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Re: Jordan

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  • HoopStudies
    I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his season is done. A few things to comment on. 1. We seemed to think that the zone would help
    Message 1 of 11 , Apr 3, 2002
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      I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his
      season is done. A few things to comment on.

      1. We seemed to think that the zone would help Jordan's longevity.
      He didn't quite make it through the season, but I don't think the Wiz
      played much zone.

      2. Below are the stats I projected using similarity scores:

      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
      > > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
      > > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
      > >
      > > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
      > > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
      > >
      > > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
      > > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
      > >
      > > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
      > > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
      > >
      >

      I feel pretty good about the games played being well less than 82.
      The method forecasted injury. I don't feel very good about the FG%,
      since MJ shot only 42%. Nor did he get to the line as much as this
      said. Both of these are due to his jump shooting nature. The PPG of
      22 is dead on. MikeG forecasted the same. Jordan's assists were
      higher than forecasted here. MikeG forecasted that.

      GP GS MIN PTS OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO A/TO PF TECH
      60 53 34.9 22.9 0.8 4.8 5.7 5.2 1.42 0.43 2.7 1.91 2.0 0.0

      FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS ADJ.
      9.2 22.1 .416 0.2 0.9 .189 4.4 5.6 .790 541 1271 .426 1.04 .420


      3. I did a second analysis before, looking for the most similar
      current player to the above forecasts. It gave Cuttino Mobley.

      > only player from last year who ranks as similar. His #'s
      >
      > Plyr G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
      > mobley,cuttino 79 38.0 6.7 15.4 1.1 3.2
      >
      > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
      > mobley,cuttino 5.0 6.0 1.1 5.0 2.5
      >
      > Plyr Name stl tov blk pf pts
      > mobley,cuttino 1.06 2.1 0.33 2.1 19.5
      >
      > Plyr Name fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
      > mobley,cuttino 0.434 0.357 0.831 1.18 0.39
      >
      > That's a good match on a lot of things, but Mobley is not quite as
      > efficient as the hypothetical Jordan, due to shooting
      percentage...
      > And it's just hard thinking that Jordan is gonna be like Mobley.

      It turned out that Mobley's numbers here are pretty similar to
      Jordan's, except for the games played (and a few more 3's). So Mike
      was a bit like Mobley.

      If Mike comes back, I'm not sure if he would get better or worse. I
      guess I'm thinking that he won't come back.

      DeanO
    • dlirag
      I can t recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions regarding the Wizards win-loss record this season. Were there any?
      Message 2 of 11 , Apr 6, 2002
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        I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
        regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?
      • HoopStudies
        ... Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the most similar players to Jordan: (One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the
        Message 3 of 11 , Apr 7, 2002
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
          > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
          > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?

          Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
          most similar players to Jordan:

          "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
          years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"

          I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
          around 35 wins.

          DeanO
        • alleyoop2
          Right on. I had them going 32-50. http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm ... any?
          Message 4 of 11 , Apr 10, 2002
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            Right on. I had them going 32-50.

            http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm

            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
            > > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
            > > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there
            any?
            >
            > Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
            > most similar players to Jordan:
            >
            > "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
            > years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"
            >
            > I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
            > around 35 wins.
            >
            > DeanO
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