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Re: Assigning Credit to Players

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  • HoopStudies
    I won t say much yet on this, but I do want to introduce one aspect with regard to ... in ... off ... and ... One of the things I remember hearing about
    Message 1 of 10 , Mar 14 11:42 AM
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      I won't say much yet on this, but I do want to introduce one aspect
      with regard to

      > > 9. A guard misses a jump shot, which is rebounded and stuck back
      in
      > > by a teammate. How much credit goes to the two players?
      > >
      >
      > Negative credit for the guard, unless you think he was passing it
      off
      > the rim. Two credits for the rebounder - 1) regaining possession,
      and
      > 2) making the basket.

      One of the things I remember hearing about Dominique Wilkins and have
      heard about Allen Iverson is that their shots are more often
      rebounded by their own team because their teammates know that they
      are going to shoot the ball. We already have put forth evidence (I
      think, I know I did the work) showing that Iverson's presence does
      help the Philly offense even though the boy sometimes can't hit the
      side of a barn with his shot.

      Just something to consider.

      DeanO
    • McKibbin, Stuart
      I m not looking for formal studies, but rather gut feel from people on these, maybe with some explanation for the answers, maybe without. 1. The point guard
      Message 2 of 10 , Mar 14 6:41 PM
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        I'm not looking for formal studies, but rather gut feel from people
        on these, maybe with some explanation for the answers, maybe
        without.

        1. The point guard passes through the defense to a big man
        underneath the basket for a dunk. What percentage of the credit for
        the TEAM score should go to the passer vs. the scorer? Obviously,
        one player gets an assist and one gets the field goal, but,
        subjectively, should they split credit 50-50?

        If the pass is truly through the defense, that is, if the point guard had to see the opening and thread the ball at high velocity past defenders to the big man, (who then has to be able to handle the pass and not drop it) who dunks the ball without the defense being able to react then I'd give ALL of the credit to the PG. The PG made the play.

        2. A point guard passes to an unguarded mediocre shooter at the
        perimeter who makes a jump shot. How should credit be split here?

        NO credit should ever be given for making a basic pass. However, if the point guard penetrates and draws Mr. Mediocre's defender to him, and subsequently passes the ball to Mr. Mediocre who hits his wide open shot then PG should get ALL of the credit. Again, the PG made the play.


        9. A guard misses a jump shot, which is rebounded and stuck back in
        by a teammate. How much credit goes to the two players?

        I agree with others---what the hell did the guard do to earn credit? It sounds like his offensive rebounding teammate just bailed him out.

        10. A guard misses a jump shot, which is rebounded by a teammate.
        He passes back to the guard to restart the offense, which, after
        several passes, scores. How much credit should go to the offensive
        rebounder?

        No more than should be given a guy for grabbing a defensive rebound, or stealing the ball, or taking the ball out of the net. Or for that matter, to the opponent for kicking the ball out of bounds. In other words if the offensive rebound doesn't lead DIRECTLY to the basket, who cares how you got the ball?
      • dlirag
        ... back ... have ... A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45% chance),
        Message 3 of 10 , Mar 29 5:17 AM
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
          > > > 9. A guard misses a jump shot, which is rebounded and stuck
          back
          > in
          > > > by a teammate. How much credit goes to the two players?
          > > >
          > >
          > > Negative credit for the guard, unless you think he was passing it
          > off
          > > the rim. Two credits for the rebounder - 1) regaining possession,
          > and
          > > 2) making the basket.
          >
          > One of the things I remember hearing about Dominique Wilkins and
          have
          > heard about Allen Iverson is that their shots are more often
          > rebounded by their own team because their teammates know that they
          > are going to shoot the ball. We already have put forth evidence (I
          > think, I know I did the work) showing that Iverson's presence does
          > help the Philly offense even though the boy sometimes can't hit the
          > side of a barn with his shot.

          A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following
          things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45% chance),
          the ball ends up in a teammate's hands (16% chance), or the ball goes
          to the opposing team (39% chance).

