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Counting good and bad games

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  • Dean Oliver
    I calculate a type of individual offensive-win loss record that just looks at the number of games players have better offensive ratings than defensive ratings
    Message 1 of 10 , Apr 15, 2002
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      I calculate a type of individual offensive-win loss record that just looks at the number of games players have better offensive ratings than defensive ratings (that's a win).  It's not an overall evaluation of a player's ability, but it pretty much has to be good for a player to be considered great, I think.  It basically shows that a player can be consistently efficient.  It doesn't say how many net points they generate, but it gives some flavor for that.  Consistent players are usually consistent because they are both efficient on average and that consistency is in part due to contributing a lot each game (standard deviation of efficiency goes down with square root of the number of possessions used).  The list is usually interesting.  I typically find that the best teams have their best player with an individual win-loss record similar to the team's overall record.  The Lakers are like that this year, as usual.  The Bulls were like that in the glory years.  The best players really define how good that team is.

      Without much further ado, here is this year's list.  Duncan has the most net wins and Olowokandi has the most net losses, neither of which is a surprise.

      Weird ones:  Jordan and Washington in general, Vince Carter had a much better record last year, Marbury had a much better record last year, Kidd is about where he was last year (actually slightly worse), Ben Wallace is much better than last year, Jerry Stackhouse is a bit worse than last year, Allen Iverson is a ways off from last year. 

      (I tried to get this sucker formatted, but we'll see how it comes out...)

