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RE: [APBR_analysis] Assigning Credit to Players

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  • McKibbin, Stuart
    I m not looking for formal studies, but rather gut feel from people on these, maybe with some explanation for the answers, maybe without. 1. The point guard
    Message 1 of 10 , Mar 14, 2002
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      I'm not looking for formal studies, but rather gut feel from people
      on these, maybe with some explanation for the answers, maybe
      without.

      1. The point guard passes through the defense to a big man
      underneath the basket for a dunk. What percentage of the credit for
      the TEAM score should go to the passer vs. the scorer? Obviously,
      one player gets an assist and one gets the field goal, but,
      subjectively, should they split credit 50-50?

      If the pass is truly through the defense, that is, if the point guard had to see the opening and thread the ball at high velocity past defenders to the big man, (who then has to be able to handle the pass and not drop it) who dunks the ball without the defense being able to react then I'd give ALL of the credit to the PG. The PG made the play.

      2. A point guard passes to an unguarded mediocre shooter at the
      perimeter who makes a jump shot. How should credit be split here?

      NO credit should ever be given for making a basic pass. However, if the point guard penetrates and draws Mr. Mediocre's defender to him, and subsequently passes the ball to Mr. Mediocre who hits his wide open shot then PG should get ALL of the credit. Again, the PG made the play.


      9. A guard misses a jump shot, which is rebounded and stuck back in
      by a teammate. How much credit goes to the two players?

      I agree with others---what the hell did the guard do to earn credit? It sounds like his offensive rebounding teammate just bailed him out.

      10. A guard misses a jump shot, which is rebounded by a teammate.
      He passes back to the guard to restart the offense, which, after
      several passes, scores. How much credit should go to the offensive
      rebounder?

      No more than should be given a guy for grabbing a defensive rebound, or stealing the ball, or taking the ball out of the net. Or for that matter, to the opponent for kicking the ball out of bounds. In other words if the offensive rebound doesn't lead DIRECTLY to the basket, who cares how you got the ball?
    • dlirag
      ... back ... have ... A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45% chance),
      Message 2 of 10 , Mar 29, 2002
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
        > > > 9. A guard misses a jump shot, which is rebounded and stuck
        back
        > in
        > > > by a teammate. How much credit goes to the two players?
        > > >
        > >
        > > Negative credit for the guard, unless you think he was passing it
        > off
        > > the rim. Two credits for the rebounder - 1) regaining possession,
        > and
        > > 2) making the basket.
        >
        > One of the things I remember hearing about Dominique Wilkins and
        have
        > heard about Allen Iverson is that their shots are more often
        > rebounded by their own team because their teammates know that they
        > are going to shoot the ball. We already have put forth evidence (I
        > think, I know I did the work) showing that Iverson's presence does
        > help the Philly offense even though the boy sometimes can't hit the
        > side of a barn with his shot.

        A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following
        things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45% chance),
        the ball ends up in a teammate's hands (16% chance), or the ball goes
        to the opposing team (39% chance).

        Seen this way, a missed jump shot that's put back in by a teammate
        could be recast as a bad pass to a teammate who manages to score off
        this pass. Maybe one should allocate credit with this revised view of
        missed shots in mind, but I'm not yet sure.
      • HoopStudies
        ... they ... (I ... does ... the ... chance), ... goes ... This gets at what Gary Skoog did in one of James abstracts, where they assessed the expected runs
        Message 3 of 10 , Mar 29, 2002
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
          > >
          > > One of the things I remember hearing about Dominique Wilkins and
          > have
          > > heard about Allen Iverson is that their shots are more often
          > > rebounded by their own team because their teammates know that
          they
          > > are going to shoot the ball. We already have put forth evidence
          (I
          > > think, I know I did the work) showing that Iverson's presence
          does
          > > help the Philly offense even though the boy sometimes can't hit
          the
          > > side of a barn with his shot.
          >
          > A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following
          > things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45%
          chance),
          > the ball ends up in a teammate's hands (16% chance), or the ball
          goes
          > to the opposing team (39% chance).

          This gets at what Gary Skoog did in one of James' abstracts, where
          they assessed the expected runs for every given state and assigned
          credit/blame for transitions between those states.

          At the point before a shot, every possession is worth about 1 pt.
          After the shot, it could go to 2 pts with a made shot and end of
          possession, 3 pts with a made shot and end of possession, rare cases
          of >3 pts with or without continued possession, 0 pts with the
          probability of an offensive rebound (expected value of 1 pt after
          OR), 0 pts with probability of opponent getting the ball (expected
          value of 0 after DR). In the 0 pts with offensive rebound, you
          diminish the value of the missed shot by about 2/3 (assuming 1/3
          chance of OR), so, using relative to the mean credit (as Skoog did),
          the credit is -2/3 to the shooter who missed (bring expected points
          from 1 to 1/3), 2/3 to the offensive rebounder (who brought it back
          to 1), then 1 to the scorer (for going from 1 to 2). If this
          methodology is carried out in detail, you could modify the shooter-
          specific OR%, so that rather than diminishing Iverson's misses by
          2/3, you diminish them by 1/2 if you think that half of his misses
          are rebounded by the offense.

          Though in this case the rebounder and scorer are the same, note that
          there is more relative credit to the scorer (+1) than to the
          rebounder (+2/3). This may be in conflict with what the offensive
          rebound studies we did earlier here said, but I'd need to check.

          Dean Oliver
        • Michael K. Tamada
          ... [...] ... [...] This is how my model of basketball works. It can be used to generate means and standard deviations, but can even more directly be used to
          Message 4 of 10 , Mar 29, 2002
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            On Fri, 29 Mar 2002, HoopStudies wrote:

            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:

            [...]

            > > A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following
            > > things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45%
            > chance),
            > > the ball ends up in a teammate's hands (16% chance), or the ball
            > goes
            > > to the opposing team (39% chance).
            >
            > This gets at what Gary Skoog did in one of James' abstracts, where
            > they assessed the expected runs for every given state and assigned
            > credit/blame for transitions between those states.
            >
            > At the point before a shot, every possession is worth about 1 pt.
            > After the shot, it could go to 2 pts with a made shot and end of
            > possession, 3 pts with a made shot and end of possession, rare cases

            [...]

            This is how my model of basketball works. It can be used to generate
            means and standard deviations, but can even more directly be used to
            estimate win probabilities. The trouble is that the models make it easy
            and tempting to assign all the credit for an action to a player, e.g. the
            offensive rebounder gets the +2/3 that you describe, when some of the
            credit perhaps should go to teammates who blocked out (unlikely however in
            an offensive rebounding situation) and maybe some of the blame should go
            to the defensive rebounder who failed to block the guy out. So this model
            makes assignment of credit to players easy to do -- but not necessarily
            truly accurate.

            > Though in this case the rebounder and scorer are the same, note that
            > there is more relative credit to the scorer (+1) than to the
            > rebounder (+2/3). This may be in conflict with what the offensive
            > rebound studies we did earlier here said, but I'd need to check.

            No, scoring a field goal is clearly more valuable than grabbing an
            offensive rebound, even when the loss of possession is taken into account.
            Missing a field goal is the act that is approximately equal to an
            offensive rebound.


            --MKT
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