob chaikin
              bchaikin@...











            • Dean Oliver
              ... impact team ... statement... What we didn t see were substantial increases in team wins when Dantley arrived, nor did we see substantial decreases in team
              Message 6 of 7 , May 5, 2001
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                --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
                > "...your numbers pretty much rule out dantley being a significant
                impact team
                > player...", i'm really not quite sure i understand that
                statement...

                What we didn't see were substantial increases in team wins when
                Dantley arrived, nor did we see substantial decreases in team wins
                when Dantley left. That does not mean that he wasn't a good player.
                It means several _possible_ things:

                1. When he was traded, he was traded for talent that was about the
                same as his (Billy Knight in 77, James Edwards in 77, Spencer Haywood
                in 79, Kelly Tripucka and Kent Benson in 86, Mark Aguirre in 89 - No
                HOFers)
                2. His individual skills, as good as they were, did not elevate team
                performance because his offense was very isolated or because his
                defense wasn't particularly good (not sure about that).
                3. Simple bad luck. Detroit and Utah both probably could have
                gotten great with him sticking around.

                Before the entire Dantley discussion, his election to the Hall was a
                foregone conclusion. I remember thinking that he was a legit star of
                the '80's. Both the numbers and the general discussion of his
                attitude and style have changed my opinion some. He probably will
                go, in part because of the consistency argument (similarity to
                'Nique, Gervin, English), an argument I really dislike. My numbers
                do indicate he was an excellent offensive (not just good) player and
                I have a hard time holding team mediocrity against those kind of
                numbers. I have no problem with him being in the Hall.

                Dean Oliver
                Journal of Basketball Studies
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