          Seen this way, a missed jump shot that's put back in by a teammate
          could be recast as a bad pass to a teammate who manages to score off
          this pass. Maybe one should allocate credit with this revised view of
          missed shots in mind, but I'm not yet sure.
        • HoopStudies
          ... they ... (I ... does ... the ... chance), ... goes ... This gets at what Gary Skoog did in one of James abstracts, where they assessed the expected runs
          Message 4 of 10 , Mar 29 8:40 AM
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            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
            > >
            > > One of the things I remember hearing about Dominique Wilkins and
            > have
            > > heard about Allen Iverson is that their shots are more often
            > > rebounded by their own team because their teammates know that
            they
            > > are going to shoot the ball. We already have put forth evidence
            (I
            > > think, I know I did the work) showing that Iverson's presence
            does
            > > help the Philly offense even though the boy sometimes can't hit
            the
            > > side of a barn with his shot.
            >
            > A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following
            > things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45%
            chance),
            > the ball ends up in a teammate's hands (16% chance), or the ball
            goes
            > to the opposing team (39% chance).

            This gets at what Gary Skoog did in one of James' abstracts, where
            they assessed the expected runs for every given state and assigned
            credit/blame for transitions between those states.

            At the point before a shot, every possession is worth about 1 pt.
            After the shot, it could go to 2 pts with a made shot and end of
            possession, 3 pts with a made shot and end of possession, rare cases
            of >3 pts with or without continued possession, 0 pts with the
            probability of an offensive rebound (expected value of 1 pt after
            OR), 0 pts with probability of opponent getting the ball (expected
            value of 0 after DR). In the 0 pts with offensive rebound, you
            diminish the value of the missed shot by about 2/3 (assuming 1/3
            chance of OR), so, using relative to the mean credit (as Skoog did),
            the credit is -2/3 to the shooter who missed (bring expected points
            from 1 to 1/3), 2/3 to the offensive rebounder (who brought it back
            to 1), then 1 to the scorer (for going from 1 to 2). If this
            methodology is carried out in detail, you could modify the shooter-
            specific OR%, so that rather than diminishing Iverson's misses by
            2/3, you diminish them by 1/2 if you think that half of his misses
            are rebounded by the offense.

            Though in this case the rebounder and scorer are the same, note that
            there is more relative credit to the scorer (+1) than to the
            rebounder (+2/3). This may be in conflict with what the offensive
            rebound studies we did earlier here said, but I'd need to check.

            Dean Oliver
          • Michael K. Tamada
            ... [...] ... [...] This is how my model of basketball works. It can be used to generate means and standard deviations, but can even more directly be used to
            Message 5 of 10 , Mar 29 8:03 PM
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              On Fri, 29 Mar 2002, HoopStudies wrote:

              > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:

              [...]

              > > A shot can be seen as a pass that results in one of the following
              > > things happening: 2 or 3 points are immediately scored (45%
              > chance),
              > > the ball ends up in a teammate's hands (16% chance), or the ball
              > goes
              > > to the opposing team (39% chance).
              >
              > This gets at what Gary Skoog did in one of James' abstracts, where
              > they assessed the expected runs for every given state and assigned
              > credit/blame for transitions between those states.
              >
              > At the point before a shot, every possession is worth about 1 pt.
              > After the shot, it could go to 2 pts with a made shot and end of
              > possession, 3 pts with a made shot and end of possession, rare cases

              [...]

              This is how my model of basketball works. It can be used to generate
              means and standard deviations, but can even more directly be used to
              estimate win probabilities. The trouble is that the models make it easy
              and tempting to assign all the credit for an action to a player, e.g. the
              offensive rebounder gets the +2/3 that you describe, when some of the
              credit perhaps should go to teammates who blocked out (unlikely however in
              an offensive rebounding situation) and maybe some of the blame should go
              to the defensive rebounder who failed to block the guy out. So this model
              makes assignment of credit to players easy to do -- but not necessarily
              truly accurate.

              > Though in this case the rebounder and scorer are the same, note that
              > there is more relative credit to the scorer (+1) than to the
              > rebounder (+2/3). This may be in conflict with what the offensive
              > rebound studies we did earlier here said, but I'd need to check.

              No, scoring a field goal is clearly more valuable than grabbing an
              offensive rebound, even when the loss of possession is taken into account.
              Missing a field goal is the act that is approximately equal to an
              offensive rebound.


              --MKT
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