      AllIndGWinLoss_FromTable
      FullName tm W L Net
      Jason Terry atl 46 31 15
      Alan Henderson atl 15 11 4
      Ira Newble atl 21 19 2
      Dickey Simpkins atl 1 0 1
      Leon Smith atl 5 4 1
      Reggie Slater atl 2 2 0
      Chris Crawford atl 3 4 -1
      Theo Ratliff atl 1 2 -1
      Shareef Abdur-Rahim atl 36 39 -3
      Mark Strickland atl 18 23 -5
      Cal Bowdler atl 17 27 -10
      Emanual Davis atl 9 19 -10
      Dermarr Johnson atl 29 39 -10
      Toni Kukoc atl 21 36 -15
      Jacque Vaughn atl 32 48 -16
      Dion Glover atl 18 37 -19
      Nazr Mohammed atl 30 50 -20
      Hanno Mottola atl 27 49 -22
      Paul Pierce bos 54 26 28
      Tony Battie bos 49 22 27
      Walter McCarty bos 25 21 4
      Joe Johnson bos 25 23 2
      Antoine Walker bos 40 40 0
      Randy Brown bos 0 1 -1
      Kenny Anderson bos 36 38 -2
      Tony Delk bos 9 11 -2
      Erick Strickland bos 37 39 -2
      Rodney Rogers bos 11 14 -3
      Mark Blount bos 16 20 -4
      Vitaly Potapenko bos 36 40 -4
      Kedrick Brown bos 10 15 -5
      Joseph Forte bos 1 6 -5
      Milt Palacio bos 15 23 -8
      Eric Williams bos 30 42 -12
      P.J. Brown cha 53 26 27
      Elden Campbell cha 46 29 17
      Jamaal Magloire cha 46 34 12
      Baron Davis cha 43 37 6
      Bryce Drew cha 32 26 6
      Jamal Mashburn cha 20 18 2
      Eldridge Recasner cha 0 0 0
      Jerome Moiso cha 6 7 -1
      Kirk Haston cha 6 9 -3
      Matt Bullard cha 10 18 -8
      Robert Traylor cha 24 33 -9
      Stacey Augmon cha 31 43 -12
      David Wesley cha 25 40 -15
      Lee Nailon cha 28 49 -21
      George Lynch cha 8 33 -25
      Fred Hoiberg chi 45 32 13
      Brad Miller chi 29 19 10
      Ron Artest chi 14 13 1
      Norm Richardson chi 3 3 0
      Jamal Crawford chi 8 13 -5
      Greg Anthony chi 13 23 -10
      Travis Best chi 9 19 -10
      Eddy Curry chi 30 40 -10
      Jalen Rose chi 9 19 -10
      Eddie Robinson chi 9 20 -11
      A.J. Guyton chi 15 28 -13
      Trenton Hassell chi 31 45 -14
      Tyson Chandler chi 27 42 -15
      Kevin Ollie chi 18 34 -16
      Dalibor Bagaric chi 11 36 -25
      Marcus Fizer chi 23 51 -28
      Ron Mercer chi 6 34 -28
      Charles Oakley chi 13 44 -31
      Wesley Person cle 92 60 32
      Andre Miller cle 46 33 13
      Brian Skinner cle 37 24 13
      Jumaine Jones cle 39 40 -1
      Jeff Trepagnier cle 3 8 -5
      Desagana Diop cle 3 13 -10
      Zydrunas Ilgauskas cle 25 36 -11
      Lamond Murray cle 29 40 -11
      Michael Doleac cle 14 26 -12
      Tyrone Hill cle 5 19 -14
      Trajan Langdon cle 13 28 -15
      Bimbo Coles cle 15 31 -16
      Bryant Stith cle 16 32 -16
      Ricky Davis cle 31 49 -18
      Chris Mihm cle 22 50 -28
      Dirk Nowitzki dal 56 18 38
      Adrian Griffin dal 38 18 20
      Greg Buckner dal 28 13 15
      Steve Nash dal 47 33 14
      Michael Finley dal 38 29 9
      Eduardo Najera dal 32 25 7
      Shawn Bradley dal 27 22 5
      Nick Van Exel dal 14 11 3
      Evan Eschmeyer dal 14 13 1
      Raef Lafrentz dal 13 12 1
      Charlie Bell dal 0 0 0
      Johnny Newman dal 18 19 -1
      Zhizhi Wang dal 26 27 -1
      Tariq Abdul-Wahad dal 1 3 -2
      Avery Johnson dal 6 8 -2
      Danny Manning dal 18 21 -3
      Darrick Martin dal 0 3 -3
      Donnell Harvey dal 6 10 -4
      Juwan Howard dal 22 31 -9
      Tim Hardaway dal 19 35 -16
      Raef Lafrentz den 30 21 9
      Zendon Hamilton den 25 24 1
      Shawnelle Scott den 11 10 1
      Antonio McDyess den 5 5 0
      Donnell Harvey den 13 14 -1
      Avery Johnson den 25 26 -1
      Chris Anderson den 9 11 -2
      Tim Hardaway den 5 9 -4
      Juwan Howard den 12 16 -4
      Isaiah Rider den 3 7 -4
      Carlos Arroyo den 6 11 -5
      Ryan Bowen den 34 39 -5
      Tariq Abdul-Wahad den 6 14 -8
      Nick Van Exel den 18 27 -9
      Mengke Bateer den 5 19 -14
      Kenny Satterfield den 10 24 -14
      Scott Williams den 10 31 -21
      Calbert Cheaney den 21 44 -23
      Voshon Lenard den 24 47 -23
      James Posey den 22 49 -27
      George McCloud den 20 48 -28
      Ben Wallace det 58 20 38
      Jon Barry det 54 26 28
      Corliss Williamson det 43 33 10
      Mikki Moore det 17 11 6
      Zeljko Rebraca det 37 35 2
      Brian Cardinal det 3 3 0
      Dana Barros det 13 14 -1
      Ratko Varda det 0 1 -1
      Chucky Atkins det 37 40 -3
      cliff robinson det 37 41 -4
      Rodney White det 5 10 -5
      Damon Jones det 28 36 -8
      Victor Alexander det 0 12 -12
      Michael Curry det 34 46 -12
      Jerry Stackhouse det 29 45 -16
      Bob Sura gsw 40 38 2
      Danny Fortson gsw 37 38 -1
      Marc Jackson gsw 8 9 -1
      Dean Garrett gsw 0 4 -4
      Cedric Henderson gsw 2 8 -6
      Mookie Blaylock gsw 14 21 -7
      Chris Mills gsw 29 36 -7
      Antawn Jamison gsw 35 45 -10
      Dean Oliver gsw 4 14 -10
      Troy Murphy gsw 34 46 -12
      Larry Hughes gsw 29 43 -14
      Gilbert Arenas gsw 15 30 -15
      Adonal Foyle gsw 29 48 -19
      Jason Richardson gsw 27 51 -24
      Erick Dampier gsw 22 49 -27
      Kelvin Cato hou 50 22 28
      Walt Williams hou 23 25 -2
      Kevin Willis hou 25 27 -2
      Jason Collier hou 9 13 -4
      Steve Francis hou 26 31 -5
      Glen Rice hou 7 13 -6
      Oscar Torres hou 27 34 -7
      Kenny Thomas hou 31 39 -8
      Eddie Griffin hou 31 40 -9
      Tierre Brown hou 11 21 -10
      Dan Langhi hou 9 20 -11
      Moochie Norris hou 33 47 -14
      Cuttino Mobley hou 27 47 -20
      Terence Morris hou 15 46 -31
      Reggie Miller ind 54 23 31
      Brad Miller ind 20 6 14
      Jermaine O'Neal ind 38 32 6
      Kevin Ollie ind 16 11 5
      Travis Best ind 24 20 4
      Primoz Brezec ind 9 7 2
      Al Harrington ind 23 21 2
      Carlos Rogers ind 10 8 2
      Jamison Brewer ind 3 3 0
      Norm Richardson ind 0 2 -2
      Ron Artest ind 11 15 -4
      Ron Mercer ind 2 7 -5
      Bruno Sundov ind 6 11 -5
      Jeff Foster ind 37 43 -6
      Austin Croshere ind 31 43 -12
      Jalen Rose ind 20 33 -13
      Jonathan Bender ind 28 48 -20
      Jamaal Tinsley ind 25 53 -28
      Elton Brand lac 62 16 46
      Eric Piatkowski lac 44 25 19
      Quentin Richardson lac 43 36 7
      Eldridge Recasner lac 2 2 0
      Harold Jamison lac 10 11 -1
      Keyon Dooling lac 6 8 -2
      Earl Boykins lac 30 34 -4
      Obinna Ekezie lac 8 12 -4
      Corey Maggette lac 27 34 -7
      Lamar Odom lac 11 18 -7
      Doug Overton lac 4 11 -7
      Tremaine Fowlkes lac 6 14 -8
      Jeff McInnis lac 36 44 -8
      Darius Miles lac 36 44 -8
      Sean Rooks lac 21 38 -17
      Michael Olowokandi lac 23 55 -32
      Shaquille O'Neal lal 51 14 37
      Kobe Bryant lal 55 23 32
      Robert Horry lal 52 27 25
      Samaki Walker lal 43 24 19
      Derek Fisher lal 41 27 14
      Mark Madsen lal 30 20 10
      Devean George lal 43 36 7
      Mike Penberthy lal 3 0 3
      Jelani McCoy lal 8 6 2
      Joseph Crispin lal 3 3 0
      Stanislav Medvedenko lal 31 31 0
      Rick Fox lal 37 43 -6
      Brian Shaw lal 23 30 -7
      Lindsey Hunter lal 36 44 -8
      Mitch Richmond lal 26 34 -8
      Shane Battier mem 40 36 4
      Pau Gasol mem 42 38 4
      Michael Dickerson mem 1 3 -2
      Elliot Perry mem 0 2 -2
      Stromile Swift mem 32 34 -2
      Isaac Fontaine mem 1 4 -3
      Antonis Fotsis mem 8 14 -6
      Eddie Gill mem 6 15 -9
      Brevin Knight mem 21 32 -11
      Lorenzen Wright mem 15 26 -11
      Tony Massenburg mem 30 42 -12
      Isaac Austin mem 3 16 -13
      Nick Anderson mem 0 15 -15
      Grant Long mem 22 43 -21
      Rodney Buford mem 19 42 -23
      Jason Williams mem 20 43 -23
      Wille Solomon mem 15 41 -26
      Eddie Jones mia 52 27 25
      Alonzo Mourning mia 43 30 13
      Malik Allen mia 3 4 -1
      Tang Hamilton mia 3 4 -1
      Ernest Brown mia 0 2 -2
      Brian Grant mia 35 37 -2
      Rod Strickland mia 36 38 -2
      Mike James mia 5 8 -3
      Vladimir Stepania mia 30 33 -3
      Sean Marks mia 7 12 -5
      Sam Mack mia 3 9 -6
      LaPhonso Ellis mia 29 37 -8
      Kendall Gill mia 27 36 -9
      Chris Gatling mia 20 34 -14
      Jimmy Jackson mia 44 66 -22
      Eddie House mia 15 44 -29
      Anthony Carter mia 7 37 -30
      Ray Allen mil 40 27 13
      Sam Cassell mil 39 33 6
      Anthony Mason mil 43 37 6
      Michael Redd mil 34 32 2
      Glenn Robinson mil 33 31 2
      Greg Foster mil 2 3 -1
      Joel Przybilla mil 32 33 -1
      Darvin Ham mil 31 36 -5
      Greg Anthony mil 8 14 -6
      Mark Pope mil 12 18 -6
      Rafer Alston mil 17 26 -9
      Jason Caffey mil 7 16 -9
      Ervin Johnson mil 32 44 -12
      Tim Thomas mil 28 44 -16
      Kevin Garnett min 53 26 27
      Wally Szczerbiak min 50 30 20
      Joe Smith min 42 28 14
      Chauncey Billups min 45 35 10
      Terrell Brandon min 20 12 8
      Maurice Evans min 3 4 -1
      Anthony Peeler min 39 41 -2
      Marc Jackson min 7 13 -6
      Gary Trent min 28 34 -6
      Radoslav Nesterovic min 36 44 -8
      Robert Pack min 2 12 -10
      Dean Garrett min 5 16 -11
      William Avery min 7 19 -12
      Loren Woods min 17 31 -14
      Sam Mitchell min 24 39 -15
      Felipe Lopez min 19 36 -17
      Todd MacCulloch njn 42 20 22
      Lucious Harris njn 46 27 19
      Jason Kidd njn 47 33 14
      Kerry Kittles njn 47 33 14
      Aaron Williams njn 45 35 10
      Kenyon Martin njn 38 34 4
      Donny Marshall njn 9 8 1
      Keith Van Horn njn 40 39 1
      Anthony Johnson njn 14 14 0
      Reggie Slater njn 1 1 0
      Steve Goodrich njn 2 5 -3
      Jason Collins njn 35 40 -5
      Richard Jefferson njn 36 41 -5
      Derrick Dial njn 9 15 -6
      Brian Scalabrine njn 5 15 -10
      Brandon Armstrong njn 8 21 -13
      Mark Jackson nyk 46 34 12
      Kurt Thomas nyk 42 38 4
      Clarence Weatherspoon nyk 28 26 2
      Marcus Camby nyk 15 14 1
      Charlie Ward nyk 31 30 1
      Larry Robinson nyk 0 1 -1
      Othella Harrington nyk 36 39 -3
      Felton Spencer nyk 8 11 -3
      Lavor Postell nyk 7 14 -7
      Allan Houston nyk 33 42 -9
      Travis Knight nyk 12 28 -16
      Shandon Anderson nyk 30 49 -19
      Howard Eisley nyk 7 30 -23
      Latrell Sprewell nyk 25 54 -29
      Tracy McGrady orl 47 28 19
      Darrell Armstrong orl 49 31 18
      Horace Grant orl 41 33 8
      Pat Garrity orl 41 37 4
      Grant Hill orl 8 6 2
      Mike Miller orl 31 32 -1
      Jeryl Sasser orl 2 3 -1
      Steven Hunter orl 20 22 -2
      Jaren Jackson orl 2 4 -2
      Charles Outlaw orl 3 7 -4
      Dee Brown orl 0 5 -5
      Andrew DeClercq orl 24 29 -5
      Jud Buechler orl 18 25 -7
      Patrick Ewing orl 28 35 -7
      Don Reid orl 26 37 -11
      Monty Williams orl 27 38 -11
      Troy Hudson orl 28 50 -22
      Dikembe Mutombo phi 53 27 26
      Matt Harpring phi 49 30 19
      Aaron McKie phi 29 18 11
      Allen Iverson phi 34 26 8
      Derrick Coleman phi 31 27 4
      Ira Bownam phi 3 0 3
      Jabari Smith phi 4 3 1
      Eric Snow phi 30 29 1
      Samuel Dalembert phi 10 10 0
      Damone Brown phi 5 6 -1
      Tim James phi 2 5 -3
      Alvin Jones phi 4 7 -3
      Matt Geiger phi 0 4 -4
      Derrick McKey phi 17 22 -5
      Michael Ruffin phi 2 9 -7
      Raja Bell phi 28 37 -9
      Corie Blount phi 30 39 -9
      Speedy Claxton phi 28 37 -9
      Vonteego Cummings phi 19 28 -9
      Shawn Marion pho 49 30 19
      Jake Voskuhl pho 33 21 12
      Rodney Rogers pho 29 21 8
      Bo Outlaw pho 4 0 4
      Alton Ford pho 23 21 2
      Iako Tsakalidis pho 33 31 2
      Joseph Crispin pho 7 6 1
      Jud Buechler pho 3 3 0
      Vinny Del Negro pho 0 1 -1
      Dan Majerle pho 29 30 -1
      Charlie Bell pho 1 3 -2
      Daniel Santiago pho 0 2 -2
      Joe Johnson pho 11 16 -5
      Charles Outlaw pho 30 36 -6
      Milt Palacio pho 9 17 -8
      John Wallace pho 17 26 -9
      Anfernee Hardaway pho 34 44 -10
      Tom Gugliotta pho 16 28 -12
      Tony Delk pho 14 27 -13
      Stephon Marbury pho 31 49 -18
      Dale Davis por 52 25 27
      Derek Anderson por 43 26 17
      Rasheed Wallace por 46 32 14
      Ruben Patterson por 41 34 7
      Scottie Pippen por 32 29 3
      Bonzi Wells por 37 36 1
      Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje por 10 11 -1
      Rick Brunson por 25 26 -1
      Damon Stoudamire por 36 38 -2
      Mitchell Butler por 3 6 -3
      Steve Kerr por 26 29 -3
      Erick Barkley por 6 10 -4
      Chris Dudley por 14 19 -5
      Zach Randolph por 14 21 -7
      Shawn Kemp por 27 47 -20
      Predrag Stojakovic sac 51 18 33
      Scot Pollard sac 54 24 30
      Doug Christie sac 53 26 27
      Mike Bibby sac 48 30 18
      Vlade Divac sac 47 31 16
      Chris Webber sac 35 19 16
      Bobby Jackson sac 47 33 14
      Hidaye Turkoglu sac 44 35 9
      Gerald Wallace sac 24 22 2
      Chucky Brown sac 7 6 1
      Brent Price sac 9 8 1
      Jabari Smith sac 5 6 -1
      Lawrence Funderburke sac 23 29 -6
      Mateen Cleaves sac 11 18 -7
      Tim Duncan san 65 15 50
      David Robinson san 60 18 42
      Danny Ferry san 31 16 15
      Steve Smith san 45 30 15
      Antonio Daniels san 45 35 10
      Mark Bryant san 13 8 5
      Terry Porter san 37 32 5
      Jason Hart san 6 2 4
      Charles C. Smith san 15 14 1
      Amal McCaskill san 9 9 0
      Tony Parker san 37 38 -1
      Malik Rose san 39 41 -2
      Cherokee Parks san 14 18 -4
      Bruce Bowen san 24 33 -9
      Stephen Jackson san 4 16 -12
      Charles Daniel Smith san 8 20 -12
      Rashard Lewis sea 53 18 35
      Brent Barry sea 55 24 31
      Gary Payton sea 49 31 18
      Randy Livingston sea 7 6 1
      Ansu Sesay sea 4 3 1
      Jamal Kendrick sea 1 1 0
      Olumide Oyedeji sea 14 14 0
      Calvin Booth sea 7 8 -1
      Antonio Harvey sea 2 3 -1
      Shammond Williams sea 23 24 -1
      Desmond Mason sea 35 38 -3
      Vladimir Radmanovic sea 25 30 -5
      Earl Watson sea 27 33 -6
      Art Long sea 26 35 -9
      Jerome James sea 21 32 -11
      Predrag Drobnjak sea 21 39 -18
      Vin Baker sea 17 36 -19
      Jerome Williams tor 36 29 7
      Jermaine Jackson tor 11 7 4
      Michael Bradley tor 9 6 3
      Antonio Davis tor 39 36 3
      Mamadou Ndiaye tor 4 1 3
      Morris Peterson tor 32 29 3
      Vince Carter tor 31 29 2
      Derrick Dial tor 2 3 -1
      Carlos Arroyo tor 6 8 -2
      Michael Stewart tor 2 7 -5
      Alvin Williams tor 37 43 -6
      Keon Clark tor 36 43 -7
      Hakeem Olajuwon tor 25 34 -9
      Tracy Murray tor 13 25 -12
      Dell Curry tor 20 33 -13
      Eric Montross tor 13 29 -16
      Chris Childs tor 23 44 -21
      Andrei Kirilenko uta 55 25 30
      John Stockton uta 54 26 28
      Jarron Collins uta 39 27 12
      Karl Malone uta 45 33 12
      John Crotty uta 26 15 11
      Donyell Marshall uta 30 26 4
      Scott Padgett uta 35 36 -1
      Greg Ostertag uta 31 36 -5
      Bryon Russell uta 29 35 -6
      Quincy Lewis uta 10 22 -12
      Rusty Larue uta 9 24 -15
      John Starks uta 20 42 -22
      Deshawn Stevenson uta 19 45 -26
      John Amaechi uta 13 40 -27
      Chris Whitney was 51 30 21
      Brendan Haywood was 32 23 9
      Jahidi White was 40 31 9
      Popeye Jones was 42 36 6
      Bobby Simmons was 10 11 -1
      Etan Thomas was 21 22 -1
      Tyrone Nesby was 32 35 -3
      Christian Laettner was 26 30 -4
      Hubert Davis was 21 28 -7
      Courtney Alexander was 22 31 -9
      Kwame Brown was 21 31 -10
      Richard Hamilton was 26 37 -11
      Michael Jordan was 23 37 -14
      Tyronn Lue was 24 46 -22

    • McKibbin, Stuart
      Was it a surprise to you that David Robinson had more wins than Ben Wallace?
      Message 2 of 10 , Apr 15, 2002
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        Was it a surprise to you that David Robinson had more wins than Ben Wallace?
      • Michael K. Tamada
        ... [...] ... I d like to see some weighting or measure of leverage ... Madsen s 30-20 W-L record is plausible enough, but his minutes are small and so is his
        Message 3 of 10 , Apr 15, 2002
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          On Mon, 15 Apr 2002, Dean Oliver wrote:

          > I calculate a type of individual offensive-win loss record that just looks
          > at the number of games players have better offensive ratings than defensive
          > ratings (that's a win). It's not an overall evaluation of a player's
          > ability, but it pretty much has to be good for a player to be considered
          > great, I think. It basically shows that a player can be consistently

          [...]

          > FullName tm W L Net

          > Mark Madsen lal 30 20 10
          > Stanislav Medvedenko lal 31 31 0
          > Rick Fox lal 37 43 -6

          I'd like to see some weighting or measure of leverage ... Madsen's 30-20
          W-L record is plausible enough, but his minutes are small and so is his
          importance to the Lakers. Medvedenko sees more minutes, and more
          important minutes, but neither his net nor gross number of wins show him
          contributing more than Madsen. So if Madsen gets a win while playing his
          5 minutes of garbage time, it doesn't seem that should carry the same
          weight as Medvedenko playing 12 minutes of important backup big man.


          --MKT
        • mikel_ind
          ... just looks ... defensive ... I still don t know what is meant by an individual defensive rating. Is a loss when one s offensive efficiency is less than
          Message 4 of 10 , Apr 16, 2002
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            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., Dean Oliver <deano@r...> wrote:
            >
            > I calculate a type of individual offensive-win loss record that
            just looks
            > at the number of games players have better offensive ratings than
            defensive
            > ratings (that's a win).

            I still don't know what is meant by an individual defensive rating.
            Is a 'loss' when one's offensive efficiency is less than the opposing
            team's overall offensive efficiency?

            >
            > FullName tm W L Net
            > Jason Terry atl 46 31 15
            > Alan Henderson atl 15 11 4
            > Ira Newble atl 21 19 2
            ...
            > Shareef Abdur-Rahim atl 36 39 -3

            So Ira Newble is more consistently good than the allstar Abdur-Rahim?

            The only way I can wade thru this is to ignore the 'losses' ascribed
            to individuals. Not only do I recoil at the idea of
            players 'creating losses', the list makes no sense at all when adding
            them in.

            > Fred Hoiberg chi 45 32 13
            ...

            yeah, right


            > Wesley Person cle 92 60 32
            > Andre Miller cle 46 33 13

            typo ?

            > Dirk Nowitzki dal 56 18 38
            > Adrian Griffin dal 38 18 20
            > Greg Buckner dal 28 13 15
            > Steve Nash dal 47 33 14
            > Michael Finley dal 38 29 9

            The Big 3 in Dallas are Dirk, Griffin, and Buckner!

            > Antawn Jamison gsw 35 45 -10
            > Dean Oliver gsw 4 14 -10

            Dean's right up there with Antawn !

            > Kelvin Cato hou 50 22 28
            > Walt Williams hou 23 25 -2

            OK, Cato had a bad year; how did he do this much good in so little
            time? (I'm guessing high % and low TO is it)

            > Elton Brand lac 62 16 46

            Was Brand just a different player this year? I had him about the
            same as last 2 years.

            > Kobe Bryant lal 55 23 32
            > Robert Horry lal 52 27 25

            Horry had a nice year, but right up there with Kobe ?

            > Chris Whitney was 51 30 21
            ...
            > Richard Hamilton was 26 37 -11
            > Michael Jordan was 23 37 -14

            This is indeed 'interesting'. Even ignoring the losses, the
            implication is that Whitney was more instrumental in Wizards' wins
            than the other 2 combined.

            I had thought that multiplying these columns by minutes per game (or
            by MPG/240), one might reach some clarity; but Whitney plays pretty
            good minutes, so he'd still come out looking like the team MVP.

            I dunno, Dean.
          • HoopStudies
            ... Wallace? Robinson s numbers surprised me in general. I had heard repeatedly how he had fallen off this year so much. I thought that meant that he had
            Message 5 of 10 , Apr 16, 2002
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              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:
              > Was it a surprise to you that David Robinson had more wins than Ben
              Wallace?

              Robinson's numbers surprised me in general. I had heard repeatedly
              how he had fallen off this year so much. I thought that meant that
              he had fallen off in all ways. He has fallen off in his production.
              He is still efficient with the ball, especially in this era of weak
              centers, and clogs the middle very well.

              I haven't done all the calcs yet, but I believe Wallace will end up
              as my top rated defensive player of the year in terms of points
              allowed per 100 possessions. Robinson, Mutombo, Duncan have usually
              been up there. Wallace was very good last year, but this year's
              numbers are even better. Obviously, Wallace doesn't do much on the
              offensive end but get the ball near the basket and stick it in. He
              isn't going to draw double-teams.

              DeanO
            • HoopStudies
              ... 30-20 ... his ... show him ... playing his ... same ... As I say, this number more reflects how well the guys carry out their roles, not the difficulty of
              Message 6 of 10 , Apr 16, 2002
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                --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
                >
                > > FullName tm W L Net
                >
                > > Mark Madsen lal 30 20 10
                > > Stanislav Medvedenko lal 31 31 0
                > > Rick Fox lal 37 43 -6
                >
                > I'd like to see some weighting or measure of leverage ... Madsen's
                30-20
                > W-L record is plausible enough, but his minutes are small and so is
                his
                > importance to the Lakers. Medvedenko sees more minutes, and more
                > important minutes, but neither his net nor gross number of wins
                show him
                > contributing more than Madsen. So if Madsen gets a win while
                playing his
                > 5 minutes of garbage time, it doesn't seem that should carry the
                same
                > weight as Medvedenko playing 12 minutes of important backup big man.

                As I say, this number more reflects how well the guys carry out their
                roles, not the difficulty of their roles. I do have another way of
                accounting for what you're talking about -- to some degree.

                One thing that makes numbers meaningless for Madsen and other guys
                who get a lot of garbage time is that they aren't really competing.
                They are playing against scrubs themselves a lot. They get dunks
                because the other team is playing desperate or not playing at all.
                That is something I can't account for without situational stats.
                Given that we know Madsen isn't getting many minutes and no one is
                going to trust numbers blindly that say he's ok, I don't worry about
                this too much.

                Actually, one of the weird things I found is not Madsen, but
                Medvedenko, is showing some prominently good numbers with a fairly
                small statistical history to base it on. I really don't trust it.
                Remember those curves of possession rates vs offensive rating?
                Medvedenko's is too good to be believed. Some fluke in the stats, I
                think. (I've actually started integrating under the curves to get
                some sense of the combination of efficiency and productivity and, so
                far, by that measure, Shaq and Kobe are the 2 best offensive players
                in the league. Surprise? Not at all. I love the Lakers from my
                childhood, but I hate an unfair fight and the Lakers have an unfair
                advantage.)

                DeanO
              • HoopStudies
                ... (or ... pretty ... As I say, these are not a measure of overall contribution. I do think that a player MUST have a good value here to be considered a
                Message 7 of 10 , Apr 17, 2002
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                  --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
                  > I had thought that multiplying these columns by minutes per game
                  (or
                  > by MPG/240), one might reach some clarity; but Whitney plays
                  pretty
                  > good minutes, so he'd still come out looking like the team MVP.
                  >
                  > I dunno, Dean.

                  As I say, these are not a measure of overall contribution. I do
                  think that a player MUST have a good value here to be considered a
                  great player. But a good value here doesn't mean that they are a
                  great player. It's a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one.

                  That means that Finley and Jordan weren't great this year. It
                  doesn't mean that Hoiberg is great. It means that his offensive
                  rating was higher than his defensive rating in more games than not.
                  That's the definition of the record. It says nothing about whether a
                  game rating of 140 on the offensive end created 2 points or 30
                  points. It says nothing about whether the defensive rating of 87
                  came in the last 2 minutes of a game already decided or by grabbing
                  30 rebounds in a crucial game.

                  I know a lot of people are looking for the Holy Grail of basketball
                  statistics. I ain't. This measure doesn't mean MVP. It's a summary
                  of how consistently a player met one goal of many he may have over
                  the season. I find it very interesting because no other Holy Grail
                  statistics even attempt to look at consistency. I find this number
                  interesting because it does often indicate how good a good player's
                  team can be. Jordan's best record was about 72-10, so was the
                  Bulls. Kinda neat. The Wizards' record better reflects Hamilton's
                  and Jordan's individual records than Whitney's. Kinda interesting.
                  Says to me that Whitney isn't the driving force in that team winning,
                  though he's been an effective role player. Maybe he should take on a
                  bigger role? Over the course of a long career, I'd expect these
                  numbers to reflect individual value a bit more -- team record in the
                  games an individual plays is kind of like that, something like a
                  pitcher's win-loss record in baseball. But mostly, these records are
                  just another indicator in a long line of indicators of quality.

                  (Yes, the Wes Person record was in error. 46-30 is what it should
                  have said.)
                • Dean Oliver
                  (I lost my original comment in the ether, it looks like. Trying to reconstruct.) ... An individual defensive rating is an estimate of points allowed per 100
                  Message 8 of 10 , Apr 17, 2002
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                    (I lost my original comment in the ether, it looks like. Trying to
                    reconstruct.)

                    --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "mikel_ind" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
                    > I still don't know what is meant by an individual defensive rating.
                    > Is a 'loss' when one's offensive efficiency is less than the opposing
                    > team's overall offensive efficiency?
                    >

                    An individual defensive rating is an estimate of points allowed per 100
                    possessions. I can estimate how often a player stops teams from
                    scoring. I then combine that with estimates of how often teams score
                    against the defense to get an individual defensive rating. A loss in this
                    case is just when a player's offensive rating is lower than his individual
                    defensive rating. He is not "creating" a loss. A "loss" in this case is
                    defined this way.

                    > >
                    > > FullName tm W L Net
                    > > Jason Terry atl 46 31 15
                    > > Alan Henderson atl 15 11 4
                    > > Ira Newble atl 21 19 2
                    > ...
                    > > Shareef Abdur-Rahim atl 36 39 -3
                    >
                    > So Ira Newble is more consistently good than the allstar Abdur-Rahim?
                    >
                    > The only way I can wade thru this is to ignore the 'losses' ascribed
                    > to individuals. Not only do I recoil at the idea of

                    You CANNOT ignore the losses. The wins and losses will sum to the games
                    played by an individual (in almost all cases). So the win value on its own
                    means little. It is the net difference that means something. In the case
                    of Newble vs. Abdur-Rahim, I'd first say that the difference between their
                    records is not statistically significant. So I'd say that they both
                    generally do their jobs at their positions.


                    > > Wesley Person cle 92 60 32
                    > > Andre Miller cle 46 33 13
                    >
                    > typo ?
                    >

                    Database calc error. Person should have been 46-30.


                    > > Chris Whitney was 51 30 21
                    > ...
                    > > Richard Hamilton was 26 37 -11
                    > > Michael Jordan was 23 37 -14
                    >
                    > This is indeed 'interesting'. Even ignoring the losses, the
                    > implication is that Whitney was more instrumental in Wizards' wins
                    > than the other 2 combined.

                    This is a completely wrong interpretation of what the numbers mean. As I
                    say, these are not indicative of total value. I would say, however, that a
                    player MUST be good in this statistic to be a great player. It is
                    necessary but not sufficient to be good at this.

                    The definition of this statistic is how often a player's offensive rating
                    is better than his defensive rating. Basically, if you look at a player as
                    a little team, just being responsible for scoring on his possessions and
                    stopping guys when they try to score against him, this looks at how
                    consistent a player is as a microteam. Consistency is something that none
                    of the Holy Grail statistics that even attempt to evaluate. This gets at
                    it in one way (of many). As I say, it suggests whether a player is doing
                    his role optimally. Horace Grant usually has been good at this thing. It
                    identifies useful role players. It identifies when top scorers on a team
                    should perhaps not be trying to score as much as they are. In general, I
                    think the measure suggests something interesting, not the hypothetical
                    overall value that every linear weights stat goes for. It is interesting
                    that the great Bulls teams often had the same record as Michael Jordan had
                    with this method. Kinda neat. It is interesting that these Wizards had a
                    win-loss record (37-45) closer to Hamilton's or Jordan's than to
                    Whitney's. Suggests that Whitney is a good role player and doesn't carry
                    the team. Suggests that neither Hamilton nor Jordan completely carried the
                    team either.

                    This measure is simple and provides an interesting number that I use when
                    evaluating players. Is it the Holy Grail? No, nothing is. It's just one
                    of many different indicators of player value. And don't evaluate it
                    against your own subjective valuations of players.


                    Dean Oliver
                    Journal of Basketball Studies
                    http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/index.html
                    deano@...
                  • thedawgsareout
                    ... Dean, I think it might be really helpful if you attached one of the game scoresheets that you sent me in your last e-mail. That really cleared things up
                    Message 9 of 10 , Apr 17, 2002
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                      > An individual defensive rating is an estimate of points allowed per
                      > 100 possessions. I can estimate how often a player stops teams
                      > from scoring. I then combine that with estimates of how often
                      > teams score against the defense to get an individual defensive
                      > rating. A loss in this case is just when a player's offensive
                      > rating is lower than his individual defensive rating. He is
                      > not "creating" a loss. A "loss" in this case is defined this way.

                      Dean, I think it might be really helpful if you attached one of the
                      game scoresheets that you sent me in your last e-mail. That really
                      cleared things up for me, and I bet it would have the same effect for
                      others (though I confess I'm not quite sure where you made the assist
                      changes that were its intended purpose!)

                      To throw some fire onto the Brand discussion, let me briefly mention
                      this. The modified linear-weights system I use recreationally had
                      Brand as the second-best player in the NBA through last week. Take
                      that for what you will, which shouldn't be much. . . .
                    • Michael K. Tamada
                      ... DeanO s post was initially confusing to me too, although I eventually figured it out. The description of what a defensive rating is, was the key point, to
                      Message 10 of 10 , Apr 18, 2002
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                        On Thu, 18 Apr 2002, thedawgsareout wrote:

                        > > An individual defensive rating is an estimate of points allowed per
                        > > 100 possessions. I can estimate how often a player stops teams

                        > Dean, I think it might be really helpful if you attached one of the
                        > game scoresheets that you sent me in your last e-mail. That really
                        > cleared things up for me, and I bet it would have the same effect for
                        > others (though I confess I'm not quite sure where you made the assist

                        DeanO's post was initially confusing to me too, although I eventually
                        figured it out. The description of what a defensive rating is, was the
                        key point, to make it clear why off>def constitutes a "win".

                        But I'm not sure how much these contribute to helping us connect
                        individual performance to team performance. Dean doesn't claim that these
                        win-loss stats add up to a team's wins and losses (I wonder if a weighted
                        sum would), instead he looks for main players on a team (Shaq, Jordan) and
                        finds that their win-loss record tends to be similar to their teams (but
                        do the individual wins for these players coincide with their team's
                        wins?). Nice, but not compelling, especially when we already know that
                        their teams' success is heavily dependent on players such as these.

                        The binary nature of a win or loss would seem to throw away information:
                        was it a big win or a narrow one? If two players have 50-32 individual
                        win loss records, but if one of them had big "margins of victory" and
                        narrow "margins of loss", that player is presumably contributing much more
                        to his team than the other one.

                        Yeah, the 32 losses are still losses, and we should ding the player for
                        that lack of consistency, but his likely contributions to victory are
                        still going to be bigger than those of the other 50-32 player.

                        If indeed it is consistency we're trying to measure, why not look at the
                        standard deviation of players' off-def or off/def ratings?

                        I can believe that a good won-loss record is a necessary condition for a
                        player to be a true superstar...is it also a necessary condition for a
                        player to a good role player (one of the potential major uses of this
                        measure, to find non-major players who nonetheless are good players).
                        Can we therefore use won-loss record to unmask "false superstars", players
                        who may seem to be all-starts but whose mediocre won-loss records tell us
                        they're not as good as we think?

                        If useful applications such as those can be demonstrated, then won-loss
                        could have a useful role to play.



                        --MKT
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